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Rgmov

EURUSD: Downtrend activeEURUSD is tracing a downtrend for a good while now, and after FOMC, a new downtrend signal got activated, suggesting the pair will decline significantly in the next two weeks. Watch the targets on chart for a potential retracement, or at least, the start of a sideways pattern before trending down (or reversing). If we mive back above 1.063, the bearish case will be a flop. You can take any intraday short signal to rejoin the larger timeframe downtrend here, but the daily isn't giving an appropriate entry here, only a viable hold if you're already short. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Short
by IvanLabrie
5
NVDA: Short in 3 days on closeI'm looking to short $NVDA here, but need further confirmation of the top. If we get a smaller range day today, and we see a new daily low after that, or if we get a new daily low right away tomorrow, I'll short a half position then, risking $10.86 per share. I'll start building a position after tomorrow's close if the range is smaller than today's, and spread the selling over 1-2 weeks. Alternatively, if we see that within 3 bars, price doesn't hit 107.97, we'll get a low risk short signal, which would be a good confirmation of our fundamental thesis. You can check out the post by @michaelgoldin on the subject, he spotted this trade during one of our conversations at the Key Hidden Levels chatroom. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by IvanLabrie
4
WST: Outrageous valuation, Time at mode signals a top is in placWe can short $WST without much difficulty here. Short at the open and risk either a new daily high, or use no stop and size the trade based on 0.5-1% exposure, considering a $4.83 risk per share. Target on chart, but, keep in mind this can evolve into a longer term downtrend here as well due to the valuation the company has up here. It's practically a bubble, once it pops it'll get ugly, and fast. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
NYSE:WSTShort
by IvanLabrie
USDCAD: Uptrend in motion, potential targetsUSDCAD might start tracing a continuation of the intermediate term uptrend here. Targets are on chart, both time and price matter here. I estimate to see a strong rally, followed by a correction, until there's enough time chopping around, needed to make the late comers give up, to eventually resume the rally, maybe once or twice before hitting the targets. If you bought gradually with me, or bought before FOMC today, you can hold with break even stop at your average entry price, and simply wait for price to approach the bullish targets on chart. My preferred approach is to monitor the trade, to trail stops and add gradually, and reenter if trailed out, once the eventual pullbacks appear to end. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
1
NZDUSD: Update, topping pattern, and weekly time at mode targetsWe're in this short now, and looking to add in the next 3 days. It is possible that we're seeing the resumption of the sharp downtrend that started after the US Presidential election created a solid LOW in the dollar and US equities. This could be the first 'wave 3 or C' after the first 1/A down. Since the first move was so sharp, it is possible the post pattern requirement of the end of a complex corrective structure is at play. The price action is reminiscent of a topping pattern here, and we have confirmation from RgMov showing the trend is mainly down now, so, fading overbought rallies results in good trades for the most part. Weekly Time at mode analysis gives ample downside here, but there is a caveat: watch the low volume support zone, it might make this downtrend fail, if the prognostication isn't correct, resuming the upside chop again. Once we're below that zone, we can look to book some profits, or simply trail stops after adding more to the position to increase our odds of conserving our profits. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Short
by IvanLabrie
PBF: In an uptrend, buy dipsI'm looking to reenter PBF at support near the 27.55 mark. I've highlighted my recent trades in the chart, showing my exits and reentries. I'm adept at working like this instead of holding during corrections. I anticipate the turns based on price action around key levels, and the application of Tim West's 'self contrarian' signals that we use to time exits in good profits, or trail stops and add to positions. What we do is constantly asessing our own emotions regarding our positions, specially the winning ones, since this gives us a great edge in finding good profit taking zones, and determining when to reenter positions. I'd reccomend buying a position gradually near the 27.55 mark, starting as soon as Monday would be ok, but ideally the correction will last until December 14th which is what I estimate. I'd reccomend opening a 7% size position if we hit 27.55, and you can look to add once in profit confirming the rally. Entering over a week would be better. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
NYSE:PBFLong
by IvanLabrie
2
BTCCNY: Daily view updateThe weekly BTC chart has failed to reach a 'momentum validation target' in time at the close of last week, but the chart remains bullish, showing the uptrend is in progress still. We have added back to our long position at 5350 give or take, and we aim for 6530 to 7390 to bank some of our trades. There is time to hit these targets until January 15th, but in the short term, we don't want to see price go lower than 5369.53, if we do, we should keep a hard stop at 5145.08. If you have buys from way lower prices, keeping a 15% account sized position will be a good idea in the long term. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
BLong
by IvanLabrie
32
BTCCNY: Good dip to buy up to 80% account with no leverageWe have a nice chance to enter longs here with a tight stop loss. We can jump in right now, or wait for a few hours if more conservative. Stop loss is 5145.08, if we go below it, we might get a correction in weekly scale, so ideally, we stay above it. Timing the entry would help with getting in and seeing profits instantly. If you jump in now, although price is low, and at support, it might go in the red briefly, so, it would be easier to wait and go long by 6pm my time, GMT-3 to be safe. Good luck, and either trade with no leverage, only holding up to 80% account in BTC, or risk no more than 3% per trade. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
BLong
by IvanLabrie
26
AVHI: Good valuation and potential weekly uptrend continuationAVHI has a very interesting chart, here, and valuation is very good. We can look to establish a position here, aiming for a resumption of the weekly uptrend within 2-3 weeks. Entering at market open, risking 0.5% on a decline to 14.37 is a great longer term entry in this stock. Once we have some progress we can look into trailing stops and adding to the position gradually. This is a good chance to gain exposure to the sector, so don't miss it. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
ALong
by IvanLabrie
ETHEUR: Update - Longs viableWe can take the long side here with low risk. Size it to fit 0.5 to 3% risk, if price drops against you by 1.9 euros. Each coin you buy, your risk is 1.9 eur basically. For example, if your account is worth 10k Eur, you can buy a maximum of 157 ETH, which I'd reccomend you buy over a week or two, entering gradually. Split the purchase between a few days, amp up the size on drops, until you have a full position, if not, simply add the same amount gradually. A good time to buy is earlier in the day (5am in Shanghai), which usually aligns with the start of chinese activity in BTC, each day. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
2
USDCNH: Pullback's done hereUSDCNH appears to have completed a correction and is ready to resume the uptrend here. This bodes well for Bitcoin longs as well. If you want to take the trade, risk a drop to 6.8374, or enter gradually over a few days, risking a bigger move down. The other alternative is to dial down to 1h charts to take the trade, or simply buy a new daily high, with a stop at the recent low. In the current enviroment, I don't favor using stops at all, and start with smaller positions, due to the 'expanding bias' where markets go a bit further than expected, or take a little longer to turn, each time. If you have tight stops, you'll get chopped out multiple times. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
6
TWTR: Weekly uptrend still viable, target is 29.13Expanding the analysis, this is what I'm looking at in TWTR right now. We're already in the long, and adding a bit more next week. It's possible that TWTR confirms a weekly 'Time at Mode' uptrend signal, which would propel it (probably due to acquisition talks again) to the target on chart. The cue is when we see price hit 20.01 during this week, probably after earnings, or some news regarding bids. I'd reccomend either buying calls out of the money, or selling puts at the money, or trading bull call spreads, or owning stock, but be careful with the amount you buy (risk is $3,21 per share bought, stop losses aren't viable). You can buy puts to protect your downside here, or short calls once we go higher from here as well, but not for now. Good luck! Ivan Labrie.
NYSE:TWTRLong
by IvanLabrie
GBPUSD: Long term decline analysisThis is the long term outlook for GBPUSD, we can see that the signal here has been working well, and although I had initially identified it as a quarterly signal, it belongs to a higher timeframe to correctly portray the activity in it according to the 'Time at mode' methodology. For now, we'd have to wait for this year to end to judge the future shorter term targets to validate the bearish momentum, but we can already keep the target in mind, to flip long after covering any short we have once hit, or if the time expires, or, to identify long term resistance levels to short against on rallies. The daily chart tells us to wait, and so does the weekly for now, so, I'll keep an eye on it to short rallies, or the confirmation of a lower timeframe 'Time at mode' downtrend signal like the one in related ideas. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Short
by IvanLabrie
2
USDMXN: Uptrend continuation hereUSDMXN has fired a nice buy signal here, so we can enter gradually over a couple days. If it doesn't move back down under yesterday's open, we can expect significant upside to emerge from here. The fundamental key levels will tell you what prices will probably do with good accuracy. Please refer to my educational chart on the subject, or ask, for more information. Going long USDMXN here is a good idea overall, since it acts a bit like a hedge against SPX during risk off events. Good luck! Cheers, Ivan Labrie
Long
by IvanLabrie
2