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Ridethepig

ridethepig | JPY for the Yearly Close📌 @ridethepig G10 FX Market Commentary - JPY for the Yearly Close Of course, the breakout here can be bought after so much consolidation but it takes time. Buyers have no worries, since with a solid centre a loose Japanese fiscal and monetary policy is easy enough to map. Even more than that Kuroda and Suga are well seasoned, the logical link here is for USDJPY lower as a safe-haven flow but my models are picking up on it dislocated from the rest of the board on a capital flow basis. We managed to clear the 2020 targets very early and it will be a pleasure to review: ...we have to be interested in how the crowd can be wrong and how they are being led into the wilderness. Japan understood clearly the issue from the centre, unlike the West which have attempted to use monetary policy to cure private debt problems with issuing more private debt. They have breathed this mantra since 1991, in this sense and others they are miles ahead of the West and had a few decades to get to work on it with fiscal policy. We will go into the macro details in the coming days after the round of G10, EM, Commodities, Equities and Yields maps are updated. Then we can open the discussions for all to join in with the macro charts before we go into the short-term possibilities and build the shop for 2021 and beyond. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
14
end of the carry trade The chart below shows when we started to switch sides in yen at 149.3x on October 18th. Three days later, we had FED 'slip of the tongue' admitting being passed the mid-point in rate cycle, and finally the dollar began to cool. BOJ have no option but to move rates higher. The clock is ticking for a move under $125, unlocking $110 and $100 with the full swing. For those following the flows over the past few years this has been a flawless carry trade, presented in a 5-3-5 corrective sequence (since multiple decades), and finally beginning to unwind. In terms of sequencing, Kuroda is out in April, leaving behind inflation on the doorstep and probably the end of YCC. Yen longs continue to make a lot of sense over 2023, near term watch out for some profit taking at $125. Keep short, add on better levels, $132 will cap the highs.
Short
by ridethepig
10
Jackson impacting USDAfter an important Jackson, Powell consistent attempt at persuading (or forcing) equities higher is coming to an end and it is time for a round of chart updates across the board. This sort of tendency, which toys with the idea of tapering and rolling up purchases should be seen as such; USD shorts are increasingly less appropriate; but here the dominating factor between the two currencies is the transition to CBDCs and a race to the bottom. The well being and woes of China who are already miles ahead in their fourth beta test, will determine effectively who cancels the currency first. A very plausible move throughout 2020 since buyers remained hesitant to play the safety leg. I was hesitant to play the leg higher but this decision made things a lot easier. The correct course now is switching to a new course, this time an ABC sequence towards 7.31x (+13% from current levels) into 2022 to offer lasting protection, invalidation for this move will come below March 2018 lows (-3% from current levels).
Long
by ridethepig
10
Long Volatility into AugustBy now you all know the drill. Let's start with an initial framework, assess the current environment, and evaluate all below questions. are we trending or ranging? - a series of higher highs, higher lows - sellers structure is broken, we are tracking whether buyers will protect or find it difficult to hold discount? - we are tracking the lows for the previous wave block - Support 20, Pivot 25, Resistance 38 managing trade? - Trading and assess based on quarters, 00, 25, 50, 75 - Market participation in form of current strength/weakness, when market is weak we are sellers and when strong we are buyers This position, technically speaking, is very similar to the swing we traded in 2020. Buyers have developed a structure of higher highs, and higher lows, and desire their chance to go over to a direct attack on the highs. In this case the result is not certain; but since attacking in this fashion is characteristic of a volatility event. There are two lines, assuming the 20 support holds. In the first case, as well we need to track 25, the combinatory breakout of 25 will allow buyers to continue their summer dance with a romantic hue, unlocking 38 for August.
TVC:VIXLong
by ridethepig
5
Pound weak and isolatedThe threat on the long term chart is unpleasant for GBP, 1.15xx and 1.05xx have been set up. Just at the right moment, because BOE cannot now recapture the short-end of the rate curve with inflation still to reach his goal. To open things up, a simple test below 1.175x is all that is needed with Jackson to unlock the flow; a textbook swing ever since we saw restraint at 1.40xx. If 1.175x is taken then 1.15xx is next to account, leaving 1.05xx wide open for this to collapse like a house of cards. After 1.15xx, I suspect the helplessness of buyers will be quite touching. This swing position is technically very similar to the previous GBP waterfalls we traded together with Brexit, Elections etc, a classical momentum move. The prognosis for the Jackson flow seems quite good for sellers (not overwhelmingly so for those who are still sidelined). A test of the barricade at 1.19xx seems manageable, and where I am actively looking to add shorts, because for that the buyers would have been exhausted. Please note, invalidation only with closes above 1.20xx. A master plan! Let's see how our counter attack move plays out.
Short
by ridethepig
8
Revisiting BTCTime to start dusting down our BTC charts... It's been a few since we've looked at this in great detail, time to dig deeper and pick out some key areas to start monitoring for doing business in From a waves perspective, despite the retrace, Buyers are in full control with $218,000 now the next target in the crosshairs. XBTUSD directional bias also has very important characteristics and implications for a retreat in US hegemony with further instability across democracies expected until we (the people) decisively level up our technologies, voting systems etc. Eyeballing momentum for later this year as we advance into this new world via CBDCs. Grab what you can. Preemptive positioning and loading at current levels is the name of the game.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by ridethepig
19
ridethepig | USDMXN immediate mobilisationAnother typical procedure can be seen here, the combined advance by buyers cannot be prevented in the long run. This advanced would (and now we are seeing....) lay bare the base on the strong support at 18.9x. Much worse for Sellers, the attack on the highs involves 22.9/23.0 as a main target. For the strategy, the correct plan now consists of holding and adding as sellers continue to flee. As well as USDMXN, we have also spoken about BRLMXN several times, we must not forget the following swing of the year. The imprisoned MXN is in a difficult position and lacks protection from BDM. Pips are for pipsqueaks, macro currency swings for a +58% can be played in many different ways.
Long
by ridethepig
4
USDJPY (Full Review)The dynamic strength of the greenback This strength lies in the lust to expand from the base (= the tendency towards 103xx-104xx) and further in the circumstances where technical breaks occurred or are made possible. Seller's outpost at December 2016 highs is falling apart from the Fed superiority. Buyer's are now showing that momentum can be keenly exercised in the break above 118.6x. An examination of the before and after gives an undoubted advantage to buyers. The Yen as endgame weakness Critical for an evaluation of the issues raised is the fact that the war/sanctions are causing Japan to lose much of its glory to the Panda. There is no longer any likelihood of shifting gears. Japan has not yet somehow managed to get going again in the middle game and it looks inevitable. Yen is suffering a lot not only because of BOJ isolation and need of protecting, but also because the technicals are so weak. Consider for example when we were sitting at 108xx with an ABCDE slingshot. Now it is clear...The triangle was used for centralising and manoeuvring to form a gateway. All possible movement ever since has been with an impressive degree of one-sidedness; the latest break of 118.6x is unlocking 126xx in the coming weeks/months. Let's sum it up: Buyers are still aiming for the 150 target in an ABC that appears to be a done deal once above 125.8x, whereas sellers remain extremely weak. In addition with quad witching now cleared, the 118.6x break is important unlocking a structural 'crash' and burn momentum move in Yen for this week onwards.
Long
by ridethepig
8
ridethepig | Wheat for the Yearly Close📌 @ridethepig ZW1! Market Commentary 17.12.2020 For buyers the breakout creates the typical starting point, one we have seen many many times before. The fact it is happening on the monthly chart is very telling, this is threatening to impulsive explode to the topside via shortages on the supply side from lockdowns and contractions in globalisation. Whatever may be the case on the climate side (and I am certainly no expert here) it has been one of the biggest crops on year for Russia. Fertile farming at its best... Tracking closely the 600 support, for a move towards 900 and 1350 ... watch out for any battle against this in the coming weeks as we enter into a commodity cycle. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
CBOT:ZW1!Long
by ridethepig
3
Food shortages entering back into playThe playbook for manoeuvring - actively adding longs We can start with a quick review of the general plan for the operation I shall be discussing. I imagine all sitting in longs from earlier in the year are ready to exploit greater freedom of movement which we we will posses a tick above August highs. So to seize the point, our attack is a momentum move, like a sailing boat when we get caught in the wind. Eyeballing a test of first targets at 900 as early as the yearly close. As can be seen from above, it would be quite wrong to describe these moves here as anything but painful for consumers. Depending on the price action at 900 we are flirting to unlock the GFC highs. We are 23% and counting, time to start swinging the bat!
CBOT:ZW1!Long
by ridethepig
5
ridethepig | Australian Yields for the Yearly Close📌 @ridethepig AU02Y Market Commentary 18.12.2020 This position which arises after the telegraphed breakout from the 10Y and thus creates space for the front end. A typical manoeuvre for the AU and NZ yields: The analysis of the starting position shows us that the control now exists on the bid; because we know that it is the path of least resistance, so the rule is; when the market is strong we are buyers and when weak, we are sellers. The AUD which is being "flanked" from all sides (FED, RBNZ et al) now has commodity shortages entering into play to put the cherry on top. Remain bid AUD for as long as possible; maintain contact with commodities for this cycle. Thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
TVC:AU02YLong
by ridethepig
Buckle up!Dear reader How nice to see you again. I have been busy with public and private clients since 2020, and although I continue to take a keen interest in markets and etc, I no longer have much time other than the (very) occasional consultancy for detailed writings. I am looking for a solution as even the weekends cannot tempt me back into regular updates! There are a couple of trades though that I hear interesting things about - whether they will be suitable for your portfolios, I do not know, but they may be worth considering: Stay Long USDJPY looking for 150, and Short Gold for 1510. Full disclosure I am in full positions in both, Long USDJPY we have covered in great detail already, as with Gold . My in-depth knowledge of the commodity sector is decreasing now as I am further away from it, but from what I hear, these two are capable both medium and long term. I hope this information might be useful to you. I would be grateful for anonymity as a source. Wish you all the best for Q1. Thanks again!
Long
by ridethepig
5
EURUSD - Roads to the mastering of positional play(an affinity between 'C' legs and 'impulsive' swings.... patience pays) 1. Counter the false conception that every single break lower has to produce an immediate effect; waiting plays and methodical moves are totally justified. 2. Recognise the idea of prevention in this breakdown as being a key reversal in play! With this in mind, the struggle for sellers to keep buyers from breaking up, and in doing so preventing any sense or organisational defence to your position is just asking for trouble. Technically we are at a very important point, a lot of air above till 1.19 and 1.21. 3. Have tremendous respect for wave strategy, avoid any premature moves, when the timing is right, begin to flank your opponent and play to operate under the watchword of centralisation. 4. Aim for a total swing, if you are not in from 1.161/1.162, 1.168x, still a great deal of mobility in the risk to reward at these levels. The barrier at 1.15 on the one side, with very little till 1.21 to the other. 5. Get used to inflation becoming the restraint of ECB; do not let Lagarde lip service approach intoxicate your decision making. 6. What is important here to remember, play is an attack, not defence, but only momentum! For those who were following the earlier stages in this leg, we are trading a very similar setup to:
Long
by ridethepig
16
ridethepig | Dollar Breaking OutIn the comments on the previous chart, we became better acquainted with the technical resources available and the lines in the sand which sellers were using to defend the topside in dollar. Since this should hopefully be of great practical value, and why I love talking markets on tradingview rather than twitter is because we can follow up with second and third charts to show progress in the instructive manner. We knew the highs were playable, a more solid flow to 95.4x is/was wide open. Now buyers have taken the highs, they can begin to squeeze their opponent slowly, though this attempt could well be parried as we still inside an expectation of a corrective ABC (my suggestion). The swing up which is in play and needing to be reached to reload resources, such as: => 95.4x => if broken ... then 96.3x You should take a look at the swings which arise here. It seems to me Powell accepted defeat with Jackson. A very restrained move, which has been decided upon via tapering expectations and the dollar being the most effective place to park capital. Remember they have never defaulted on the currency, we are watching the door close in China, Russia, the Middle East and to a lesser extent Europe via the introduction of CBDC's.The position we have here at 96.3x appears really harmless but it is actually extremely dangerous, an impulsive leg in dollar will send shockwaves across the FX board and with both inflation and deflation are knocking at the door, equities are like a deer in the headlights.... in positions like this, we should play with extreme care.
TVC:DXYLong
by ridethepig
8
Santa rally cooking...After the latest moves there is a strategically interesting structure setting up for the year end flows. Here I am tracking a pullback towards $52,000 support for an opportunity to load for the next exchange. In desperation, late buyers succumbed to the fomo which was buying the highs while sharp hands are taking profits (very similar to our latest ETH charts). Now that the highs have been taken, profit taking becomes apparent. This excellent setup is remarkable not only for the transfer of the momentum, breakout, retrace, breakout, nowadays we consider wave 5 to meet at least the length of wave 1 which will take us at least above $75,000 with extensions (unbelievable) all the way at $217,000.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.P
by ridethepig
12
Tidying Up...Flows into USD continue with yields unlocking potential for flattening. The latest breakdown in euro is calling for a reassessment across all charts, did not expect the pullback to come this far, so we will go through the process over the coming sessions. An interesting environment, we are in the middle of summer with thin liquidity and technical discipline needed. ↳ Eyeballing 1.162x for strong support, Nov-20 lows should be enough to lean on. ↳ Looking at the macro charts below, the price action is supportive and we should see 1.161/1.162 comfortable hold a breach below the 1.15 barrier will imply the LT base is not yet complete and unlock a test of parity (not expected). ↳ Inflation can provide the momentum above 1.185x (30th July highs) and indicate we are already on track for the 1.21 and 1.25 initial targets in this next wave.
Editors' picks
Long
by ridethepig
38
ETH Market Commentary 23.09.2021After an impressive breakout, the next leg now follows (there was also the simpler ETHBTC play where buyers have succeeded and are ready to play the next deflection). On the ETHUSD side, buyers have created a chance for Q4 to attack the highs. Sellers did not want to hold past the C leg which is screaming in advance that sellers are really only masked buyers and the direction decisively favours the topside. So now with this deflection from the C lows, the previous highs have been taken unlocking tempo for buyers. The next leg is impulsive on account of the trap and unwinding. The position should reach $3,600 in the coming sessions comfortably with $4,000 the next target in scope.
BITMEX:ETHUSD.PLong
by ridethepig
ridethepig | ETH grinding higher...A remarkable bounce from the lows. Despite the lack of material interest, a momentum attack is in the air and it cannot be shaken off. From here till the end of 2021 there are some nice swings ahead. After breaking back up, buyers won back the tempo. Note how sellers did not make use of the discovered 'C' target lows and how they got tangled up among their own? ... then of course the breakout came.... Tightening the noose !!! After bulls took back $3,000 the highs have been unlocked - it should lead to momentum. Here looking to clear partial profits on the test of our $3540 pivot.
BITMEX:ETHUSD.PLong
by ridethepig
3
The EscapeThe position arising here is another freeing move. After sellers surrender the $3,500 pivot, it constitutes for a typical cascading of stops - the squeeze manoeuvre we have been tracking for a while finally is beginning to play out. Let's start with a traditional recap of the swing we have been tracking the past few sessions; The analysis of the starting position was showing us the ABC sequence had been fulfilled and buyers were ready to conduct a flanking attack. This quick-witted move was administered with precision. In this case, the china noise is the same as someone being threatened by a mugger with a weapon, and the person deciding to grab on, continuing to hold, in an attempt that they cannot be hit.
BITMEX:ETHUSD.PLong
by ridethepig
6
Breaking cooking in AUDJPY Clarity around the nucleus of the swing designed to restrain It is an interesting breakout we have here in the diagram, representing a major impulse (sounds nice, right?!), and so the origin is a hawkish fed and evergrande mini deal; I want to clear something up as I know there is a lot of panic on the wires with some looking at the lows. There is a major classification problem; For those technical traders that understand the creation of an outside candle, it is a way to restrain extremes and neutralise opponents via the open trap. In this position, a lot stood like a dear in the headlights into Fed with the majority of threats: one clearly consists of the taper advance, the other in evergrande etc. So where does the restrain come from? Well by blocking 78/79 then possibly a momentum break through 79 quarters and getting into 80. The whitespace is clear, the difficult work has been done, the above mentioned diversions opened up an attacking radius!
Long
by ridethepig
3
150 in the crosshairs for USDJPYThe best move in FX, since 2020 was the idea of early development of the base in USDJPY, let's start with a quick chart review which really got into the heart of the matter. This update is much more about the technical configuration and how to work with an impulsive move. Unlocked. As is now becoming clear to many analysts, USDJPY is playing towards the 150 macro level, this is in a certain sense an impulsive leg; the C leg of an ABC correction, would bring into its own 5-3-5 majority. Fresh sellers will refrain from stepping against this train. Rightly so, because here would be the typical example of false prevention, which only manages to create new weaknesses eg from early soft sellers which will provide fuel to play against the isolated highs. Thanks as usual for keeping your support coming with likes, comments and etc!
Long
by ridethepig
9
Checking in w/ GoldThe mysterious selling at 1775 (or not so surprising for those who have been tracking the flows since the last diagram). This linkage was known to the pseudo-classical school of TA. The other highlights are going to USDJPY which was reckoned to be such a move to 150. The 1775 previous support has become resistance for our opponent (and if we are able to test, then we know buyers are "wasting their time" there). Such a move should be faded, never play without being aware that you are sacrificing a certain effectiveness by not selling the steel resistance at the top of the range but we are preventing our opponent and rendering them with more difficulty. If we recognise that any attempt of a breakup from out opponent is not a genuine one (i.e it does not lead to the freeing of the structure) then it would be highly uneconomical to not add offers to the basket. Failing that, a break below the 1725 lows will trigger a waterfall into the 'C' target located at 1520. The bet was to load on 1775 with NFP outguessing the early development of a swing down, it does not really get much simpler than this for those configuring positions. A break of 1725 is next in play and will open the floodgates, soon all will become clear. Buyers attempting to play any early advance are at risk of total annihilation.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by ridethepig
14