Reversion
ETH prediction based on well-respected long term fib levelsI thought this recent move might be it, but it's not climactic enough. So continue being short but expect a retrace.
Based on long term fib level which is holding well, it'll either go down to around 320 from here, or retrace and then go back down to 320-ish. Hoping for the retrace from here, to offload at 390 to 415.
Reversion to the mean.
Reversion To The MeanI have used the Regression Tool available on TradingView, to plot the SPX Monthly Chart going back to 2009.
What I observed is that on 2 occasions, (points which are marked with arrows as A and B), the SPX went above the Upper Limit and then immediately fell back to within the channel.
At Point A, it returned back to the Median and then followed a gradual upward path towards Point B, whereupon, the SPX Monthly then fell sharply back to the Median and continued to fall to below the edge of the Lower Limit.
Event A took place in the month of Jan 2018 and Event B subsequently worked itself out in the month of September 2018.
The SPX Monthly is now again back up and beyond the Upper Limit of the Regression Zone and, if; history repeats itself, then the odds are high that it will exercise Reversion to The Mean again on this 3rd occurrence.
I link into a previous post , (about Chart Patterns that tend not to fill) and am of the opinion that 3102 on the SPX will be the Maximum Floor towards which the SPX will revert back to.
This is still very much a powerful Bull Market and the Top Is Not In, and may not even be in till perhaps closer to 4000+ (as the Market nears the results of the US Presidential Elections of 2020 in November).
Bull Flag Fractals: Signals price reverting to the mean.I love fractals. Here we have a micro bull flag embedded within a med. term flag embedded within a greater macro flag, wow. I called the recent btc price jump to 10k on my first video. I am calling this move to 11k. Price reverts to the mean and the mean is up not down - relatively speaking. Don't believe me, just watch.
These times are only estimates:
Target 1: by Nov 4
Target 2: by Nov 11th
Target 3: by 30th
HAIR - OverreactionThis looks like a nice technical setup for mean reversion coming straight out of an overreaction.
The volume by price range shows the 3 clear points with a lot of price memory. Most holders that haven't sold will feel they are owed money and be looking to relieve the tension of the loss at those points.
SLV - Oct 18SLV was for quite sometime was following a steady uptrend until broke out. It has now reverted back to exactly where it was 2 weeks ago.
I'm expecting it to trade sideways within the narrow uptrend range, fake a breakout and then fail as the MACD cross under suggests massive downside.
I'll be watching:
- OTM Long 15 Put Oct 18
- ITM Long 17 Put Oct 18
- Short Iron Fly 18/16/14
AFL - Bull Put Spread - Weekly & Daily Chart SetupBack from Hols - Back to Trading - Back to Profit..!!!
Weekly (W) Chart, Post Earnings showing good Pullback towards Mid BB%.
W RSI is <10.
Looking for S/R around the 52 level.
Looking for Reversal to mean back higher.
Aiming for 52.50 /50 Put Credit Spread with 55 Calls for directional Bias higher.
Exp SEPT - As this is weekly Chart, looking to leave time to run well into Profit.
Exit around W RSI level 50/60.70 depending on levels and PA.
Good Luck - Watch your $$$ RISK.
Chuvashov Breakout EURUSD - weekly TF - sign of reversionThe downtrend that started more than one year ago is giving signs of reversion.
Weekly suport holded the price and now we had a breakout of a chuvashov fork and also a falling wedge (if you look for this...)
The RSI also broked a trend line and retested it like the price with the chuvashov fork.
Price looks like is going up
AIONBTCAt the end of a major long term resistance / falling wedge / bull flag
Possible return to the mean of the downtrend channel
Could easily POP, set you sell order to catch it! =)
US Bonds : Yield curve has reversed, what to do with that ?Hope this idea will inspire some of you !
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Kindly,
Phil
SOURCE : www.marketwatch.com