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Reversaltrading

TMF ( 3X Treasuries)beatdown completed reversal underway LONGOn the one-hour chart, TMF a triple ETF of long-expiration treasuries has finally completed its downtrend or ten days given more bearish momentum with the federal debt downgrade of creditworthiness as well as the rise of BRICS as a reserve currency. Three indicators show bullish divergence with a MACD cross under the histogram. The 30 minute RS line rising before the 2 hr RS line reacts and importantly a mass index signal rising into the reversal line and then a drop. While none of this is a Holy Grail, I am confident that the bias here is bullish. I will trade long if you are interested in the stop loss and targets let me know. If you would lke my idea of an options setup, let me know as well. If this idea is helpful, please like and subscribe. Trade well !
AMEX:TMFLong
by AwesomeAvani
FNGU- the leaders of the pack will come back first LONGFNGU is triple leveraged ETF of the titans of the NASDAQ; I expect it to come back front of volatility in the market quickly as its constituents are the leaders here. I hope to exploit this for 10% before COB for the trading week in the next two days.. A volume profile and mean anchored VWAP using metrics employed by institutions and those executing with blocks of voume. Analysis and target levels are on the chart for pureposeful brevity. Trade on !
AMEX:FNGULong
by AwesomeAvani
TQQQ reversal shows early tech market recovery LONGOn the 15 minute chart TQQQ took a dive down through some relative volume voids shown on the volume profile into a double bottom also showing a transition from high relative selling volume into some decent buying volume . I can conclude that TQQQ is in early reversal and will head the other direction through the same volume void which could allow for a rapid ascent. While I made profit on SQQQ today, for tomorrow I aspire to make money on TQQQ. I love volatility just as I loved yo-yos as a kid many years ago. The concept of converting kinetic energy into potential energy has analogies in the markets - coiling to store momentum and the triggering to unleash it. The chart shows pertinent levels of the trade plan. As a bottom feeding grinder I am looking for 4% of range for tomorrow .
NASDAQ:TQQQLong
by AwesomeAvani
Is NVDA done correcting? LONGNVDA shot up on earnings two months ago and more or less went sideways until mid July when it trended up for a week and then reversed downward. On the 2H chart, I have placed both a VWAP anchored to the earnings date as well as a volume profile. Price is currently above the 0.5 Fib level as well as at one standard deviation above the mean VWAP and above the POC line of the volume profile. The mean VWAP and POC are confluent at about 422. I suspect that it is at this level that volatility will be the highest and at where buyers will step in to open a trade shares of NVDA that have been oversold and are undervalued. Because of that, I will place NVDA on my watchlist for a long trade when it trends down approaching 422. The stop loss will be 418 or about 1% while targeting the recent double top of 475 and so a zone of horizontal resistance confluent with dynamic resistance in the red line of two standard deviations above the mean VWAP. Confirmation of an upcoming reversal is the histogram of the zero-lag MACD going red to green. NVDA has had a great run this year (220%) and its heavy presence in the AI megatrend bodes well for a good continuation.
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by AwesomeAvani
25
UPST mid-term VIEW Pre Earning LONGUPST on the daily chart with 2022-2023 in range shows a downtrend of more than 70% and now a round bottom reversal. The volume profile shows the high volumes of the high volume area which is relatively thin and mostly below the current price. That is to say, UPST has a lot of volume voids to fill on its way back to $162 . The Triple EMA ( 200,100,50) shows a convergence over a long interval followed by the reversal and now divergence. The MACD indicator is upgoing as are the trends of the dual RS lines of the RSI indicator. I see this as a long swing trade or investment while UPST is awaiting earnings next month. For targets, I plan the red lines generated by the volume profite and so $94 and $161. UPST is on my current favorite stock list. My current holding includes an option striking $51 for 8/4. I will roll that option over about 8/2 to avoid time decay. Additionally, I will buy another option striking $75 and expiring on 9/15 costing about $950 at the market price with the bid/ask spread of about 4%. I expect the combined two call optins will yield on average 5-7% per trading day and may hold them through the earnings period. The only downside risk is that an earnings beat is somehow already priced into UPST and that the momentum will decelerate and fade. Buying the contact cheap and out of the money seeks to manage that risk.
NASDAQ:UPSTLong
by AwesomeAvani
25
DRV a triple leveraged Real Estate ETF LONGDRV as a ETF of real estate stocks is likely somewhat responsive to the financial environment. My idea is that the recent rate hike of 0.25% will adversely effect home sales and liquidity especially given that the Fed has indicated that there will be on easing this year but perhaps some pauses. They take August off for the conference and party. The 2H chart shows price moving down from a high pivot in May. The zero-lag EMAs ( 35/70/280) are golden crossing. The MACD confirms that upward divergence.On the dual time frame RSI, the low TF green line has jumped up and looks solid. I will take a long swing trade here zooming into the 15-30 minute TF for an entry. I will also look at the options chain seeking an option expiring in 203 months reflecting a target of 48 between the POC line of the volume profile and the mean VWAP thick black line. I like to catch revesals early to profit from the bulk of the move. This is another opportunity.
AMEX:DRVLong
by AwesomeAvani
QQQ Recovering from a Pullback LONGQQQ had a bad day yesterday reacting to adverse financial news with a deep correction as technology stocks were hit the hardest. On the 15 minute chart, price dropped to the bottom outer band in the double BB indicator and then reversed and heading inside both bands and then gapped up in the open of the premarket session. The dual RSI indicator shows the lower time frame line in green crossing over the higher time frame red line. I conclude that price could run up to 385 especially if it can cross the middle band at 380.
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by AwesomeAvani
1
AMZN a long reversal tradeAMZN on the 30 minute chart has descended from a double top / head and shoulders pattern in early to mid July and is now set up in the lowest VWAP bands in oversold undervalued territory. The RSI shows lines bounced from the lowest green line set at 20. the low time frame blue- 5 minute line has crossed above the higher 60 minute black line time frame and they are both above the 50 level demonstrating bullish momentum in the early reversal. The mass index indicator crossed above the reversal zone and then down triggering the signal. I will take a long trade on AMZN seeking to profit from this reversal with about 8% near term upside. The trading plan's targets are in the text boxes on the chart.
NASDAQ:AMZNLong
by AwesomeAvani
1
Can NFLX rebound from the down turn after earnings?NFLX started a good trend up about June 25 and then pulled back in the day after the earnings report. Although the earnings beat expectations, price continued to drop in a VWAP breakdown shown here on a 2 hr chart. Over the 2 days that followed, price has continued down at a slower rate and candle ranges are diminished. Importantly, the zero=lag MACD shows a line cross under the histogram which has changed from red /negative to green/positive. The lines have inflected upward. I see this as demonstrative of bullish divergence and predictive of a reversal. Overall, I see NFLX rebounding with a potential 15% upside. My target is 480 in consideration of the swing high on July 18th with a stop loss of 415 the swing low of late June.
NASDAQ:NFLXLong
by AwesomeAvani
2
BNKD Is the banking crisis still simmering?Recently, a report posted on the Social Science Research Network found that 186 banks in the United States are at risk of failure or collapse due to rising interest rates and a high proportion of uninsured deposits.Jun 14, 2023 BNKD, the banking bearish and leveraged ETF has dropped in trend down in the past month albeit with some upgoing corrections along the way. GS, JPM and MS are all uptrending as an with DPST high jumping in the past day. On the 2H chart, BNKD is in deep oversold undervalued territory at or below more than two standard deviations below the mean VWAP. However: (1) the mass index indicator popped into the reversal zone and then dropped below the trigger level of 26.5. I see this as a mathematical prediction of a soon impending reversal. (2) the dual time frame RSI shows the lower TF blue line bounced from the lows and the higher TF is flat not showing further weakness. I consider this a subtle bullish divergence. (3) Importantly the red line in the sand here is the POC line of the visible range volume profile. Price is presently supported by that line showing buyers taking a defensive stand at that level. Overall, I will take a long reversal trade here targeting the middle of the first upper deviation band at 12.0 with a stop loss at 8.88. This is a high potential reward of 35% for a small risk taken. The reward on an options trade would potentially be well over 100%. I will zoom into a 15-30 minute time frame to select a pivot low to make a more precise entry.
BLong
by AwesomeAvani
4
Is CVNA setting up a short trade with its pop?CVNA on the 2H chart appears to be retesting the resistance zone established by a head and shoulders pattern over the middle of June. Additionally, on the stochastic RSI it is at a level from which it reversed on May 25th as well as the pivot highs associated with the H & S. While volume is above the running average, it is not a spike and so without high significance. I see CVNA as reversing now or very soon. I will monitor this on a lower time frame and look for an entry. Once I see some indecision HA candles and their color change from green to red accompanied by some volume and/or volatility possibly confirmed by a bearish divergence downtrend on the RSI I will take a short trade and potentially a put option as well. I think short sellers will be stepping in here with volume after the price spike CVNA just completed. I will be among them.
NYSE:CVNAShort
by AwesomeAvani
Can NVAX rise again?NVAX has had significant down trending over a wide range of time. On the 4H chart it seems to be pivoting from a swing bottom 3-4 days ago. This is accompanied by a cross of the MACD lines under the histogram on that indicator and a flip of volatility on the relative volatility indicator. NVAX has been subject to significant short selling. Price is presently nearly two standard deviations below the mean anchored VWAP set in mid May. Basically it is in deep undervalued oversold territory and now with a rise. The volume profile has a point of control level considerably above the mean VWAP. This is the level with the highest volume of trades showing most trades occurred well above VWAP. This would be traders taking profit and selling or alternatively short sellers opening a position but more likely a combination of them. Price wants to ascend to at least VWAP if not the POC line. My analysis is that any significant rise could begin a squeeze on short positions. Those closing with a buy to cover trade would in effect be synergizing new buyers and add to the bullish momentum, Accordingly, I will open a position early and see if I can get in ahead of a potential short squeeze. While speculative, a narrow stop loss at 6.80 the second band line below the mean VWAP will take a lot of risk off the trade and allow me to be patient comfortably watching the price action.
NASDAQ:NVAXLong
by AwesomeAvani
8
SOXS Bearish Leveraged semi-conductors ETFNVDA turned down today while SOXS rose a bit. On the 30 minute chart is shown to have have been trending down but then reversed in the after-hours trading period albeit with the low volumes typical of after-hours. The relative volatility indicator however showed a dramatic reversal and will be beyond the moving average within the indicator. Overall, I see this as a day trade for June 27th. I have marked out a tight stop loss to minimize risk. This trade which I will enter in the premarket is expectant for 8-9% profit and so a reward to risk of 15:1
AMEX:SOXSLong
by AwesomeAvani
SDOW a triple leveraged ETF shorts the DOWSDOW is shown here on a 30 minute chart current rising above a parallel descending channel which is within a longer trend of a downward-facing megaphone pattern where it is currently situated near the top of the megaphone. I have drawn the two trendlines onto the chart and added an RSI indicator. My plan is to take a short trade on SDOW by looking for an entry on the 5 minute time frame where the HA candles are red and the RSI has dropped below 50. I will set the stop loss above the resistance trendline while targeting the support trendline at the low of the pattern.
AMEX:SDOW
by AwesomeAvani
Can MULN reverse its decline?MULN is a stock in the EV automotive space. As recently as last year it was priced at $30-40 per share. It has steadily declined but continues to have volatility flare-ups where the price spikes. I understand it has a bit of a cult-like following which is not uncommon. Price has lost 50% since the latter part of May. On the 15-minute chart, price has jumped about 10% in the past few days with increased volatility and a confirmatory trend of the lines of the MACD crossing above the zero horizontal line. I suppose this could be a retracement /correction but it also could be a reversal in its earliest phase. I see this as suitable for a small position risking less than a tenth of a percent of the account. The stop loss is 46 cents or about 6-7%. This is the recent pivot low. My first target is 1/2 of the previous decline or about $.70 with a second target at $.80 and the final target of $0.95 knowing that $ 1.00 is a psychological level.
NASDAQ:MULN
by AwesomeAvani
2
Is AUDNZD due for a reversal?AUDNZD as shown on the 15- minute chart is rising after the Australian central bank raised its prime rate in keeping up with another global tightening. Since May 24th AUDNZD has risen 4% in various legs with some consolidation but no downturns. ADUNZD may be due for a correction. IT is shown here on the 15-minute chart along with the "Alpha Trend" indicator, the zero lag MACD indicator and the visible range volume profile. AUDNZD is above the POC line showing bullish buying pressure to have pushed it higher. However, on the MACD, the K/ D lines are setting up a cross over the histogram which typically is a sell signal. AUDNZED may hae had a decent trend up but could now be getting ready for a "reversion to the mean" Because of this I will watch AUDNZD as a candidate for a short trade perhaps with a retracement of 2% ( 1/2 of the trend up) over a period of several days.
Short
by AwesomeAvani
DGLY is due for a correctionDigital Ally, has had a bit of a slow motion pump after earnings in mid-May. Insofar as the earnings go, there were none. The news is DGLY is burning cash less than expected. No matter how you cut it shareholder value is not there and still the price went up since then especially in the last few trading sessions. DGLY could dilute shareholders to raise capital. Insiders could be manipulating the price. According to FinTel, there are 12 insiders who own 7.7% of the shares. Seemingly, if they act in a coordinated scheme without any paper trail they could have run the price up especially if they got help with one of the several penny stock trading rooms with lots of followers. Overall, this looks like a pop and drop pumped up and ready to flush. I will take a short trade of put options on this expectant for a quick profit over a week or two.
NASDAQ:DGLYShort
by AwesomeAvani
4
Food Gaint Kroger reverses from a trend downKR has an overall fairly narrow trading range. On this 4H chart, it is presently in a symmetrical triangle or slowly rising wedge. Earnings beats have been respectable. KR reversed on June 1 at the trending support line and is heading toward overhead resistance. Just before that upper resistance trendline is the POC line of the high volume area of the profile where high volatility and increased trading could result in a bounce and fall. Confirmation is found in the zero-lag MACD indicator which shows a K /D line cross under the histogram. I will take a long trade on KR (reversion to the mean) with the stop loss at that pivot low on June 1st and the target a nickel below the POC line at 48.95. I see this as a low-risk and low reward trade which may also be the basis for adding a low risk call options trade to the options portfolio.
NYSE:KR
by AwesomeAvani
Is DISH ready to dish out some profits?On the weekly chart, DISH has been in a steady decline for over a year and is now on sale for 20% of the asking price a year ago. It is sitting on the long term support zone and has passed over the POC line of the volume profile putting buyers in control. The red doji candle followed by the green doji candle is the capitulation of the bottom. Volume in 2023 has steadily and persistently grown compared with 2022. The accumulation/distribution curve slope has finally approached zero to suggest a price action reversal . I will take a long trade early and beon the leading edge of the uptrend after noting a 15% breakout to kick off the month of June.
DLong
by AwesomeAvani
FULC Biotech Fib Level BouncdFULC on the 15 minute chart had a good response to favorable earnings and then retraced. It is now bounding off the Fib 0.5 level and also confluent with the POC line of the volume profile and the mean of the anchored VWAP. Buying volume appropriately overtook selling volume on the reversal Luxalgo's Echo indicator, an AI predictive tool, suggests a 10% price rise in the after-hours which is typically a busy trading period for biotechnology penny stocks. I will take a long trade on FULC in after hours and take off a part of the position in the next trading day and hold the rest through the weekend.
NASDAQ:FULCLong
by AwesomeAvani