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Ridethepig

ridethepig | EUR Market Notes 2020.04.22As long as risk sentiment remains negative, USD will remain with an underlying bid. We are starting to see calmer waters on the FX board as euro begins to tread carefully inside this 1.08 handle. I must say I was surprised at the lack of selling interest yesterday after the Oil crash and Equities beginning to show signs of following through, there is definitely something coming on the political side for Europe its just a matter of when rather than if, after all it is the only way to save the currency. For now, European countries are still far apart on Eurobonds (in particular Germany) meaning it will take further pressure on the currency to force Merkel to bend the knee. Happy to add more shorts on any rallies into 1.089x loading zone and look for a main target at 1.05xx. For those wondering about how to play the momentum leg, a very tradable break of 1.076x support is still on the menu today.
Short
by ridethepig
4
ridethepig | Smoke Screens & MirrorsAfter a ruthless and cunning retrace from politicians and central bank talking heads, this piercing rally is coming to an end after reaching the full retrace target at 1250. Buyers, who would like to occupy the jurisdiction above have tried to do so in a crafty way (since the typical path looks out of the question as long as the world remains in lockdown); they have occupied the lows, driven the late sellers out of it and thus created space for this flank manoeuvre. The RUT position arises after the typical small cap under-perofmance from the panic flows: The analysis of this position shows us that sellers are once again ready to conduct another leg lower, but also the quick-witted buyer will know to cover on the contact of 1250. As long as this resistance holds, the advance cannot be administered and the nature of the retrace remains corrective rather than impulsive. A fresh round of bankruptcies will be coming over the next few weeks, I am eyeballing the 16,000 lows in DOW for reference which will carry NQ, S&P, RUT, CAC, DAX, FTSE, NI and the rest of Global Equities. Thanks as usual for keeping the support coming with likes, comments and etc!
TVC:RUTShort
by ridethepig
4
ridethepig | OPEC, CAD and Everything In-Between...The OPEC theatre was an event for the masses, attended by unimaginable liquidity. Packed into enormous press conferences and expensive photoshoots so that the masses would be amused by the raucous discourse or moved by the collaboration. The plot seemed to contain the essence of desperation from Trump, in its concentrated and dramatic form all in attempt of saving US producers rather than saving lives... (sadly) Global Equities turning down is a faster way to get things through congress these days. Consider the following swing, which arose after the Aramco attacks last year: As the main battleground for which China, Russia and Saudis chose to swing in an attempt to play US shale. Remember it essentially boils down to the Gold:Oil ratio being a gauge of the health in petrodollar. A simple cheatsheet... lower gold:oil ratio = a healthy petrodollar structure. On the other side, if ratio rises it shows that the petrodollar market is under pressure (which has been the case for the last few years). It has found a floor at +/- 15 and now moves up towards 86 !!!! ... This is sending loud loud alarm signals that something is rotten from within. Once Saudis began selling Oil in CNY this exploded, it's a buyers market and the seller (Saudis) will always do what it takes to keep the buyers (China) happy...Sure all sounds interesting @ridethepig, So what does this mean for CNY, USD and CAD? I highly recommend digging deeper into how PBOC and CNY has responded since " The Great Lockdown " In warfare, PBOC are playing the leading role with gusto! They are skilled horsemen and took pride in setting a hard floors across Chinese Equities, always positioning in value areas which we traded together here live 4 or 5 times since the crash. This bravery (if you can call it that) has flooded their FX reserves and combined with the composition restructuring we spoke about earlier in their biggest expense (Energy) towards the lows it effectively adds stability to their current account...meaning after all the dust settles from Covid-19, it's game, set and match for China: After understanding the 'why' and 'how' behind the devaluation of Oil, you will notice how the OPEC meetings (or chariot races as I now like to call them) have become more and more extravagant. The renewed organising of longs in USDCAD dips is coming from a weak medium term outlook for CAD and the increased probability of USD taking charge once more of the haven flows, should we see another sell-off in stocks. It has been a difficult chapter but one that has seen a lot of light thrown on the subject thanks to the dissections we've performed live here together. As can be seen in the long-term Oil chart, a test of $15 eventually looks organic although we are entering in the final stages of the drama so I prefer to play this in USDCAD. You will find further considerations of the swings in the related ideas. As usual thanks for keeping the likes, comments and charts coming. Jump in with your views below!
Long
by ridethepig
7
ridethepig | GBP Observances Of The FlowsIn December of 2019 , one of the most successful cable short position was dealt in the UK election business which invited an "official" but "highly confidential" swing that we traded live here with the confirmation of Brexit via Johnson, and then the most extreme demand shock caused a nosedive in cable via Covid-19, which allowed the lows to do damage: The difficulty in positioning on the retrace leg is that clearing 1.15xx had me bursting with curiosity. After some conversations in the right places, the flow is explained... An urgent matter that requires a complete understanding of what happens when a Central Bank capitulates to pressure from health and society and allows the Government to take full control of the monetary supply taps. Rishi Sunak asked for the moon and it's surprising how often it's given. Politicians always make the most out of a crisis , Johnson, Sunak and everyone inbetween have left dealers in complete silence. Of course it starts off as " temporary monetary scaffolding ", although with no one at the BOE to challenge the maintenance costs of this borrowing now that Carney has been replaced (btw which will soar in the coming years) the UK is in incredibly rough shape as we enter into a monetary crisis. A Downing Street / Threadneedle Street combo in attempt to bring out the big guns, although its too little too late. Brexit is coming in a few months, the path to pleasure for protectionism never leads to glory! The amount of intervention is unbelievable, my eyes have popped. Con artists know that the bolder they make the lie, the more convincing it becomes. From a strictly PPP perspective, all those with a background in economics will know that Sterling must devalue further in order to soften the devastating damage which is coming from lack of access to goods in the short-term. Whether you are a Brexiteer, or a remainer, one thing for sure is that access to markets will be hurt in the short-term. It takes no less than 5 more years for the UK to establish the same deals it currently has. A page has been turned on the Johnson health front after positive updates that he has left ICU: For the first time people are seeing Johnson returning as a great emperor. Masses swallowing the story hook, line and sinker!! Just think - if 1.25xx resistance holds and buyers fail to break it will be a textbook blind to psychology retrace! There will be headwinds to this move as the US set out on to conquer artificial USD devaluation. The issue is, if you sell Dollars where else are you going park? In the UK? ...really? You get the point. Wasting valuable time digging for opportunities, then we have a high quality item right here! Just mentally add up the cost of having UK exposure in this environment and then think of the inner zen you can find without having the pursuit of a bargain that's not really a bargain because there is still so much more economic pain to come. On the technical side , we are sitting inside a 1.25 - 1.20 range in the immediate term. After clearing the 1.15 target is has unlocked the door towards the next barrier at 1.10. Those with an eagle eye will be tracking this highs strategically as another rush to USD via further panic on the virus front and shortages and with Brexit still to come a leg from 1.25 => 1.10 is in play over the coming weeks if things go tits up for the UK (very possible!). Thanks as usual for keeping all the support coming with likes and comments, we are sitting at key value levels to start working the sell-side. Jump into the comments with your views, charts and questions!
Short
by ridethepig
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ridethepig | US10Y Market Commentary 2020.04.10An important chart update for all early and late cycle players, the lows in US10Y Yields are not yet locked and this is holding the window open for a final leg to the downside cooking in Global Equities and risk markets. A lot of buying interest in bonds towards 0.85 / 1.00 highs which will be enough to keep the downtrend in pay. I am looking for a full ABC completion from a strictly technical sense to complete the pattern. It will make things a lot easier for later in the year / into 2021 (and beyond). On the map a very simple area to track: Steel Resistance 0.89 <=> Strong Resistance 0.77 <=> Soft Resistance 0.69 <=> Mid-Point FLIP 0.6 0 <=> Soft Support 0.48 <=> Strong Support 0.39 <=> Steel Support 0.30 Thanks as usual for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, charts and etc... jump in with your questions and views!
TVC:US10YShort
by ridethepig
2
ridethepig | AUD Market Commentary 2020.04.08After sweeping the highs, which was not so difficult with its positional issues, this leg should appear all too easy. Well this may lead you to ask some important questions around how a pinned high can be called into question so confidently, because it is possible to build one' whole swing around resistance/support, but around a pinned high? This requires an advanced understanding of liquidity. Of course, sweeps normally occur in the ebb and flow of risk and strategic positioning, perhaps when we are pursuing a fleeing price driver. On the other side, a well planned architect can be the basis which influences the way we construct the whole predicted flow of capital. Here it must be pointed out that the highs will not last forever, a pivot which only crops up occasionally, in fact even the threat of such important at 0.620x barrier can force our opponent into capitulation and thus its effect carries significant importance. So, the following swing merits our special interest in AUDUSD as long as AUDCNH remains under pressure. It is about a sweep which suddenly appeared, then just as suddenly disappeared. Some hours from now, the move will be clear. Instead of the fleeting adventure forward with investors thinking everything is roses and we are back to normal, the G10 FX board will be dominated by a lasting positional advantage to risk-off. Until things have settled down and peace reigns, the USD will remain king. Thanks as usual for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, charts and etc!
Short
by ridethepig
ridethepig | GBP Market Commentary 2020.04.08Limited coverage lately as @ridethepig is spending more time on calls these days than in my entire career. Trying to get a sense of productivity, expectations and capital structures before making further comments. On the UK side, the mood is low and with PM Johnson still in ICU it does not look good. All rallies should be sold in cable towards the highs in the range at 1.236x/1.237x. Look to target 1.20xx and 1.15xx extensions at the lows again, invalidation above 1.250x. The targets come from the same areas as before: Risk markets are going to struggle as we prepare for a long weekend. Wuhan restrictions were lifted today and will be one to track in the coming weeks, I am expecting another leg lower in Global Equities which will trigger a rush to USD and to shake out all the early dip buyers who are speculating that risk is faded for good and this will be a quick in and out. Thanks as usual for keeping your support coming with likes, comments, charts, questions and etc!
Short
by ridethepig
11
ridethepig | Squeeze!Recognise that this demand for USD is squeezing USDTRY into the secondary macro swing targets at 6.60xx. This is completely inline with the forecasts and all those in leveraged positions are inclined to take profits. We are not out of the woods (yet) and large hands will continue to buy dips in USDTRY as long as we remain in risk-off flows. As widely mentioned "local banks will come under pressure and show severe distress above 7" ...increasingly this is becoming the target as weak fundamentals and dictators limit ability to invest in the currency. Expect some consolidation over the coming days before further funding issues add upward pressure via USD demand. Good luck all those buying the dips, highly recommend tracking TRY as a good benchmark to health in EM FX. Thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, as usual jump into the comments with your charts, view and etc!
Long
by ridethepig
4
ridethepig | When will EURUSD find a bottom?A good time to kickstart a round of chart updates here...the underlying infrastructure in Europe will be fixed, from a monetary perspective eurobonds will be the only way to save the currency and covid-19 has unlocked Germany one more time. Although we are starting to clear the top of the curve in places like Italy and NY to a lot lesser extent, there is (sadly) a lot of damage to recover in the 'fact' leg across earnings and macro numbers. The dark clouds are still prevalent across Europe, until Germany bend the knee it will be difficult to grab euros with both hands. Instead a further flush of the lows is in play, in my books it will be enough to trigger capitulation and remain in this strategy. For those tracking the examples in DAX we traded the highs earlier in the year, there is marginal room for another leg lower via risk: I am starting to turn neutral there and continue to monitor the situation with an ear to the ground. USD will remain in bid until we clear the risk/panic flows in Coronavirus. For those tracking the short-term technical side in EURUSD for the long-term map we have 1.07xx handle acting as strong support, I expect a breach to trigger the political capitulation which is what we are tracking on the fundamental side . Once we clear the , to the topside a breach of 1.089xx will open up the targets above. These macro swing targets will come into play at 1.18xx, 1.25xx and 1.35xx over the coming Months and Quarters. The courage to intentionally let oneself be put under pressure for days, just on account of a remote possibility, is now rewarded. Buyers will obtain a direct attack by letting the lows go, do not rush into this move as it is one to track for the rest of the year and potentially decade. Pips are for pipsqueak’s ... this is a fundamental swing which consists of setting our opponent a difficult problem. You can see the stakes are being raised; buyers are taking their time developing the cramped floor. And yet, sellers have not yet passed the point of no return at parity, after which it becomes impossible to level the playing field. A very difficult macro concept to understand, jump into the comments with any questions, comments and views!
Long
by ridethepig
3
ridethepig | GBPUSD Chart Of The WeekOn the UK side, very little to update on the fundamental side. I am tracking the GBPUSD rally closely at these levels into 1.195x/1.20xx resistance as a good area to fade with targets towards the lows in the range at 1.15xx support and 1.05xx. The main issue is coming from the lack of liquidity meaning its difficult to get much size on. For those tracking the previous Brexit flows it has been flawless till the 1.15, the next target below if we break will be 1.05! Thanks as usual for all those keeping the support coming with likes, comments and etc! Jump into the comments with any questions and charts. Highly recommend tracking this flow as it will open up the leg for the Brexit double impact later in the year.
Short
by ridethepig
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ridethepig | EUR Market Commentary 2020.03.26Eyes on EURUSD this morning as we enter into M and Q end rebalancing to put the 🍒 on top (as if there is not already enough in play). A healthy pullback towards 1.097x is enough to draw sellers back in and makes me lean towards playing another leg towards the downside with next 🔑 support located at 1.05xx handle lows. There will be fresh supply at current levels as no one wants to hold risk into month end - fear remains prevalent across the globe and on a humanist level sentiment remains awful. On a slightly more positive note, once these dark clouds clear (still on track for early April) then the path is paved for a massive rebound in risk assets. Remaining as nimble as possible is the pragmatic approach. The idea is no less imaginative than that of the recently posted GBPUSD : Thanks as usual for all those keeping the support coming with likes, comments and etc! Jump into the comments with any questions and charts.
Short
by ridethepig
6
ridethepig | XAU Market Commentary 2020.03.20This swing illustrates my idea of the "two jurisdictions" in a particularly striking fashion. As though playing at odds, to use the infamous expression. By this I mean the choice of a variation, which you yourself do not necessarily have to consider a good one. The premise consists of setting your opponent a difficult problem, or distraction. And Gold is the virtuoso of it. This is the reason some think that inflation (or rather deflation) is the Achilles heel moving forward. But, as I have said, on a misconception if risk shows no signs of abating. This move back towards the highs in the virus panic range (1700 - 1450) plays at the right moment in my books. But if buyers are obstructed via further liquidations; this represents quite a dark side to the idea: The next move raises the stakes; because Gold has taken its time in developing the $1700 handle, whereas a cramped $1500 should have special claim to be cautious! And yet, buyers have not yet passed the point of no return, they are refusing to capitulate after which it becomes impossible to breakdown. Hard to understand; a better way try was profit taking from the Santa Rally: To be clear, another test of the highs is now being prepared. As long as $1510 support holds we can see a leg towards $1630 with $1700 extensions again ( anything beyond was previously locked via Coronavirus but now spillovers are starting to enter into the picture as globalisation shuts down ). Continue to play both sides of this incredibly wide range, big figures are taking place in a matter of minutes; the European session has held the lows and tells us that where risk sentiment in the market is right now. Please manage expectations accordingly. Thanks as usual for keeping the likes, comments and support coming! Jump in with your charts and questions!
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by ridethepig
47
ridethepig | NZD Macro UpdatesHere we go with a round of Macro chart updates, the decline is starting to run out of steam as we enter into support. The initial bounce does not nullify the decline we have seen over the past four years, however it wields influence with 2021 and beyond. The parallel channel we will use for reference technically to define clearly the jurisdictions on both sides. To the topside, resistance can be found at 0.661x which will attract selling interest, while support is located underneath at mid-term 0.58xx. As momentum stalls across the board, it is screaming exhaustion to the downside. Like with physics we will allow the downtrend to exhaust before continuing to create a new MT/LT picture. AUDNZD finding a floor... To put simply, I am expecting a test of 0.58xx over the coming months which will act as a buying interest for the next decade! Highly recommend jumping into the comments with your NZD long-term maps, we can open the macro conversation and create a thread for all to benefit from. Thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments and etc!
Short
by ridethepig
ridethepig | Oil Market Commentary 2020.03.20You can smell the struggle for buyers in the air, the retrace should first be faded at the next technical breakdown as smart money insists on elimination of the base. After the attack, we can start to look at forming a new base, rinse and repeat! If you wish to undermine construction, you naturally will not make it in this game and likely not as an architect either. Example, after the OPEC desperation leg : The ornamentation would naturally follow automatically. After Russia showed signs of buckling on the supply side there was a lot of panic covering from the soft hands. Buyers played somewhat naively, as though the Saudi's would not see this and play something like a break towards $15! That is the logical way for things to develop here. Smelling another test of the lows as early as next week... Very simple. Try to take on the first breakdown, if we deliver a powerful blow then run with momentum for the lows. And always start with the big chief! Thanks as usual for keeping the likes and comments rolling!
TVC:USOILShort
by ridethepig
5
ridethepig | NMR Spot Commentary 2019.12.19A good time to review the NMR chart almost a Quarter after ErasureCon... For those who attended you will know it was a major game changer with Numeraire introducing censorship resistant file sharing is here with Erasure (a decentralised data market with an immutable ledger). This is a new chapter for NMR with one of the few Crypto's with an established use case. For the technical flows, we remain in the same range with the same break above 67866 in play. We got the official cascade of stops which will be enough to trigger the momentum leg opening a target of the 61.8% and 76.4% retracements at 163923 and 195293 respectively. Reassessment from a technical perspective is only necessary below 31141. Good luck all those buying NMR and BTC for Christmas.
Long
by ridethepig
ridethepig | NZD Market Commentary 2020.03.19Divergence in AUD and NZD beginning to widen as large hands dump AUD and pile into NZD. Cases are relatively low in NZ which will keep the RBNZ from going negative, watch-out for AUDNZD breaking parity in the coming sessions. The analysis of the starting position shows us the slingshot is ready to conduct a flanking manoeuvre, but also a quick-witted seller: the exhaustion leg we are tracking can save it from the worst. As long as the 0.49xx lows are in focus, the slingshot can be administered. In this case, the breakdown is coming from Chinese inflows taking a walk, who have been suddenly threatened like a deer in the headlights; (1) AUDCNH (2) NZDCNH After the flash crash the board has been cleared and the lows are naked for sellers to deliver the fatal blow. Instead of a breakdown, we should look to fade these lows. What it means is we have all the ingredients in the pot for a huge rally once we clear the coronavirus flows; so what we need to track market-wise are two 🔑 components: 1️⃣ French & Italian numbers declining 2️⃣ Focus shifting from fatalities to recoveries Remember in terms of markets we are trading perception. This expectation of panic looks set to continue till month-end, I am no expert in virology but from talking to some Chief Exec’s at hospitals on the ground there is a sense that virologists have created something sensational here which is opening the door to overreaction and hype from governments and unlocking (btw in all the wrong places) doors they never thought were possible on both the fiscal and monetary side. Stress in funding markets continues, as long as this remains the case then USD will stay in strong demand until the storm passes, as capital rushes to the doors. AUDUSD - Macro Updates via Coronavirus Impact SHCOMP - Chinese Equities Whatever may be the case, this game is beautiful, as beautiful as it gets. There is a battle of major flows underway, USD will remain bid till we can clear these dark clouds of corona-panic. Or, to put more simply, returning to the starting position creates an easier flow TA-wise that will give buyers an opportunity to grab tempo. As usual thanks for keeping the likes, comments and etc coming....What interesting times we are in!
Short
by ridethepig
5
ridethepig | NZDCNH Market Commentary 2020.03.01NZD is moving as collateral with AUD, those following the previous AUDCNH idea will know this is no less imaginative. New Zealand is exposed to a short-circuit in Chinese supply chains leaving it vulnerable to a slowdown in China via coronavirus. On the monetary side, RBNZ has been notably quiet around the impact from the virus. The CB will not be able to hide from the slowdown for too long, exports are already being hit, tourism, commodities and consumer confidence! As is the case with AUDCNH: The range we are trading in NZDCNH is clearly defined; 4.7 - 4.05 and this trend has held since 2015. The flip is being broken and a breakdown looks imminent. Given the risk environment, I recommend trading towards support at the 4.05 lows and selling rallies going forward. Thanks as usual for keeping the likes coming on the CNH crosses ... an entire dissection of CNH and the impact from PBOC intervention. Jump into the comments with your charts and views!
Short
by ridethepig
ridethepig | Bullish On Home Fitness ... Pelaton At The Lows!We can start to look for single stock opportunities as behavioural economics changes as a result of the Coronavirus impact. We are talking about a dramatic loss in confidence, global OCD patient numbers are ticking higher which btw itself from time-to-time be a very useful indicator. We are talking about an outbreak which has triggered volatility across the board and home enablers will benefit. Would it not be opportune to direct our focus towards a new sector? How to do that will be seen in the following months in the stages of transfer. As the main background to the theme, VIX now reaches the final stages in the move towards 85 it's time to start looking for value areas in PTON: We are starting to reach the initial targets in SPX and DAX selloffs which implies there will be some profit taking from sellers despite the fact we are entering into a recession: DAX SPX Other opps... GILD will continue doing the heavy lifting on Remdesivir (GS-5734) side, this is their free pass into the Chinese Healthcare system. Models will need to start quickly repricing revenue from the Hep B cases in China. GILD will do the heavy lifting here, +/- $20 upside available on the headline for FDA approval which looks around the corner. Flow-wise, the initial target area from the latest technical break comes into play at 86. xx (+25% from current levels). Highlights on the ownership front going to usual suspects in here, Morgan Stanley, Soros, Blackrock, Eminence and Fidelity. This is another known position, it's going to be decided in the next few days. Thanks as usual for keeping the likes and comments rolling.
NASDAQ:PTONLong
by ridethepig
24
ridethepig | Macro Flow & Restraint(1) The relationship between "macro flows" and "restraint" The former encourages plans from our opponent by enticing them into positions. What does it mean: suffering from the sad case of the last buyer? The concept of static and dynamic weaknesses. When it becomes appropriate to undo our opponents structure? Restraint can be imagined without the traditional presence of barriers in the orderblock; but real total economic restraint, loss of market access (regardless if you are for or against Brexit this is a fact in the short-term) reigns over whole stretches of the economy and gives the currency breathing difficulties. This is an important from the advantage of trapping our opponent. To what extent, you may ask, does an economy suffer from the said disadvantages? It is not simply enough to state that market isolation can be easily captured in the FX board and can be highly unpleasant to defend. This is because the monetary suffering is impossible to be offset by the fiscal side despite Sunak's loose budget. Equally it would be efficient to connect the highs with the opportunity of false hope for our opponent to break higher (e.g ridethepig | UK Elections ). The main cause of the suffering is that in an election advance there is always the formation of hope, a certain tendency to paralysis is made apparent with smart money all over the 1.35xx highs and loading sell positions. With a high of the range now located at 1.35, the formation can develop with macro sellers targeting 1.21, then 1.15 and finally 1.05 in cable via Brexit. But there is no support in the diagram, and thus the attempt to transfer the flow is absent (see brexit at the door ). What we are recognising here is the principle weakness of buyers to take 1.35 which we will dissect as dynamic weakness and make it impossible for buyers to construct the break. Rule: when our opponent possess the opportunity to go overboard, their structure is weakened and becomes worthwhile looking to push them into advancing before a strong rejection. With this in mind, in the UK elections after 1.35 was rejected, sellers must then attempt to provoke buyers into continuation with action - hence the chop fest in January. As long as buyers were allowed to hold onto 1.30xx/1.29xx, meanwhile smart money are loading the whole time while it is as obvious as a limp - when sitting down! The weakness only becomes visible once 1.30xx/1.29xx was broken. As well as static weakness, there is also the concept of playing GBP dynamically around event risk. Unlike the UK elections, the Chancellor reshuffle laid out bare when you "blag" the fiscal side, that is turn the taps on full blast and flood GBP supply side: Here the static weakness of the monetary and fiscal side is a great one: when both sides align GBP sellers gain advantage. Rule: When GBP buyers showed static weakness over the past few months it was time to advance against them and not be afraid of doubling down with momentum. While Covid-19 has taken the spotlight, the Brexit problem only half vanished. One part of the rose may disappear into thin air, but the petals left will suffer all the more. Now consider the position in the following diagram ( GBP Market Commentary 2020-01-14 ). Sellers encouraged with the technical break which would mean that the exploitation of the restraint at the highs may not be all that difficult. Next came EURGBP : And now GBP allowed itself to be tempted into an interesting attack the result of which would only be to open up the board and expose the hopeless position of those expecting a second referendum or soft exit. Reality continues to sink in.... Here the "win" for GBP sellers is coming in a no less imaginative style to the same highs we traded back in 2019 ... GBP sellers are therefore right in their choice and direction, the waiting strategy paid. The flank on elections paid. Ending hopeless expectations of a fairy tale exit paid. However, the "advance" was also possible because of the macro flow constituting weakness in the liquidity ladder. Sellers sacrifice the late buyers, an exchange at 1.35 captured all participation... ...where we can achieve our "restraint" and then look to target the same lows as in 2019. Another rule: Isolated event risk and compact flows should be challenged (= attacked by opposing swing). An opposing swing complex, which has not advanced but rather in development stage, should, on the other hand, first be goaded into action before being challenged, in other words let it exhaust first !!! (a) The only true strength of Macro flows As we have witnessed, a swing with restraint attached to it contains a specific latent weakness, which flags up only when the said swing advances. In our case it was with the break of 1.30xx/1.29xx to the downside. We will call this, as we have mentioned dynamic weakness . When on the contrary, the swing stands still (or is resting), it can be quite strong. After the squeeze towards 1.35xx cleared the board with a lot of effort to force buyers. I mean by this that GBP buyers scarcely have enough positional means to be able to force any decision since Brexit and this is because price dictates as always! On the other hand, this would be easier if we had cleared 1.21x last week. (b) A review of the best known swing structures... The strongest formation for swing trading comes from event risk and macro drivers; retail should hang on to the later as long as possible. After the Brexit referendum in 2016, it has been one-way traffic for GBP. Thus it is a strategic requirement for GBP sellers to force Buyers into traps. He should do this where possible and without the help of monetary policy as BOE was hijacked till the virus. Because after the monetary side bends a knee, a challenge would no longer be possible, nor would there be any chance to occupy the highs. In the diagram, you will notice how many players commit in error to the wrong side with desperation forcing them to get stuck. This goes against our principle rule (mentioned earlier!!), according to which we should first provoke into some action. One of the most beautiful blockading and restraint swings I have ever traded, I hope it has helped...thanks as usual for keeping the support coming with likes, comments and etc!
Education
by ridethepig
11
ridethepig | SHCOMP Market Commentary 2020.02.24A bloodbath across most of Asia with SHCOMP managing to hold via PBOC intervention. Actively sold the Tokyo close as red alerts have been triggered across Global EQ Index. Those familiar with the current technical flows we are tracking will remember the PBOC dip; it was a classic example of CB intervention in attempt to stop the bleeding. The issue is that markets want to test the limits, CV is showing no signs of abating and the impact is still yet to be seen in earning and growth figures. We have retraced back to the last breakdown point and selling has begun as if a new crisis is here... Good luck all those on the sell-side in equities, a major move in the making if things do not get under control within days on the virus front. Thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments and etc!!
SShort
by ridethepig
4
ridethepig | Dollar FocusUntil this advanced coronavirus move was played, the flow had been relatively straight-forward, a smooth transition of the Titanic turning was more an ideal than reality. This corresponds to the process I have remarked on, that the US face a choice between a weaker USD or a weaker Equity market. The lack of restraint from Powell gives way to a mechanical swing towards the 74 handle. So much for the strategic and theoretical manoeuvre when a full blown demand and supply shock storms into play. The practical value of the spike in USD makes things a lot easier to trade in US 2's 5's curve as you can see the recession is not a matter of if but when: The Longer term flows here will carry us towards 50 over a 5 wave sequence, those who follow waves will know the technical target is now exposed: Consumer Staples is showing signs of topping: While Claims show signs of forming a floor: Naturally it is all very well to aim for the 75 handle in DXY, driving buyers all the way back, but one must not go so far as to go overboard and intoxicate our strategic execution. As a whole, the defence is being carried out with insufficient knowledge as US virus numbers are only going to tick higher. Now comes a breakthrough, Fed are funding the Whitehouse which logically comes from having a mandate to keep Equities higher. There is nowhere to hide, a really difficult environment to trade you will say. Excellent understanding of the macro flows and drivers in play are required. Thanks as usual for keeping the likes and comments coming, jump into the comments with your charts and questions below!
TVC:DXYShort
by ridethepig
4
ridethepig | TRY Capitulating...The struggle for democracy is being carried out and as long as Erdogan remains at the helm there is only one direction for TRY. Autocrats are typically sticky in nature and difficult to remove, the attack should first be aimed at the currency which will be the base of the capitulation. Attacking the 7.8 will break local bank and looks imminent as markets receive the USD via safe haven flows. Example: After the technical break of the resistance the swing formation seems to be self fulfilling. So, according to the plan we attacked immediately and that is now clear in the outflows by... If you wish to undermine democracy; you tend to try to blow up the foundations of capitalism. The natural restructuring of markets will always follow automatically and hence it is only a matter of time before we see 7.80 and Turkish banks capitulating. After Erdogan, the IMF bailouts will have different possibilities. Turkey's plan can be seen at its clearest now that fears of coronavirus have coupled alongside the Saudi / Russia oil action. Remember, Turkey is an importer of Oil ... so with Oil now flirting with a break towards $20 (see diagram) the logical development will be to destroy the highs in USDTRY. Very simple. Continue to work longs on the first dip you see. Thanks as usual for keeping the likes and comments coming, jump into the discussion with your views on TRY!
Long
by ridethepig
7
ridethepig | Gold Failing At The Highs...Gold undershooting at the 2012 highs are failing to clear 1700 by crumbs was screaming signals that the market was exhausted, and that it would take more than a coronavirus pandemic to move higher. Notice the size of the wick with all the profit taking place it produced a bearish monthly (and weekly) pattern: The handbrakes have been pulled, Central Banks are co-ordinated the response with PBoC, BoJ and RBA moving first, now eyes on ECB, FED and BOE next... momentum in the move towards the topside is running out and a pullback is necessary before anything else can be resolved. After an abrupt end to the "Santanomics"... Here expecting the pressure to continue on buyers in March. A break of the Yellow trend-line at 1550 will unlock the 1450 lows. I am targeting 1540 this month with Q220 targets located at 1450. Best of luck all those on the sell side in Gold, we will not be covering the fundamentals as it has been widely spoken and discussed in the previous charts. ...Thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments and etc!
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by ridethepig
11