Get started

Ridethepig

ridethepig | LTC Market Commentary 2020.02.12LTC will continue to reduce liquidity. Not sure how effective that is going to be at containing this environment though. A move towards 93 is a matter of when rather than if. Happy to sit in LTCUSD longs for now, the move is unstoppable at the moment. If BTC and cryptos can have a strong couple of days, spot could easily touch 90 this week. Stay long Litecoin. I really think any move lower is unjustified and the strong liquidity injection will see LTCUSD a lot higher once we clear the coronavirus flows. Don't forget to keep the likes, charts and comments coming!
COINBASE:LTCUSDLong
by ridethepig
ridethepig | Coronavirus Retrace LegThe underlying USD devaluation seems little changed on the whole despite the Coronavirus hijack. Volatility is subdued as seen in the diagram below, which is making it very simple for large sizings to enter as was the case in 2007. The USD weakness (which is a lot clearer on the Monthly chart) is a significant component in the reflation trade, growth projections in the US (in terms of GDP) are slowing and this remains ongoing despite Kudlow et al on the wires. The path of least resistance for Powell is to cut, while the Yield curve (below) shows the recession risks are still there and prevalent. The titanic takes a long time to turn around, I am sitting tight in the Dollar sell-side for the mid and long term. You can see the picture clearly here that the 2017 highs are holding: ...my forecast is for a gradual decline in the next Q before significantly weakening towards the back-end in the year. Don't forget to keep the likes and comments coming! Thanks!
TVC:DXYShort
by ridethepig
1
ridethepig | AUDNZD Breaking Higher !!A superb time to update the AUDNZD chart after a fresh technical breakup yesterday. The Q4 prints from antipodeans is very positive and actually triggering a slightly hawkish tilt by the RBA. Despite the brutal domestic story in Australia with bushfires and coronavirus spillovers, Scott Morrison has done the heavy lifting via housing policies. There is a lot of AUD shorts to be unwound by leveraged retailers creating a massive upside in AUDNZD with a supportive price driver. The hawkish shift by RBA is subtle and not visible by the naked eye, there is not a single mention of coronavirus spillover effects on growth and if anything emphasis on just how temporary the impacts are. For the technical picture things are a lot clearer in the medium term (see diagram below): This is clearly rallying towards the 1.07-1.08 area as the bottom is defined and established. For the short-term the picture is a little more complex (as we have RBNZ on the wires this week), the double bottom set-up in play will imply a minimum flow towards 1.065x. Don't forget to keep the likes and comments rolling in!
Long
by ridethepig
2
ridethepig | NZD Market Commentary 2020.02.11On the NZ side a superb round of employment data for Q419 which is overshooting market expectations clashing with global USD strengthening via commodity currency softening. For the 2020 diagram the outlook is crystal clear although the immediate picture is slightly more blurred with Chinese growth concerns spilling over to weigh on NZD. The RBNZ are on hold this week and will remain the case unless the outlook globally materially softens. China easing will allow risk assets to bounce, I don't see much more downside for NZDUSD from here and am actively looking to add positions to all macro portfolios this week. A hawkish RBNZ via unemployment and (no mention of coronavirus growth risks) will be supportive NZD. Technically the picture is looking overstretched to the downside, strong support is located at 0.634x while to the topside resistance is at 0.665x and 0.679x above. Strong support 0.634x <=> Soft Support 0.642x <=> Mid Point 0.650x <=> Soft Resistance 0.665x <=> Strong Resistance 0.679x. Don't forget to keep the likes and comments coming!
Long
by ridethepig
1
ridethepig | BTC Flirting With A Break Of $10,000 !The breakout in play at the $10,000 barrier a level which is itself protected. Another possibility is to remove the "profit taking" from consolidating underneath of the level. The sizings from China are impressive and more generally markets happy to take on risk after achieving a lot of sufficient PBOC support. Buyers intend to increase the power of the threat by enticing soft retail shorts into playing the downside and then; how can sellers move to anticipate this coming breakup? By covering their positions and putting this through the roof as it would enable a sharp spike towards initial targets at $13,365 ==> follow closely by $16,000 as the main ST swing target.It is worth considering the underpinnings of this swing demonstrated here in the root of the move. The waiting game Smart money pinged out price from the lows, here the contact in the demand zone ( Bakkt Floor™ ) established the foundations between turnover in play. Large buys saved the swing which would have otherwise been lost on a breakdown. This brings us to the next conclusion and illustration in the idea. Marching Troops To The Border Before we could tackle the entire impulsive leg we needed to check we were well versed in the opening flows. The resistance and channel break should refresh optimism on the idea of higher highs, because both of these are fundamentally necessary for the correct direction and path of least resistance. The question to follow readers is after the opening operations, do we sit tight and begin enjoying the fruits of our labour? Well, those sharp enough with ammunition stored up continued to work longs. Destroying the defence By playing the breakout buyers give no chance to release the tension and allow further defence to reason. $10,000 above here will offer psychological importance and be useful for headlines. It is in other words necessary for algos to continue grinding higher. But we all know that this is one of the most hated bull runs which has happened in BTC history. Retail are starting to turn bullish and have a powerful urge to expand exposure, and thus what we have done to our opponent is to cause death by a thousand scratches. But moreover, (sadly) risk-off continues and Coronavirus flows have emerged, of which is showing no signs of abating. Seizing the breakout The manoeuvre from buyers to break the channel can only be described as impulsive, an advanced move which has been able to bring about demobilisation of sellers and to form a major opportunity after CME options. It removes the resistance from sellers and even allows buyers to approach closer to the initial swing targets. These excellent example of courage from buyers captures the "Establishment vs. People" narrative brewing as confidence in governments globally continue to collapse. Markets reply to FED funding Whitehouse policies will be particularly interesting... As usual thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, charts, questions and etc!
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by ridethepig
RIDE THE PBOC !!!China returning from LNY and an (un)lucky -8% selloff taking the headlines as SHCOMP catches up to the bleeding across Global Equities since last week. Well done those that caught the move we traded live here: A flawless -8% leg in a single gap; as long as the full extent in the impact of this virus remains unclear it will be difficult for SHCOMP to get back above 3,000. These retraces should be seen as good SHCOMP selling opportunities (although tricky in this case for some). The liquidity injection from PBOC will be enough to put the handbrake on the selloff, this area is of focus and here looking for 2983 to the topside while 2650 is the area of focus below. China a much bigger part of global growth now; almost 2/3 of China is in shutdown meaning PMIs are likely to dip next month. We have some time to complete the retrace before reassessing if the coronavirus impact can be looked through or if we will need to change MT and LT outlooks. A transmission leg, not for the feint of heart. Thanks as usual for keeping the support coming with your likes, comments, charts and etc! Good luck all those trading SHCOMP after the last 8% move we can afford to leave some chips on the table.
SLong
by ridethepig
8
ridethepig | US 10Y Yields (Weekly)Markets are focused on three topics this week: (i) The 4Q 2019 Earnings season, (ii) coronavirus spillover concerns and (iii) Sanders performance in Caucuses. In US Yields the picture is crystal clear on the Long-term chart, for those following the 1.50% support level we are tracking on the daily you will note where the strength in defence comes from in the medium term: On the technical side the same levels to track: Support : 1.50% / 1.45% / 1.32% Resistance : 1.68% / 1.75% / 1.95% In my books the impact of the virus is going to have a major impact on US GDP growth, tracking for 2% drag on Q1 growth. Chinese spending offshore is expected to drop by 0.6% (which is a conservative estimate). This is weighing on investor decision making as the impact will come through valuation changes rather than the earnings. If you are a believer in the virus having a short lived impact, then you can increase exposure on this dip in cyclicals and value companies. The industries hit hardest are airlines and travel with gaming to a lesser extent receiving a hit via Macao shutdowns. All the best guys, and as usual thanks so much for keeping your support coming with likes, comments, charts, questions and etc!!
TVC:US10YLong
by ridethepig
ridethepig | US 10Y Yields At SupportA quick update that I will try to keep relatively short for those charting the US10Y we have important updates after markets struggled to shake off risks from China. The support in Yields is starting to form a bullish basing pattern, although the medium term structure is weaker the immediate horizon looks strong and stable above the 1.50 line in the sand. The bounce from 1.50% support was widely expected, here noting the key levels for our map: Support : 1.50% / 1.45% / 1.32% Resistance : 1.68% / 1.75% / 1.95% What is typical of the big leagues, and this of course is no exception in US10Y which is where the biggest sharks are found, it is and will remain advanced playing fields for advanced swing traders only. Retail making use of the weekly close looking soft and betting on the continuation will provide the fuel for a spike as they cover and become trapped in a squeeze. Remember.. even when smart money appears to have a gun pointed at the head, it always finds the time to mass his troops in defence (now you see why this weekend was vital!!!!)... If you are keen to learn, you should model yourself around these premises. All the best guys, and as usual thanks so much for keeping your support coming with likes, comments, charts, questions and etc!!
TVC:US10YLong
by ridethepig
ridethepig | GILD 2019-nCoV TargetA good time to review the previous floor at 60.xx that we have been tracking for almost a year in $GILD. Here taking the latest misses in Q4 Earnings with a pinch of salt as the red carpet has been rolled out for Gild via China. Once again another buying opportunity given the latest progress around Phase III clinical trials: On the Remdesivir (GS-5734) side, this is their free pass into the Chinese Healthcare system. Models will need to start quickly repricing revenue from the Hep B cases in China. GILD will do the heavy lifting here, +/- $20 upside available on the headline for FDA approval which looks around the corner. Flow-wise, the initial target area from the latest technical break comes into play at 86.xx (+25% from current levels). As usual thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments and etc!
NASDAQ:GILDLong
by ridethepig
2
ridethepig | LTC Spot Commentary 2020.02.05Here I had been expecting (at last!) a pullback and been prepared to add on dips, the market is cutting through the highs like a knife and hot butter... a nice problem to have. Buyers are threatening to trigger capitulation on the Weekly: This is a textbook example of how to exploit soft hands, but with a rather pleasant twist. In what follows, I will explain my feelings about the particular LTC swing, to help you follow what is happening. I was glad to be rid of the resistance and loaded more. This manoeuvre makes it possible to get into our opponents jurisdiction, or headquarters (whatever you want to call it). Momentum triggers, shorts cover and smart money continues to buy strength. Here I had the unpleasant feeling that I did not have sufficient sizings given the risk:reward... Here I was glad to see buyers continuing to breach the initial swing target at 64. Sellers having to pack their bags and go home. Resigning because of the disastrous defence. My impression is now that we are comfortably trading above a 70 handle the highs being taken are simply a matter of time. The combinational style that buyers are using to attack is impressive to say the least, it's in our interest to continue holding the remaining positions and working longs. We will keep an eye on any threats to the swing. Thanks as usual for keeping the support coming, I trust all readers are enjoying their slice of the pie.
COINBASE:LTCUSDLong
by ridethepig
1
ridethepig | EOS Spot Commentary 2019.12.18EOS moving pretty much in sync with the rest of the Crypto board and broader USD devaluation. Strong inflows will continue to move it out of the range with upside pressure coming from the Global reflationary theme. Here being constructive on EOS and triggering ahead of the anticipated breakout, though has not yet developed the move will only be invalidated with a break below the $2 handle. Things are a bit easier to track on the BTC chart: Focus remains on the $3.25 resistance over USD devaluation. 4.50 and 7.50 remain the targets to watch. Overall, I see the case for meaningful EOS and BTC strength in 2020, but especially if considered versus USD. Difficult to trade, for sure, but I still feel the bigger BTC risk lies to the topside and will move EOS as collateral. Good luck all those buying dips in BTC and EOS and thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, questions and etc!
BITFINEX:EOSUSDLong
by ridethepig
ridethepig | EOS Market Commentary 2020.02.05I was hoping for a continuation of the EOS rally that started in Q419 and we got exactly that. I didn't really expect such a significant move higher in such a short space of time, however I will take that !! An absolutely flawless +85% rally since we began loading: It was in EOS that I saw the biggest interest with offshore real and fast crypto accounts buying right from the open today. BTC having a better morning, but even with that rally, EOS was able to outperform roughly 5% today. There was better domestic news in EOS land around Block.one announcing a smart contract puzzle. This will render ETH as useless if EOSIO can store solidity. Elsewhere BTC receiving strong flows inline with expectations, most notably the $10,000 target in play. There's still many moving parts and price action has been positive to say the least this year. I still favour trading EOS to the topside with secondary targets located next at $7.50. Well done those taking some chips off the table!
BITFINEX:EOSUSDLong
by ridethepig
1
ridethepig | KZT 2020 Macro Map A fresh and new instrument to the @ridethepig Tradingview portfolio. Tenge finding a strong bid with a lot of air below to the next target area. Tenge is definitely oversold and cheap compared to other valuations in EM FX space, the attractive carry is worth playing if you have Oil or RUB in the playbook. A quick recap of the Oil Macro chart: From a strictly technical perspective, KZT highs are now capped above 380 and downside pressure is acceptable. Target-wise ==> I am looking for a test in the lows of this range at 310 (a -18% swing!!). Remember macro trades do not trade for pips, these are for pipsqueaks. As usual thanks for keeping your support coming with likes, comments, charts and etc!
Short
by ridethepig
Sellers Biting On Granite In Gold!Bulls now have a solid position, since the opposing break is sellers biting on granite!! The lows cannot be broken, here we are tracking spillover risk-off flows from PBOC in USDJPY, Gold and SHCOMP in particular; Firstly USDJPY : Secondly SHCOMP : Bulls now on the one hand wants to trap sellers but on the other hand wants to load as much as possible. The annoying move of spiking out here without having loaded enough is dangerous; the former move would leave the lows unprotected. Buyers can calmly finish his preparations for the appropriate sizings, welcome the risk which is aiming for a breach in the highs. Note how we are still on track for the 1650 leg: From the painstaking and long-winded pullback, defensive measures have been placed and you can see how well aware retail is of the set-up with 1550 acting as strong support. Looking for 1550 ==> 1600 ==> 1630 ==> 1650 to complete the leg in Q120. As usual thanks to all for keeping your support coming with likes, comments and etc!
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by ridethepig
5
ridethepig | JPY Spot Commentary 2020.02.04Risk markets recovering, well done all those who voted to buy the dip overnight in the Asian bounce. PBOC suturing the wound (for now). On the macro side, strong data from the US manufacturing side should be taken with a pinch of salt as was helped massively via phase 1 and too soon to measure any viral impact. Flow wise, I noticed a lot of fast money clients buying JPY offshore which is reassuring for my shorts. On the Daily chart we are still yet to break through Support : I am looking to add more at 109.2x with initial targets at 108.8x and 108.3x on the day. No one wanting to fight alone against the USD devaluation, sellers are ready to beat the living daylight out of late buyers. Don't forget we can comfortably lean on the 2020 Macro flows for USDJPY: Good luck all those on the sell side, a lot of meat left on the bone and we can open up the short-term flows if we get enough interest in the comments below. As usual thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, charts and etc!
Short
by ridethepig
2
ridethepig | Gold Market Commentary 2020.01.31Let's start by getting our bearings. Firstly we are talking about the candidate... the swing in play. When there is a fleeing enemy in front and soft hands are protecting the resistance, it's important to understanding timing and when to advance and conquer. The swing and initial target was completed at 1595.xx. Although the target has been achieved the coronavirus flows are unlocking the highs. In this chart you can see the previous swing which played out perfectly: If the highs are taken again in this advance it will be a superb example of continuously demanding respect from our opponent. What is the path of least resistance given the current driver? - The topside. What is the more secure resistance or support in our board? - The support. What is the cheapest price in play? - Given that WHO signalling for a national emergency and markets are not taking it well we can trade the momentum breakout towards 1620, 1630 and 1650 with additional stops below 1570. The risk-off moves should continue with USDJPY a good benchmark for reference. I am holding shorts and getting itchy fingers to add at 109.4x as nothing suggest any reason to cover although we have month end flows in play which can make things tricky. To the downside we can target soft support at 108.4x and 108.2x while 109.7x remains strong resistance so keeping stops above. Well done all those who have been making a killing on this move in risk. As usual thanks for keeping your support coming with likes and comments!
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by ridethepig
4
ridethepig | Feel The Bern!Here a very good time to update the Daily chart in EURUSD as we approach the infamous "Loading Zone" at 1.104x for the European close. A temporary reprieve for US data but in this case sellers have already exposed their stops on the highs while buyers continue to load on the ranks. The exchange/consolidation in the short-term flow makes it possible for buyers to continue loading at support. But in this case too, a quiet move (after the powerful moves in Asia) namely consolidation at support then check-mate on the next breakup. This will likely come tonight by Bernie winning in Iowa which will weigh heavy on the USD. You will notice the concentration of forces on the Weekly related diagram: In this position, the direct exploitation of calm waters after the storm is forcing away many participants. It is of prime importance to perform this manoeuvre in the Asian session! Good luck all those in EURUSD, I tactically stay long and watch 1.12xx handle for a break above. To the downside reassessment is only necessary below 1.095. Thanks as usual for keeping the likes and comments coming, jump into the comments with your charts and we can open the discussions!
Long
by ridethepig
8
ridethepig | NZD Spot Commentary 2020.01.31Here we have another fast flow for NZD over the coming sessions; AUD and NZD have both under pressure and making fresh lows. The “Giant Panda” has turned off its lights for a while to contain the spread of the coronavirus meaning the underlying PBoC bid supporting both AUD and to a lot lesser extent NZD remains absent. For the 2020 Macro Map in NZD: An early heads up, if we cannot break above the highs in this flow it will be sending us loud messages that we need to reassess the 2020 macro map at the end of Q1 as the retrace will have done too much damage. For the Flows: BUY NZDUSD 0.645x | TP 0.655x | SL 0.642x While AUDUSD is also at a critical 0.667x level and losing it (not expected) will unlock a major panic move towards 0.62xx. NZDUSD also approaching the key 0.646x and will trigger some profit taking from shorts and a bounce back towards 0.655x. Similarly to AUD, a break below 0.645x in NZD will open a panic move towards 0.633x hence the tight stops. As usual thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments and etc!
Long
by ridethepig
3
ridethepig | CNH Spot Commentary 2020.02.03An important update to the CNH chart after the latest coronavirus measurements and impact calculations. PBOC stepped in as expected to stop the bleeding and SHCOMP ending the day with a lucky -8%: In the FX market, the impact will show over the coming sessions as demand for CNH increases with capital rushing to the doors. This is not a healthy technical looking picture, buyers were tracking the "Cup and Handle" formation earlier last year till we traded the rejection live in the diagram: Although it takes a brave man to step against the current flows as they have been short-circuited via a temporary demand shock, I continue to look to ride the pig to the downside here and trade the leg towards the lows in the 6 handle via USD devaluation. Good luck all those navigating around the coronavirus flows, we will keep the charts updated incase of any breakouts to the topside. If this is the case we will need to reassess the view as the 7.27xx technical target which I mentioned earlier would be back in play. Thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments and etc!
Short
by ridethepig
ridethepig | Apple in the worm for CADNOKA very good time to update the short-term flow setup for CADNOK after such a brilliant squeeze. For those tracking the 2020 Macro flows: This week we have a simple technical move in play. A textbook case of "Apple in the worm" as it seems to me a poor choice of the moment for buyers to continue the advance. Extending the characteristics position (= swing configuration) by letting buyers go overboard and bet on momentum while the macro defence can be a reliable guardian. A better move is to sell the 6.99xx highs here with targets located initially at the support levels 6.865xx.. and then perhaps 6.47xx. The business of a bullish NOK did not become an attacking instrument; stops can be kept comfortably above the 7.00xx handle. Good luck all those trading CADNOK in the coming sessions, as usual thanks for keeping your support coming with likes, comments and etc!
Short
by ridethepig
ridethepig | US 10Y Yields At 1.50 Support A deliberate soft closing down at the 1.50 lows (instead of breaking through allows for an underestimation in the bounce); here, the systematic approach of buying the dip deserves victory. We can cast some light together on playing through the flank: In the extraordinarily traditional sense an inversion which we are looking at always leads to a recession and volatile positioning. This change of cycle that I have mentioned usually crops up in Vol first: But what is typical of the big leagues, and this of course is no exception in US10Y, is and will remain advanced playing fields for advanced swing traders only. Retail making use of this soft close and betting on the continuation will provide the fuel for a spike as they cover and become trapped in a squeeze. Even when smart money appears to have a gun pointed at the head, it always finds the time to mass his troops in defence (now you see why this weekend was vital!!!!)... If you are keen to learn, you should model yourself around these premises. All the best and thanks for keeping your support coming with likes, comments, charts, questions and etc!!
TVC:US10YLong
by ridethepig
2
ridethepig | SHCOMP Market Commentary 2020.01.31As usual thanks for keeping your support coming with likes, comments and etc... Lets get started with a round of important chart updates coming today (which btw is extraordinarily late after a week ban). I would like you to note the position arising here looks as though its "business as usual" for the dip buyer crowd, whereas sellers are seeking salvation in a momentum breakdown against the support. The 2793.xx has now been exposed and the base is open for a typical attack. The macro cycle swing down started here when we traded the highs in April year: As we know, the philosophy of a swing which we have dealt with can wield sound reason for the evaluation of any possible scenarios where flows are involved. But as this example will show, the theory of swings we have widely mentioned in previous charts can also be useful to highlight the notion that battlefields exist. So we are talking here about an area which is needed to break in order to form the breakdown as a first premise. I would recommend that you try to technically understand the two different sides in play, notably should we fail to breakdown then the swing to the extreme topside with a rebound through the red line as the other scenario (this will come via coronavirus fading). It is possible to remain indifferent to direction without great difficult in the game. German Equities are now forming a high and already appear to be coming off: To secure the breakdown we will need Europe and NY to keep the pressure on today, SHCOMP is closed till Monday so gaps expected! Good luck!
SShort
by ridethepig
ridethepig | XRP Market Commentary 2020.01.22XRPUSD pulled back from the highs after a round of profit taking began across most cryptos with bids covering. The dips here in XRPUSD are likely to be shallow amid worries about missing the reflationary bounce, USD devaluation and search for yield. Expecting investors to continue building bullish XRP positions and putting hedges as we approach the highs in the jurisdiction. Levels to track in XRPUSD: support 0.225 (Line in the sand) and resistance 0.25 followed by 0.27. Overall, I see the case for meaningful XRP strength in 2020, but especially if considered versus USD, rather than EUR or GBP - maintaining longs will require patience and tolerance. Difficult to trade, for sure, but I still feel the bigger XRP risk lies to the topside. This is a live example of destroying the defence: Good luck all those buying dips in XRP .
COINBASE:XRPUSDLong
by ridethepig
1