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Rgmov

TSLA: Confirmed weekly longWe're already long TSLA, but now we have valid incentives to take a weekly long, specially good if you missed our early bird entry at 184 give or take. The weekly trend is shown to be up, as per the RgMov indicator, and we have a clear pattern where we broke back above the correction 'speed line' which is now holding as support, as well as having buyers step in at previous low volume levels. All of this shows underlying strength, and considering our oil forecasts, and the SCTY merger with no one thought would happen, and last but not least, the % of the float that is short, we can expect a rapid and large short squeeze rally here. If not long, you my enter at market, or on dips, with stops under 178.19, or take a longer term style trade, buying a 2-5% account stake over the course of a few days. (I think it's a bit late for that, but not terrible). Good luck! Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by IvanLabrie
5
EUFN: European financials are in danger hereI think we can get a retracement in the financial sector, and Europe is in worse shape than the US in general. It wouldn't surprise me to have some negative news pop out, surrounding Italy's referendum, Deutsche Bank, Italian Banks, UK banks, Brexit, etc. Quite a few potential catalysts for volatility, so, if we see this ETF break the linear regression channel support, we will probably see a rapid selloff. Keep your eyes open, it might be safer to stand aside, and book succesful long trades, or maybe even take a couple strategic shorts. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:EUFNShort
by IvanLabrie
USOIL: Daily view, linear regression and range movement analysisIn this chart I graph the linear regression channels that correspond to each leg in this trend. The trend is mostly up, and it's likely that we're seeing the start of the next major uptrend leg here, since we have found huge buying when retesting the bottom of the long term linear regression channel. Technicals are bullish, without even factoring the fundamentals. The yearly SMA matched this spot, as well as the lowest volume level since the bottom in oil, which is a really strong support, so bearish thesis had to be discarded. Factoring in global demand vs the production cut, the dynamics of supply and demand confirm this idea, and we have strong arguments for holding longs. Additionally, range movement, Tim West's proprietary trend analysis and sentiment analysis tool, shows that we had 2-2.3 point drops in RgMov on each correction in the uptrend, and that's what happened here, so, the sentiment declined enough to form a bottom. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
TVC:USOILLong
by IvanLabrie
9
Gold/Stocks ratio: Risk off rally?It appears like we're about to see a pullback in equities, or at least a rally in gold and silver, and a pullback in the dollar here. It might have to do with the Italian referendum as well, but we'll know soon enough. Breaking this trendline would signal risk off sentiment, further validating the gold and silver long ideas I've posted. What I'm not sure of yet, is the extent of the rally to come, and wether it is part of a retracement in a long term trend that has turned down (this is possible), or simply the market is sideways and trendless (forming a giant consolidation or sideways pattern, or even a triangle). You can set alert to know when (if) this trendline breaks, set it to 'crossing up', 'once' using tradingview's handy alert system. Once CCI hits +100, we might get a set up to flip short gold, on weakness, so we have to remain vigilant as gold approaches the 1240-1250 zone. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
12
BABA: Good short setupBABA is currently in a downtrend, and it has a good while before price to sales reaches a more sane level, at least until it hits 77.65 or so. There's a 'Time at mode' downtrend signal that got triggered last Thursday, and we shorted on the pullback on Friday. I bought out of the money puts and bought a put spread to reduce costs on my bearish stance. Risk is 1% overall, and aiming for a nice return here. If you wish to join, you can either trade it with options, in a variety of ways, or simply short the shares using the reccomended stop loss for position size (you don't need to actually place the order). Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
NYSE:BABAShort
by IvanLabrie
6
USDSEK: Close to giving a chance to rejoin the long term uptrendUSDSEK is flashing a sell signal here, but the longer term timeframes are in an uptrend, this makes for a great place to look for longs. I'm monitoring the price action to reenter longs gradually until the 14th close, aiming to risk 1% overall, if price were to drop under my stop. For now, if you wish to buy, you can enter here but risk would be bigger, so keep position size small enough to tolerate a 2883 pip decline from here. Once we approach the downtrend time and price target, we'll start to see price action show signs of reversal and that's when we can amp up the size and tighten stops after it's safe. I'd rather not have a stop or have a wide one until then. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
2
DXY: Pullback gives a good buying opportunityDXY is in a long term uptrend, so, corrections give way to excellent buying opportunities. This way, we can profit from exploiting volatility, while following our long term vision and fundamental bias. There is a correction under way, which I assume can be similar to the previous ones. I think the move up will start soon, but it'll probably gain steam after FOMC is out of the way, not before. I'd reccomend buying into a position gradually, since now we made a strong move down, breaking into new weekly lows, so we'll need to use a wide stop loss (or calculating size based on risking 0.5-3% of the account, if stopped out 3 times the daily average true range value down from the initial entry). Monitor price action in the coming 8 days, it should be clear when it's about to turn up again, so be ready to add incrementally to the position. Let's see how it goes, good luck! Ivan Labrie.
TVC:DXYLong
by IvanLabrie
2
CLF2017: Oil futures updateWe have closed half higher, near the high of the day, and now stop is at entry price. It might take a while to proceed higher, so there is no rush, simply hold the position for the time being. If you want, you can short calls against it until January but you would defeat any possible upside to come. I did reccomend shorting call options for the $OXY trade though, and here we just close half for now. We need to see how price action evolves from here. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
NYMEX:CLF2017Long
by IvanLabrie
EURNZD: Good buy on strengthI'd reccomend against using stop losses here, you may go long on strength after the close. Risk is $3000 per standard lot if entering here. We can aim for a retest of the election highs at least.Risk 0.5-1% buying over a few days. Seeing a new low here isn't good but it might take a while to get going, so I'm open to that happening. The price action is a bit more erratic between December and February in FX, so I'll be trading smaller positions with wide stops or no stop, entering gradually as prices confirm the analysis, not all at once. I'd reccomend this to people to reduce risk. Add to the trades that start to work, else, you have small risk at first. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
5
Italian referendum - News breakdownIn this chart I show you the key events and times of occurrence ahead of the news today. The US futures market will probably open with a gap due to opening after the polls come out, but there will be plenty of time to await the official results, so, the market might remain volatile and directionless before the results are out. I'd reccomend you keep risk small if trading into this event, either keeping positions small, or using very wide stops, since any gap through your stop could prove to be disastrous if levered, like has happened in the past, too many times this year...(think GBP flash crash, 'The Trumpening', Brexit...). I think we'll see a risk off rally, but I'm not entirely sure US equities will be impacted negatively (despite what many people think). Good luck today, Ivan Labrie.
FX:XAUUSD
by IvanLabrie
18
ETHEUR: Go long at marketI think ETH has fallen enough here. The euro value of it will turn around, since it has hit the levels associated with the Bitfinex hack. If it doesn't go to 5.96710 within the next 2 months, we could see a monthly scale rally in it, probably due to a change in fundamentals. It's good to see buyers step in here, so, it only takes an increase in activity, and some fundamental news to stage a rally. It's oversold enough, potentially. If you want to buy, you can risk a drop to 5.9671 and enter a 0.5-1% risk long here. Weekly charts show an uptrend, so on any new weekly high, we could see a rally take off. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
4
XAUUSD: UpdateI think Gold has bottomed here, so, after today's close, we can buy a 0.5% risk position, with stop loss 1 tick under today's low. To be safe, don't place the stop, but watch it. Position size should be based on this, or if conservative, daily volatility. So, two options: Buy a new daily high, after today's daily close, Risk 0.5% if price moves under today's low. Buy a 0.5% risk position, risking a 58 dollar drop from here. Add another position with the same size tomorrow. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
4
SPX: Potential pullback starting, let's watch 2150I think we'll see a retracement next, but I'm not sure about calling for a downtrend in the longer term here. Although fundamentals favor a rally overall, uncertainty over many global events, and proximity to the end of the year, might trigger profit taking, which would drive SPX lower, at least to 2170. If this level doesn't hold, we might test the linear regression channel support, and possibly lower levels, but it's hard to say before hand. It's safer to simply focus on reacting to the key levels and price action in the present. If we don't drop under the election's open, or wost, under the election's daily low, I wouldn't worry too much, but for now, I remain vigilant. I'm shorting a few stocks, booking profits in some longs, and trading the risk off leg using FX and commodities mostly. Shorting SPX is valid, to a certain extent, but there are better vehicles to trade this move. Good luck, and watch the key levels on chart to pick the bottom here. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
FX:SPX500Short
by IvanLabrie
10