Trade weighted dollar index: Strong fundamentals and technicalsThe trade weighted dollar index shows a very healthy quarterly rally here. We've now retested the yearly resistance from the previous downtrend, after breaking above it, and it acted as support so it's clear to me bulls are in control. Once we break the previous quarter high, odds of the uptrend resuming will increase, and will be fully confirmed after a 3.70% move up from the previous close during Q3, or if Q4 opens and closes above Q2's high without retesting it.
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Ivan Labrie
Link to Tim West's chatroom: www.tradingview.com
We discuss setups like this often there. Feel free to stop by and subscribe to his indicator pack. If you have any questions ask.
Risk disclaimer: My analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Rgmov
SPX500: Monthly downtrend triggeredThe S&P500 index has fired a monthly downtrend signal yet again. This could be the start of a decline to 1728.30.
Since our upside risk is so minimal, a short trade would be a good idea here. Risk a rally above 2100 to be safe, and target 1728.30. Keep in mind the sideways pattern Tim West had forecasted in his yearly forecast chart. If you haven't seen it, it's a work of art. See related ideas.
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If interested in my trading signals, or in personal tuition, contact me privately. I'm offering a considerable discount on a packaged course which includes access to my private trading signals list for a year.
Cheers!
Ivan Labrie
Link to Tim West's chatroom: www.tradingview.com
We discuss setups like this often there. Feel free to stop by and subscribe to his indicator pack. If you have any questions ask.
Risk disclaimer: My analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
EURAUD: Daily downtrend expired at monthly supportWe have an interesting level below price in the Euro/Aussie cross. It might be interesting to enter longs around this zone, targetting a retest of 1.5225-1.5265 in the coming days. If you enter at market, you should factor in a one average range risk at the very minimum, but it might be safer to use a wider stop, or enter off a shorter timeframe setup.
Considering my long term analysis of the pair, this support level, if it holds, might send the price up strongly, being a big accumulation level, technically speaking.
Check out my updated track record here: pastebin.com
If interested in my trading signals, or in personal tuition, contact me privately. I'm offering a considerable discount on a packaged course which includes access to my private trading signals list for a year.
Cheers!
Ivan Labrie
Link to Tim West's chatroom: www.tradingview.com
We discuss setups like this often there. Feel free to stop by and subscribe to his indicator pack. If you have any questions ask.
Risk disclaimer: My analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
SPY: Daily viewThe daily chart in SPY shows potential hurdles along the way for shorts. I anticipate some reaction to these, in order of importance:
11 month downtrend mode: We need to cross it down and stay under it to trend down.
50% uptrend speed line support: This line should be broken forcefully while falling. Else we'll see a reaction like on the previous bounce.
Brexit key level: It'd be good to break it down to hold shorts with confidence.
75% retracement of Vix spike, smart money support: If smart money doesn't get involved buying against this level, we can hold shorts and relax in the position.
Daily downtrend mode, we have a 12 bar mode between 208.35-208.37, which will trigger a downtrend signal in the daily, aiming for 196.15 before the 21st. If this confirms, and acts as expected, the monthly signal will surely trigger and send SPY down to the forecasted target in my related monthly idea.
Good luck!
Check out my updated track record here: pastebin.com
If interested in my trading signals, or in personal tuition, contact me privately. I'm offering a considerable discount on a packaged course which includes access to my private trading signals list for a year.
Cheers!
Ivan Labrie
Link to Tim West's chatroom: www.tradingview.com
We discuss setups like this often there. Feel free to stop by and subscribe to his indicator pack. If you have any questions ask.
Risk disclaimer: My analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance0.49% on such information.
USDCAD: At a critical spot for dollar longsUSDCAD has a weekly mode below the price, and we're currently above it, on the brink of confirming a time at mode weekly uptrend. The recent uptrend 50% speed line lies below, and this is where buyers have to step in, to remain bullish on this pair. We can enter longs here, and risk a drop to 1.2915, in case the uptrend does confirm and we then resume the march up. This is a lower probability trade, but reward/risk is huge, so it's worth to try and ride the impending uptrend here. Rgmov has been tracing an uptrend, and recently we had a nice oversold dip. Moving above the 'Brexit key level' is of paramount importance, we want to see price traverse the 1.29876 mark with comfort, and quick! Risk half or 1/4 on this entry.
Check out my updated track record here: pastebin.com
If interested in my trading signals, or in personal tuition, contact me privately. I'm offering a considerable discount on a packaged course which includes access to my private trading signals list for a year.
Cheers!
Ivan Labrie
Link to Tim West's chatroom: www.tradingview.com
We discuss setups like this often there. Feel free to stop by and subscribe to his indicator pack. If you have any questions ask.
Risk disclaimer: My analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance0.21% on such information.
Silver: Monthly uptrend updateTraders, we have a very strong uptrend in monthly Silver. You can refer to my previous long term trade idea for more information. It appears we'll test the 25 low volume resistance level, we just have to maintain this pace and break the 13 month level above.
The downtrend mode is the 14 month level labeled above the 25 handle, and I anticipate it might be hit in time, but it's a very long term trade. Before hitting that we will see many daily uptrends and downtrends, and maybe even a weekly or monthly consolidation, so, it'd be paramount to own physical silver and wait for it patiently. If you have paper longs from when I posted my setup, you may hold the trade and let it run. I'll update this chart from here onwards, based on the price action in the coming months.
Check out my updated track record here: pastebin.com
If interested in my trading signals, or in personal tuition, contact me privately. I'm offering a considerable discount on a packaged course which includes access to my private trading signals list for a year.
Cheers!
Ivan Labrie
Link to Tim West's chatroom: www.tradingview.com
We discuss setups like this often there. Feel free to stop by and subscribe to his indicator pack. If you have any questions ask.
Risk disclaimer: My analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance0.59% on such information.
XLE: Potential short setupXLE is right at an 8 month level, and about to hit a key level resistance, so I'd like to get short with a wide stop loss speculating on confirmation of the downtrend continuation in the monthly. You can see the 50% speed line of the recent decline on chart, which would be good to see price respect to stay short or enter shorts here.
Volatility is high, so stick with the 3 ATR stop on chart.
Check out my updated track record here: pastebin.com
If interested in my trading signals, or in personal tuition, contact me privately. I'm offering a considerable discount on a packaged course which includes access to my private trading signals list for a year.
Cheers!
Ivan Labrie
Link to Tim West's chatroom: www.tradingview.com
We discuss setups like this often there. Feel free to stop by and subscribe to his indicator pack. If you have any questions ask.
Risk disclaimer: My analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
BTCCNY: Things might get boring for a whileBitcoin appears to be stalling after an incredible surge when breaking out of a biweekly mode a couple weeks ago. It managed to test a strong resistance at 5047.50 and instantly fell back down, breaking a bar's low. Currently, price rebounded and is trading slightly above a key resistance level, so it'd be possible get a rally in this pair. For now, we might be looking at a triangle type pattern, where there are a variety of smaller trends that fail at extremes, and a rally or sharp drop occur, depending on where price is and other fundamental events in the big picture narrative.
The halving will come soon, this is a highly anticipated event, I'll pay close attention.
Check out my updated track record here: pastebin.com
If interested in my trading signals, or in personal tuition, contact me privately. I'm offering a considerable discount on a packaged course which includes access to my private trading signals list for a year.
Cheers!
Ivan Labrie
Link to Tim West's chatroom: www.tradingview.com
We discuss setups like this often there. Feel free to stop by and subscribe to his indicator pack. If you have any questions ask.
Risk disclaimer: My analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
TSLA: Improving fundamentals and strong price actionTSLA has held a key weekly and daily level, showing great relative strength, and hinting at a rally towards the 215 mark. I'm long from 192.85, as announced in my private signals group, and also posted today at Tim West's KHL chatroom. My stop is 186.09. Today's close shows the bulls are in control, and we can expect buyers stepping in with force asap, probably gapping up tomorrow and rallying with haste. You could sell puts, or buy stock here. Shorting puts can work well with the very high Vix.
Check out my updated track record here: pastebin.com
If interested in my trading signals, or in personal tuition, contact me privately. I'm offering a considerable discount on a packaged course which includes access to my private trading signals list for a year.
Cheers!
Ivan Labrie
Link to Tim West's chatroom: www.tradingview.com
We discuss setups like this often there. Feel free to stop by and subscribe to his indicator pack. If you have any questions ask.
Risk disclaimer: My analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance0.26% on such information.
S&P500: Vix spike retraced after testing Key Hidden LevelWe had a significant rally after Vix spiked 54.47% in 3 days, and the S&P500 index landed right on a Key Hidden Level of support, caused by the smart money buying spree after older Vix fear spikes. Each time the smart money buys the selloffs, they retrace Vix spikes by 75%, and at that point we get these levels, which if they hold, show a bullish bias is a smart thing. In this case, we rallied from it and are now testing a low volume resistance, and showing signs of exhaustion in the intraday rally, on a time at mode basis.
There's a key resistance above, caused by the Brexit activity, which I expect to see tested soon. For now, I'm monitoring this progress, and holding some equity longs, but also adding to my longer term shorts in DB, FB and IBB.
I'll update this chart with more details as they come.
Check out my updated track record here: pastebin.com
If interested in my trading signals, or in personal tuition, contact me privately. I'm offering a considerable discount on a packaged course which includes access to my private trading signals list for a year.
Cheers!
Ivan Labrie
Link to Tim West's chatroom: www.tradingview.com
We discuss setups like this often there. Feel free to stop by and subscribe to his indicator pack. If you have any questions ask.
Risk disclaimer: My analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance0.43% on such information.
IBB: Short IBB at market openIBB is potentially a giant weekly short. I'd like to go short at the open, or if we get a slight retrace, with stops at 257.58.
Target is as low as 207.70, at the ver least. You can see the previous weekly signal on chart to the left, it hit the target and even exceeded it after confirming the decline as per the 'Time at mode' method.
You may pick your preferred bearish strategy, feel free to comment too.
Check out my updated track record here: pastebin.com
If interested in my trading signals, or in personal tuition, contact me privately. I'm offering a considerable discount on a packaged course which includes access to my private trading signals list for a year.
Cheers!
Ivan Labrie
Link to Tim West's chatroom: www.tradingview.com
We discuss setups like this often there. Feel free to stop by and subscribe to his indicator pack. If you have any questions ask.
Risk disclaimer: My analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
GBPUSD: 6m key levels and current trend signalWe have very clear signals in the 6m chart in GBPUSD. This level should support price if bulls have any kind of chance here, else it'll probably follow the forecasted targets on chart, to be reached before July 2021.
This is meant mostly as an analysis piece, but we could look for short term long opportunities from here, simply monitoring short term charts, and paying attention to Vix.
I'll expand with more charts in the comments.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
EURUSD: Weekly mode support held, still sideways/up?EURUSD has deviated from the usual risk off behavior it has exhibited in one year, as you can see when comparing it to inverse IBB in the line chart pair above. The last daily close is right above a low volume support level, but still near the lows. It'd be interesting to see if it resumes the uptrend from here.
I'll be monitoring price action in hourly charts, watching Vix, the Yen, S&P500, as well as gold, bonds and oil to determine what the Euro's direction will be after the Brexit mayhem smoke clears. The fact that the uptrend mode held is bullish, but we'd need to see evidence of a bullish setup forming to go long here.
We can't blindly trade it yet. There is conflict between weekly and daily signals, so for now, we can't trade in this pair, but once it's safe, we'll have a potentially terrific long opportunity if support holds.
Stay tuned for updates on this chart.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
GM: Longer term setupWe have an interesting opportunity in GM. This is a more aggressive entry, but we'll protect the position by writing covered calls against the long trade. We shared this setup in the KHL chatroom today.
Good luck!
Check out my updated track record here: pastebin.com
If interested in my trading signals, or in personal tuition, contact me privately. I'm offering a considerable discount on a packaged course which includes access to my private trading signals list for a year.
Cheers!
Ivan Labrie
Link to Tim West's chatroom: www.tradingview.com
We discuss setups like this often there. Feel free to stop by and subscribe to his indicator pack. If you have any questions ask.
Risk disclaimer: My analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance0.57% on such information.
GGAL: Perfect short setup in the makingGGAL is offering a great short setup here. This is an ADR (American depositary receipt), that is, basically, a foreign stock that is traded in an american exchange. It's of special interest since I'm from Argentina. Fellow argentinians can take note of this setup and trade it in the local market as well. Upside risk is the same, despite the ADR being priced in dollars, so the stop loss is easy to calculate: use the recent highest high.
Target is the bare minimum this stock should fall, and can possibly evolve into a larger move, since the Rgmov indicator is firmly planted in negative territory, without showing any new 44 bar high yet, after plotting a 44 bar low before.
Check out my updated track record here: pastebin.com
If interested in my trading signals, or in personal tuition, contact me privately. I'm offering a considerable discount on a packaged course which includes access to my private trading signals list for a year.
Cheers!
Ivan Labrie
Link to Tim West's chatroom: www.tradingview.com
We discuss setups like this often there. Feel free to stop by and subscribe to his indicator pack. If you have any questions ask.
Risk disclaimer: My analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance0.57% on such information.
BTC, Gold, 10 year notes: UpdateAs I had explained in my previous post, it was likely to see an 'emotional high' in these instruments, followed by a sharp decline.
After this break down, all these instruments are at a major support level once again, and in sync too.
Notes:
I'd get out of shorts here and maybe flip long in a few days.
Gold:
It might have some more room to fall, but if it makes a higher daily high tomorrow, it is possible to see a rally.
If short, cover half and trail the stop to today's high after the close perhaps.
BTCUSD:
I went long with a small risk position, considering a 10% downside risk as worst case scenario. I used spot, have no stop, and no margin. I also bought ETH with a 20% downside tolerance here.
The plan is to capture the upside in BTC and ETH once they resume the weekly uptrends they are in, and avoid losses in a choppy enviroment in gold and notes. The trades have been good so far, so try to protect profits first.
We will see volatility, so it's good to be prepared.
Good luck!
Ivan Labrie.
CUBI: Interesting long setupWe have an interesting setup in CUBI. I have taken many long trades in it before, and this is a good chance to reenter if support holds. Price has hit the yearly SMA, and also hit a weekly range expansion bar's mid point, which usually acts as support during a trend. As a sidenote, we have a 50% speed line support here.
There's an active weekly uptrend, and the target for it is 28.54 to be hit before July 8th. We can enter longs at market open, with stops under 24.71 for a 2.56R trade opportunity here.
Check out my updated track record here: pastebin.com
If interested in my trading signals, or in personal tuition, contact me privately. I'm offering a considerable discount on a packaged course which includes access to my private trading signals list for a year.
Cheers!
Ivan Labrie
Link to Tim West's chatroom: www.tradingview.com
We discuss setups like this often there. Feel free to stop by and subscribe to his indicator pack. If you have any questions ask.
Risk disclaimer: My analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance0.57% on such information.
TWTR: Potential long term long entryTWTR is offering a very interesting long setup here. We can enter longs at market open, with a 10% stop loss, and aim for the 21.04 mark, or potentially higher, in case of a M&A event in the future. TWTR has attractive fundamentals, and a good valuation here, so I think it's a good stock for your portfolio, to avoid being net short at this point (see related ideas).
I'm also short NFLX, MSFT, long NKE and CUBI, and will enter X and V shorts tomorrow. Good luck!
Check out my updated track record here: pastebin.com
If interested in my trading signals, or in personal tuition, contact me privately. I'm offering a considerable discount on a packaged course which includes access to my private trading signals list for a year.
Cheers!
Ivan Labrie
Link to Tim West's chatroom: www.tradingview.com
We discuss setups like this often there. Feel free to stop by and subscribe to his indicator pack. If you have any questions ask.
Risk disclaimer: My analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance0.57% on such information.
BTCUSD, 10 year notes and Gold: Are they ready to fall again?This is a simple analytic piece on Gold, Bonds and Bitcoin. After the Fed meeting yesterday, the market clearly decided the fears of low rates and weak dollar were justified, with a very dovish Fed, and gold and 10 year notes rallied (and quickly chinese buyers followed suit in BTC).
The interesting part is that gold has yet again broken the recent highs, which like we were discussing in the 'Key Hidden Levels' chatroom, might be warning us that there is a Megaphone type pattern unfolding here, contrary to popular belief that this is a consolidation before a giant uptrend starts in Gold.
The gap up in ZN1! is really remarkable here as well, it might give way to a very strong topping pattern soon.
BTC has hit a monthly resistance, but is currently above it. I'm waiting for the month to close to more precisely determine when to short it (if at all). For now you could maybe trade shorter term long setups in it, although it might be dangerous in this climate.
The bottomline is, that for gold and 10 year notes to top, we needed mass hysteria to reach the boiling point and I think this might be it. We'll need confirmation to enter shorts, but if you're long, look to trail your stop or get out, that's my personal reccomendation. The same is true for BTC longs.
I'll update the chart once we get a good short setup in either of these instruments.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
GBPSGD: Interesting long opportunityWe have an interesting setup in GBPSGD, look to enter longs at market open, on dips to support or if we get new highs.
There is potential for the weekly uptrend to resume as well, but ideally we'd want to see price move in our favor right away. As usual, risk a max of 1-2% on this trade if you take it. Stop loss orders should be below Friday's low to be conservative. It's important to give trades just enough room to work.
Good luck!
Check out my updated track record here: pastebin.com
If interested in my trading signals, or in personal tuition, contact me privately. I'm offering a considerable discount on a packaged course which includes access to my private trading signals list for a year.
Cheers!
Ivan Labrie
Link to Tim West's chatroom: www.tradingview.com
We discuss setups like this often there. Feel free to stop by and subscribe to his indicator pack. If you have any questions ask.
Risk disclaimer: My analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance0.57% on such information.
ETHEUR: UpdateWe had massive moves in DAO and ETH pairs today, due to the news regarding a problem with the code in the DAO.
Apparently, the uptrend is still in place, but there is a lot of fear in the air right now. This is the right enviroment to buy dips, and as you can see the support is holding for now (see green triangle and the dashed lines).
Technically speaking, I think the uptrend isn't ready to resume in full force, since we don't have sufficient time spent at these upper echelons (can't blame me for using the term :) ) to prove that there is re-accumulation before uptrend continuation as per the 'Time at mode' rules.
That being said, for as long as we're making 1 new high every 5 bars, we're technically in an uptrend, and for as long as the red dashed speed line holds, bulls are still present in this pair. For now, I reccomend holding ETH if you own any, if you were margin called out of your positions (like I was), sadly you're out with some loss. This brings me to the topic of leverage and crypto trading. If you consider the average volatility these instruments have, paired with the exchanges' problems, right at the worst possible time, you can conclude that is better to just buy the coins with cash, withdraw from the exchange and wait to sell when your price targets are hit, which will force you to adopt smaller position sizes, and trade from a longer term perspective.
I hope you found this useful, I'll keep updating this chart once I see clear signs of the uptrend resuming.
Check out my updated track record here: pastebin.com
If interested in my trading signals, or in personal tuition, contact me privately. I'm offering a considerable discount on a packaged course which includes access to my private trading signals list for a year.
Cheers!
Ivan Labrie
Link to Tim West's chatroom: www.tradingview.com
We discuss setups like this often there. Feel free to stop by and subscribe to his indicator pack. If you have any questions ask.
Risk disclaimer: My analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance0.57% on such information.
GBPNZD: Long from massive supportWe have a terrific opportunity in GBPNZD, as you can see the pair has been in a steady downtrend but it's now against critical support, and evidently, buyers have stepped in aggressively here, which makes me think we will reverse the decline with force.
Sentiment in the Pound is extremely bearish so I would like to fade it, and this pair seems like the ideal vehicle to do so, with the spread between the Pound and the Kiwi being so wide apart from a 1 year perspective.
This can be an ideal long term long, so consider taking it.
Good luck if you, see you at the top!
Check out my updated track record here: pastebin.com
If interested in my trading signals, or in personal tuition, contact me privately. I'm offering a considerable discount on a packaged course which includes access to my private trading signals list for a year.
Cheers!
Ivan Labrie
Link to Tim West's chatroom: www.tradingview.com
We discuss setups like this often there. Feel free to stop by and subscribe to his indicator pack. If you have any questions ask.
Risk disclaimer: My analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance0.57% on such information.
AUDCAD: Interesting spread between copper and oilWe have a very interesting setup derived from the spread between oil and copper, also present in CADUSD and AUDUSD, due to the correlations with these instruments.
You can enter longs in AUDCAD and FCX, and short oil (be it CFDs, futures, ETFs, take your pick). You could replace by copper CFDs or futures as well, but FCX just happens to have a nicer looking chart.
We discussed this setup in the KHL chatroom earlier today.
Check out my updated track record here: pastebin.com
If interested in my trading signals, or in personal tuition, contact me privately. I'm offering a considerable discount on a packaged course which includes access to my private trading signals list for a year.
Cheers!
Ivan Labrie
Link to Tim West's chatroom: www.tradingview.com
We discuss setups like this often there. Feel free to stop by and subscribe to his indicator pack. If you have any questions ask.
Risk disclaimer: My analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance0.57% on such information.