BTCUSD: Forecast explanationIn this video I explain how the trend signals work and what we are doing to stay one step ahead of the market.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
Rgmov
BTCUSD: Updated view - Probability matrixI've revised my analysis and figured out what paths are possible from here onwards. In any case, buying BTC is not safe nor ideal now, since we might get a consolidation sooner rather than later. The corrections that may form can take us way lower, or simply sideways from wherever it tops, but, overall, they imply no more growth after time runs out, for an extensive period of time. Finding the bottom of said corrections, or predicting how far down they will go can be done, but only with more data that will reveal itself over time. Now, if you're long my advice is to hold and watch price patterns develop. If you don't have mastery of the time at mode methodology, it will be hard for you to figure this out, but at least you can rely on tracking your emotions, and being cautious when extremely hyped, and greedy when fearful but in profits.
As for people on the sidelines, chasing price now is not wise at all. I'm still making money from being on select altcoins with good fundamentals and technical trend signals which I joined, while risk/reward and probability were optimal, and I'm still far ahead of $BTCUSD holders, by actively trading in and out of positions instead of blindly hodling $BTC. I'm not bothered by losing a bit in $BTC terms, after having beaten it heavily in the past two years. Some people will get obsessed and do stupid things due to this, so, please, don't be too greedy. You may not see other opportunities in front of your eyes, due to focusing too hard on one thing.
As for $BTC, I will explain this in more detail in a video, but also want to have the chart with the forecasts published.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
PS: To the haters, chill guys, it's not good for your health to be so negative. If you carefully review all my publications and learn more about how trading works, you might change your mind. It's not about absolute returns at the expense of having wild volatility and drawdowns in your equity, it's about maximizing risk adjusted returns. Maybe some day you'll get it. At times, haters are just people who need to criticize others to hide their own flaws...not good behavior, speaks bad about anyone doing it. I'm a positive guy, you won't ever see me actively criticizing people all the time. Lighten up!
BTCUSD: Top is inI believe we're topping here. I'm out of BTC but also out of exchanges, so I would only risk sending small deposits to bitmex or okex to go short if willing to. Otherwise, being in altcoins like $BCH or $ETH, would pay off similarly possibly. There are other picks we're in, but won't disclose all here.
I'm long $BCH but I'm in no way endorsing or supporting Jihan and his miners' cartel, I dislike the centralization they introduced into BTC, but, it's one of the negative fundamentals, together with potential regulations, and the action of CME traders, that will lead to a top here. This might start a lengthy sideways/volatile bear market. Not a straight line down...Altcoins may flourish, sporadically, and we may eventually see this space evolve into something much larger and greater. Looking forward to it.
Best of luck and don't drink the permabulls koolaid.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
ETC: Impending rally in a few weeksIn this chart we analyze the relationship between $ETH and $ETC pairs, and the timing of fundamental events to come, which bode well for a repeat of last year's events.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
NGAS: Uptrend spotted, good retracement to go long hereI'm long $NGAS from here, risking a drop under 2.9, I think we have good odds of having a significant rally off this zone, with low risk.
Best of luck if taking this trade.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
EURUSD: Uptrend kicking off?I'm long $EURUSD from 1.16 give or take, and aiming to add once we break out from weekly resistance, which I think we will be tagging within 2 more days. There's a significant chance that the prevalent opinion that the dollar bottomed and that we are seeing a 'head and shoulders' top in the Euro are wrong, and all those shorts get squeezed to death. This would create a furious rally that could take us close to 1.3 during the course of 3 months give or take.
Stay safe, stay a contrarian...Best of luck!
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
BTC+BCH: 1 full Bitcoin like someone sayI don't fully subscribe to this idea, but the chart is clear. We have a weekly rally for 2 more weeks, daily currently in a pause, but could rally again in 3 more days. This basket hit the first weekly target, so it could stagnate if $BCHUSD keeps falling, or, it could rally to target #2 over 14k. It might not be a bad idea to reload on $BCH, to match your numerical amount of $BTC held, if you sold already -ideally higher-.
Let's see how it evolves...Once this rally ends, we might start a bear market for 2 years, possibly due to the mess caused by miners and the political factions in $BTC.
Some altcoins might benefit from this, like ZEC and XMR which I already discussed in a previous publication, or $LTC, that could be seen as a $BTC replacement, without the drama, or many more.
Will be an interesting period, a boon for 'stock picking'.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
SPX: Updated daily view$SPX is trending up clearly, and is ready to go even higher before starting a retracement or consolidation period for a few weeks, probably after earnings are out for all companies.
I'm long a few select individual stocks, following my main investing themes for this year, and not holding direct exposure to passive funds or index or sector ETFs personally. Refer to related ideas for my long term forecast and other ideas for $SPY/$SPX.
Sentiment has been negative throughout this whole rally, peaking right before and after the elections results came out in November 2016. It has been a very interesting year, and things will continue to be exciting from a trading perspective. As an investor, I'm interested in riding big emerging trends in unloved stocks, and trying to stay away from high valuations in tech overall. I have a sizeable gold position, 25% of my net worth since it was at $1220, but I'm not a declared bear like most people in gold -who have been either losing, or missing out on the stocks, AND crypto rally since 2009-. I think it's good to keep a clear head, and be open to new data to adjust your views.
Technicals show we can rally significantly in the short term, and get a consolidation later on, so be ready to hedge once more by then. I'll update this chart when the time comes.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
ZEC and XMR: Could they replace ETH, maybe BTC?This is just an idea, very speculative one at that...seeing the ample discounts in $ZEC and $XMR, I started thinking that maybe, fundamental risks and technical challenges in the $ETH roadmap, and the $BTC scaling war could benefit these two coins in particular.
I'm putting them both as a highly speculative long idea here, you could accumulate gradually over time and hold, or watch them carefully, specially once $BTCUSD tops at 6900 or up to $9750 this year, before starting a bear market that can last 2 years, possibly. An alternative is a tight stop long, risking this to be the bottom, but you shouldn't risk more than 1% on it. I'd risk even smaller if going long. Buying a 1-2% allocation on each wouldn't kill anyone.
What is the general concensus here? I'll be doing more research on this subject, I think we might be on to something.
A few positives and negatives:
Negatives first:
ZEC so anon that supply numbers could be fake?
The BCN code they used to fork $XMR off could be suspect, maybe there is a problem with ring signatures?
Inflation in ZEC?
Developers aren't anonymous, unlike Satoshi...
ZEC has institutional backing
Positives:
ZEC has ZK Snarks and finite supply of 21 million coins
Both are black market friendly/money laundering galore -for now?-
XMR community and development teams are solid.
ZEC development team is really solid.
ZEC has institutional backing
ETH killers, potentially both...POS is a big risk, unknown outcome.
BTC killers? Store of wealth could be fulfilled by ZEC easily, but inflation is a bit steep now. XMR, similar situation. Asic miners I think are a big problem in BTC, centralization risk when you can't compete freely on hashpower. Although this could change with new companies entering the space in Japan for example.
Dash sucks.
ETC sucks.
LTC sucks.
Feedback welcome,
Best of luck.
Ivan Labrie.
BTCUSD: Last rally started...$BTCUSD is rallying again, the signals on chart point to a rally to 6900 to 9750 by the end of November or sooner. I'm holding BTC in my crypto account, but also trading $ETHUSD with leverage. Currently, I think we can take a few shorter term long trades with margin but we'd need a dip to present itself in the next few days. Most people have been interestingly bearish before this breakout, which gave me peace of mind holding longs. At the top we might see the most intense bullishness present itself in the media, public opinion, social media, everywhere...be ready to sell and sell short once we do top, cause things can get ugly, after completing a long term rally, as per Time @ Mode.
We could see a bear market last for 10-20 months after 2018 starts, not a good prospect.
It was clear to me that as investors seek to benefit from the airdrops in Bitcoin, they would start buying BTC with all other alts, and cover shorts to do so. For example, the Bitcoin Gold fork, would force investors to withdraw funds from exchanges. In the case of the 2x fork, Bitfinex already claimed they will grant you a balance in the new fork once available, for all spot and margin holdings you may have in BTC. This can create a lack of liquidity and a rush to buy BTC, with all you got going into the snapshot date, and given the enormous short positioning we had, a short squeeze rally, which I think already started. It's probably accurate to say very few -like us- saw this coming.
Best of luck,
Ivan Labrie.
PS: If interested in benefitting from my insights and trade reccomendations on a real time basis, message me for access to my trading services.
ETHUSD: Long again, after covering ETHBTC shorts in profitWe had a stint with the short side recently, a quite succesful one, but at the bottom price action suggested that strong buyers had entered the market, so I covered shorts and flipped long $ETHUSD. Now a weekly signal is active and we can resume the last portion of the monthly uptrend to its eventual top -at least for almost a year after hitting it-. Targets on chart, between 863 and 1741.22, to be achieved by the end of November, or sooner. If we don't have any bearish surprise and drop under support on chart, we will surely achieve these goals.
Ethereum's coming fork, which will grant it with some interesting features, would be only the first part of the initially dubbed Metropolis upgrade, but comes at the right time, when $BTCUSD is already surging, so it makes sense to see both of them rally together while this trend lasts. My signals indicate the longer term trends in crypto are about to end, and we might enter a lengthy bear market phase, but careful study of multiple timeframes, sentiment and fundamentals gives me confidence that there's one last, and particularly sharp rally in the cards.
Best of luck,
Ivan Labrie.
BTCUSD: UpdateSideways action here...I'm waiting for fundamentals to evolve, the chart shows mixed signals that could develop into both a downtrend or an uptrend with equal chance...a bit leaning towards uptrend due to the long term chart, and also the poor follow through to the downside recently. Other than that, I don't yet have a good enough low risk setup here, so, I chose to wait in cash for now. Keep an eye out for the dates on chart.
I can think of a few possibilities, a bullish scenario would be if suddenly the SEC approves the Winkledudes ETF, which could result in everyone forgetting about the China regulatory crackdown risks, and cause a massive short squeeze rally. A bearish scenario would be if we don't get any new positives, and China confirms eventually that they are banning everything, and we see an increase in oversight everywhere, with maybe the CTFC and the SEC making US investors' life hard. The timing for this to unfold will be slow and painful, probably, since China won't make any official remarks, or at least it is unlikely to do so, before 1 month after the end of the Communist party congress, which takes place during October.
Let's wait and see...
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
ETHBTC: Breaking down...The terms Bitfinex published for the upcoming B2X fork, may have started a chain reaction that is putting pressure in all coins that are paired against $BTC, as people borrowing $BTC, will also owe $B2X tokens after the Nov. Fork. Pair this with a lack of liquidity in $BTC from people withdrawing to receive the Bitcoin gold airdrop, and you have an explosive catalyst for a short squeeze in everything against $BTC. If I'm right, $ETHBTC -and everything */BTC- will melt down, and $BTCUSD could reach heights between 6300 and 9700 quickly, leading to an spectacular blow off top by Nov. 18th, as people return to exchanges to drop thier B2X and chaos breaks loose, with not 1, but 3 BTC forks in existence competing for the top dog spot.
Miners will be severely divided by then, and I think the outcome could have disastrous consequences in the short and intermediate term, but, after the bear market ends, we might resume the uptrends in these instruments. Best of luck if shorting here, keep a tight stop and let it cruise. At least, swap alts for $BTC and wait for $BTC top if long crypto.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
ETHUSD: Bird's eye view, don't miss the forest for the treesI'm holding long positions in $ETH, and aiming to add once we get further confirmation of the weekly uptrend resumption. Recent events have led to a rollercoaster of emotional trading and a lot of people badly positioned. I was anticipating a sentiment reset before, as you can see in my related ideas, it was in fact needed to resume the long term uptrend in cryptocurrencies, but it's never easy to maneuver keeping the long term picture in mind when short term charts and sentiment seem abysmal, but that is when opportunity comes knocking.
Let's see if things evolve favorably, if I'm on the right track, market participants have weighted risks from China's crack down far too heavily and not considered positives like Japan's position in this juncture, or the massive potential of ICOs as a means to democratize venture capital, or heck, the implications of $ETH finally scaling once Metropolis finally goes live in 2 weeks. I added fundamental events and key levels on chart, I think we might see a quiet period during China's golden week, but, some traders might use the lower liquidity to squeeze shorts, after jewish investors return to the market after Yom Kippur. Keep an eye out for these developments, and be ready to increase your exposure, or, start getting involved in this great trend soon.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
LTCUSD: Great upside in LitecoinLitecoin is very accumulated and ready to move up. If shorts get squeezed we could see a rapid rally. Targets on chart. You heard it here first...
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
USDARS: Time to go back upArgentinian savers, time to sell your ARS for USD once more...The bottom of the move was reached.
Better be prepared. I'm taking profits from my stocks priced in pesos, and going to cash in USD for now.
Best of luck,
Ivan Labrie.
NEOUSD: Daily trend is up, resuming the weekly rally is possibleI'm waiting to reenter $NEO, looks like we have a good chance to rally from this level later on, after the 8th or the 13th this month, at least...possibly later on as well, but it's yet to be seen how prices align with the timing of pending fundamentals as we move forward. The picture is becoming clearer by the day for me, which is when we start having good results from our combined technical and fundamental approach. Keep in mind the amount of shorts that are trapped here, they can single handedly push the price over $130 easily once squeezed.
You can wait and enter on the breakout, or accumulate positions on dips.
Best of luck,
Ivan Labrie.
SPY: Long term viewThis is an updated forecast chart for $SPY. The weekly chart has more nuances that might help predict the intermediate term turns and corrections, but overall, this is the path that is possible according to the long term charts. I'm long but not buying the market directly, in general, instead I focus on stock picking to try and outperform. Sentiment has been negative all the way up, it's interesting how people's perception is affected by recent events, that shocked them -the 2007 financial crisis-, and many have missed the whole rally since 2009, or lost their shirt hedging or trying to short, buying volatility, etc.
Best of luck,
Ivan Labrie.
TSLA: Ready to resume the quarterly uptrend?I think $TSLA might be about to jump, and continue the quarterly timeframe uptrend. The first target for said rally is interestingly, the same potential target we would get from the weekly trend, which will become active once we break up over the resistance. I bought here for the past two days, aiming to catch the exact bottom in the daily timeframe, after two severe corrections took place in the stock, since we sold at $365 a few months ago. With the potential the Model 3 has, I think a rally from these parts is highly probable.
As a sidenote, cryptocurrencies follow a similar path, with one in particular exhibiting almost the same shapes and timing for all the price action since inception. I'm talking about $ETHUSD, you can check it out on your own, fairly interesting and might be an implication that both will rally together once more, since I see them both as a buy here. Both instruments, although seemingly dissimilar, might be part of the same macro trend, probably related to the spending habits of the young population.
Best of luck if joining us in this trade,
Cheers.
Ivan Labrie.
AUDUSD: Resuming the monthly rally next$AUDUSD appears to have comp0leted a correction and is ready to resume the monthly uptrend. We're long and added here at 0.7850 for the last time, after buying at 0.7835 initially.
The trend in EV adoption is driving flows here I suspect, with an increase in the price of copper, iron ore, cobalt, nickel, and other materials required for different battery types. Australia benefits directly from this, as an exporter of these, iron ore and copper in particular. This could drive the long term rally we observe to be active in monthly charts.
See related ideas for more information.
Best of luck,
Ivan Labrie.
XAUUSD: Gold's retracement endedI think we have very good chances to see an immediate rally off the lows here. I've added my final entry to longs in gold futures today, and I will be monitoring it, and rolling over to the next contract if required, as long as we continue the monthly rally. I also have positions in $GDXJ right now. Overall, I see these as a hedge, but I'm open to ride the uptrend in gold in a more speculative manner with futures as well.
Best of luck,
Ivan Labrie.
GFI: Bought at market open - Huge potential, great fundamentals$GFI is an optimal pick when it comes to gold miners. The valuation is very good, and growth exhibited by the company this year exciting. The situation in South Africa has scared investors away, but I believe it will be a very interesting trend going forward. At the same time, this play serves as a risk off bet, which is welcome in the current enviroment. We are long with a 10% position from 14.09 as of today's open.
Best of luck if joining me on this trade. The monthly trend is potentially up, and there is a chance to confirm a rally to considerable heights by the end of the month.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
Simple index chart: Interesting way to look at crypto chartsI was looking at different index charts we can construct thanks to Tradingview, since a few days ago a client shared a few of these charts, and I liked how plotting LTC, ETH, BTC and DASH looked (multiplied by the supply, to get the market cap values). We have a clear bottom at support in this chart, and we can see that the market caps of all these coins can go up from here onwards, reaching the target on chart, as crazy as it may seem.
Best of luck!
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
