XAU/USD | GOLDSPOT | New perspective | follow-up detailsGold prices surged to a record high last week, marking their most impressive monthly performance in over three years. This remarkable rally was primarily fueled by mounting expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts and robust safe-haven demand.
Furthermore, escalating geopolitical tensions on a global scale may drive investors towards gold as a preferred neutral reserve asset. While the potential for gold to extend its gains exists, particularly if market sentiments shift towards anticipating a more aggressive Fed-cutting cycle, caution is warranted as signs of buying fatigue are beginning to surface in the short term.
Moreover, concerns are arising regarding inflation running higher than desired by policymakers, underscoring the need for vigilance. Market participants eagerly await insights from the upcoming speech by the Fed's Chair, as it could offer valuable clues regarding the future path of interest rate decisions.
This video will outline our strategic preparations for the upcoming week, considering these critical factors shaping the gold market landscape.
XAUUSD Technical Overview:
In this video, we conducted a comprehensive analysis of the XAUUSD chart, utilizing both technical and fundamental perspectives. Our examination included an in-depth study of key levels, historical price movements, market behaviours, and the interplay between buyers and sellers, aiming to unveil potential trading opportunities.
Our focal point for the week is the $2,190 zone, endowed with historical significance, rendering it a pivotal level. The sustainability of bullish momentum above this zone could pave the way for continued buying pressure, potentially propelling prices to new highs. Conversely, the appearance of a reversal pattern or a breach below the $2,190 level, coupled with persistent selling pressure, might signal a resurgence of bearish sentiment.
#GoldMarket #SafeHavenAssets 📺🔔💼
Disclaimer Notice:
Please be aware that margin trading in the foreign exchange market, including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks, and other instruments, carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The content of this speculative material, including all data, is provided by me for educational purposes only and to assist in making independent investment decisions. All information presented here is for reference purposes only, and I do not assume any responsibility for its accuracy.
It is important that you carefully evaluate your investment experience, financial situation, investment objectives, and risk tolerance level. Before making any investment, it is advisable to consult with your independent financial advisor to assess the suitability of your circumstances.
Please note that I cannot guarantee the accuracy of the information provided, and I am not liable for any loss or damage that may directly or indirectly result from the content or the receipt of any instructions or notifications associated with it.
Remember that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Keep this in mind while considering any investment opportunities.
Reversalpattern
Bitcoin weekly lower high is set, but...BTC has set weekly lower high, which technically signals possible weekly trend reversal. A few things to consider though:
1. The week has not closed yet. While the probability of outside weekly bar is low, it is not impossible
2. Downtrend is far from being confirmed. Bears must break through 60,700 and then 59,500 to launch monthly consolidation. So far price could simply be forming weekly equilibrium
3. There was no strong selling near 71,000 but rather buyers’ exhaustion.
This is a very ambiguous moment. If you are a long term buyer, it is time consider (partial) profit taking. For a seller, it would be more prudent to wait for a moment with a better profit/loss ratio
Disclaimer
I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts.
EL jumps on analyst upgrade LONGEL like ULTA was beaten down in covid times. It jumped in 2021 and fell in 2022 and 2023.
2024 might be the year they thrive again. On the weekly chart, EL is back to the support of
its levels of 2018. With an analyst upgrade coming from Bank of America it is now getting a
bit of attention. Trend strength and relative strength were down. I see this as a good entry
for a new long position in EL while also looking at ULTA. Targets are the fib zone and a
correction / consolidation area on the downtrend so 200 and 250. Now is the time to invest
in female beauty.....
RH appears ready to rise from its base LONGRestoration Hardware on the weekly chart rose from COVID and then retraced for almost
two years. It appears now ready to experience some investor and trader interest once again.
It is rising from the POC line of its long term volume profile. The trend strength indicator just
inflected and curled upward. I like to catch trends early to get as much of a move as
possible and before the chasing begins. This is a possible megacap short squeeze set up.
Targets are 380 and 480 as horizontal levels of importance.
ZS short term upward reversal. ZS is trying to reverse downtrend. Bearish upthrust has been weakening over the last two weeks and price has already set daily higher low on the pre-market. For reversal to happen bulls must protect 192.5 and build value above 196.
If the reversal happens it will probably not to last long as we're in a monthly consolidation. But it still can provide some nice profit
Example of a possible trade is shown on the graph.
Disclaimer
I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts.
GM may be pivoting down SHORTGM on the weekly chart has ascended to the top of the high volume area of the long term
volume profile. The predictive algorithm forecasts a bounce down from that level. The
MACD indicator shows lines crossing over the histogram while the RSI lines are in the 60s
about the same level as the market pivot in 2022. The Supply / Demand indicator has the lines
with zero slopes ( flat) and ready for a reversal. Fundamentally, GM is challenged by the
dynamic between EVs and hybrids moving foward and federal mandates on fleet production
efficiency quota. I will take a short trade here along with Ford.
XAU/USD | GOLDSPOT | New perspective | follow-up detailsGold takes a step back in the wake of sizzling US inflation data and the Federal Reserve's cautious approach towards policy easing. The anticipation of the US Federal Reserve's easing cycle gets a reality check as robust US economic data pushes back the much-awaited commencement. Fed Chair Jerome Powell's call for patience aligns with the hotter-than-expected inflation numbers, reinforcing the need to adhere to the current monetary policy stance until inflation trends signal otherwise.
Currently, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) awaits greater confidence in inflation's return to the 2% target before contemplating rate cuts; with market projections hinting at potential cuts kicking in from the latter half of 2024. The shift in market sentiment from earlier expectations could put a lid on the price surge in the coming weeks.
In this video, we delve into our strategic positioning amidst these market dynamics, offering insights into how we intend to navigate the impending moves in the Gold market.
XAUUSD Technical Overview:
In this video, we conducted a comprehensive analysis of the XAUUSD chart, utilizing both technical and fundamental perspectives. Our examination included an in-depth study of key levels, historical price movements, market behaviours, and the interplay between buyers and sellers, aiming to unveil potential trading opportunities.
Our focal point for the week is the $2,155 zone, endowed with historical significance, rendering it a pivotal level. The sustainability of bullish momentum above this zone could pave the way for continued buying pressure, potentially propelling prices to new highs. Conversely, the appearance of a reversal pattern or a breach below the $2,155 level, coupled with persistent selling pressure, might signal a resurgence of bearish sentiment.
#GoldMarket #SafeHavenAssets 📺🔔💼
Disclaimer Notice:
Please be aware that margin trading in the foreign exchange market, including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks, and other instruments, carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The content of this speculative material, including all data, is provided by me for educational purposes only and to assist in making independent investment decisions. All information presented here is for reference purposes only, and I do not assume any responsibility for its accuracy.
It is important that you carefully evaluate your investment experience, financial situation, investment objectives, and risk tolerance level. Before making any investment, it is advisable to consult with your independent financial advisor to assess the suitability of your circumstances.
Please note that I cannot guarantee the accuracy of the information provided, and I am not liable for any loss or damage that may directly or indirectly result from the content or the receipt of any instructions or notifications associated with it.
Remember that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Keep this in mind while considering any investment opportunities.
ZS got too short, LONG opportunityNASDAQ:ZS has been very "bearish" for almost month but we're still in a monthly uptrend. At the same time there are bearish exhaustion signs: weekly bearish upthrust has diminished, and value area has been overlapping for the last three days. This creates opportunity to capture possible short-squeeze.
It is a high risk trade given the context but upside can be huge. Exercise with caution.
You can see example of possible trade on the chart (conservative profit target)
Disclaimer
I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts.
Mastering High Probability Trading EnvironmentsIn this educational video, we'll delve into High Probability Trading Environments and introduce a simple yet effective concept to confirm their presence . Understanding these environments will empower you to confidently navigate the market with consistency and success.
For a comprehensive understanding, I recommend watching my previous video on Understanding Trend Analysis, SMT, and ICT Concepts below.
If you have any questions, feel free to leave them in the comments section.
Happy trading!
The_Architect
AAPL - Updated Analysis - Important PA ApproachingWe would love to see yellow strong buying continue to guide price out of our selling algos.
First step is a breakout of strong selling purple and then we expect a fight to occur between strong yellow and more tapered blue. Soon enough if blue or yellow holds price (bullish buying continuation) we will see a retest of our teal selling algo and that will be our first sign of a true bullish reversal.
Will keep you all updated as price continues to develop!
Happy Trading :)
XAU/USD | GOLDSPOT | New perspective | follow-up detailsThe Gold price (XAU/USD) surges to a new record high above $2,180 as yields on 10-year US bonds dip to 4.04% following the release of the US NFP data.
According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Unemployment Rate climbed to 3.9%, exceeding expectations and up from the previous 3.7%. While Nonfarm Payrolls for February surpassed projections at 275K compared to the anticipated 200K, they still fell short of the previous reading of 353K.
Expectations for inflation have cooled as Average Hourly Earnings grew slower than anticipated by market participants. Monthly wages saw a modest 0.1% increase, contrasting with the 0.6% rise in January. Investors had predicted a 0.3% growth in wage, but annual wage growth slowed to 4.3% from both expectations and the prior reading of 4.4%. January's wage growth was revised downward from 4.5%.
The combination of sluggish wage growth and a high jobless rate has intensified selling pressure on the US Dollar.
During his congressional testimony, Jerome Powell highlighted that policymakers are nearing confidence in the return of inflation to the 2% target. He acknowledged the necessity of easing the current monetary policy stance to avert an economic downturn. The rally in Gold prices suggests that investors are buoyed by Powell's slightly dovish tone, anticipating earlier rate cuts.
As we gear up for the upcoming week, this video will delve into our strategic approach to navigating the evolving market dynamics from a technical perspective.
XAUUSD Technical Overview:
In this video, we conducted a comprehensive analysis of the XAUUSD chart, utilizing both technical and fundamental perspectives. Our examination included an in-depth study of key levels, historical price movements, market behaviors, and the interplay between buyers and sellers, aiming to unveil potential trading opportunities.
Our focal point for the week is the $2,143.50 zone, endowed with historical significance, rendering it a pivotal level. The sustainability of bullish momentum above this zone could pave the way for continued buying pressure, potentially propelling prices to new highs. Conversely, the appearance of a reversal pattern or a breach below the $2,143.50 level, coupled with persistent selling pressure, might signal a resurgence of bearish sentiment.
#GoldMarket #SafeHavenAssets 📺🔔💼
Disclaimer Notice:
Please be aware that margin trading in the foreign exchange market, including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks, and other instruments, carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The content of this speculative material, including all data, is provided by me for educational purposes only and to assist in making independent investment decisions. All information presented here is for reference purposes only, and I do not assume any responsibility for its accuracy.
It is important that you carefully evaluate your investment experience, financial situation, investment objectives, and risk tolerance level. Before making any investment, it is advisable to consult with your independent financial advisor to assess the suitability of your circumstances.
Please note that I cannot guarantee the accuracy of the information provided, and I am not liable for any loss or damage that may directly or indirectly result from the content or the receipt of any instructions or notifications associated with it.
Remember that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Keep this in mind while considering any investment opportunities.
Understanding Trend Analysis, SMT and ICT ConceptsIn this video, I'll delve into the concept of Institutional Market Structure, a vital tool for trend analysis. Specifically, we'll explore the Smart Money Tool/Technique (SMT), which provides insights into whether a market will continue its trend or potentially reverse. Understanding these concepts is crucial for effective trading strategies. Sit back, relax, and enjoy the video!
Please do leave any questions in the comment section if you have any.
Kind Regards,
The_Architect
GBPUSD | Perspective for the new week | Follow-upThe Pound Sterling (GBP) gains strength as market sentiment improves, driven by a growing appetite for risk-sensitive assets. This sentiment is reinforced by soft wage growth and a sharp rise in the Unemployment Rate reported by the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) for February.
The outlook for the GBP/USD pair remains positive, with widespread expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates before the Bank of England (BoE), potentially narrowing the policy gap between them for the foreseeable future. While investors anticipate a Fed rate cut in June, the BoE is seen likely to follow suit from August onward.
Despite inflation in the UK remaining higher than other developed countries in the Group of Seven (G-7) nations, driven by robust wage growth, market volatility is anticipated, particularly as expectations for a June rate cut decision by the Fed solidify, following Fed Chair Jerome Powell's less hawkish tone in his recent congressional testimony.
GBPUSD Technical Analysis:
Will the pound continue its trajectory and sustain its momentum above the $1.28000 zone?
The spotlight is on high-impact economic events from the US docket for clues. Brace yourselves as the anticipation and the actual events may trigger sharp price movements that could present incredible trading opportunities.
In this video, we've analyzed the daily and 4-hour timeframes, exploring bullish and bearish sentiments to uncover the most promising trades for the week ahead. We've delved into key levels, trendlines, and support/resistance points, unveiling essential insights into the current market structure.
We are keeping a close eye on the potential range between $1.28000 and $1.28900 where a breakdown or breakdown could incite the next BIG move. It's a decisive structure where both sellers and buyers will be vying for control, and how the market reacts here will set the course for GBPUSD in the upcoming days.
Stay connected and join the conversation in the comment section to stay updated on the latest developments. Thank you for tuning in, and get ready for more enlightening insights into GBPUSD in our upcoming content. Buckle up for a thrilling journey ahead! Happy trading!
Disclaimer Notice:
Please be aware that margin trading in the foreign exchange market, including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks, and other instruments, carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The content of this speculative material, including all data, is provided by me for educational purposes only and to assist in making independent investment decisions. All information presented here is for reference purposes only, and I do not assume any responsibility for its accuracy.
It is important that you carefully evaluate your investment experience, financial situation, investment objectives, and risk tolerance level. Before making any investment, it is advisable to consult with your independent financial advisor to assess the suitability of your circumstances.
Please note that I cannot guarantee the accuracy of the information provided, and I am not liable for any loss or damage that may directly or indirectly result from the content or the receipt of any instructions or notifications associated with it.
Remember that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Keep this in mind while considering any investment opportunities.
AMD Corrected Again- Buy the Dip Idea LONGAMD on the 15 minute chart breakout through anchord VWAP bands starting on February 29th
from the mean anchored VWAP support. Two days later finding itself extended to the second
upper VWAP band, price corrected over the next day down to the first upper band and then
after a few hours reversed and headed back toward the second upper band going somewhat
sideways and getting there two and a half days later. Price was rejected from that dynamic
resistance and fell into the first band which provided support to close the week.
The Luxalgo regression line forecast is for yet another more up to test the resistance of that
second upper band. I will take a long trade here recognizing that the forecast is for a 10-12%
move in the immediate term. If the forecast is accurate a stop loss will not be necessary. I will
set it at 204 to prevent anything other than an insignificant loss.
GBPUSD | Perspective for the new week | Follow-upOn Friday, GBP/USD saw a modest rebound post-testing 1.2600. The US Dollar is struggling to maintain its strength following the release of weaker-than-expected ISM Manufacturing PMI data from the US.
February's US ISM Manufacturing PMI dropped to 47.8, contrary to the anticipated rise to 49.5 from the previous month's 49.1. The diminishing PMI sentiment is fueling expectations for potential rate cuts by the Fed. These expectations are further reinforced by the Fed's recent Monetary Policy Report, where they reiterated their belief that inflation is gradually moving towards the upper end of the 2% target band.
While economic data from the UK remains scarce this week and the next, focus will shift to the US labor data next week. The upcoming week will feature the Services component of the ISM PMI figures on Tuesday, a preview of the ADP Employment Change for February on Wednesday, and will culminate with the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report at the end of the week.
GBPUSD Technical Analysis:
Will the pound continue its trajectory and sustain its momentum above the $1.26700 zone?
The spotlight is on high-impact economic events from the US docket for clues. Brace yourselves as the anticipation and the actual events may trigger sharp price movements that could present incredible trading opportunities.
In this video, we've analyzed the 4-hour timeframes, exploring bullish and bearish sentiments to uncover the most promising trades for the week ahead. We've delved into key levels, trendlines, and support/resistance points, unveiling essential insights into the current market structure.
We are keeping a close eye on the potential range between $1.26000 and $1.27000 where a breakdown or breakdown could incite the next BIG move. It's a decisive structure where both sellers and buyers will be vying for control, and how the market reacts here will set the course for GBPUSD in the upcoming days.
Stay connected and join the conversation in the comment section to stay updated on the latest developments. Thank you for tuning in, and get ready for more enlightening insights into GBPUSD in our upcoming content. Buckle up for a thrilling journey ahead! Happy trading!
Disclaimer Notice:
Please be aware that margin trading in the foreign exchange market, including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks, and other instruments, carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The content of this speculative material, including all data, is provided by me for educational purposes only and to assist in making independent investment decisions. All information presented here is for reference purposes only, and I do not assume any responsibility for its accuracy.
It is important that you carefully evaluate your investment experience, financial situation, investment objectives, and risk tolerance level. Before making any investment, it is advisable to consult with your independent financial advisor to assess the suitability of your circumstances.
Please note that I cannot guarantee the accuracy of the information provided, and I am not liable for any loss or damage that may directly or indirectly result from the content or the receipt of any instructions or notifications associated with it.
Remember that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Keep this in mind while considering any investment opportunities.
XAU/USD | GOLDSPOT | New perspective | follow-up detailsGold surged on Friday, reaching its highest level since early January, surpassing
2,080 as the 10−year US Treasury bond yield dropped by approximately 1.52% following the release of mixed economic data. S&P Global's report indicated an expanding US economy, while the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) highlighted a contraction in manufacturing activity, overshadowing the former report.
S&P Global's announcement on Friday showcased the fastest improvement in manufacturing conditions since July 2022. The Manufacturing PMI for February rose to 52.2 from 50.7, whereas the ISM February Manufacturing PMI declined to 47.8 from 49.1.
This data prompted a rise in Gold prices as US Treasury bond yields plummeted on expectations of earlier-than-expected rate cuts. Additionally, the Fed's latest Monetary Policy Report suggested cautious optimism regarding inflation control, despite lingering challenges in the tight labor market.
Considering these developments and the upcoming week packed with high-impact events, the question arises: How will Gold, as a safe-haven asset, perform in this market scenario? This video will shed light on navigating the current market dynamics from a technical perspective.
XAUUSD Technical Overview:
In this video, we conducted a comprehensive analysis of the XAUUSD chart, utilizing both technical and fundamental perspectives. Our examination included an in-depth study of key levels, historical price movements, market behaviors, and the interplay between buyers and sellers, aiming to unveil potential trading opportunities.
Our focal point for the week is the $2,080 zone, endowed with historical significance, rendering it a pivotal level. The sustainability of bullish momentum above this zone could pave the way for continued buying pressure, potentially propelling prices to new highs. Conversely, a breach below the $2,080 level, coupled with persistent selling pressure, might signal a resurgence of bearish sentiment.
#GoldMarket #SafeHavenAssets 📺🔔💼
Disclaimer Notice:
Please be aware that margin trading in the foreign exchange market, including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks, and other instruments, carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The content of this speculative material, including all data, is provided by me for educational purposes only and to assist in making independent investment decisions. All information presented here is for reference purposes only, and I do not assume any responsibility for its accuracy.
It is important that you carefully evaluate your investment experience, financial situation, investment objectives, and risk tolerance level. Before making any investment, it is advisable to consult with your independent financial advisor to assess the suitability of your circumstances.
Please note that I cannot guarantee the accuracy of the information provided, and I am not liable for any loss or damage that may directly or indirectly result from the content or the receipt of any instructions or notifications associated with it.
Remember that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Keep this in mind while considering any investment opportunities.
Is MRVL overextended ? SHORTMRVL on the 60 minute chart certainly had an impressive run for two days gaining 16%.
The chart however shows the bullish candles are decreasing in range and price is more than
two standard deviations above the mean VWAP and far outside the high volume area of
the volume profile. Bullish volatility fell to close the trading week on Friday afternoon.
My trade plan is to watch MRVL for consolidation and then a retracement of its bullish
move. A cross of the faster green RSI down under the slower red RSI will be the bearish
divergence to be seen to consider MRVL for a short trade.
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 3/5/2024 SessionCME_MINI:NQH2024
- PR High: 18254.00
- PR Low: 18217.50
- NZ Spread: 81.5
No significant calendar events
Continuing inventory hunt below prev session close
- Mechanical response to PR-1, dip below
- Relatively avg vols to start session
- 50% area of Friday's range
Evening Stats (As of 12:15 AM)
- Weekend Gap: +0.08 (filled)
- Gap 10/30 +0.47% (open < 14272)
- Session Open ATR: 230.55
- Volume: 29K
- Open Int: 295K
- Trend Grade: Bull
- From BA ATH: -0.8% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 18675
- Mid: 18106
- Short: 16963
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
LEU - Finally a bullish signal with lots of room to the upsideI've been watching Centrus Energy (LEU) for the past few weeks considering they are a strong company and we're in a very strong controlled selling (yellow) algorithm for some time. I was waiting for a bullish sign of reversal prior to finding support at tapered blue - which we saw last week when price was picked up by teal buying continuation. We are now gapping up above our strong yellow selling algo and our next stop will be to test the breakout of orange more tapered selling.
If we reject off of orange, we will be looking for one of our buying continuation channels, preferably yellow (very strong) to pick up price and take us out of orange where we will then have the opportunity to attempt a magenta tapered break.
Will keep you posted with further analysis as price develops!
Happy Monday and as always,
Happy Trading :)
Identify reversals and confirmation.Step to identify the beginning of a reversal and making a decision for a trade.
1. Draw/mark the current trend based on HH/HL/LH/LL, and use the trend line at those points.
2. If the current price crosses the trendline, that's an early signal for a reversal.
3. confirmation of a reversal when the price breaks the structure/pattern (bottom/top).
4. After the above happens, the weighting of the position in the small timeframe (3m/5m) is
based on the larger timeframe (1H). For example, 1H reversal up and then 5m should look
for a buy signal/keep buy.
5. The distances of target for the buy condition must be limited in the supply zone=previous
higher high/lower high. Vice versa, a distance of targets for the sell condition must be limit
in the demand zone=previous higher low/lower low.
6. you can combine with other measuring tools such as stochastic or RSI. The example here uses
Trend Circle Divergence (TCD) based on RSI, wave of momentum, EMAs, and MACD.
*Please refer to the chart below for in-depth information and analysis.
How do reversals happen and identify appropriate positions?
Price action/movement, patterns, and their effects