Market Structure Simplified It is easy to get confused with overflowing information about market structure in the trading world.
To simplify things we have come up with a way of analysing market structure simply by marking each high or low.
In this particular example, you can see that higher lows were being created all the way down the bearish trend, so we knew that it was a seller's market UNTIL we got our break of structure .
When the BOS became apparent, we began to shift our attention to the possibility of reversals and used our magic tool, the Fibonacci.
This technique can be used in any trend, try it for yourselves!
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Reversalpattern
NZDUSD | Perspective for the new week | Follow-up detailsMy last speculation on this pair earned us over 200pips before the Bullish momentum began (see link below for reference purposes); Despite a long term Bullish perspective, I am beginning to see a short term opportunity to do a temporary sell on the Kiwi in the coming week as the Bears gear to step into the game.
Tendency: Downtrend (Bearish)
Structure: Supply & Demand | Reversal pattern (Double Top)
Observation: i. After breaking out of Double Bottom Neckline on the 14th of October 2021 (see daily chart), the Kiwi recorded a 3.42% growth over the Dollar to set the tone for a Bullish momentum in the long term.
ii. As it is now, it appears we are about to witness a correction phase into the Double Bottom Neckline (see daily chart) to incite a bullish trend continuation.
iii. Double Top: An extremely bearish technical reversal pattern forming after price tested a peak two consecutive times with a moderate decline between the two highs ($0.72100/0.71900) is an emphatic signal that awaits confirmation in the mode of a fall below the support level which is also equal to the low between the two prior highs (Neckline @ $0.71500).
iv. At this juncture, the Breakdown/Retest of the identified Neckline shall welcome an opportunity to open a position in the coming week.
v. In the midst of a potential Breakout/Retest of Neckline, there is a possibility that the price might do a climb to test the identified "New Supply level" within $0.71800/0.71500 in the early hours/days of the new week to incite further decline in price... Trade consciously!😊
Trading plan: SELL confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 150 pips.
Risk/Reward : 1:5
Potential Duration: 4 to 10days
NB: This speculation might be considered to make individual decisions on the lower timeframe.
Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored.
Risk Disclaimer:
Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility.
You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment.
I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
EURJPY | Perspective for the new week | Follow-up detailsWith over 400pips in the kitty from our last speculation on this pair (see link below for reference purposes); It appears that the correction of the Impulse leg has begun following the Breakdown of JY132.800 and JY132.300 level respectively.
As the Euro runs out of steam against a potentially strong Yen from a short term perspective, the current position in the market is laced with some warning signals that proposes a near-term short position in the coming week(s).
Tendency: Downtrend (Bearish)
Structure: Supply & Demand | Trendline | Reversal pattern (Head & Shoulder)
Observation: i. Since mid-September 2021, the Euro recorded a 4.34% growth over the Yen to set the tone for a Bullish momentum in the long term.
ii. And since hitting a peak @ JY133.500 during last week trading session, we witnessed a downward spiral that evolved into a Head & Shoulder look-a-like with an emphatic signal for a reversal.
iii. Head & Shoulder: The appearance of a baseline with three peaks, where the outside two are close in height and the middle is highest reveal the possibility of the risk of a further decline in price in the coming week which could also be a correction of the Bullish momentum that began in September 2021.
iv. With the recent Breakdown of the JY132.200 (a level that held price "supported" in the last 7 days) on Friday sets the pace for the Bears as confirmation of the Head & Shoulder pattern appears to be sealed!
v. The early hours/days of the new week might see a price climb to test the Neckline of Reversal pattern @ JY132.300 or climb as far as JY132.800 which is within the New Supply niche identified on the chart to incite further decline.
vi. Coupled with the Key level, the Bearish Trendline should serve as a yardstick to mitigate against taking an unnecessary short position in the coming week(s).
vi. Please note that the Bearish narrative is believed to be a short term perspective aiming at a rejection of Neckline of the Double Bottom sighted on the Daily/Weekly time frame (see link below for previous publication in the link below for reference purposes) for a Bullish continuation hence it is appropriate that we stay on alert for unsuspecting Bullish incitation considering the facts that this is a long-term Bullish expectation ... Trade consciously!😊
Trading plan: SELL confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 180 pips.
Risk/Reward : 1:5
Potential Duration: 2 to 5days
NB: This speculation might be considered to make individual decisions on the lower timeframe.
Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored.
Risk Disclaimer:
Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility.
You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment.
I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
GBPUSD | Perspective for the new weekDespite long-term Bullish expectations on this pair, the Pound appears to be on the verge of a slide amidst Brexit trade deal worries. The identification of reversal candles in the last days of last week trading session is a reflection of the news informing the possibility that the European Union could terminate the post-Brexit trade deal if the U.K.'s disagreement on the Northern Ireland border deepens. With price action contained within a Descending channel in the last four months, I look forward to the breakdown of the confluence - Key level @ $1.37500 and Bullish Trendline to short the Pound in the coming week(s).
Tendency: Downtrend (Bearish)
Structure: Supply & Demand | Descending Channel | Trendline | Reversal pattern (Double Top)
Observation: i. Since the beginning of the month of October 2021, the Pound rode on a Bullish Trendline to test the $1.38350 zone during last week trading session.
ii. The visual representation of a support line drawn under pivot lows revealed the prevailing direction and momentum of price action in the last three weeks.
iii. However the appearance of a reversal set-up on the lower time frame immediately price hit the $1.385000 zone could be a clue that we might be on the verge of a risk of further decline in price.
iv. Double Top: As stated above, the extremely bearish technical reversal pattern in play after the price reached a peak two consecutive times ($1.38350 & $1.38320 respectively) with a moderate decline between the two highs is awaiting further confirmation in the form of a breakdown of Neckline @ $1.37500 which is also a Key level.
v. In the coming week, it is appropriate that we look out for further confirmation which will happen if the price falls below the confluence of a Key level and bullish trendline @ $1.37500 (Neckline of Double Top) - a level which also equals the low between the two prior highs.
vi. It is also worthy to state here the significance of the overall Bearish set-up after the price broke below the $1.9500 zone in mid-June 2021. This level later witnessed multiple rejections that sent price spiralling downwards within a descending channel.
vii. Connecting the lower highs and lower lows of price action with parallel trendlines since the beginning of June 2021 is a consolidation phase that reveals an underlying downward trend masked within a Descending channel.
vi. In this regard, I shall be looking forward to taking a short position below the key level @ $1.37500 in the coming week to be on the safe side with an opportunity to add to the existing position at a Breakdown/Retest of $1.36000.
NB: All this been said, it is pertinent to state that if price breaks out of Channel to the upside the narrative so far shall remain invalid as a correction of the Breakout shall signal an opportunity to join a potential rally... Trade consciously!😊
Trading plan: SELL confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 250 pips.
Risk/Reward : 1:4
Potential Duration: 4 to 10days
NB: This speculation might be considered to make individual decisions on the lower timeframe.
Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored.
Risk Disclaimer:
Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility.
You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment.
I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
NVDA: I warned you about the "Gap Reversal Ritual"!Hello traders and investors! As crazy as this sounds, but after almost one month, NVDA did exactly what we expected.
It confirmed our theory about the “ Gap Reversal Ritual ” which we talked about in our last analysis ( link below), and now, it filled all its previous gaps, as we thought (I told you, I’ve never seen this structure failing). It only did one more gap after my previous analysis, which is something acceptable and this didn’t ruin the thesis at all – it just reinforced it .
The reversal pattern that triggered the Gap Reversal Ritual was this Inverted Head and Shoulders , which worked as a confirmation . Now, we are close to the previous resistance at $ 225, and we see a Trap Zone , as the 21 ema is going up, squeezing the price against the resistance. If we are going to lose the 21 ema, or break the resistance, we don’t know yet, but we can work with scenarios in the daily chart.
If we break the resistance, NVDA will probably seek the ATH again, as the momentum would be very strong. If we lose the 21 ema in the 1h chart, we'll probably seek the 21 ema in the daily chart.
Now the situation on NVDA is not as easy to read as it was last month, but we can still work with targets.
If you liked this analysis, remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily studies on stocks and indices.
Have a good day.
$ROOTROOT breaking supply trendline within a longer term channel.
An event like this could call for a retest of the channel heartline (red dashed line).
The longer it takes, the lower the price target will be. An eventual breakout of the heartline can call for a test of the supply trendline of the channel.
PLTR: It found its bottom! What to expect next?Hello traders and investors! Let’s see how PLTR is doing today!
First, in the 1h chart, we see a crystal-clear bull trend, as it is doing higher highs/lows. The trend is not as strong as we would wish for, but it is looking good.
The $ 24.71 is a key point for us, as it was the previous top, and it is supposed to become a new resistance for us, and at the same time, a pivot point. Now, let’s see the daily chart:
Since PLTR found a support at the gap area, it has been trying to react. The reaction in the 1h chart it is a good start for a possible reversal in the mid-term, but it feels like the $ 24.71 is the most important price level for us here too.
The $ 24.71 is a pivot point, and it is close to the 21 ema in the daily chart, which is still falling and pointing downwards. By breaking these 2 resistances, PLTR could easily fly again to the $ 29 area, as we don’t have any other meaningful resistance until there.
There’s something missing, which is the volume. This low volume is depressing, but the price action is clear. We have some very good signs on PLTR, but we must wait for more confirmation.
If you liked this analysis, remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily updates!
Have a good day.
What Does the Inverted Hammer Candlestick Pattern Mean? Hello Traders!
Have you ever wondered when will a strong trend end? Do you struggle to spot candlestick patterns that potentially signal when the bulls or bears might take over?
Take a look at this example of EUR/CAD and let's see how the trade plays out! :)
About the Inverted Hammer Candlestick Pattern and Why It Forms:
The Inverted Hammer is a bullish reversal candlestick pattern. It occurs when the price has been falling and suggests the possibility of a reversal. Its long upper
shadow shows that buyers tried to bid the price higher. However, sellers attempted to push the price back down. Since the sellers weren't able to close the price any
lower, this is a good indication that everybody who wants to sell has already sold. And, if there are no more sellers, who are left? Buyers!
And just an important observation, the Inverted Hammer has a small real body, and has a large upper shadow with a small or no lower shadow (also known as "wick").
Would you like to receive more "live charting" tutorials like this?? Comment below and let us know! :)
Happy Trading!
USDCHF | Perspective for the new weekThe probability of the Greenback to do a substantial drop in the coming week(s) seems to be high following the appearance of a reversal pattern in the structure of a Head and Shoulder on the Daily chart.
Tendency: Downtrend (Bearish)
Structure: Supply & Demand | Reversal pattern (Head & Shoulder)
Observation: i. As far back as 2010, It is interesting to observe how the Fr0.92400 zone has been a major determinant of the direction of price action as soon as it is broken or tested (See your weekly chart for reference purposes).
ii. Since the price broke above the Key level @ Fr0.92400, it has been difficult for buyers to continue with the same momentum as the Fr0.93700 level was met with sharp rejections that led to lower highs.
iii. Head & Shoulder: a baseline with three peaks, where the outside two are close in height and the middle is highest.
iv. The appearance of a Head & Shoulder at this juncture in the market describes a specific chart formation that predicts that a bullish-to-bearish trend reversal is imminent.
v. In this regard, I shall be looking forward to a Breakdown/Retest of Neckline which is also a significant Key level in the coming week for confirmations.
vi. This being said, the early hours/days of the new week might see a rise into the New Supply level indicated on the chart before the decline begins. However, it is most comfortable to have a position below the Neckline to join the potential decline... Trade consciously!😊
Trading plan: SELL confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 150 pips.
Risk/Reward : 1:3
Potential Duration: 4 to 10days
NB: This speculation might be considered to make individual decisions on the lower timeframe.
Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored.
Risk Disclaimer:
Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility.
You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment.
I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
AUDUSD | Perspective for the new week | Follow-up detailsSince my last publication on this pair, the price moved 150pipos in our direction before the reversal began (see link below for reference purposes). The Greenback 5-months winning streak appears to have come to end. The appearance of a Double Bottom pattern coupled with the relaxation of COVID-19 restrictions in Sydney, Australia’s most populated city after a four-month lockdown appears to bring hopes for the Aussie in the coming week(s).
Tendency: Uptrend (Bullish)
Structure: Supply & Demand | Trendline | Reversal pattern (Double Bottom)
Observation: i. The visual representation of a line drawn over pivot highs revealed the momentum and prevailing direction of price action in the last 5 months.
ii. Since the beginning of the year 2021 (February to be precise), we witnessed a downward spiral in price action until the price hit a bottom around $0.71 - a level that appears to be difficult for sellers to break down.
iii. Following the test of $0.71 on the 20th of August 2021; the price found a higher low to signal the possibility of a reversal, the beginning of a potential uptrend and at the same time raise the expectation of a Double Bottom structure.
iv. The appearance of a Double Bottom pattern is an extremely strong reversal pattern that describes a change in trend and a momentum reversal from prior leading major or minor downtrend.
v. The Breakout of Bearish Trendline on the 11th of October 2021, gives more credibility to the Bullish bias as we anticipate a Breakout of Neckline @$0.74000 in the coming week(s) for confirmation details.
vi. In case a correction happens in the early hours/days of the new week, I have identified a window on the chart for buying opportunities between $0.73000 7 $0.74000 with an opportunity to add to our existing position at Breakout/Retest of Neckline... Trade consciously!😊
Trading plan: BUY confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 250 pips.
Risk/Reward : 1:4
Potential Duration: 5 to 10days
NB: This speculation might be considered to make individual decisions on the lower timeframe.
Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored.
Risk Disclaimer:
Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility.
You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment.
I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
NIFTY - Potential End To The Bull Run Coming SoonTraders, NIFTY (NIFTY50) has been the best index. It has performed much better than US indices and has recently been competing with FTSE 100 too. The bull run is still on but it could shortly be coming to a halt or reversal when it reaches this FCP zone based on 161.8 Fibonacci Extension.
Rules:
1. Never trade too much
2. Never trade without a confirmation
3. Never rely on signals, do your own analysis and research too
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✅ Follow me for future ideas, trade set ups and the updates of this analysis
✅ Don't hesitate to share your ideas, comments, opinions and questions.
Take care and trade well
-Vik
____________________________________________________
📌 DISCLAIMER
The content on this analysis is subject to change at any time without notice, and is provided for the sole purpose of education only.
Not a financial advice or signal. Please make your own independent investment decisions.
____________________________________________________
$BBIG "Island Reversal" is a promising sign for the bullsAn island reversal is a chart formation where there is a gap on both sides of the candle. Island reversals frequently show up after a trending move is in its final stages. An island reversal gets it name from the fact that the candlestick appears to be all alone, as if on an island. A key sign of a valid island reversal is an increase on volume on both the first gap, and then the subsequent gap in the opposite direction. An island reversal formation is often attributed to news driven events that occur in the pre-market or after-hours trading.
Apple Reversal sign, Falling Wedge Hello everyone, as we all know the market action discounts everything :)
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The Apple stock turned Bearish back on September 8, The value of the stock was in the 157.13 zone and dropped and hit 138.40 yesterday almost a 12% drop in a short period of time.
AAPL has an average volume of 77287300. This is a good sign as it is always nice to have a liquid stock.
It seems that the stock is trading in a Falling wedge pattern which indicates a reversal soon, (Falling wedge in a downtrend is a sign of a Bullish reversal)
the stock right now is trading at 142.00 with different technical indicators showing a bearish short-term trend but a Bullish long-term trend, It is expected that the market will turn Bullish as soon as the market breakout of the falling wedge pattern.
Possible Scenario for the market :
The stock is trending at 142.00 today, if the bearish trend continues then we will see the stock price reach the $138 level or even the $132 before breaking out of the wedge pattern, where the trend will pick up and start moving back up to the $157 zone.
Technical indicators show :
1) The market is below the 5 10 20 50 MA and EMA but still above the 100 and 200 which indicates a Bearish short-term trend but Bullish long-term trend.
2) The MACD is below the 0 line which indicates a Bearish market for now, With a negative crossover between the MACD line and the Signal line.
3) The STOCH bounced from the oversold zone which indicates a rise in price soon, and a positive crossover is happening between %K and %D.
Weekly Support & Resistance points :
support Resistance
1) 139.18 1) 146.03
2) 135.72 2) 149.42
3) 132.33 3) 152.88
Fundamental point of view :
AAPL's Return On Assets of 26.32% is amongst the best returns of the industry. AAPL outperforms 96% of its industry peers. The industry average Return On Assets is 1.78% and the stock Profit Margin of 25.00% is amongst the best returns of the industry. AAPL outperforms 96% of its industry peers. The industry average Profit Margin is 3.14%.
It's always good to know that the Altman-Z score of 7.43 indicates shows that AAPL is not in any danger of bankruptcy at the moment.
Apple stock weighs around 6.1% in the S&P 500 index, so it is important for the whole broad stock market picture. Since early September it has been declining from the record high. Recently, the stock broke below the support level of around $142, marked by the previous local lows. The $142 price level is acting as a resistance level right now.
This is my personal opinion done with technical analysis of the market price and research online from Fundamental Analysts and News for The Fundamental point of view, not financial advice.
If you have any questions please ask and have a great day !!