SPX Likely to Push Farther UpwardI'm going to express a contrary opinion to most expressed within YouTube, Seeking Alpha, and Trading View Ideas: The S&P500 has much farther to go before we reach the "top." To be clear, this is driven exclusively by monetary policy and debt increases. The 10Y rate has been in a very strong down trajectory since the mid 1980s. This, obviously, has deviances from the norm but the rates will continue lower until the Federal Reserve tapers and allows true market forces to reign in rates and, by extension, asset prices. By my logic, the 10Y rate is in a local top and has nowhere to go but down.
As can be seen from the graph, there seems to be some exponential correlation between the risk-free-rate and equity appreciation. This would mean that, if I'm right and rates go lower (which I believe is not just likely, but necessary), asset prices will continue to appreciate ever more greatly compared to the RFR. With this, a bold statement can be made: Stocks are not only going farther up, but are still cheap. Very Long. I think the shorts are going to have their lunches eaten; possibly supper, too.
