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Rgmov

Gold/Silver ratio: Long term bearish declineThe Gold/Silver ratio shows an interesting setup here, and correlation to inverted SPX, which points to the nature of the ratio's movement tied to risk off/on phases. This has to do with the real world applications silver has as an industrial metal, compared to gold's function as a store of value and risk off protection. I think we can see a long term decline, implying the price of silver will either appreciate or depreciate less than the price of gold, in comparison to it at least. It's probably a good trade to take as a pair, which if you're using futures, implies you use a 2 to 3 ratio, selling 2 GC contracts and buying 3 SI contracts to enter the trade with reduced margin requirements. (I think there's a new contract for the ratio alone, but not familiar with it). You should size the trade based on risking 1% to 2% max if the price were to go against you coming back to 70.43. In the case of CFD or FX traders, you could open trades in the XAUUSD and XAGUSD instruments, or using this XAUXAG or XAGXAU contracts if they exist in your platform. If you own physical gold, exchanging it for silver makes sense at this point (if you didn't already). Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
OANDA:XAUXAGShort
by IvanLabrie
2
CLX: Clorox bleeding cash, structural shortI think this is a really good short setup. The company is bleeding cash, funding their huge dividend with debt, not complying with regulations regarding the usage of sustainable palm oil on their products and the technical chart shows an ideal entry against resistance here. The entry is very tactical, a perfect technical setup, paired with bad fundamentals for this company, with only a 1% earnings yield, a 1.2% free cash flow yield, and falling free cash flow and after tax margins. Good luck if taking it. Ivan Labrie.
NYSE:CLXShort
by IvanLabrie
2
DXY: Weekly analysis shows an uptrendBearish momentum during last week must fade before we safely long the dollar again. It might take some time to shake off the bears here, but the election might play its part, making next week be a battle between the current bears in control, and the bulls. The high of the Brexit day might prove to hold the selling, specially confirmed if we don't see any weekly HIGH sitting lower than it, on close. Although the timeframe isn't quite the weekly for the dollar signal on chart, it helps see the patterns from previous legs with clarity. From a 'Time at mode' perspective, we're in a 16 week advance, that should see 100 hit before January 20th, 2017. Depending on how prices act next week, we can decide to go long the dollar with good probability of success and a great risk/reward ratio, so stay tuned. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
TVC:DXYLong
by IvanLabrie
2
GBPAUD: Coiling for an explosive move down againGBPAUD is about to trigger a downtrend signal in the daily chart, and has an active weekly downtrend, with 5 weeks more of proyected downside. The weekly target sits at 1.42355 as indicated on chart. If this pair continues to trend, we will most likely hit it, and then stall to form a consolidation before even more downside. Right now, we can either sell if we get overbought readings and/or a test of the 'Flash crash key level' in red above, or if there's a breakout to the downside. To enter the trades, if we get a test of resistance, we can risk 1 ATR above the key level, but if we also hit overbought readings in CCI, we can take a trade based on one of Tim West's proprietary tools, the RgMov indicator, but I won't explain the entry parameters here since the price action needs to materialize before I confirm it. The breakout trade will form a 'Time at mode' downtrend signal in the daily timeframe if it happens, which indicates a drop to approximately 1.51220 within 11-12 bars, but, it also hasn't confirmed yet so I can't specify the ETA and give a signal for entry that won't need daily revision, hence I'm sharing it on a daily basis with my trading signals clients only. A good substitute for this more specific and tighter stop entry, is to simply short a breakout of the last 3 days' range, risking a rally above 1.6025. Good luck, and please, don't go long GBP in any shape or form, the fundamental risks are large. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Short
by IvanLabrie
6
GBPJPY: Speculative long positionWe have an interesting setup here, but it's not for the faint of heart. Risk is big in the Pound pairs, so only risk 0.5% on the long here. The spread with USDJPY might close soon, so you might have sizeable upside in this pair. Invalidation is a move back under last week's open for this trade idea. Good luck, Ivan Labrie. ps: I'm still unsure of the GBPUSD pair, so I'm currently flat, although I'd reccomend caution trading it. Size trades small so you have reasonable risk. Look at the ATR indicator for clues.
Long
by IvanLabrie
GBPUSD: Brave traders, here you have a short ideaWe have an interesting setup in GBPUSD. The loss of momentum in the rally leads to a viable short setup, either at market open, risking a rally to 1.2624, or shorting on a new daily low, risking a new daily high. I expect the next leg to go down, but I'm not sure if we can trend down right away. It's more likely going to chop and gyrate between key levels until the end of the year. We can accumulate short positions on each rally, and with some luck, we might even be able to keep them with break even stops if things go really well. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Short
by IvanLabrie
3
Educational piece: Importance of the highs, lows and closesIn this chart I graph the Aussie dollar in an alternative way. I've hidden the bars and I'm only showing weekly ranges, daily closes and lines corresponding to key levels, both from the options expirations and from other key fundamental events, like the last rate cut in the Aussie and Brexit. The key take away is: people think in levels. People don't think in trendlines, people don't think in moving averages, the common denominator is levels. There are moments, where the most people pay attention to an instrument, and those events generate shockwaves, which mark lines in the sand, which continue to affect prices, making them gyrate between the levels generated by them. You'll see many people say: "The USDJPY will go back to 100" or "S&P500 will go to 1500", "oil will go to 40", "oil will go to 55" but you won't hear them say "EURUSD will go back to the 200 EMA line", outside of technical circles that is. Very rarely people think in those terms. For example, people in Argentina, think about the value of the peso in dollars, it's easy to remember a price, not so much a more complicated construct, let alone a trendline that demands they have graphical depictions of historical prices at hand. Ok, the idea here is, since the most people pay attention to prices, specially during key events, the levels give us reference points, and important prices like the high, low and close of each day, week, month, quarter and year give important clues to us. If you look at the line showing the close of each day, you can see how despite price moving higher than levels, many times the close ends up being lower when resistance acts. You can also see the weekly highs and lows, paying attention to the boxes. See how when a level is taken over, price will form a higher LOW on close before moving higher, or viceversa while moving down. Something as simple as waiting for the daily close, and examining the levels can give us tremendously useful cues for our analysis of price action, this is just one of many elements we use to decipher price action. The purple dashed lines show the 'waves' in a way, how prices form a definitive lowest high, before turning up, and viceversa when turning down. This is very important, and you can see how the top of each move usually aligns with how the highest low is related to the key levels on chart. Now, contrary to what some people would say, the 'support and resistance' levels we have here, are not randomly picked, but logically selected based on key fundamental events that drawed massive interest in the instrument at hand. We don't need to be rocket scientists to see this in the price chart, we simply need a keen eye and dedicating time on improving our analytical skills to find useful patterns. Some of that work, I share with you today. I hope this is interesting and can open your eyes to how price action and markets operate. It is logical, and not the result of mystical forces, complicated equations or complicated systems that attempt to analyze the whole chart and fit a living, breathing being, into a cold shell. That's simply not how markets work. You can refer to my other chart, and read the document I attached to it for information on behavioral finance concepts. My mentor Tim West came up with really powerful tools, and profitable proprietary trading strategies to help us navigate these waters, if you're interested in learning more, contact me for more information. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Education
by IvanLabrie
2
Post-election returns pattern from 1996We have an interesting pattern, going back to the 1996 elections. I overlay the one year inflation adjusted returns of the dollar, S&P500, gold and 30 year treasury yields. I see some paralells regarding price action, and would be interesting to see if we get a similar situation going forward. This is just an observation and what I think is likely to happen based on the pattern of price action after the elections. Feel free to leave your comments. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
TVC:DXY
by IvanLabrie
7
BTCCNY: Daily is neutral here, weekly bullishI'm monitoring the daily chart in BTC. We have a new fundamental key level to add to our arsenal. We need to see bulls form a daily low, that on close, sits above the 4828.24 mark asap, to signal that the capital controls news isn't killing the rally. This might take a couple days. For the time being I'm holding a 15% long position in BTC, and looking to trade short term dips without closing this core position, and rebalancing if need be. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
B
by IvanLabrie
6
USOIL: Update, we picked the bottom (perhaps)As I outlined in my futures chart, we have entered longs once again in oil near yesterday's close. If we keep trucking, we will confirm my analysis, and probably resume the longer term 'Time at mode' uptrend signal spotted in this chart. It not long, you can jump in, although not optimal, risk is still small. Yo be extra safe, you could wait for today's close, and then go long on a new daily high, risking a new daily low under the then lowest daily low in this down swing. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
TVC:USOILLong
by IvanLabrie
2
SPX: You should buy a core long term position hereIt's time to place SPY/SPX longs here, you don't really need a stop loss if it's part of your investment portfolio. You could establish a hedge by buying IBB puts at $255, Dec 16 expiration, but it might not be needed after the smoke clears out. Risk is basically a new daily low, but you could go with a wider stop as well, or none at all and simply size it as a % of your account that fits your risk profile. If going with an investment type position, you would use part of your cash, for a non-leveraged SPY long position, I'd reccomend 10% at least, and you could buy puts at the money in SPY, or IBB, which you can sell for a minor loss once we're confident the bottom's in. Or, you can spend half the cash on SDS longs as well, which would hedge the position with half the cash use. The level we tested here, the speed line support, the VIX retracement BIG$ support, and the sheer panic makes this a possible candidate for a long term bottom in SPX, so don't miss the opportunity. Or, you can believe the boys screaming wolf again... Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
FX:SPX500Long
by IvanLabrie
16