Another Rabbit...I wager this is not a beat! "Xylem's Strategic Acquisition of Evoqua Boosts Revenue by 40% - A Deep Dive into Water Technology Innovation"
Xylem's acquisition of Evoqua Water Technologies for $7.5 billion, an all-stock deal, seems to be a strategic move. This acquisition was valued at $52.89 per Evoqua share, a 29% premium based on the companies' closing prices before the deal. Evoqua Water's extensive customer base in high-growth sectors like life sciences, microelectronics, power, and food and beverage, along with their work on emerging contaminant remediation, aligns well with Xylem’s vision.
Xylem's stock price has risen from the low $100s to $140, showing investor confidence in the acquisition and the company’s future prospects. Since March 2024, Xylem's revenues have increased by 40%, but accounts receivable have risen by 46%, which might indicate slower collections or extended credit terms to customers. However, the cash position hasn't seen similar growth, which could point to liquidity management challenges.
The substantial increase in goodwill by 174% reflects the premium paid for Evoqua and indicates significant intangible assets, such as customer relationships and technological expertise. As Xylem reports its earnings, the market will be keen to see if these strategic moves translate into sustained revenue growth, improved cash flows, and effective integration of Evoqua.
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Revenue
Earnings Season to Show if Big Tech Stocks Can Justify AI HypeUpper echelon of tech realm is expected to report the most profits since early 2022 as the bar is set high thanks to the big promise of artificial intelligence.
Earnings season is about to hit fever pitch with the biggest names in the corporate world getting ready to deliver spring-quarter financial updates. The bar is set high thanks to the promise of artificial intelligence to rewire how businesses operate, spend and make money.
How high exactly? All S&P 500 companies collectively are predicted to knock out the biggest increase in profits in more than two years — year-on-year earnings growth is pinned at 8.8% for the quarter ended June, the highest since the first quarter of 2022.
Froth or Not?
Stakes are high. The upcoming string of earnings data will show whether big tech high-flyers can justify the AI hype that has propelled stocks to record after record . The S&P 500 has notched more than 36 all-time closing highs this year and is sitting on gains of more than 18% since it started trading in January.
The Big Dogs
Apparently, optimism is sweeping left and right, lifting valuations of companies big and small. A handful of them have been singled out as the biggest group of winners. And — you guessed it — they’re all involved in the AI narrative.
Chipmaking giant Nvidia (ticker: NVDA ) and a clique of big tech heavyweights are lined up to show if their earnings and revenue guidance will catch up to the sky-high valuations. Nvidia has more than doubled this year, soaring above $3 trillion in market value. Briefly, it became the world’s largest company . Its peers Microsoft (ticker: MSFT ), Facebook parent Meta (ticker: META ), Apple (ticker: AAPL ) and Alphabet (ticker: GOOGL ) have rocketed to records this year as well.
Heavy Concentration
The 10 biggest companies in the S&P 500 fill up about 37% of its worth, which presently gravitates toward $48 trillion. This said, these 10 titans of capitalism contribute 24% to the broad-based index’s earnings — the highest ratio since 1990.
To keep going with the numbers, before we dive into what’s coming over the next few weeks, the S&P 500 companies are trading at 21.4 times their projected earnings over the next 12 months. For comparison, the average multiple for a five-year stretch is 19.7.
It gets even more interesting when you zoom in and double click on five tech titans — Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Meta and Amazon. Their price/earnings multiples have ballooned to an average of 34 times projections, up from 28 times. The AI bellwether, Nvidia, has soared to 41 times, from 24 times in January.
Against that backdrop, analysts are quick to point out that a correction in stock prices may loom large if these corporate giants can’t beat out their earnings projections. Is there room for disappointment?
Stacked Up Against Expectations
Let’s go around the table and see what’s coming over the next few weeks. We’ll keep it tight so we’ll only look into the elite Magnificent Seven club .
July 23
Microsoft (ticker: MSFT )
Year-to-date performance: 23%
Revenue guidance: $64 billion
Alphabet (ticker: GOOGL )
Year-to-date performance: 33%
Revenue expectations: $79 billion
Tesla (ticker: TSLA )
Year-to-date performance: 0% ( find out the reasons ).
Revenue expectations: $20.16 billion
July 31
Meta (ticker: META )
Year-to-date performance: 44%
Revenue guidance: $36.5 billion to $39 billion
August 1
Apple (ticker: AAPL )
Year-to-date performance: 24%
Revenue expectations: $84 billion
Amazon (ticker: AMZN ) (date unconfirmed)
Year-to-date performance: 30%
Revenue guidance: $144 billion to $149 billion
August 21
Nvidia (ticker: NVDA ) (date unconfirmed)
Year-to-date performance: 168%
Revenue guidance: $28 billion
Let's Hear from You!
Are we going to see another blockbuster quarter of record revenue and profits? Or is the AI hype overblown and could this mean big tech may let us down? Share your thoughts below!
Palantir's Stock Soared: AI Demand Propels Revenue Beat
Palantir Technologies ( NYSE:PLTR ) has sent ripples through the financial markets with its staggering fourth-quarter earnings report, igniting a surge in its stock price by over 19%. The company's robust performance, fueled by burgeoning demand for its Artificial Intelligence (AI) platforms, has exceeded analyst expectations and set the stage for continued growth in 2024. Let's delve into the details of Palantir's ( NYSE:PLTR )remarkable ascent and what lies ahead for this tech powerhouse.
Unprecedented Growth Amid AI Boom:
Palantir's ( NYSE:PLTR ) fourth-quarter revenue soared to $608.4 million, marking a substantial 20% increase compared to the previous year. This impressive surge in revenue underscores the company's stronghold in the AI sector, with CEO Alex Karp highlighting the unyielding demand for large language models in the U.S. market. The expansion of Palantir's ( NYSE:PLTR ) AI Technology Platform (AIP) has been nothing short of extraordinary, evident in the staggering sixfold increase in AI technology pilots conducted over the past year.
Driving Forces Behind Success:
The success story of Palantir ( NYSE:PLTR ) is multifaceted, with several key factors driving its meteoric rise. Firstly, the company's strategic focus on developing cutting-edge AI solutions tailored to meet the evolving needs of various industries has been instrumental. Palantir's ( NYSE:PLTR ) ability to harness the power of AI to unlock valuable insights from vast datasets has positioned it as a vital player in sectors ranging from defense to commercial enterprises.
Furthermore, Palantir's( NYSE:PLTR ) impressive growth in its U.S. commercial division, with a staggering 70% year-over-year revenue increase, underscores its ability to penetrate new markets and expand its customer base. The company's commercial customer count surged by 55%, a testament to the widespread adoption of its AI-driven solutions across diverse sectors.
Projections and Outlook:
Looking ahead, Palantir ( NYSE:PLTR ) remains bullish about its prospects, with revenue guidance for the first quarter of 2024 ranging between $612 million and $616 million. While this falls slightly short of analysts' expectations, the company's full-year revenue projection of $2.65 billion to $2.67 billion aligns closely with Wall Street estimates. This bullish outlook reflects Palantir's confidence in its ability to capitalize on the burgeoning demand for AI platforms and cement its position as a leader in the industry.
Charting the Course:
From a technical standpoint, Palantir's ( NYSE:PLTR ) stock has displayed a remarkable upward trajectory, trading within an ascending channel since early August. While recent price action has encountered resistance near the 50-day moving average, investors remain optimistic about the stock's potential to breach the channel's top trendline, currently hovering around $22.80. Palantir ( NYSE:PLTR ) could be a promising investment opportunity in the expanding realm of AI technology, with potential gains following the earnings report.
Conclusion:
Palantir's ( NYSE:PLTR ) stellar performance in the fourth quarter underscores the company's unwavering commitment to innovation and its ability to capitalize on the growing demand for AI-driven solutions. With robust revenue growth, expanding market presence, and bullish projections for the future, Palantir ( NYSE:PLTR ) is poised to continue its ascent as a trailblazer in the realm of AI technology. As investors eagerly await further developments, Palantir ( NYSE:PLTR ) remains a compelling choice for those seeking exposure to the transformative power of artificial intelligence.
NIO - are the fundamentals good enough?Analysts have adjusted earnings estimates and thus, an earnings beat does not always translate to good prospects for some of the businesses:
Earnings Estimate Management
From the earnings forecast by Investing above, we can note the following:
The coming EPS forecast (for the period ending 06/2023) is worse than the previous period ending 03/2023.
In fact, the EPS forecast is expected to be the worst at record -2.96 since 06/2022.
For the revenue forecast, it is expected to be lower than the previous quarter. It stands at 9.16B compared to the forecast of 11.93B from the previous quarter ending 03/2023.
This is in fact the lowest revenue forecast since 06/2022.
In the event that NIO beats both EPS & revenue forecast in the coming earnings, is the company doing better? In my opinion, it is a “NO”.
Beating such an estimate is not something to brag about as the company remains unprofitable with “falling” sales. It can be too early to call this a falling trend but the quarterly signs are there.
Conclusion
Before we embrace any content from news agencies or investing portals, let us do our due diligence.
One quarter does not define a trend and thus, looking at the business as a whole from afar can help to put some objectivity and remove the impact of seasonality. This will help to put things in a better context as we even out peaks from new launches and service offerings.
Moncler: A Stylish Investment on the RiseHello investors,
In this report, we dissect the financial intricacies of a prominent stock, leaving no detail unexplored. From market capitalization and price-to-earnings ratio to revenue conversion and cash reserves, we analyze every facet to equip you with strategic insights. We'll go beyond the numbers and charts, painting a vivid picture of the company's financial health. Moreover will be also sharing with you at the end what is my personal expert opinion and future outlook for the financial details of Moncler.
Moncler is a luxury fashion company with a market capitalization of 16.875 billion EUR. It currently trades at a Price to Earnings (P/E) ratio of 31.05, which indicates that investors are willing to pay 31.05 times the company's earnings per share (EPS). The current Basic EPS (TTM) stands at 2.01 EUR.
Now, let's dive into the Revenue to Profit Conversion for the year 2022:
- Total revenue: 100%
- Gross profit: 68%
- EBITDA: 40%
- Net income: 23%
The Revenue to Profit Conversion indicates that Moncler is generating a reasonable amount of revenue, but the conversion of that revenue into profits is somewhat lower. This could be an area of concern for investors, as a higher gross profit and net income conversion would generally be preferred.
Next, let's examine Moncler's financial health based on key financial metrics for the years 2018 to 2022:
- Debt: The company's debt has increased over the years, reaching 912.78 million EUR in 2022. This increasing debt level is a point of caution and needs to be monitored closely, as it may affect the company's financial flexibility.
- Free Cash Flow: Moncler has shown a fluctuating trend in free cash flow, with significant variations from year to year. While the H1 2023 free cash flow stands at 492.72 million EUR, this could impact the company's ability to invest in growth opportunities or return value to shareholders.
- Cash and Equivalents: Moncler has maintained a relatively stable level of cash and equivalents over the years, which provides a degree of liquidity and financial strength.
Now, let's analyze the Financial Position based on the figures from 2022:
- Short-term Assets: 1.62 billion EUR
- Short-term Liabilities: 963.71 million EUR
- Long-term Assets: 3.02 billion EUR
- Long-term Liabilities: 773.31 million EUR
Moncler's financial position seems relatively strong, with a higher value of assets compared to liabilities, both in the short and long term. However, it's important to keep an eye on the company's debt levels and how they might impact its financial position in the future.
Regarding the company's earnings per share (EPS) history and projections:
- EPS in 2020: 1.18 EUR
- EPS in 2021: 1.53 EUR
- EPS in 2022: 2.24 EUR
- H1 2023: 0.54 EUR
Moncler has shown an increasing trend in EPS, which is generally positive. However, the H1 2023 EPS has seen a decline compared to the previous year. This dip could be due to various factors, and it's crucial to closely monitor the reasons behind it to assess its potential impact on future performance.
Now, let's review the financial statements for H1 2022, H2 2022, and H1 2023:
- H1 2022:
- Total revenue: 918.38 million EUR
- Gross profit: 576.21 million EUR
- Operating income: 180.17 million EUR
- Pretax income: 168.54 million EUR
- Net income: 211.25 million EUR
- H2 2022:
- Total revenue: 1.68 billion EUR
- Gross profit: 1.19 billion EUR
- Operating income: 594.38 million EUR
- Pretax income: 578.79 million EUR
- Net income: 395.44 million EUR
- H1 2023:
- Total revenue: 1.14 billion EUR
- Gross profit: 731.59 million EUR
- Operating income: 217.79 million EUR
- Pretax income: 206.47 million EUR
- Net income: 145.35 million EUR
Moncler's financial statements show an overall positive trend in revenue, gross profit, and net income. However, the H1 2023 figures indicate a decline in net income compared to H2 2022. It's essential to assess the reasons behind this decline and evaluate whether it's a short-term setback or a potential cause for concern.
Future Outlook:
As for me, my rating for Moncler stock would be cautiously optimistic. The company has demonstrated strong financials, stable cash reserves, and a consistent revenue stream. The increasing EPS until 2022 indicates growth and profitability.
However, there are some concerns that need to be closely monitored. The rising debt level and fluctuating free cash flow could impact the company's ability to invest in growth initiatives or handle unforeseen economic challenges.
The decline in H1 2023 net income raises questions about the company's performance during this period. To make a more accurate assessment, it's crucial to investigate the reasons behind this decline and evaluate the company's strategies for addressing potential challenges.
In conclusion, Moncler appears to be a solid luxury fashion company with growth potential, but potential investors should conduct thorough research and analysis to make informed decisions. The financial health and future outlook should be continually monitored, considering the evolving market conditions and economic landscape.
Disclaimer : Please note that the future behavior of the stock is subject to market volatility, industry trends, and global economic conditions. I highly recommend you guys staying updated with the company's quarterly reports and financial statements for a more accurate evaluation of its performance and prospects. Additionally, all of the information that I used can be found in the trading view app related to MONC financial details.
The end of the SaaSacre and the rise of generative AIWe recently had the pleasure of speaking with Janelle Teng of Bessemer Venture Partners (BVP). Janelle is a vice president at BVP, focused primarily on cloud software, infrastructure and developer platforms. WisdomTree began working with BVP in 2020 to launch WisdomTree’s Cloud Computing Strategy which tracks the BVP Nasdaq Emerging Cloud Index. This blog is a summary of the key takeaways from the discussion.
The SaaSacre1 of 2022
We had to start by recognising the feeling of our current environment, which comes largely from what BVP has termed the ‘SaaSacre’ of 2022. What is a SaaSacre? If one pulls up the return of the BVP Nasdaq Emerging Cloud Index during 2022 and sees a figure worse than -40%, then they will see it – that drop is the SaaSacre. The market underwent a complete adjustment to valuations across the board, going from peak levels observed in late 2022 to levels much lower reflecting, among other things, a higher general interest rate environment brought on by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Investors in software-as-a-service (SaaS) companies tended to see an opposite relationship during 2022, where, as interest rates rose, SaaS valuations fell and vice versa2. While it is logical that companies that expect to deliver cash flows far into the future would see their valuations impacted by interest rates, the relationship is not always so stark.
The 3 archetypes of COVID-19 shocks on growth S-curves
The S-curve is a commonly used heuristic to help investors relate time, plotted on the horizontal axis, to adoption, plotted on the vertical axis. A steeper S-curve = faster adoption. An S-curve moved vertically upwards = a larger adoption. The COVID-19 pandemic was a shock that changed the position of the S-curves of various SaaS companies. If we can understand at least a few archetypes of how this occurred, it can help us to better evaluate how companies are doing now, largely on the other side of the shock. We show these examples in Figure 13:
Temporary exponential growth from illusion of market opportunity: this shock would appear as a bulge upwards in the upper portion of the S-curve—telling us that adoption picked up rapidly for a period of time—before dropping back to the original trend.
Unsustainable exponential growth due to acceleration within original market opportunity: this shock would appear as a steeper S-curve, with the rising slope pulled further to the left telling us that adoption was occurring suddenly, faster—with the top level peaking at the same place as originally intended, but just arriving there sooner. Many people are familiar with Zoom Video Communications, and this company’s pandemic experience seems to largely be consistent with this archetype.
New growth baseline from expanded market opportunity: while it may be easy for CEOs to tell us all a story about how they now have a ‘new growth baseline’, it is far more difficult to actually deliver and execute on than it is to say. If there is one area where this happened, it was in food delivery, in that after the pandemic the general person thinks differently about using certain services, be it Uber Eats or DoorDash.
The difficulty of making predictions
In thematic topics, it is frequently difficult to make predictions about growth rates and the ultimate sizes of given markets. In the conversation with Janelle, we talked about an example of some forecasts that Gartner had made regarding Worldwide Public Cloud Service Revenues4.
In April of 2019, the prediction for 2022 was $331 billion.
In April of 2022, the prediction for 2022 was $495 billion, significantly higher.
Initial public offerings (IPO’s) and mergers and acquisitions (M&A)
We spent time talking about what we were seeing, or put more accurately weren’t seeing, in 2022, and that was IPOs. A significant benefit of speaking with Janelle and BVP is that there is a sense of history. We can recognise that 2021 was an outlier year, in that the aggregate value of software IPOs priced was in the vicinity of $28 billion. Even without the historic shift in policy at the Fed, Figure 2 shows that matching anything close to 2021’s result was going to be difficult.
Within the category of corporate actions, sometimes you see M&As (Adobe’s intended purchase of Figma was a big example) and sometimes you see private equity players making investments. So-called ‘take-privates’ in 2022 were extremely active, and we saw many such examples through the year.
Growth vs profitability
One of the questions that we hear often regards what is more important, growth or profitability? In recent years, maybe the real answer is, ‘it depends when you ask.’ It’s very clear that those of us following the software space in 2018 and 2019 saw that growth was of the utmost importance. In 2022, on the other hand, we were hearing a lot more about profitability.
Janelle was able to walk through some work done by BVP within the 2023 State of the Cloud report, the gist of which was, when considering the impact on valuations5:
November 2021: revenue growth was about six times as impactful on valuations as profitability.
October 2022: the importance of revenue growth and profitability were roughly equal in their impact on valuations.
April 2023: revenue growth was about two times as impactful on valuations as profitability.
The true conclusion: It is never all growth and it is never all profitability, but it is important to be aware of how the focus on these measures can ebb and flow across time.
Generative AI is going to be everywhere
Janelle and I spoke the day after Microsoft reported its quarterly earnings for the period ended March 31, 2023. We briefly touched on this quote from Amy Hood, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer6:
“In Azure, we expect revenue growth to be 26% to 27% in constant currency, including roughly 1 point from AI services."
We can also note this statement from Satya Nadella, CEO7:
“Our Azure OpenAI Service brings together advanced models, including ChatGPT and GPT-4, with the enterprise capabilities of Azure. From Coursera and Grammarly, to Mercedes-Benz and Shell, we now have more than 2,500 Azure OpenAI Service customers, up 10X quarter-over-quarter.”
Janelle and I discussed how the big companies, in this case represented by Microsoft, are important, in that they tell us something about broader enterprise consumption and spending, leading to better clarity on the environment that the more ‘emerging’ cloud companies have to operate within. Microsoft is sending a big signal on generative artificial intelligence (AI), and we believe we will continue to see it spreading across many different companies.
Bottom line: lots of growth catalysts for those with more time
Even if we recognise the uncertainty in the current 2023 economic environment, those investors with a longer time horizon can take advantage, positioning for important growth drivers looking forward. It is rare that companies with the largest market capitalisations in the world are able to announce something that could have a material impact on revenue growth, but that is just what generative AI seems to be as we write these words.
Sources
1 SaaSacre is a term from BVP, combining ‘SaaS’ and massacre, to help illustrate in words the tough performance environment observed in 2022.
2 Source: bvp-atlas/state-of-the-cloud-2023
3 Source: nextbigteng.substack the-reckoning-of-pandemic-tech-darlings
4 Source: nextbigteng.substack.com the-reckoning-of-pandemic-tech-darlings
5 Source: bvp atlas/state-of-the-cloud-2023?from=feature
6 Source: Microsoft earnings FY23Q3
7 Source: Microsoft earnings FY23Q3
Are cloud computing companies offering a second bite Are cloud computing companies offering a second bite at the cherry?
On 18 December 2022, Jason Lemkin posted a blog titled “Right Back to Where We Were 3 Years Ago.” It caught my attention or those of us who have been following the performance of software-as-a-service (SaaS) cloud computing companies. It tells us, quite clearly, that the impact of the ‘pandemic pull-forward’ of demand for software consumption is completely removed from the 3-year performance number.
To us, it means that it is time to ask a simple question: is the market giving us a ‘do-over’, meaning that we can now access companies at something similar to ‘pre-pandemic’ levels, or is the jig up and the cloud business model doomed to fade away into the sunset?
SaaS companies have evolved significantly since 2019
In Figure 2, we wanted to look at valuation over the same period. Even if the share price performances of the underlying companies have run up and then fallen back in most cases—leading to the observed performance of the BVP Nasdaq Emerging Cloud Index—we have not been seeing companies reporting widespread negative year-over-year revenue growth. Instead, we’ve tended to see the revenue growth ranges shifting downwards, with the median figure for the Index now closer to the 30% level, whereas it was higher than 40% for a period of time ending roughly one year ago.
If prices have dropped but sales have continued to grow, it’s possible to see that the valuation opportunity at present is better than it was in December of 2019, 3-years ago. In Figure 2, we see that the price-to-sales ratio was 7.0-8.0x during this period, whereas presently it is below 4.5x. We agree that these stocks should be less expensive today, in that the risk today is higher and the cost of capital is also higher. We can’t know with certainty if the current price levels perfectly encapsulate this risk, but it is simply important to know that the risk does look like it is being accounted for.
In our opinion, within software-as-a-service companies, one must always marry looking at valuation with looking at revenue growth. Many of these firms, as yet, do not carry through positive net income to the bottom lines of their income statements, so if one can look at a reasonable fundamental, sales seems to make the most sense at this point in the development of the megatrend. We do view this as a megatrend, which means the time horizon we are thinking about is not the next 12 months or couple of years, but something that should unfold over a decade.
Growth, on the other hand, has come down more slowly than valuation. Now, this is ‘revenue growth’, not earnings growth or cash flow growth, but we note that companies are still growing, and some are still delivering results ahead of Wall Street’s expectations. If the Nasdaq 100 is growing something close to 10% and the BVP Nasdaq Emerging Cloud Index is growing something close to 30%, is this a worthwhile trade-off? The Nasdaq Index represents, predominantly, proven, established businesses, with some of the world’s most valuable companies, measured by their market capitalisations, getting the top weights. This risk profiles of these groups of stocks should be quite different, but if we are able to think not of the next 12 months but rather the next 10 years, does the difference in risk potentially make sense?
We do feel comfortable to conclude there is a better chance to make sense at the present valuation trade-off than it did at the near-term market high observed in November 2021, even if it’s impossible to know the future with certainty.
Where the rubber meets the road: what do SaaS companies do?
In our opinion, no discussion of cloud computing or SaaS companies is complete without giving some treatment to what the companies do. SaaS is just a business model—a way to provide/consume software that competes with other ways to provide/consume software. Do people prefer subscription models, or would they want to go back to a world where they need to buy a DVD and physically hold and use their own copy? If the software is necessary and valuable, and the company can execute their strategy, we have confidence in the long term. If, on the other hand, the software is discretionary and more ‘nice-to-have’ than needed, then there could be more risks. We see the following functional groupings as a starting point:
Cybersecurity: companies like CrowdStrike, SentinelOne, Cloudflare, Zscaler and Darktrace focus on cybersecurity. Subscribing to cybersecurity protection makes sense because we know that the attackers are always evolving. Stagnant protection would eventually lead to limited protection. Many SaaS cybersecurity firms are not necessarily trading at single digit price-to-sales multiples, but it’s also the case that cybersecurity has received massive attention from investors in 2022, largely due to the Russia/Ukraine conflict.
Software development: companies like Twilio, Atlassian and New Relic are involved with running platforms useful to software development. Twilio and Atlassian have faced challenges in their share price performance during their most recent quarterly earnings reporting periods. However, we believe that the service they provide for software development remains critical.
Business services: a company like Bill.com is very interesting, in that it is an example of a service that helps small and mid-sized firms manage their expenses. It’s a good case to remember because companies will tend to employ services like this to create efficiencies and save costs and time. We couldn’t ever say this company (or others like it) would be immune to recessionary pressures, but we find it important to note that it also may not be the first subscription to cut either.
Cloud computing and software-as-a-service companies do not have long histories of operation where we can look back at their performance during the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-09, and we’d have to assume that, if they were around in 2001 and 2002, their performance as the ‘tech bubble’ burst would have been significantly negative. To say these companies are completely resilient to recession is not a thesis that has been proving out in 2022. However, we’d note that their revenues are still growing, so it’s not the case either that these companies immediately reverted to negative revenue growth and collapsing fundamentals. If people view this as a megatrend, as we do at WisdomTree, the current period in the coming months could be a much more interesting entry point than anything we have seen recently, even if near-term performance could still be challenging.
IS IT Finally Time To Buy NIO !!!. Nio is one of the dominant players in China's hot electric vehicle (EV) market , and the company had to suspend operations at a couple of factories last month as lockdowns were imposed.
Fearing Nio's production and deliveries to take a beating, investors dumped the EV stock -- Nio shares lost nearly 33% value in just one month through Nov. 9. One day later, Nio proved its critics wrong.
The EV manufacturer beat third-quarter revenue estimates and sees significant growth in car deliveries in the coming months. And Nio's growth plans are even bigger. So if you've been watching Nio stock plunge this year but haven't pulled the trigger yet, it's finally time to buy the EV stock.
Now Backed by 29% higher deliveries, Nio generated roughly $1.8 billion in revenue in Q3, up 32.6% year over year
WHY WE DECIDE IN REVENUE TO BUY NIO AGAIN ?
Nio is planning to launch five new models in 2023 , is still eyeing a mass-market brand , and expects its gross margin to hit 20% to 25% next year if battery costs fall.
The company has a lot of cash, so it has the leeway to invest billions of dollars in the research and development of new models. That's what the company plans to do to remain a prominent player in the world's largest EV market, China, even as it expands its footprint in Europe. Europe is also the only international market Nio has ventured into so far.
The markets may expect Nio to grow even faster, but Nio's confidence in delivering a record number of vehicles and growing its revenue by 75% to 94% in the fourth quarter despite macro headwinds is nothing to sneeze at. That alone should reinstate investors' faith in this EV stock that has slumped so dramatically to prices last seen more than two years ago.
from technical view we see that stock price is going to hit 30$ in 2023 as primary target
***All of the above are published for educational purpose which is not an investment recommendation
REVENUE RESEARCH
AMMAN / JORDAN
November 12
META needs to cut back on R&DR&D spending on the metaverse and other projects is eating into net income. Revenue is still impressive. People still use Facebook and Instagram. With a P/E of 8.649 nearing the bottom of a parallel channel drawn on the log scale chart, I can’t help but think there’s an options play or even a great long-term buying opportunity waiting to be had some time over the next 6 months. If Meta stops wasting money on pie-in-the-sky R&D endeavors, their financials will look a lot better. I need to further analyze the technicals to try and find support and anticipate timing but for now this is my pre-assessment of the situation.
What happened to Amazon today?Today, after the market closed, Amazon released its Q3 earnings and revenue, as well as other financials. It outperformed earnings per share by a significant margin, so why did Amazon drop 14% in after-hours trading? Well, the answer lies in a few things which I will cover today.
1. Amazon Web Services (Includes cloud computing, a major component of Amazon's revenue) only brought in 20.5 Bil, compared to forecast of 21 BIl.
2. Due to the above reason, Amazon's revenue was lower than expectations of 127.63 Bil, only achieving 127.1 Bil, with much, much slower growth compared to the previous quarterly earnings and revenue.
3. Amazons sluggish growth in revenue can only mean one thing -- A weaking Consumer. And as the Fed hikes interest rates quickly, Amazon's revenue may go down along with inflation.
4. Guidance from Amazon shows a weak Holiday quarter (weak sales and revenue)
So, this is just an update on the latest news to keep you updated. If you want me to continue this type of posts, please comment!
NVIDIA Seeking For A New Support After Revenue Misses Nvidia drops after 2Q prelim revenue misses estimate. The company released preliminary earnings that show second-quarter revenue of $6.70 billion, below its initial outlook of $8.10 billion.
But looking at the price chart it clearly unfolded five waves up from the lows, so it appears that stock it's making just an a-b-c pullback within uptrend. Ideal support is around 165 area.
FORD MTRFord is one of the greatest companies in the world
Finally price crossing up the channel which mean it’s technically Targeting :18$
Price now :12.9
We are waiting to the retest at : 11.50$ then we see that it will be targeting 18$
—Revenue Research —
—— Not an investment recommendation ——
- Revenue Team / Jordan
What to expect with SQ stock earnings reportBlock Inc (NYSE: SQ), the point-of-sale payment provider formerly known as Square, is reporting its Q4 2022 earnings this Thursday, February 24.
What to expect with SQ stock earnings report?
The usual market dynamic of ‘good report = stock price rise’ and ‘bad report = stock price fall’ may not be entirely appropriate to expect after the report’s release.
As we have seen over the past month, a favourable earnings report does not necessarily mean that the market will respond favourably in turn. For one, when Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) reported its impressive Q4 2022 results on February 16, its stock proceeded to sell-off. As of writing, NVDA is down 12% since its earnings call as investors were all too happy to overlook its earnings beats and strong guidance for the next quarter.
On the flip side, an unfavourable report can sink SQ stock considerably more than at any time in the past. Investors have little patience for growth tech stocks at the moment, with US Federal Reserve rate hikes just around the corner and post-covid revenue surges seemingly coming to an end.
Will SQ suffer a similar fate to PYPL?
PayPal (NASDAQ: PYPL), a leading competitor of Block, reported its own Q4 2021 earnings report three weeks ago, on the first day in February this year. While PYPL beat earnings expectations, its dismal guidance for Q1 2022 has helped tank the stock price 46% in 2022, YTD.
As of writing, SQ is not far off PYPL’s shocking price retreat. SQ’s stock price has lost 40% of its value, YTD.
An unfavourable report may push this loss into the 50s or even the 60s. Tech stocks dropping more than 20% in a single trading day is not unheard of this year, as you may have seen Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: FB) trim 25% (USD 230 billion) from its market cap on February 3.
Is there a buying opportunity with SQ stock?
According to several investment banks and analysts, including Deutsche Bank, Credit Suisse, SeekingAlpa and MarketBeat, an even greater rout in the SQ’s share price may set investors up for a great long-term buying opportunity. SeekingAlpha and MarketBeat have price targets in the mid USD 200 range, which represent substantial upside potential.
Predictor on Federal Interest PaymentsThis chart provides a clear "prediction" on tomorrow's Federal Interest payments (on the debt) which sits at a bit more than 20% of tax revenue. This chart uses the debt and the US10Y to show where payments are going. It's obviously very accurate but the problem is, the next move up is going to detrimental to US government solvency. Higher payments come with higher interest rates!
Good luck.
Percent of Revenue for Interest Payments vs FEDFUNDs DifferenceThis chart shows the difference between the percent of federal tax receipts used to pay interest on the national debt (currently around 20% of tax receipts) and the FEDFUNDS rate. This difference has been growing through the years as the debt grows larger and people are less willing to buy treasuries at low interest rates. Even with historically low interest rates in the present day, the debt burden is large enough to over come this.
The effect of the FEDFUNDS rate on government expenditure will continue to grow with time. Even at an effective rate of 0%, the interest payments on the debt continues to grow. There is a clear upward trend on payments despite a near 0% FEDFUNDS rate. Increasing the FEDFUNDS rate will be detrimental to US government solvency. Inflation or default seem to be the two options available. Good luck, Fed people.
Percent of Revenue for Interest Payments vs FEDFUNDs RatioThis chart attempts to show the ratio between the percent of federal tax receipts used to pay interest on the national debt (currently around 20% of tax receipts) and the FEDFUNDS rate. This ratio has been growing through the years as the debt grows larger and people are less willing to buy treasuries at low interest rates. Even with historically low interest rates in the present day, the debt burden is large enough to over come this.
The effect of the FEDFUNDS rate on government expenditure will continue to grow with time. If inflation keeps up and rates are raised we could see even more than 50% of tax receipts going to pay the interest on the national debt. The ratio increases with time, which means that the effect of FEDFUNDS will have more impact on government interest payments.
Another way to see this impact is through looking at FRED:A091RC1Q027SBEA/FRED:W006RC1Q027SBEA-FRED:FEDFUNDS/100
MDB MongoDB revenue increased 50% YoYMongoDB's fiscal third-quarter revenue increased 50% year over year.
Revenue growth rate increasing from 39% growth in the first quarter of fiscal 2022 to 44% in fiscal Q2 and now 50% in fiscal Q3.
MongoDB's 50% revenue growth put total revenue for fiscal Q3 at $227 million.
This was far beyond analysts' average forecast for revenue of $205 million during the period. (fool.com)
With this growth rate and cloud-based database needed for the upcoming metaverses, i think MDB MongoDB can reach all time high by the end of the year.
Steel Partners $SPLP, technicals over fundamentalsSteel Partners is one of the leaders in the acquisitions business and with a well diversified portfolio reported an increase in revenue of +18.70%, as compared to the same period in the prior year. Also published an increase in EPS of +24%, but its net income and net margins decreased. This aren't the best fundamental siganls but at least has two quarters in a row with revenue growth.
Now the techniclas have all that I look for. With a IBD RS rating of 99, high volume in up days and low volume in down days, and still in the breakout zone I decided to buy 1/4 of my postion sizing. I decided to start small because the market environment is still bad, and the stock hasn't make a new all time high. I plan to add to my position at the breakout above $38.50 and if it follows through.
I'd like to add that maybe, one of the main reasons of the recent rise of NYSE:SPLP is because of the increase in value of NASDAQ:STCN . Steel Partners holds a 41% ownership.