AMZN - This pullback is a long-term opportunityThis pullback in AMZN shares could make for a long-term opportunity to pick up shares. Shares fell +30% and could be in for a nice bounce in 2019.
Reversion
FB - shares are firming, look for upsideSince hitting lows in November, the trend has changed alongside increasing accumulation. This is a prior leader, which looks to be a value play.
BTC Long Term Pitchfork TrendCurrently I am expecting a mean reversion, sub $5k feels almost certain upon viewing this chart. I have used a line chart instead of bars in order to keep this clean. But all 3 pivots to this pitchfork are anchored to significant wicks (you just can't see them).
If it is looking like price will hold above the mean I will look for a long term entry to hold for at least at least a decade.
A Comparison of Crash Patterns, BTC Price Prediction! Bitcoin's price distribution is still compressing. It will take roughly a week for bullish (or bearish ) moves to truly be supported by price mass on the shorter timeframes. This is actually the tightest we've seen the distribution all year on the four hour chart, once it starts expanding again we'll see a brief return of price volatility . Do note that the 50 MA subset distribution is heavily weighted to the negative on the daily chart and any break below the relevant mean period volatility could cause significant, medium term net negative selling. If the price mass is still decreasing, why would upward moves be supported without the people who are capable of covering the shorts being on board for long term sustainable growth? (And they're not, due to the continued, long term compression of the distribution.) Show me net positive short term volume , and then I can jump on the meme reverse head and shoulders patterns we see on tradingview right now.
The left side is Bitcoin.
The right side is the dot com bubble.
Really the fact that they're different asset classes doesn't matter, charts are just visual representations of market expectations and both charts reflect the fear and uncertainty that comes from a crash.
Yes, these are different time frames but we should all know bitcoin is extraordinarily volatile.
Bitcoin was a bubble, the bubble popped. As you can imagine, the Nasdaq composite has shot up in value far above the highs set during the dot com bubble.
Just wait for the distribution to compress before taking any bullish positions.
My expected trading range for bitcoin over the next year is 4,000 to 9,500.
BTCUSD longBTCUSD has hit the necessary checkpoints that I needed to take a trade. It has finally completed another mean reversion and returned to its 52 day SMA mean. It also completed a long overdue 61.8% Fib retracement. Even though its in my buying zone I would prefer to see a deeper dive into oversold territory to feel all warm and fuzzy about this trade. With that being said I an watching for the classic break-check-go setup as my trade trigger. Twice in 2017 BTC did the same thing (returned to the mean, hit 61.8% Fib and got into oversold territory) so this is the trade that I have been waiting on. Remember trade only what you can afford to loose and plan your trade and trade your plan. Thanks to all!
GBPJPY - Possible bullish reversalPrice didn´t reach previous support and it doesn´t seem too strong but apparently we have a possible bullish reversal.
EURUSD LONG - THREE TRADE SETUPSThe Horizontal Rays shows you the trade setup with ENTRY/BLUE-STOP/RED-TARGET/GREEN.
If we can manage to get a CLEAN break above the BLUE BOX - Look for a rounded retest for a run up to the first high initiated in red.
If we are going lower then the mean reversion trade - spread your long entries in the lightblue box with a master stop where you think you dont want to be bullish on the euro anymore.
CMG Expectation of Reversion to Mean after Earnings DisappointmeI think CMG has accumulated way too much hype and expectation in the recent run-up, which has caused the stock to rise above a flagging technical indicator. I expect that Earnings coming out Tuesday after market close will either disappoint or will fail to sustain the bull run any further, and that CMG will "revert back to the mean" by forming a significant down-leg returning it to the steady-state zig-zag pattern of matching up-and-down trends.
EMBR3 | Reversão tend ou correção | Trend revers or correctionComeçemos pelos créditos: Passei a olhar esse papel após assistir o programa "Na mira do Trader", apresentado pelo Wagner Caetano e oferecido pela Infomoney.
Além dos apontamentos oferecidos no programa, notei alguns outros indicadores interessantes:
* Divergência entre os fundos formados pelo RSI e os preços;
* Mudança de direção da média móvel exponêncial de 21 dias;
* Rompimento de resistência a 15.07 com formação de GAP e volume próximo da média;
* Escalada do preço com aumento de volume; Inclusive com OBV acima de sua média móvel exponêncial.
Por hora, não vou entrar nessa operação. Mas pretendo estudar mais a fundo o contexto da empresa nos próximos dias.
English version:
Let's start by credits : I started to look at this stock after watching the program "Na mira do trader" presented by Wagner Caetano and offered by Infomoney .
In addition to the notes offered in the program, I noticed some other interesting indicators
* Divergence between the bottoms formed by the RSI and price;
* Direction change of the price exponential moving average (21 days);
* Resistance breaking, at 15.07, letting a GAP and with volume close to the average;
* Price climbing with volume increase; Including OBV above its exponential moving average.
For now , I will not get into that operation. But I intend to study further the business environment in the coming days .
EURCAD Short: Weakness Into Weekly Pivot + 500EMAEURCAD has respected the 1.554 level and is showing signs of short term weakness. The pullback after completing leg AB of the potential butterfly pattern has presented an opportunity to sell. Relatively flat 200SMA and 500EMA with price hovering above adds to short term bearish bias. The unhit weekly pivot makes for a good target. SL is placed at structure highs and entry just above hourly open yields a R/R of 2.41.
Defined risk - Speculative trade. Mean reversion due.Buy Vertical PUT Option spread on FAZ ATM ($55) 3 mth expiration to close at $40.
I have entered this as LONG - that is obviously referring to the market going long facilitating this trade which is SHORT on the FAZ 3 x ETF..
