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Ridethepig

ridethepig | JPY Losing It's "Haven" Status...Highlights of the week going to USDJPY exploding to the topside and catching many with their pants down (myself included). In times of extreme panic even the USD can outperform JPY as a safe haven currency. Japanese economy is coughing badly in all data fronts and considering the geographical location relative to the virus it makes it hard to find reasons to park capital there for the forseeable future. Combining all of this with the technical break of 110.3x which was strong resistance and cascaded macro stops, simply, technicals only added fuel to the fundamental fire. The monthly chart in USDJPY is looking very bullish indeed, with targets up at 149.xx .. this chart is not looking so crazy after all: The same 'E' leg that we traded live together: Most of the sell-side flows in USDJPY were built around coronavirus risk-off sentiment - I recommend bookmarking this breakup as it seems we are dislocating from the traditional JPY safe haven environment. Picking up cheap tactical longs on the day at 111.25 ideally with initial targets located at 111.8x and 112.2x before trailing for the breakup. Thanks as usual for keeping your support coming with likes, comments and etc!
Long
by ridethepig
1
ridethepig | PLN Market Commentary 2020.02.19The outflows from Poland have been staggering to say the least, large sharks abandoning ship before the storm reaches shore. Notice how the NBP (National Bank of Poland) has been dovish even though inflation ticks higher ...everything is fine right... We traded the PLN devaluation versus CZK previously, now I prefer EURPLN longs as my 'weapon' of choice. There is room for a leg into 4.3075x and 4.333x as the extension. Thanks as usual for keeping the support coming with likes, comments and etc. An important round of G10 and EM macro FX charts coming over the next few sessions ...
Long
by ridethepig
3
ridethepig | Fading The Highs In GBP!With Javid out Johnson had the perfect cherry pick with Rishi Sunak and now the fiscal taps can be turned on full. This medium-term swing is starting to look very interesting which is unlocking a leg towards 1.20xx and 1.15xx below: Rishi is a typical yes man, he will do whatever Johnson wants. Those behind the curtain know it was another flawless beheading from Cummings, meanwhile a ruthless Downing Street only waiting for Carney exit on 16th March to have full control with Bailey too. Eyes on NY selling the open, we could get a very fast swing down is USD catches a strong bid via coronavirus risk. US inflation overshooting will be enough to carry this lower. Thanks guys for keeping the likes and comments coming, jump into the discussion with your charts below!
Short
by ridethepig
13
ridethepig | XAU Market Commentary 2020.02.14The poor sellers! On a move they had to defend, they failed miserably and now buyers are off on their journey! Any sellers now will be perish, we can continue the destination towards our 1600-1610 first target area. For those tracking the initial leg from the PBOC defence, the very lows at 1550 where sellers bit into granite: You notice how fluid the move is, it is unidirectional, you just know the direction is right. There is no unpinning at all, all dips are treated as gifts and you will notice the next addition to the account: Happy wife.. Happy life.. The threat to take 1600 next week is on, buyers look ready to occupy with a round of bad news over the weekend re: coronavirus and a combination of reflationary risks make the move expected. I do not believe the energy stored in sellers can suddenly appear without a significant change in drivers, the demand will just be there because of the climate we are in. All blocks are being bought, there is no question in the movement, only the timing. In any case, i will wrap it up there. Thanks as usual guys for keeping the likes and comments coming... I hope you are all enjoying the ride!
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by ridethepig
1
ridethepig | Coronavirus Risk-OffOn the Equities front sentiment is starting to shift once again towards the negative side with offloading being done at the highs. After clearing Powell focus is shifting back towards the pressures on earnings from Coronavirus and spillovers, not expecting much more room to the topside in the immediate term. Investors do not like the headlines from China with cases jumping sharply. Tracking closely USDJPY as a benchmark for the FX board to measure the reaction in risk. 110.2x remains strong resistance and creates a strong drag on Equities moving further. The factory closes are going to trigger a round of default risks for Chinese factories. School closures are being extended into March while the Chinese government remains closed until the final week in Feb. This all has yet to translate into the data, markets will need to price the additional risk premium. Don't forget to keep the likes coming, we can continue to update the intraday charts if we get enough interest in the short-term flows!
UShort
by ridethepig
ridethepig | XRP -25% Correction In Play!XRP buyers... Creatures of habit, that love warmth of familiarity. By keeping the smell of the past alive they commit to more exposure only to later have the rug pulled again. This does not change the state of play for BTC, those following the long term diagram in BTC have started to reach the first profit taking area and with that XRP like a farmer who has lost his piglet, looks particularly vulnerable with shorts looking attractive here. Well done those who have been riding the pig so far in XRP; it is a very good gage for the collateral although I have full disclose that not a dime was made on this leg: You notice how we entered into buyers jurisdictions and smart money saw the investment, any sellers did well to liquidate there: Buyers have made the tempo move and successfully developed the trend. But, unfortunately from time to time, other dubious tactics are tried: the retrace in order to take profit and shake out late retail buyers, and keep on doing so until the day arrives when you have to play the same sizes on both sides...not a move for newcomers, we have to hold the highs as reference as mere stop gaps will not help. We'll update the chart as things go along. GL As usual thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, charts and etc!
COINBASE:XRPUSDShort
by ridethepig
4
ridethepig | EOS Market Commentary 2020.02.18Trotting higher as ever and currently challenging the key $4.50 flip. I noticed better local RM EOS buying too, and I think that the coin could remain bullish until $7.5 before we see any serious official profit taking. I'd use any dips to enter shorts. The same flows that have been in play since the pullback: It remains the darling of Altcoins. High funding in the space but so far markets only reacting in a conventional manner. Taking $4.50 will help that support ant now an attractive momentum move in play. Thanks as usual for keeping the support coming with likes, comments and etc...Jump into the comments with your charts!
BITFINEX:EOSUSDLong
by ridethepig
ridethepig | XAU Market Commentary 2020.02.17Risk markets remain on the back-foot with no one wanting to get caught badly on the wrong side via COVID-19 haven flows. You can see this in USDJPY, after the awful GDP prints (still yet to see virus impact) the reaction was so muted. Markets remain at the mercy to gyrations in patient and death counts, I am sticking with the shorts from 109.7x/8x although by no stretch of the imagination married to this. A break above 110.3x will invalidate the view while soft support can be found at 109.2x which unlocks the leg towards 108 incase we get panic later in the week. Stay long Gold. After an initial blip lower, Gold has once again found a strong bid as markets position themselves defensively via COVID-19. The break of 1600 will be very telling, with NY calmly away from their offices today we could continue to find demand on dips. Well done all those riding from Valentines Day! A superb swing since we got the breakout: On the medium and long term things are a lot clearer, we can comfortably ride this till $1600, $1630 and finally $1650 before the next leg of profit taking begins: Thanks as usual for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, charts and etc! Jump into the comments with any questions or queries, to put simply here, adding longs and continuing to sit on the bid as long as risk remains in the spotlight. GL!
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by ridethepig
1
ridethepig | Canada CPI Event RiskWith US away from their desks today we will get a dull session and the relentless loonie bid will grind us back towards the 1.3275x area. It is a good value level to re-engage with shorts and here looking to add ahead shorts there ahead of local CPI on Wednesday. The MT and LT outlooks for Canada are very good in my books; A bullish USD view on risk via coronavirus flows will be better expressed versus EUR or even AUD because of relationship with China if things get really bad. Canada is less exposed on the monetary side (other than as collateral via oil) and as long as data holds up there will be no further rate cuts, and remember we have OPEC cuts coming next month. As usual thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments and etc! Jump in with your charts and views below...
Short
by ridethepig
1
ridethepig | TRY Market Commentary 2020.02.17On the Turkey side we have updates coming from the local banks, a lot of interest in USD exposure as TRY is set to suffer further via spillover effects. The EM FX is all centred around coronavirus flows and the knock-on impact this will have on global growth, here looking for a dip back towards the lows, a fresh sweep would make it very easy to trade going into the month end. On the fundamental side, Turkey remains in rough shape, those bearish on Turkey should use this as an opportunity to add heavy bullish exposure with targets up towards the 7.80xx levels: In the very immediate term EM FX will be hijacked by the ebb and flow of coronavirus headlines and the spillover effects on growth. Regular readers will know I have been a bear on Turkey for years, this environment will not attract any fresh RM inflows into Turkey - just take one look at the yields and the CBRT cutting cycle. On the technical side, the extensive breakout we traded previously has unlocked 7.80xx for the year. Reassessment on the core bearish view is only required on a break of the 4th wave support located below at 5.4xx. The upside is wide open and will trigger the dominos in the collapse of Erdogan and Turkey as we know it. We can use the long-term charts as our drivers to scale into swings more comfortably on the immediate term. Thanks as usual for keeping your support coming with likes, comments and etc!
Long
by ridethepig
Heads Up...Tax Cuts Coming In UK !!!Important updates on the UK side for those in UK related assets. A game changer cabinet reshuffle to put a 🍒 picked “Yes man” in the Treasury. Downing Street making renovations and now in full control of not only No.10 but also No.11 (and scarily soon to be the BOE next month). Sunak will turn the fiscal taps on full blast, the fuel behind fiscal stimulus will come from fresh tax cuts in the UK ...Clean and simple legs available in the 2s10s, as markets begin to expect a looser fiscal policy a test of the Nov highs are in play. We will need to update the GBP macro charts over the coming sessions once we have confirmation in the headlines. Remember inversions in the US 2s5s setting the stage for recession... We traded the inversion here live in the UK: In any case, plenty of opportunities to discuss and in single stocks too. Smelling a major hammer to the UK economy coming at the end of 2020. As usual thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comment and etc!
TVC:GB10YLong
by ridethepig
ridethepig | Gold Market Commentary 2020.01.16This chart comes after a request from @radyan899464 and a very good time to update the chart as we reach strong support from the initial wave of profit taking after our large swing. Those tracking the previous swing can see in the diagram here: 1595 triggered a lot of profit taking and covering, we are now entering into accumulation and once again get ready to ride the pig with initial targets in Q220 at 1650.xx via US Election repricing (more on this later in the Live room). It is a key area as it will effectively become the differential zone between impulsive and corrective, it is clear the 'C' sequence targets have been reached on the Weekly chart: The important point to note here is should we see failure in the case of paralysing the impulsive move towards 1650 then we must not be caught by the teeth in the saw. The manoeuvres directed here should be taken with caution. Good luck all those looking for another squeeze higher and as usual thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments etc!
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by ridethepig
4
ridethepig | CHF Market Commentary 2020.02.14Models make it hard to add any longs to USDCHF here at the highs, risk opening the floodgates for a -1.5% short, mainly stemming from a notable pick up in demand for CHF after the latest shift in risk sentiment. Here tracking the risks related to coronavirus that imply the Eurozone growth will take another hit (as if things were not already difficult enough for Europe) and CHF will act as a safe haven in the flow. On the SNB side, intervention is a lot more tricky with Trump tracking like a hawk for any artificial devaluation. For the short-term flows I am tracking 0.980x for the trigger, risking -25 on the day and targeting a retest of the Weekly open. On the macro charts things are clearer: From a technical perspective, we marked the long term highs in an ending diagonal count. For those following the previous charts we have traded live here on Tradingview this ABC leg. This is far from surprising considering that CHF has a much brighter nature of dealing with large capital flows than the US, which is underlined by protectionism. Risks to the thesis come from SNB intervention capping the upside in CHF (unlikely as per this morning). As usual thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, charts, questions and etc!!
Short
by ridethepig
ridethepig | XBT Market Commentary 2020.02.13A quick short-term update here with another storm of risk coming our way for the weekend. This time it will damage the late crypto buyers with a correction. We have already had intense orders and impressive sizings seen in Tokyo and before the NY open. A real risk of a healthy pullback as that ridge of high pressure from Coronavirus spillover effects enter into play once more. In any case this will be a buying opportunity and we will update the short-term flows as we go if there is enough interest. In any case a good opportunity to take some longs off the table and those sharp enough can ride the profit taking in a -5% leg cooking to the downside. As usual thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments and etc!
GEMINI:BTCUSDShort
by ridethepig
3
ridethepig | SPX Market Commentary 2020.02.13It is obvious that we are trading extended levels in US Equities and to a lesser extent Europe too. The blockader above from Tokyo yesterday must come as a surprise as Europe were inclined to buy the dip. What is surprising is that the resistance assigned to the current range at 3380 is serving its function of the highest order. So it ought to seem quite normal to trade a simple pullback on risk, and to treat it with the same approach as with DOW and Gold (see diagrams below). With that recognition behind us, the Fed has revealed itself which is hard to maintain and thus the markets will manoeuvre to test the limits out to be correct, this in spite of a possible impact since after smelling blood they can use it to their advantage. On the other hand, the selloff would be weak and 3300 will be a tough nut to cack. I prefer to play a test of the Weekly open at +/- 3325 but have room to roll up should we manage to breakdown. As usual thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments and etc!
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by ridethepig
ridethepig | EUR Spot Commentary 2020.02.14All 👀 on EUR with heavy sells mounting from some of the biggest sharks in the business. It’s difficult to find anything positive on the macro side in Europe at the moment, and notably I am getting an increasing amount of questions from clients with the same exhaustion. With German uncertainty, ECB emergency cuts making the rounds and when you look at positioning there is room for a leg in EURUSD towards the 1.07xx handle to close the gap from 🇫🇷 elections. Clearly a lot more unwinding to be done and after the fresh break lower and with the macro price drivers unlikely to change in the immediate term, I will look to short 1.0925 aiming for the 1.07 lows.
Long
by ridethepig
ridethepig | EURUSD Macro Update [Dissecting Waves]The starting position has been difficult to reach for the 3rd impulsive wave after coronavirus risk-off flows hijacked the move. But what now? Either a breakdown to close the gap from French elections in 2017 or an imminent reversal to kickstart the leg; of course if only the positional obligation was not so appealing at these levels for longs because we are obliged to play, instead of with the current direction, some positionally relevant move to strengthen the advance. On the macro side, refreshing to see the lows holding but for how long? We are just simply picking key levels where the price can kick up out of. You don't necessarily need to agree with the wave counts but you see the value levels for those wanting to work the bid. These are not the levels you want to be selling in my books, I will not chase this lower unless we get a daily close below the 5th wave which will naturally call for reassessment of the count. Those tracking the dissection of the technicals will know by now that we are sitting in key support levels from our technical diagram: Regular readers and those with a background in waves will know that the trend resumption towards the topside is only a matter of time. Buyers will repeat the manoeuvre and create a longer term threat - that is the intention! Its only once you have mapped this out and you have an understanding of the big picture in play that you can then come down smaller and start trying to work the intraday legs. I could get even more to this if the US Equities come under pressure and correct which will in turn force FED to tilt further towards the dovish side... In any case we will see how this one goes, I am looking to get long but will need a helping hand from a fresh price driver to assist in flipping the board. Risks to the thesis come from an emergency -10bps hike from the ECB, it does not look in play as long as the lows are holding..clearly markets are testing their patience, a breach of the lows will force Lagarde to capitulate with a cut. There wont be anymore QE because that's too difficult to backtrack. Cutting rates would be the more effective front load....wary of this walking forward. Don't forget to keep the likes, charts, questions and comments coming! Thanks guys...
Long
by ridethepig
2
Live Positioning in GBPJPY !!!A round of GBP chart updates after the latest cabinet reshuffle. A nice sweep of the highs and we are set to go with the fiscal taps set to rain down and attempt to offset the impact via brexit. On the other side we have risk taking the spotlight again with coronavirus flows not abating. JPY is set to outperform over the coming sessions with a soft selloff in global equities and with GBPJPY at the top in the range we are sitting at good value levels to recycle shorts. For the map: Highs 143.25 <=> Mid 142.25 <=> Lows 141.25 Expecting a red asian session with more risk clearing to be complete, I am taken back by how complacent that many markets have been able to try looking through the outbreak. We have a few reasons to remain on high alerts, uncertainty around the 2s5s: Notice how the inversions are ahead of recessions, while the press reports all is well there are downside risks building and playable across many markets. If we see an improvement in sentiment around the coronavirus I will lighten up. I will not be stubborn and hold on. Keep it simple and trade the driver! Don't forget to keep the likes and comments coming!!
Short
by ridethepig
1
ridethepig | EURCHF Market Commentary 2020.01.16A good time to update the daily chart in EURCHF with Euro starting to trade firmer on the crosses and the CHF run beginning to show signs of unwinding. The 1.074x is starting to look very weak and will give way to sweep all the way down towards 1.062x, here looking to increase exposure; should we visit 1.080x I will not hesitate to increase sizings. For those tracking the Long-term macro chart we remain in the same updated map: Currency manipulation is once again a hot topic with US putting China back on the 'nice' list, smelling SNB to become the next deer in the headlights as CHF inflows are impressive and I believe sharp money is going to test the limits. Good luck those in EURCHF - an advanced chart for the move towards 1.06xx.
Short
by ridethepig
ridethepig | GBP Market Commentary 2020.02.11A timely update to the FX strategy for GBP with particular focus on Cable. On the UK side, we have loud messages from Europe around the difficulty for both sides to reach an agreement by year-end. Although typical in a game of high-stakes chess, this is a heavy weight on Sterling. On the US side, a solid round of data prints last week from wages to non-agricultural employment. The FED remains dovish and in cutting mode, in normal circumstances cuts would be difficult to justify but with Trump in full control market expectations do not favour USD walking forward. On the technicals the map is crystal clear until we enter into the Brexit impact leg: Strong Support 1.276x <=> Soft Support 1.290x <=> Mid Point 1.328x <=> Soft Resistance 1.38xx <=> Strong Resistance 1.43xx On the positioning side, Pound longs were mostly built by speculators in the back-end of 2019 and these began to unwind as we headed into the official finish line in Jan 2020. This is leaving the flows exposed to negative headlines although you can argue the case for further upside as long as strong economic prints continue. The Pound is relatively cheap in this environment, I suspect the main impact leg from Brexit will not kick-in till October 2020 so we have plenty of time to continue working both side in the next 6 months. Expecting a mild recovery to come in the months ahead which will aid in offshore ownership of UK assets, the desire is there to continue the recovery and as long as this remains the case the breakdown will be difficult. Look to add GBP exposure on dips while we are at the bottom of the short-term and medium term range. A breakdown will be a game changer and will imply BOE are moving in August. A round of G10 FX charts and strategy updates coming over the sessions today... Don't forget to keep the likes and comments rolling guys!
Long
by ridethepig
1
ridethepig | Sticking The Knife In TRYTurkey continues to stand out on the EM FX board, USDTRY finding strong support at the 5.97xx with sizeable USD demand signals from local Turkish banks. These same banks will be quick to cover should we breach the 6.00 handle and vulnerable to a squeeze once engaged. In the very immediate term EM FX will be hijacked by the ebb and flow of coronavirus headlines and the spillover effects on growth. Regular readers will know I have been a bear on Turkey for years, this environment will not attract any fresh RM inflows into Turkey - just take one look at the yields and the CBRT cutting cycle. On the technical side, the breakout we traded unlocked 7.80xx for the year. Reassessment on the bearish view is only required on a break of the 4th wave support located below at 5.4xx. The upside is wide open and will trigger the dominos in the collapse of Erdogan and Turkey as we know it. As usual thanks for keeping your support coming with likes, comments and etc!
Long
by ridethepig
2
ridethepig | RUB Market Commentary 2020.02.12A very advanced playing field in commodities and commodity currencies and with offshore sharks on the sell side in USDRUB there is a lot more room to go. The highs at 63.50 will act as strong resistance while to the downside initial targets located at 62.7x, 61.5x and the final swing clear at 60. This is the same levels from the previous diagram: No surprises sellers were fired up and ready to act again. There is a lot of room to the downside should we find a bounce into March for Oil. Happy to sit short and looking for a technical break with the NY open. Good luck all RUB bulls, as usual thanks for keeping the likes, comments and charts coming!
Short
by ridethepig