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AUDUSD: RBA key levels analysisAUDUSD gives us plenty of clues whenever we record the key levels after major monetary policy changes or simply news related to the RBA. If we check these levels, also paying attention to levels generated from international events, like Fed news, or events like Brexit, we can get a clear picture of what is more likely to happen and what price has to do to sustain a bearish or bullish bias. If you have any questions let me know. For now, we're long, you can refer to my previous publication. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
Short book: DB - Broke below KEL, fade the short squeezeToday we added a couple shorts, I'm posting the trades we currently have open but not providing entry/stop suggestions. Only trade them if you have a trading strategy, or, ask me if you're interested in learning more about the one we use (Tim West's 'Key Hidden Levels' and 'Time at mode'). We have some worrying bearish signals, so it's a good idea to have a market neutral position, picking stocks to short, while still looking for longs in undervalued companies. See related ideas for the rest of the trades we took. You may still be able to join them or wait for a secondary entry when/if we decide to add to them. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
NYSE:DBShort
by IvanLabrie
XAUUSD: Big volume breakout of downtrend speed line confirmedWe have a valid breakout of the downtrend speed line resistance, confirmed by the huge volume and range of September 21st's daily advance, and validated further by the recent retest of the speed line, which now held as support. I'm long as per my previous publication and added to it on the dip here. Upside is considerable, at least aiming for 1420, to 1475. Stops should go below 1310, or lower. Give it a big enough margin of error. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
14
EURUSD: G20 summit key level supportI'm updating an old chart so you can see how the methodology worked here. EURUSD had a dramatic drop lately, but it has found support at a very important support level originated from price action surrounding one of the G20 summits. In these, typically we've seen attemtps to curb dollar strength, so they have worked well with EURUSD as reference and also, as potential turning points on the day of the events. FOMC and other fundamentally obtained levels are also very good with currencies, specially the Euro. When the most market participants pay attention, we obtain the most significant key levels for support and resistance. The RgMov trend analysis indicator shows us that the bulls are in control of the weekly and daily trends, and since both have hit important levels of support, we can look for longs now. You have a nice setup to go long here, risking a new daily low, and aiming for a retest of 1.1216-1.1261 at least. Good luck! Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
AUDUSD: Key Hidden Levels and Linear regression analysisAUDUSD found support at the upper deviation of the recent downtrend's linear regression channel today. This level coincides with the mid point of the recent VIX 75% retracement, or 'smart money buying spree' key level, which happens after VIX spikes by 5 points or more, and the smart money 'buys the dip' in risk assets, making VIX retrace 75% of its recent climb, reducing option volatility, calming the market and putting a floor below the recent sell off lows. This range, gives 3 levels to monitor on retest, and that's what we have here. Let's see if bulls step in and drive price above resistance, else, the downtrend in AUDUSD will resume. We can enter longs here, or on a new daily high to be more conservative, risking a new daily low. Keep risk at 1% or less. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
1
Long book: WMT at support with solid valuationWMT is offering a great entry for the long term here. Free cash flow yield of 6.8%, earnings yield of 5.6% with very low debt, with a 2.94% dividend yield on top make for a solid spot to acquire WMT shares. You can buy here, or buy gradually over a week/month to average your entry. I'd reccomend either risking a 3.1usd decline, or using no stop and sizing it accordingly to risk 1% of your capital. Alternatively you can sell puts at the money, or at the target, the 80 strike Dec 16 puts pay a hefty premium which makes break even possible close to these prices. Profit is similar to being long shares, but you get cash up front which you can use for other trades. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
NYSE:WMTLong
by IvanLabrie
Short book: FB - Uptrend failure gives us a bearish target nowToday we added a couple shorts, I'm posting the trades we currently have open but not providing entry/stop suggestions. Only trade them if you have a trading strategy, or, ask me if you're interested in learning more about the one we use (Tim West's 'Key Hidden Levels' and 'Time at mode'). We have some worrying bearish signals, so it's a good idea to have a market neutral position, picking stocks to short, while still looking for longs in undervalued companies. See related ideas for the rest of the trades we took. You may still be able to join them or wait for a secondary entry when/if we decide to add to them. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:METAShort
by IvanLabrie
1
Short book: GM broke below earnings support, to follow F soonToday we added a couple shorts, I'm posting the trades we currently have open but not providing entry/stop suggestions. Only trade them if you have a trading strategy, or, ask me if you're interested in learning more about the one we use (Tim West's 'Key Hidden Levels' and 'Time at mode'). We have some worrying bearish signals, so it's a good idea to have a market neutral position, picking stocks to short, while still looking for longs in undervalued companies. See related ideas for the rest of the trades we took. You may still be able to join them or wait for a secondary entry when/if we decide to add to them. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
NYSE:GMShort
by IvanLabrie
HYG/TLT: Short the ratioWe have an interesting pair trade here, you can take a short position in HYG, paired against a long in TLT to capture the profit from the spread closing. Right now, HYG moved too much, relative to TLT, so it's bound to correct back down, giving us a low risk trading opportunity. Position size should be enough to theoretically risk 0.5-1% of the account if price moves 3 times the daily ATR against you on each side (individually). You might have to hold a trade while it's in loss, but the combined profit/loss of the pair will result in a profit if the analysis is correct and this ratio starts to decline sharply. We pointed this trade out at the Key Hidden Levels chatroom today. For more information contact Tim West, or me. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
AMEX:HYGShort
by IvanLabrie
VIX: Short term viewI'm watching VIX closely here. We might get a buy signal as soon as we hit 17.2. Additionally, there's a time and price target for VIX, that if not met in time, signals a buy opportunity in the S&P500. The signal consists of the following: If 18.5 isn't hit by Friday or sooner we will get a bullish signal as soon as VIX makes a new daily low after Friday's close. So, keep an eye on VIX in the next few days, very critical spot right now. To go long, we'll need more confirmation, if these two buy signals were to materialize, but I'll leave those cues to my students and clients. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
TVC:VIX
by IvanLabrie
6
Short book: Dax - Down from ECB key level, next: 10257,9745,9226Today we added a couple shorts, I'm posting the trades we currently have open but not providing entry/stop suggestions. Only trade them if you have a trading strategy, or, ask me if you're interested in learning more about the one we use (Tim West's 'Key Hidden Levels' and 'Time at mode'). We have some worrying bearish signals, so it's a good idea to have a market neutral position, picking stocks to short, while still looking for longs in undervalued companies. See related ideas for the rest of the trades we took. You may still be able to join them or wait for a secondary entry when/if we decide to add to them. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
TVC:DEU40Short
by IvanLabrie
5
USDNOK: Still range boundUSDNOK is giving a good chance to enter longs aiming for the Brexit key level above, which is now acting as a magnetic level, pulling price towards it. The recent drop bottomed and turned around, breaking back above the daily low of the Brexit day, which now serves as a good level to hide our stops and gives us an excuse to go long on dips, or at market if not in it. We also see that the yearly SMA (252 periods) sits right where the Brexit level does, so it's logical to observe 'mean reversion' here. This trade is a good one to have while holding oil longs too. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
USOIL: Short term updateUSOIL has filled our limit buys to take a short term long position, while we hold our weekly buys, and the add on we took recently. We have a validation target that needs to be hit within the next 2 days now. Tomorrow and until Friday, we have very data and news heavy days, so we can expect a sizeable move here, maybe even a make or break moment for this uptrend. If we respect the validation target, we can safely hold longs, if not we'll have to study price action closely, since we might embark in a correction in oil's uptrend. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
TVC:USOILLong
by IvanLabrie
EURUSD: Broke below Brexit support, 1.09115 nextEURUSD didn't hold at the Brexit key level, so we can expect it to drop rapidly towards 1.09115. If we drop down fast enough, a 2-month time at mode downtrend signal might trigger, this would send the price down to 0.87 or so. I'm looking to trade it in the short term, riding swings up and down for now. Currently, the bias is short, we can short on retrace above 1.10931, at market, and/or on a new daily low, risking a rally above 1.11373. Risk 1/3 per entry. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Short
by IvanLabrie
SPX: Watching it closely with no positionI'm holding a few trades (refer to my recent posts) but not in any SPX position. I think we can have a great buy signal soon, so I'm following VIX and the 'Time at mode', linear regression channels and speed lines signals in SPX. This is a 2-day chart, the timeframe in control of the current downtrend. The time and price target suggests price can drop to 2095.3 by or before November 9th. I'll be paying close attention, because if we get a buy signal in that zone, it could be an excellent trade going into the next year. Most people are concerned about the Fed and the elections, and technicals aren't helping, so we can see some divestment or at least everyone getting short. What we need to see is when and where the smart money decides to buy and bid up the market, absorbing all this retail supply, if they do. If not, we have the making of a bear market in equities. Keep close watch of this chart and the levels posted here. Good luck! Ivan Labrie.
TVC:SPX
by IvanLabrie