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Ridethepig

ridethepig | USDJPY 2020 Flows (Updated)On the risk front, the WHO signalling for a national emergency and markets are not taking it well. The risk-off moves should continue with USDJPY a good benchmark for reference. I am holding shorts and was adding on Friday as nothing suggest any reason to cover although we had month end flows in play which made things tricky as participants were timid. To the downside we can target soft support at 108.4x and 108.2x while 110.7x remains strong resistance so keeping stops above there if you plan to play the entire macro swing down in 2020 flows: This idea is no less imaginative than the diagram here: Even with yield advantage over JGBs I expect risk to control the flows in particular as we get close to US elections providing a choppy zig zag. There will be good demand for USDJPY below 105 (as Japanese investors have been riding the pig overseas) so look to take partial profits on the way, 100 remains my final target in the flow. Best of luck all those in USDJPY and positioning for the remaining 2020 flows - you can see other strategies below! As usual thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, questions, charts and etc!
Short
by ridethepig
7
ridethepig | Transferring the attackBeing overly defensive is not an act of religious charity, rather a strategic advantage to flow from the demand zone that we established with the Bakkt Floor. There is only one exceptional case in which a weak swing has any justifiable claim to be over-protected, that is when it is being nursed through the function of a growing giant. For example: The base of the swing was formed live here when we traded the overprotection. With this we said farewell to sellers and presented another sad case of "the last offer". Here after the break we are no longer required to talk so much about the technicals. BTC is benefiting from the risk-off sentiment and after trading above $9,500 earlier in the week the Crypto board is turning to the next chapter. A little higher this morning as more risk comes off. Remember BTC also has the fundamental driver via halving entering back into play which I would expect to continue finding demand on dips towards $9,000, while also keeping a close eye on the $10,000 window where we find some further profit taking. The flows remain towards: $13,500 => $16,000 => $33,000 It always boils down to the same situation; a complex swing which may look sound, but has one stick opponent. According to the technical rules, the damage was already done on the break. I will continue to trade the buy side for now and actively looking to add longs on the day in BTC, LTC, EOS and other major Cryptos. If we get enough interest we can start to open up the faster intraday flows for Cryptos on Hourly and H4 charts. As usual thanks all for keeping the support coming with likes and comments!
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by ridethepig
5
ridethepig | JPY Spot Commentary 2020.01.23USDJPY with important updates from the overnight Asian session. A technical break of the key 109.7x that we have been tracking has opened up the downside. Holding shorts and selling rallies remains my favoured play, all levels remain the same 109.7x broken support, 109.2x initial targets, 107.6x and 106.6x extensions. While to the topside reassessment needed above 102.3. The struggle for liberation has been carried out, sellers have taken control in the jurisdiction and should continue the attack on support. The elimination of the channel base (breakout it out) from the swing, afterwards targets should be directed and aimed at the new 2020 swing: For the rest of the flows, the key level in play is 109.7x now to the topside. This has been clearly broken and with no one wanting to fight alone against the USD devaluation, sellers are ready to beat the living daylight out of late buyers! Good luck all those on the sell side, a lot of meat left on the bone and we can open up the short-term flows if we get enough interest in the comments below. As usual thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, charts and etc!
Short
by ridethepig
ridethepig | ECB Macro FlowsHere we go...Markets are not expecting a lot from the ECB fundamental front , rates will remain on hold with more focus on the hard macro data tomorrow. The only thing to 🔎today is for clues around duration of policy review. On the technical side , jurisdictions are defined clearly on both sides as EUR is comfortably holding the 1.108/9x support. The initial targets are located at 1.125x resistance while stops can be kept comfortably below 1.103x. My feeling is that macro players betting on the topside are itching to get going as the board is setup in favour of EUR. Happy to hold longs for now. In the Long-Term chart (see diagram below) buyers have broken out of the resistance channel; amongst other effects, this reduced the sellers in EURUSD to become a prisoner in their own camp. The main function of the breakout appears to be as a competent bi-product in the USD devaluation / 2020 reflationary theme. The technicals for the long term are striving to reach 1.21xx and beyond. But the concept of "attacker" goes much further. You can also defend areas (for example the 1.108/9x today in ECB) or defend yourself against a breakout: Buyers are securing a wide stretch of the swing territory. This could be considered as gaining momentum with green shoots appearing in Europe already. This means that macro recovery will be used as weapon of force: Good luck all those in EURUSD, and trading ECB today. We can open the short-term flows if there is enough interest in the comments.. as usual thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments and etc!
Long
by ridethepig
14
ridethepig | LTC Market Commentary 2020.01.31LTC clearly outperforming and taking the spotlight with the cross briefly trading above $70. A serious early contender for "Trade of the Year" after we rallied +70% from the lows. In any case, I am happy with the first targets at 64.xx, but ahead of the weekend, I would be surprised to see much further downside. On the day, support will be found at 62.5x with resistance at 70.0x. The correctness of my evaluation is validated by the course of BTC in the moves. For those wanting to track the flows: Good luck all those buying dips in LTC and BTC. As usual thanks for keeping your support coming with likes, comments, and etc!
COINBASE:LTCUSDLong
by ridethepig
ridethepig | EOS Market Commentary 2020.01.31EOS also approaching first targets in the swing at $4.5 area as highlight previously. Some minor profit taking is expected on the cross but buying dips remains the preferred trade. That said, I don’t think there will be a prolonged, hard sell off. It’s not very inspiring but as long as EOS remains a funding currency patience and opportunism is the order of the day. Bull's next move sees the swing materialise into an impulsive nature, for the threat is now an advance on the initial target at $4.50 at the right moment and extensions at $7.50. At the point where the swing was created will see defence return and absorb the momentum break, and is therefore logically linked to profit taking. In the above flow, bears could not make good use of the channel as an attacking instrument. Buyers took full advantage of this, and I would consider the skeletons in BTC and LTC as totally identical in their characteristics. As usual thanks for keeping your support coming with likes, comments and etc!
BITFINEX:EOSUSDLong
by ridethepig
BoC Cuts & RBA Hold - AUDCAD Double Whammy!Highlights overnight going to AUD with overshoots in the U-rate as expected. This number is going to trigger the RBA surprise hold that we have been tracking in this diagram: Large hands spotted on the AUD bid last ear and will continue to do so as a lot more unwinding of positions needs to take place from those betting on FURTHER rate cuts. Tracking 0.692x in AUDUSD as a sensible target from the initial knee-jerk reaction. The strategy for the flows from the AUD side in the chart have been dissected here in this diagram: On the CAD side , Poloz caught me by surprise with a very dovish BoC. This was particularly surprising considering his pokerface at the fireside chat only two weeks ago! Focus now shifts onto whether this will be a “one off” cut…in my books the move in USDCAD should be contained by the 1.32 handle - the data (although below par) is not weak enough to justify a full blown cutting cycle. On the positioning side , long and medium term flows are still betting heavily long CAD so expect 1.32xx to provide a good opportunity to re-engage with a swing back towards 1.28xx later in the year as those longs from the recent rally begin to unwind. Good luck all those in AUDCAD and holding for the long-term, this is going to the highs like a knife through butter. As usual, thanks for all the support with likes, comments, charts and etc !!
Long
by ridethepig
2
ridethepig | EOS Market Commentary 2020.01.20A funny weekend for Cryptos. Profit taking across most major coins which is only natural after such an impressive advance. BTCUSD spiked to above 9,000, just shy of the 9,200 pivot. EOS has been reacting to the increased purchases of LiquidX. Price settling back towards the highs here and a healthy target at $4.50 seems appropriate to me, especially given how we are already +72% in the previous units. The market will start to get worried about becoming overstretched, soft hands are closing as we head into February, but there is a window for a major breakup here with many underestimating the Crypto inflows over the next couple of weeks I think. I recommend to stay long EOS. GL all those trading today.
BITFINEX:EOSUSDLong
by ridethepig
ridethepig | AUD Strategy NotesThe main and secondary functions of the next swing. How it behaves, when it strikes and becomes impulsive, and how it does when put under pressure from the defender. The function of the zig-zag and impulsive wave is to immobilise our opponent. The retrace is a tree-shaker, it itself tends to be very flexible. And yet it is common for retail to display signs of considerable over-exposure and lack of flexbility. Namely: (1) From the Macro chart: (2) A potential CB short-circuit: It seems that on the longer term charts AUD has already packed its bag and set out on its travels. (a) the journey looks promising; buy the dips and look to cover positions into resistance. (b) if it returns to the starting point of the journey to squeeze early buyers (c) if RBA is in a position to take care of the monetary side. It is crystal clear that RBA have previously hinted at the idea of a Feb cut, the protection here comes from the RBNZ surprise hold. Although it may not seem so, the RBNZ lead is of great importance; it shows how little elasticity the RBA & RBNZ have. For the details on the cross I keep digging deeper in AUDNZD, we are approaching key value levels and RBNZ has shown signs of distress with NZD at this level: In this simplest of all swings, AUD sellers will take a short holiday and allow the break of 0.692x. There is a clear head and shoulders technical setup with 0.684x neckline. Should we lose these lows (unlikely) then the move towards 0.675x is unlocked. Assuming employment data holds on Wednesday then RBA will remain on hold and market will be caught out of position. As usual thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments and etc. Jump into the conversation with your charts, ideas and questions!
Long
by ridethepig
1
ridethepig | EUR Market Commentary 2020.01.20EUR testing the 1.108/9x zone this morning as mentioned already earlier this month. At this point all soft hands who tried out guessing the reflationary flows and USD devaluation in December are washed out. Activity for the European open picked up, I remain bullish and have actively been adding longs in EURUSD. Stops can be kept comfortably below 1.103x while targets are located at 1.117x and 1.125x. Remember we are tracking only three things: 1. the swing which is dictating the range 2. the opposing side which will become trapped 3. the swing behind the swing which is being trapped The swinging process is attacking the opposition defending the swing you are playing. So in this case sellers are standing between the first targets at 1.125x - thus it would expose the threatened highs. If this breakout is absolute, i.e the swing may make a new higher high then we can talk of a complete swing like in this diagram: For those wanting to check the Long-Term Fundamental chart: Good luck all those selling USD, a lot of opportunities in G10 FX.
Long
by ridethepig
3
ridethepig | NZD Spot Commentary 2020.01.20AUD and NZD flawlessly trading in sync with our range trade flow picture (see diagram): Eyes this week are on AUD employment prints, another drop in the unemployment rate will be enough to take RBA cuts off the table. I’m against expectations and looking them to follow RBNZ in Dec with the surprise hold. I still think we will find offers at the 0.692x in AUDUSD and this will carry NZD as collateral so 0.666x NZDUSD makes sense to play the same map for now. Remember we can comfortably lean on the long-term flows we mapped out for 2020, the direction is on our side. You know the drill: A clean and simple leg to track: BUY 0.660x => TP 0.666x with Invalidation and reassessment required below 0.655x. Thanks as usual for keeping the likes and comments coming ... Good luck!
Long
by ridethepig
1
ridethepig | GBP Market Commentary 2020.01.14The power to breakdown has been developed knowingly and systematically, unlike chop/consolidation which frequently occurs. The effect of the breakdown is heightened by BOE turning very dovish and calling up for Sterling devaluation, which in their eyes must be required for offsetting the loss in UK market access. Compare the following two diagrams: Sellers step in on the election day as expected with a strong barrier. A sweep of the highs. Can sellers maintain the breakdown? In the first, the test of 1.35 sent buyers wandering on grounds of an orderly Brexit, depriving sellers valuable resistance. However, it was dangerous for buyers to carry on because the eye of Brexit is on it. After a Johnson majority came the selloff and now the attempt by sellers to reinstate the strategic breakdown which was previously broken is powerfully gaining momentum from the monetary side. Should we get the breakdown, the move will be fast as the insurance cut from BOE will not last beyond May. Bailey starts in May, it will take some time for the Johnson/Javid fiscal taps to work its way into the MPC forecasts meaning another late 2020 cut is then on the cards (not in play with this chart as will unlock 1.15). To put simply, a dovish BOE and hard Brexit will keep rates in the lower bound and QE infinity will return in 2021. For the immediate term, market clearly caught on the wrong side; 1.290x is next followed by 1.277x. Very difficult to get constructive on UK markets with BOE turning dovish. On the EURGBP side: Good luck all those on the sell side in Cable and other Sterling crosses, a lot of meat left on the bone. As usual thanks so much for keeping your support coming with likes, comments and etc.
Short
by ridethepig
13
ridethepig | RUB Spot Commentary 2020.01.20Now bull's reserves have been activated and exhausted, the diagonal swing towards the new lows at the key 60 handle is the aim. This momentum play is a characteristic impulsive swing. The moves constitute a great example of the lust to exploit the brilliant effect of technical analysis, because of the accuracy that is endowed with incredible resilience. The first compelling chart shows the highs being set in this monthly swing; the total removal of its lows opened up the same flows in EURRUB: The swings we have just glimpsed at are quite typical and although it will likely not feel necessary here, the importance of in checking the 60 handle for headlines and masses. Mostly only one player benefits from this entire flow, but that is quite sufficient. I expect sellers to show some strength over the coming days and weeks. A lot of talk of few large hands in Oil buying dividends. In any case looking for the infamous 60 target. Thanks as usual for all the support with likes, comments, charts and etc. Jump into the conversation with any questions.
Short
by ridethepig
Bitcoin - Seizing a BreakoutThe healthy retrace in Crypto markets clearly over. Crypto buyers leaping forward, this time rather than with that distinctive youthful arrogance and energetic flow we have a far more gentle and modest approach. To avoid any room for misunderstanding, we absolutely must dig deeper into the importance of flanking . In this position, note how sellers would be loading to their positions in disaster territory while smart money notices that they get caught out of position in rough terrain: Once buyers stepped in (we are with smart money flanking price out from the lows), this leaves total control over the channel in play. Our opponents (in this case sellers) should never have given us the chance to seize the momentum, thus with a decisive breakout over the Christmas Holidays I began " Marching Troops to the Border " ... The theory of our opposition is totally caught off balance with just a simple technical break; previous sellers fighting for role as leader of the channel flows by using offers into resistance areas are forced into covering. Notice how the advance has taken place from a position where sellers have not been able to mount strong barriers. The bear is condemned to die for the common good. Well done all those riding the pig, a very clean and straight forward swing so far. The entries are going to start becoming more complex as we advance into no-mans land. Another example of the break would be as follows in LTC: Secondly (EOS): We shall wrap this up on the demonstrated accumulation and breakout strategy. Good luck all those in Longs across the main Cryptos. Thanks as usual for keeping the support coming with likes, comments and etc.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by ridethepig
1
ridethepig | BTC Market Commentary 2019.04.12With a headline that Circle are looking at sanctioning customers with Poloniex accounts BTC is sent sharply higher above $7,500. As with most cryptos recently, the apathetically weak bulls are shaken off the headline as it quickly settles backdown before continuation from large hands. Shabby geopolitics and protectionism will continue to be met with a lacklustre reaction and flows into BTC and other cryptos will continue. The West smells of apathy and fatigue, democracy is struggling to get momentum and clients I speak to are ready to react in the short-term. An update to the technicals here with the Bakkt floor in play: Here tracking for the catalyst into year end, especially as BTC has failed to break down to any of the trade war headlines in recent times. I will continue to trade the buy side for now. Thanks for keeping the support coming with likes and comments.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by ridethepig
7
ridethepig | The SwingWe are going to dig deeper into the concept of the wave/swing and how to create a positional strategy from a strictly technical sense. After the latest test of 1.108/9x, which was so difficult for sellers with its positional issues, the next swing should appear "a piece of cake". I suspect this will lead you to ask whether imaginary protection is enough!? Be a man, no time to be afraid here on such a "protected" area. Seizing the breakup on the next swing has three stages: 1. the swing which is dictating the range 2. the opposing side which will become trapped 3. the swing behind the swing which is being trapped The swinging process is attacking the opposition defending the swing you are playing. So in this case sellers are standing between the first targets at 1.125x - thus it would expose the threatened highs. If this breakout is absolute, i.e the swing may make a new higher high then we can talk of a complete swing. Here the swing is only in the 'early game' stages, the swing in play is only "partially" possible. How easy would it be if we went straight up (!!!) - more experienced traders would sooner stick their head inside a Crocodile's mouth 🐊. The slower the swing, the more respect. Bravery is needed, a swing without a foundation is a swing without power! As a rule, the plan here is to attack in such a way that we take immense control and achieve an attack next week. As usual, thanks so much for keeping the likes and comments coming. Jump into the conversation below with your charts and ideas on EURUSD!
Long
by ridethepig
11
ridethepig | NZD Price Dissection [Live]As we approach the 0.660x handle it is time to take profits from our shorts, well done those following from the entire process from the previous diagrams: All of this is taking place while inside the Macro swing: The radius of our flows has been secure in a wide territory. This could also be considered a base formation in a sense of the word. The major play is to the topside for 1H20 as Dollar devaluation is the underlying theme. A lack of space prevented us from reaching all the way to the topside in the macro target, so we had to briefly pause for a few zig-zag range trading formations. This is a superb live example of trading fast flows and forcing short-term moves. Good luck all those positioning in NZDUSD for the coming weeks, I hope these short-term charts have proven helpful.
Long
by ridethepig
6
ridethepig | EUR Market Commentary 2020.01.17Eyes on the NY session here with Euro approaching the 1.108/9x lows, I will be actively buying today and sticking with the bullish view with targets located at 1.124/5x. You will see how large hands absorb all of the selling pressure and eat up late breakdown players expected an effortless momentum trade, whereas the reality is the strength of macro forces in play defending the area and will be beautifully demonstrated. The Seller realises the error of his way too late and began to run to the hills. The comedy goes as follows: For example in this position: The strength of the view can be protected in the fact that it is immune from the opposing breakdown. The distant view is decisive: The key point here is that the calendar is light so we are trading technical flows, I am buying the lows at 1.108/9x with targets at 1.124/5x for the highs. While stops can be kept below 1.100x as it will take a break below to demand reassessment of the bullish view. Good luck all those in G10 FX.
Long
by ridethepig
6
ridethepig | NZD Market Commentary 2020.01.17The fruits of my forecasts stretching over the short-term range, will accompany you down this thorny path of range trading, but we cannot avoid consolidation, because only painful chop can help resolve ranges. The dynamic constraints of the flows are clearly defined jurisdictions on both sides (see diagram): The tendency towards advancing further is making the retrace possible. At least for the near-term - full compensation for the flows will only be effective from the attack on 0.666/45 and what is more urgent than an attack on resistance?! An examination of buyers becoming overstretched at the highs thus gives a plus to Sellers. On the other hand, importantly, we know - our macro map for NZD is approaching the mid-game. How should we evaluate that? Is the difficulty only due to the fact that patience is hard to protect? or do other macro factors threaten us? Best of luck those adding to short-term offers inside a long-term macro flow...a mouthful. This is very advanced trading and would recommend using the flows to centralise and manoeuvre around towards the flank. As usual thanks for keeping your support coming with likes and comments rolling, so far a superb forecast of event-risk flows so far and traded live here in both AUD and NZD.
Short
by ridethepig
ridethepig | EURCHF Market Commentary 2020.15.01CHF a clear winner in the G10 space has been a finding strong bid via smart money smelling the markets strength of conviction in the SNB ability to intervene decreasing. Positioning is far from stretched, meaning there is plenty of room left on the boat. For those tracking the USDCHF flows 0.970x remains the key level to track: The technical picture is clearer in EURCHF in my books, a clean breakdown in play with eyes on the C leg completing at 1.06xx. I have switched to the sell side after the recent breakdown and actively adding shorts in the 1.08xx handle. The 1.06xx handle will become very attractive for longs next month... good luck all trading the selloff into end of Jan.
Short
by ridethepig
ridethepig | NZD Retail Sales FlowWith retail sales out in NZ tonight it is a good time for a short-term flow update. It to me seems a poor choice of moment to advance for bulls, extending the lows after a retest of the 0.6645/60 sell zone with a weak print tonight makes more sense to me. This would be in accordance with the needs of the flow. The 2020 macro map takes on the retrace leg, but another sweep of the lows would be a more reliable guardian. Here recommending longs into the 0.6645/60 resistance as a good opportunity to sell the headline and mount a last attack for the penetration of the lows. We will update the chart should we see the highs visited today. Good luck all those trading Retail sales, after the distortion around last months print it is highly likely in my books that we see a soft undershoot tonight. As usual thanks so much for keeping your support coming with likes, comments and etc.
Long
by ridethepig
8
ridethepig | LTC Market Commentary 2020.14.01It is well known that all major Cryptos are breaking out and conducting very credible momentum flows with helpful sizings. One of the most important requisites of swing trading for those Crypto traders is the ability to squeeze your opponent with momentum breaks. The breakout is much more the game changer and should in no way be compared to stale bids from the retrace leg. So we have the following picture: Bulls were heading for the breakout and at the same time protecting the lows against penetration by sellers.... Here too Bulls choose the breakout, and resolve the range so that it can become a bit more enterprising. Let us take a good look at BTC before and after CME. Sellers are half dead and with little on the calendar to support any retrace, buyers are securing the superiority in the region: So, after getting rid of the "weeds" and shaking out soft hands, all major Crypto buyers are achieving progress in areas which are strategically important for the mid and long term. Good luck all those holding LTC from the initial 42 and 40 entries, you can now sit tight and see how this plays out. As usual thanks so much for all the support with likes, comments, questions, charts and etc. Hope it helps.
COINBASE:LTCUSDLong
by ridethepig
3
ridethepig | BTC Destroying The DefenceA quick update here to dissect the possible motives behind the exchange and cast some light over the possible technical targets in the sequence. In order to dig deeper into the pursuit of position exchange, we shall in what follows highlight the occupation of zones for strategical importance and the apparent desire to exchange sides will fall into our lap like a ripe fruit. The simplest example would be as in the following diagram - The Waiting Game: Bears wish to occupy the zone, in order to deliver a breakdown on the lows; but as they tried the move from an overextended and crowded position, buyers had time to prevent them doing so. The correct move in the lows was always to get long, leaving sellers no time to protect against the squeeze, because he will have to overcome the psychological feeling of retreat and recapture. In the latest chart indicated via " Marching Troops Towards The Border " you will see the exchange: We also now destroy the sellers because we recognise the importance of geopolitical risk entering back into the room. In the simplest case it is a technical defence of material value; every defender can be seen handsomely rewarded. From the Bakkt lows, we have come to recognise various resistance above preventing the momentum; these following levels will aid to an impulsive leg and trigger a breakout etc: 7500 => 8400 => 13600 . It is worth striving to destroy these levels in any case, but the concept of "risk" via US-Iran goes much further. You can also defend a hedge against governments (e.g People vs Establishment narrative) or defend yourself against risk-off flows on the approach. See attached Gold and JPY ideas for "Protection" the plays as follows: Gold: JPY: Because of the current themes, the macro protects and secures a wide stretch of the flows and territory. Your urge to destroy the resistance above in BTC should extend with Geo-political risk, in the narrower or broader sense. Eyes on the momentum breakout coming in 2020. Good luck all those buying dips in BTC.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by ridethepig
2