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Ridethepig

ridethepig | EURGBP Market Commentary 2020.08.14EURGBP finding a bid from 0.900x as widely expected since earlier in the month. Here actively adding longs on the pullback for a move towards 0.915x highs. Little Britain are still nowhere near out of the woods yet with the 'oven ready’ Brexit still to come later this year. For those wondering why not Cable? It’s very tough to time a bottom in the dollar with the artificial devaluation underway, flows will eventually exhaust hence recommending caution in GBPUSD. My preferred vehicle for expressing a weaker GBP and profiting from the economic bondage is EURGBP. On the technical side, those with a background in waves will know we are preparing for an impulsive wave targeting the 0.908x and 0.914x minimum flow. Eyes on the close today, a lot of talk making the rounds of a pound clearout. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
6
ridethepig | A -50% correction for LYV in play📍 The best move, since the highs are defended from the earlier developments is not really to get into the heart of the issue. Rather we need to discuss the configuration and how to build the trade around the freefall. LYV (Live Nation Entertainment, Inc.) is particularly exposed to pockets of further lockdowns which we are already starting to see in some states. As will sadly become clear approaching elections is in a certain sense the vaccine promotion will become more about substance rather than headlines. And now, I ask you; why does this matter for sellers? The headlines driving businesses exposed to social distancing restrictions are coming to the end of the dead-cat-bounce. It is unlikely we see moderations of social distancing until early-mid 2021 and depending on the severity of the second wave, 2022 expectations can be hit badly meaning instead of finding a strong bid at the lows we can enter into an inertia free fall until we clear the virus completely. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
NYSE:LYVShort
by ridethepig
3
ridethepig | BTC Market Commentary 2020.08.04The control belongs to buyers no matter whether it is your bias to fade this move or continue riding the pig. It is Buyer's move and they are playing to damage their opposition with much effect. The capitulation from sellers here will be brutal as we start to see the liquidity trap. The buyers are rushing to capture an appropriate amount of safety and scarcity in BTC, perfectly reasonable behaviour when we are at this stage in the cycle and with confidence in public assets diminishing. It is not only the case with BTC, but also with other Crypto majors that the flows are coming. Bitcoin is really starting to trade well even with Equities starting to look heavy. Flows are clearly leveraged dollar selling and also real money parking for the MT and LT. The moves will get sharper after the breakout on the log chart feels like we could easily continue to $13,000 in the short-term. As usual thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by ridethepig
9
ridethepig | EURGBP Market Commentary 2020.08.03📌 Here we have a relatively straight forward move in play. After EUR held the lows buyers can follow through; true, clearly sellers are not in control and failed to obtain the powerful ABC sequence main target. In other words... buyers are aggressive, GBP exposure would be better off elsewhere. The mobility of UK market access will contract (at least in the short-term) with NDB and it's an illusion to say otherwise. EURGBP buyers can enter into play here and on the break attacking new highs at 0.925x as a quick flow target. Invalidation in the swing comes into play below 0.893x as at that moment it would be appropriate to bring things closer to home. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
10
ridethepig | DXY Market Commentary 2020.06.15A quick update here for those tracking the entire swing in Dollar: It would be more natural to develop in this structure with a test of 99, since the impulsive sequence (if it is such) must eventually test 92.92 to complete the move. To keep up the pressure on USD the social focus will instead switch towards Atlanta and health focus on virus cases which sadly are shooting higher once more. To exploit the USD "weakness" the positions are more of one: 📍For those tracking Short-term flows: 📍 For those tracking the Long-term Macro chart: As usual thanks all for keeping the likes, comments, charts and questions rolling!
TVC:DXYShort
by ridethepig
3
ridethepig | GBPCAD Market Commentary 2020.07.24⚡️ GBPCAD Fast Flows Here we are trading the breakdown in GBPCAD, with the possible intention of adding on momentum. The question is whether Seller's position is strong enough to put up with such a hammer? Possible similar moves to the previous crash which we traded live: By losing yesterday's lows in GBPCAD, buyers defeat will be seen and the combination of a minimum ABC sequence follows. Tracking 1.708x => 1.689x as the combination blow. But we can of course take it leisurely, assuming the breakdown occurs the flows will be so strong that we need have no anxiety of continuing to add size on. This is because we are able to avoid with a cheeky grin all of our unaware opponents, no matter the reply. Strong and decisive... but so clean and simple. One of my favourite moves. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Short
by ridethepig
7
ridethepig | Temporary High Cooking For Gold📍 Equity Liquidations Feb/March 2020 Gold buyers now hold a solid position, since the break of 1750 our opposition has been trying to get blood from a stone. The solidity behind the bull case has been so strong to date and it shows in itself the fact that 'everything is not roses' despite how the politicians and media sell re-openings and activity data. The highs cannot be ignored here, we have been tracking the $1,900 target together and came +/- within crumbs yesterday but failed for the official tick. The break. The move is still premature on account for those wanting to swing into the $2,000's and beyond. Challenging the bull case here is deflation and liquidations in equities. Retail have been sent into the wilderness, which in no way can turn into the Edenic garden they hope for. Note how the original 5 wave sequence started in 2018 when we traded live the assault from the lows: Buyers have had the upper hand ever since, sellers are hoping to prevent for as long as possible the annoying move to all time highs. In order to liberate the $1,900 highs buyers will need to pullback and allow equity liquidations to take place and secure the required energy. So those looking to take shorts in the same way we switched sides earlier in the year, we can calmly finish our profit taking from longs and look for the appropriate welcome of offers into the book. Note how we are combining defence at soft resistance and ONLY aiming to attack when we see a closing BELOW yesterdays low (1865.xx in spot). To put simply, we are outguessing profit taking in and the strategic start of wave 4 which will last into September. As usual thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by ridethepig
18
ridethepig | ETH Market Commentary 2020.07.24⚡️ ETH Fast Flows... A very technical picture here... The traditional rule for BTC and other major cryptos, when the tide rises all boats rise. In order for this to be successful, the terrain on which we move forward must somehow be positive for Crypto as a whole. The characteristics of confidence in public assets is diminishing, various capital movements are screaming precisely that. For example, here the pullback was so shallow we are forced into playing the momentum gambits which continue from that point onwards. So the next flow to consider here after the break of the fortified sellers defence is for a test of $300. All the operations will create new threats and strategically valuable areas which will strive to dissect although with very moving markets it can be difficult go get the ideas published here in time. The fact that BTC is gunning for $10,800 is very positive and clear proof of the underlying strength of the crypto crowd. Note also the manoeuvres on the break which often become pivotal! As usual thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
COINBASE:ETHUSDLong
by ridethepig
4
ridethepig | Chinese Equities ... The Slaughtered PigThe "hanging" candle The problem is as follows: If the only way to reach risk-on in and remove social distancing is either via a vaccine (most preferred option although not really in scope till 2021) or further extreme lockdown measures (as you all know extremely costly and damaging to the monetary side) to completely remove the virus from circulation. With all roads towards confidence blockaded, it's more advisable to take a contrarian stance to the equity promoters. This is not an easy one to add too. It depends on the circumstances next week, namely on the virus front as Europe looks set to follow the US and lose control. This is something I would like you all to anticipate: it is all too easy as for the Robinhood pawns who tend to be weak when tested. The flows are as follows: 1️⃣ the flows themselves in US equities are open to attack 2️⃣ the final nail in the coffin comes from long bonds which are too much pressure to maintain: this means that the necessary complacency forces retail to buy all the junk while those smart enough unload and exert Puts / shorts. Here the notion of parking capital in China in the short-term turns out to be deceptive and soft. Once more the reason can be found in the previous SHCOMP swings: in diagrams attached below you will see excellent examples of PBOC blockaders and failures. Ride the PBOC, Feb 3rd 2020 The attempt to ride the CB flows, the hanging lows were relatively obvious and panic creates weakness which can be bought with confidence like passing clouds. SHCOMP Market Commentary, Feb 24th 2020 The pullback was a result of the PBOC and sharp hands. Many moons ago I would've been convinced by this market...not today. This leads to the long run choppy conditions and unfavourable outcome of soft hands who placed their stops too blatently. The sell side is still there on the move, ride weakness is the strategy and balance out at key support levels. Thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
SShort
by ridethepig
13
ridethepig | The Nature of the Work Breakouts and impulsive swings 📌 @ridethepig June Map Buyers had the move and played to exchange at the key support lows, which despite the length of compression can also be expressed in an impulsive breakup in no other terms than: Buyers in full control and gunning to take out the highs in the compression range. I managed to carry out the deeply laid plan towards the second target although it should have been broken on the first test in my opinion as was well within reach. I see no other ending here than for BTC to outperform, the 'ideal asset' for a time when confidence in the public sector is diminishing by the hour. Things proceed as follows: buyers load the 9012.x lows and accumulation begins. And now that we are finished with this phase we can clear the way for buyers to test 10,800.x into August. Here the only prevention can come from state bans on exchanges although the inevitable outcome in this case would be, as many know, private markets and auctions. In the swing cooking here, buyers are liberated from the grips of compression, an interesting setup! How keenly will buyers attempt to achieve the ground? Where are sellers stops? Why? For those wanting to further the conversation we can track the inner flows together in the comments below. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by ridethepig
13
ridethepig | A retrace in play for home fitness📌 Peloton One of the aspects of consumer behaviour that has changed the most over the past few months has been the approach to fitness and home-enablers. As we introduced a deep and accurate buy approach it helped that Fed and other CB's helped to raise the bar even higher with their ambitious and methodical (right...) approaches. So, as with many other improvements, the $2,000 coat hanger consists of a monthly subscription service which members can go through daily. However we would need to see consumers continue to cough up $2,000 for an exercise bike when the economy is tanking. We are certainly not ready for mass adoption and growth until the economy heals. Armed with a pair of trainers and one can produce the same outcome although I refuse to demonstrate illustratively ... maybe one day on Tradingview streams! In any case, the format of the flow is quite simple. Throughout the impulsive leg it was a matter of letting bulls over-extend before finding a comprehensive fade. As usual thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
NASDAQ:PTONShort
by ridethepig
17
ridethepig | ETH Market Commentary 2020.07.23The number of available entries in ETH, to a certain extent compensates those short-term speculators as we can get this to $300.00 relatively quickly with no more protection. => As the saying goes.. ' A rising tide lifts all boats ' This illustrates the play on the BTC wings. It is also characteristic for the fearless to generate alpha and neglect sellers weakness across the major cryptos. ETH will benefit from the general optimism around the Crypto board as well as the latent dollar weakness. I wouldn't be surprised if we saw more ETH buying, especially since EOS is likely to remain in first gear for the foreseeable future. Here $250/$255 is the preferred entry. ...a momentum break above $270 is also worth considering if we are unable to get enough size on the pullback. There doesn't seem to be any significant resistance level from here, will track $300.00 as a healthy target. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
BITMEX:ETHUSD.PLong
by ridethepig
4
ridethepig | KRW Q3 Macro Flows📌 A short update here for those tracking USDKRW ... It has been a very slippery pig since the last update: Here buyers stormed into control and chose to occupy the bid protecting 1140 via Covid flows. The relieving of this profit taking has become a bit more enterprising possibly via the idiosyncratic spike in cases for the U.S. The next moves are cooked and almost ready to go... since the centralisation of EM FX has taken place, the board is forced to exchange in the same swing. Vaccine headlines are coming in from all angles, more fiscal and CB stimulus are also there for the last few days of July for markets to get stuck into. Typically we will see the ebb and flow in risk start by August, thin and choppy liquidity markets in the middle of summer make forr useful loading zones in calm waters. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
1
ridethepig | AUD Market Commentary 2020.06.15For this one we are talking about an extremely disruptive swing that will continue to cause high beta FX outflows in the immediate term. The nice problem we have on our hands with this, is that we are now entering into a new long-term bullish trend for AUDUSD. So we 'know' this pullback will have a minimum flow towards the 0.650x handle before bulls have to deal with a completely new decision point. Since I considered the said bounce from the lows, a complete 5 wave sequence right on time for Fed and called live here, the strategic rule that one must now to cover and protect. In the long run, the positional struggle comes down to a struggle between USD devaluation via FED and restraining tendencies towards high beta fx. In this all embracing dance with risk, though an important strategy in itself is to remember it is only a means to an end.
Short
by ridethepig
6
ridethepig | Sovereign Debt Crisis Cooking!This looks like the real deal... the trip we are planning for Gold here should be carefully mapped before making the play. 📍 If possible make use of the ' momentum ' Entice the sellers with obstacles inside 1820-1810 rage (a temporary stopover to collect energy). All that before playing the impulsive manoeuvre. Compare also this diagram: For its own sake, previous 1650 and 1700 resistance became latent support to help plug the ladder. The appetising bulls are now ready to march towards $1,900. An old, old story, but constantly worth playing for those tracking the recession the flows in Gold have been clean and simple for a while. There is no motivation for sellers and neither a reason to close longs. Buyers are in full control, the advance through $1765 will confirm the move. Lets see if we can get it for the Weekly Closing. With Covid boredom kicking in and retail participation through the roof we have all the boxes ticked to complete the Sovereign Debt Crisis. Smelling a massacre in the coming sessions for Equities, full of energy and arrogance of a second wave. Gold longs are the gentler approach, a worthwhile virtue. GL.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by ridethepig
9
ridethepig | TRY Q3 Macro Flows 📌 The buyers constitute a formidable opponent holding the breakup and putting sellers out of action. The moves are ready, to fend off another wave of risk looks impossible now and Turkey will suffer a major hammer that may be unendurable for local banks. A break above 7.20xx will unlock the widely track 7.80xx since last year. If buyers hold (and it looks a done deal now) for this monthly closing pattern it means we are ready to march forward in August and September to cripple EM FX. But if sellers hold at the end (seems very difficult with USD shortages entering back into play) then buyers are kept busy. Naturally continue to follow the macro strategy, on account of the 2020 macro flow map: Another move that would be difficult for Turkey to defend against. If you are bearish, continue sticking the knife in via buying USDTRY because it would no longer be possible to prevent the settling above 7.20xx. 📍 The other important note to make is the lack of foreign inflows... rather the opposite, heavy outflows continue with overseas participation in Turkish bonds now at record lows, as is usually the case in the end of dictatorships. There is nowhere for the CBRT to hide.. they will have to devalue the TRY to offset the loss in access to markets. Take a look over at EURTRY which is still up at ATH's ... this retrace is profit taking in the dollar train rather than Turkey stabilisation. Stay long, look for 7.80xx as the main macro target by year-end. As usual thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
4
ridethepig | Tracking CNH Extremely Closely🔸 China Macro Flows 🔸 The point of this configuration is that CNH is influencing the currency, equity and commodity board that can be seen in AUDUSD, NZDUSD, OIL, Gold and everything in-between...USD's cannot make any use of the Yuan devaluation and this has been a threat ever since Saudi unlocked the CNY oil contract. For those tracking the Long-term Macro Playbook we are reaching the first area of strong support. Now that all the pieces to the global economy are hanging by a thread, it will be difficult to continue betting on the downside in USD until we clear the second chapter in covid. To put simply, expecting a temporary stop-over till 2021 as markets will have a difficult time from August convincing people to stand as guarantors to CNH till year-end. The "Giant Panda" has been playing a 🔑 role in sitting on the AUD bid...however, in an ever changing environment the arrival of Covid Chapter II will make things even more complex. Highly recommend digging deeper into the AUDCNH and NZDCNH which are both experiencing the slingshot as widely expected since the start of the pandemic: 📍 AUDCNH 📍 NZDCNH ... As you all know by now the Oil devaluation gave China a third lever to control its C.A surplus - by devaluing the black stuff it was the equivalent of devaluating the Yuan. As long as we get another hammer in Oil then it will offset any upside in CNHUSD, the only way that the U.S. can manoeuvre around this is by pushing up the price of XAU in USD terms. Why❓ ... Well as we can trade GC1 and CL1 in both USD and CNY terms it means the Gold:Oil ratio is indirectly tightening the noose on the petrodollar market. Despair. It illustrates the unhealthy stance of the energy market and the 'checkmate' from China/Russia. The textbook move involves a pinning of USD and US Equities. We are still not quite there yet where the USD can begin the waterfall devaluation, it will take a Plaza Accord 2.0 to trigger such an event and until the dollar peaks Equities will remain vulnerable to gyrations in risk sentiment. Those who are betting on the CNHUSD breakdown are also aiming for a retest of support at the March lows in SPX, NQ and DJIA... The USD will still be the safest place to park in Covid Chapter II. 📍 The Dow 📍 Shanghai Comp Highly recommend tracking CNH in the 'endgame' of the economy cycle. Typically recessions last 5 Quarters in time and it is far from unusual to see 2 or 3 of those Quarters as dead-cat-bounces. If you are still in any doubts of the picture equity promoters are painting, please take a look at Long Bonds which are refusing to subscribe to the V-shaped consensus view. As usual thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Short
by ridethepig
1
ridethepig | USDMXN Market Commentary 2020.07.19Ok let's get started with the next round of important chart packs and fundamental updates 📍 On the fundamental side in USDMXN - as strange as it sounds all eyes are on the other side of the Atlantic. Once again politics in Europe is getting in the way, with discussions on the recovery fund coming to a close this weekend and looking like we are going to see this delayed till September with one more round of sabre rattling from the frugal four. With Covid still in play, any risks to more free money will add to a continuation of worries and anxiety. This can cap the highs in EURUSD for those tracking the flows: We cleared the first macro target on time; although any push higher will be difficult without the official ✅ from the EC. Without that, risk is broadly exposed and the only way to defend against this in USDMXN is by sacrificing the MXN. Buyers have held the 61.8% after a hard battle; see the end of the previous chapter, from last year. 📌 Manoeuvring in these waters is difficult even for the most experienced speculators. This position from the Technical game. The cramped sellers is glaring weakness here. And buyers should be considered as ready also. But buyer's own weakness on the soft horizontal resistance line should also be considered as a pivot also. A certain amount of restraint can be expected, although the space is there now to operate the impulsive wave. There are going to be plenty of chances for us to open up the H4 charts for those wanting to position for the micro flows, as well as those more passive traders waiting to take advantage of the momentum. As usual thanks all for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
ridethepig | Quarterly Updates in the Dow📍 The Pinned Buyer => The move lower is justified, since Equities at these levels are as good as forced. After Fed and other CB intervention has stopped, it will inspire anything but confidence. => So a health crisis, thirsting for a vaccine allowed Equities to outperform last Q as a haven for the bizarre 'Keynesian stimulus'. The correct move was a dead-cat-bounce and early buyers were slight! Now that we have cleared the knee jerk phase, what will follow is an elegant catastrophe. Let us look at that DAX chart for reference to the dead-cat-bounce: After overshoots to the downside Buyers defended their game in an entirely rational manner, but now they commit a mistake which enables a snap decision for risk bears. Even those who are bullish on the ST outlook can admit these levels are unattractive in view of the fact that a second wave will oblige surrender on the activity. Remember re-openings are political fairy-dust, confidence is just not there and a quick look at VIX sitting above Lehman levels tells us this. Here many roads lead to home. Unfortunately thanks to the presence of real risk into US elections and year end flows. Thanks for the support coming with likes, charts, questions and etc. As usual keep the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Editors' picks
UShort
by ridethepig
8
ridethepig | Dovish RBNZ Pricing & Commodity Shortages📍 RBNZ formula So what are we trading here? In this position it would be an obvious mistake to not acknowledge risk sentiment worsening over the weekend as cases continue to escalate, clearly the market is exposed to the storm (that is to say the series of localised lockdowns are a done-deal, the only question remains whether it becomes more widespread). On the monetary side, the correct flow to shelter from if things materially worsen (sadly looks inevitable) is the dovish RBNZ. After the latest meetings they have opened the window for a game changer on the stimulus front coming in August (via lowering domestic borrowing costs). Consider the situation on the AUD side of the equation: Commodity shortages are entering back into play via the Covid shock which is a prelude towards the monetary crisis. Gold, Iron Ore, Copper and etc all look set for further advance; it will keep the basis for some action to the topside in AUD via collateral. Here tracking closely 0.677x in AUDUSD and 0.637x in NZD as the line in sand for the cross. Look to ride AUDNZD up towards the 1.12 macro targets. As usual thanks all for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
ridethepig | Nasdaq Correction Forming 📌 The point of this configuration is that the highs have been lost, since the effectiveness (right..) of the stimulus and the extension above that has NOTHING to do with fundamental or economic reality. This influence can be seen in DAX which cannot make use of the highs. Secondly, there is the threat of Covid and Brexit. In other worst, the risk which triggered the dominos has not gone anywhere despite the political fairy-dust around re-openings. The underlying structural weakness in the economy is profound, masses are cheerleading back to normal while millions remain unemployed. This illustrates the fearlessness of retail. We must now test the lows / support in global equities into U.S. elections and into 2021. This stimulus can be regarded as having come to nothing, and the conjunction of re-balancing worked very well for a handful of individuals. Mortalities are reaching all time highs in many U.S. states, ICU beds are reaching full capacity and showing no signs of abating. Policy mistake after policy mistake. Thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Editors' picks
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by ridethepig
66
ridethepig | EURNZD Trade of the Week📌 In spite of the overshoots to the downside, what we are trading here is a sacrifice... the 'sad tale of the last seller'. I love it when sellers go overboard. Threatening to breakdown, without realising the RBNZ has opened the August window for more free money and NZD devaluation via purchases. The euro occupies the throne in G10 which the dollar has vacated.. We all have our eyes on unity on the fiscal side, and a change of scenery! The euro continues its dance. The purpose of this move is to put into action the debt mutualisation / consolidation. But the move versus USD is becoming more difficult as risk approaches the horizon via Covid. In any case... time for a nice late breakfast while positioning in a dangerous situation. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
1