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Ridethepig

ridethepig | Dollar Weekly StrategyWith DXY sitting at resistance, I don’t see room for any further near term gains in Dollar. More importantly we are approaching key value levels for sellers from the last Q and large corporates have been spotted on the offer in USD. I have made the Dollar chart available and will publish it with al the more pleasure, since it is particularly interesting as we are sitting in the age of the Aggressive USD devaluation. So here is the chart: Sellers are not afraid of the flank attack because strong macro forces are in play in the monthly chart. The play is centralised; buyers must begin to be felt and in addition the prospect of a breakout down is driving the desperation of the exchange: This illustrates nicely the struggle that USD buyers face. Motto: first position, then defend, and finally breakdown. Markets starting to find their footing for 2020 after clearing NFP. Focus this week shifting to a round of important US macro prints, a key week for those trading USD pairs. Good luck all those on the sell side in USD, major moves in play and important chart updates coming in the next few sessions. I will have live coverage as usual in the Telegram . Thanks for keeping your support coming with likes, comments, questions, charts and etc!
TVC:DXYShort
by ridethepig
Bitcoin CME Positional PlayBTC once again in the headlights with CME options launching 🚦. Has the Santa rally got more room to run, or is real money already comfortably positioned and happy to stand aside? The recent rally flushed a lot of late sellers out and I would be surprised to see the illiquid move lower seen in 2019 completely reinstated. Internal data here shows that clients have picked up an appetite for BTC. With risk markets on the front foot I would be surprised to see BTC not benefit more from CME opening, so there is no need to panic here. The bias is still to keep long while above 7500, while adding on dips. Medium term the 8500 level is key to unlock 13600. This diagram illustrates the strategy of a central breakout against a retrace defence: Bulls now have the attacking position in the crosshairs. That is a definitive advantage, but here the weakness of bears (we shall soon see why offers are "weak") will soon lead to the surrender of the channel i.e Buyers are obliged to equalise by playing the breakout. To comfortably lean on the Long-term Macro flows. Since the breakout of 6,213 is necessary for bulls, an exchange was the only way to prove the defence against sellers ... You should memorise this motive of forcing an opponent to make up its mind, we will dig deeper into this motive with the next few charts. With this move and the next one a "impulsive" wave is introduced, which should be considered siding with considering the spirit of the yearly opening. Correct play consisted of buying breaks of resistance and the doubling of sizes on the next channel break, exploiting at the same time the somewhat uncomfortable position of sellers in the retrace. Because of the current themes, the macro protects and secures a wide stretch of the flows and territory. Your urge to destroy the resistance above in BTC should extend with CME and Geo-political risk, in the narrower or broader sense. Eyes on the momentum breakout coming in 2020. Good luck all those buying dips in BTC and as usual thanks for all your support with likes, comments, questions, charts and etc.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by ridethepig
ridethepig | AUD Market Commentary 2020.01.10Ending the week with instructive profit taking from bulls in exemplary fashion....Average hourly earnings disappointing but nothing to write home about. Highlights in the report going to manufacturing jobs getting crushed via protectionism and those maintaining longs now have a free hand to play the next short-term swing. I love it when USD goes for a walk. The move in play for the coming sessions and looks difficult to defend against. I am tracking 0.6925x to prevent the breakup for bulls this week and trigger profit taking. After an exchange of direction flanking works decisively well and the execution timing-wise is of importance. For those tracking the 2020 AUD Macro map and digging into the fundamental side I would highly recommend checking the following diagram: Thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments and etc. If you have any questions/charts as usual jump into the comments and we can open the conversations. Good luck all those in AUD.
Short
by ridethepig
6
ridethepig | EURGBP Market Commentary 2020.01.10By now there should be no surprises with BOE coming out on the wires at the 0.853x which was BOE stress level on the cross via Hard & Extreme Brexit scenarios (both still on the table). On the Euro side, selling has started to run out of steam and here the choice is between a breakout or more inside range trading. The first allows bulls to take charge once more; though the second allows room for more loading in the medium-term Pound shorts. We are getting closer to protecting the highs in Pound by inserting heavy support in EURGBP and protecting the lows; here the natural targets come in at 0.872x with extensions 0.90xx and 0.95xx for those trading the macro swing. The following well-know chart was played out before in EURGBP and this is no less imaginative: We shall close this chapter with a really unnatural looking move, this theatrical gesture from Carney yesterday - I mean has worked; Pound bulls want to refute it forthwith, but so far it is turning out to be very difficult. Eyes on the Pound flush for Brexit impact. Thanks as usual for keeping the likes and support coming, drop a line with any ideas or charts...
Long
by ridethepig
TSLA Overheating !!TSLA overheating and valuations are currently stretched for even the most optimistic assumptions. Based on current valuations at $490, Tesla would need to be delivering 1,300,000 cars within the next 5 years. In my models, stock is fairly valued at +/- 280 but with an initial target of 360. On technical side at the top here you will notice exhaustion as predicted deliveries enter into "overpromised" territory. Of course the usual crowd will defend with China plant opening and unicorns expected. Based on current expectations, TSLA will need to deliver almost 475k cars this year and with demand starting to cough via late cycle fears this is looking doubtful to say the least. Flow wise, actively selling 490 overshoots with initial targets at 360 followed by 280 extensions. While to the topside, invalidation and reassessment necessary at 525. Tracking closely delivery numbers for 2020 but with the boat fully loaded on one side and short interest as a percentage of float still below 20% it is a screaming sell. Good luck all those on the sell-side in TSLA over the coming sessions.
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by ridethepig
15
ridethepig | CAD Market Commentary 2020.01.09Interesting price action in USDCAD after another round of soft data from Canada. Poloz has a lot of work to do tonight if BoC are to move as rate markets are materially underpriced, especially on the front end. Expecting a dovish ‘fireside’ with early signs of encouraging demand above 1.30 this morning. Starting to cover shorts after the break through 1.304x has opened a move towards 1.31 and 1.317x, the original entries in the 2020 macro map: USDCAD LMT BUY 1.304x => TP1 1.310x => TP2 1.317x | STP 1.299x The reflation theme which is a bi-product of the dollar devaluation allowed CAD to outperform in the immediate term however now USD is in full control as CAD macro prints have started to turn down. As long as USD remains in first gear we will have room to test the topside again, as there are two sides to the currency pairs, rather than CAD strength in this move we are trading USD weakness. As usual jump into the comments with your charts and questions to open the discussion, best of luck all those trading live and thanks for keeping the support coming with likes!!!
Long
by ridethepig
1
ridethepig | BRL 2020 Macro MapThis train is picking up speed and as most of those who follow the Brazilian chart updates will know there is now momentum via Bolsonaro's pension reform. This is giving consumers the ability to drive growth into 2020 and beyond via things like credit and the appropriate monetary policy. Inflation is still coming down which means CB can keep lower rates, this will provide profit taking and reloading opportunities in 2020. For those really wanting to dig deeper into the flows, retail housing market will be a useful gauge to the next chapter as it will highlight the pace / acceleration of the pick-up. On the technical side, a very clean 5 wave sequence over a multi year period. What we are trading here is the ABC corrective leg via Brazil momentum and capturing a double whammy with USD devaluation. Here tracking 3.70x as the level in play for USDBRL in 2020 macro flows, I also favour BRL on other crosses in particular versus MXN: Thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, questions and etc. We can open the Brazil conversation here for the year ahead. For those wanting to dig deeper with the 2020 strategies I have attached them in the related charts.
Short
by ridethepig
7
ridethepig | NZD Market Commentary 2020.01.10AUD data continues to improve and with retail sales overshooting AUDUSD is approaching the key 0.690x. It is hard to argue for a cut this Feb with domestic data improving, though it will take a break above 0.692x for me to get excited. I am bullish on AUDUSD medium term but expect some of those who initiated longs yesterday and positioned for weaker US payrolls have a good opportunity to unwind. NZDUSD will move as collateral and therefore look for the same flows in NZDUSD. For the event today markets are tracking for 160k on the headline. Today I am against consensus and my models have forecast a slight undershoot to 123k via Holiday seasonal effects. This will trigger a soft knee-jerk reaction in USD sell-off before profit taking kills the day. Only a heavy miss (below 75K) short-circuits the expected flow as will initiate an impulsive move to the downside in USD. We are starting to get very complex trading here with flows inside flows inside macro flows. Here would be worth thinking about the 2020 macro map to follow up with: The lust to expand the retrace is still there, despite all countermeasures from bulls. The correct move, however, is a short-term news flow play with targets 0.664x and 0.666x before profit taking (and short-term selling opportunities are up for grabs). So we may say; massive undershoots would be good, because we will have another possible ticket in the USD devaluation leg with NZDUSD trading eventually towards 0.690x. The risks to trading this leg come from overshoots on the payroll side with NFP (unexpected). Good luck all trading NZDUSD into the flows today.
Long
by ridethepig
ridethepig | AUD Market Commentary 2020.01.09AUD completing the retrace and starting to form support as Trump confirms the end of the circus. Australian local macro prints have started to improve, particularly in the housing sector and on the trade side. For the menu tonight we have retail sales in play and a leg back towards 0.69x looks imminent. On the macro side, RBA expected to cut once more in Feb to 0.5% and the rate cycle is already over. If data continues to improve and follow the solid unemployment prints we saw last week, then they will have missed the boat to cut once more as income tax cut later in the year. This will be enough to keep AUD in bid over 2020 and 2021 with a clean zig zag trading-wise. While the multi-year chart is crystal clear: Here AUDNZD would be worth thinking about increasing long exposure in order to follow up the coming RBNZ intervention / AUD outperformance leg. However, this plan to attack the highs is currently impossible, because AUD markets are still pricing a move from RBA in Feb. The correct manoeuvre, despite all counters will come from the AUD side: We will do a deep dive into the USD side with NFP tomorrow for the flows in the live telegram with a round of chart updates and strategy outlooks. GL all those in AUDUSD, thanks as usual for keeping the likes and comments rolling in!
Long
by ridethepig
4
ridethepig | AUDNZD Finding A Floor?Here AUDNZD would be worth thinking about increasing long exposure in order to follow up the coming RBNZ intervention / AUD outperformance leg. However, this plan to attack the highs is currently impossible, because AUD markets are still pricing a move from RBA in Feb. The correct manoeuvre, despite all counters will come from the AUD side: NZD is well blockaded in the 2020 map: AUD on the other hand has catching up to do: I often consider the lows as the stem game for my new philosophy in the swing. As can be viewed here, bears are constantly trying to force its opponent to surrender the lows. This sort of tendency, which toys with the idea of what is happening is cooking what I call a surprise strategy. The move will come from AUD data overshooting and taking RBA off Feb off the table, this will close the cycle in monetary policy and mark the official transition into the next chapter of economics. We are trading the second leg in the swing: GL all those in AUDNZD, thanks as usual for keeping the likes and comments rolling in. Feel free to post your charts and ideas in the comments.
Long
by ridethepig
ridethepig | Sticking With Gold in CNY Here we can focus on the realms of reflationary risks that are around the corner, the struggle to shake out bulls is identical to the struggle we saw in 2016 which is reassuring, and for that reason our problem is reduced to a timing issue. For those tracking the previous diagrams in Gold it is obvious in USD terms both on the Weekly and Daily. Weekly: Daily: What is surprising is that the boat is still not fully loaded which is quite unusual to see this late in the game. The swings otherwise always appear as waves which are being defended and the defender is always assigned to a direction! Very true; but waves in a macro trend are swings of more importance. So it should seem relatively normal to treat them with full sizings and extensions. Here is clearly a strong move in miners, though it involves the sharp threat of capitulation for bears. Which would make things much easier for trading XAU: On the other hand there is also risk from 2's 5's: Bears will have to overcome the entire flow which is now ready to continue marching forward towards the targets. For those tracking the end of year positioning flows for 2020 Q1, reflationary risks are around the corner!! After months of choppy waters , finally bulls are emerging from beneath the woodwork as we begin the flows towards 1650. I stick to my average forecast of XAUUSD $1650 and expect Gold to hit $1595, $1650 and $1800 on a 6, 12 and 24m basis. This is my final target in the 5 wave swing, afterwards I will expect Gold to enter in consolidation via profit taking. Thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, charts and etc. And as usual the comments are open for all.
FX_IDC:XAUCNYLong
by ridethepig
ridethepig | Gold Market Commentary 2020.01.06A very good time to update the Gold chart after a huge gap up for the open forr the first swing target. Sadly no surprises via risk ticking higher and providing the catalyst in completing these flows: In my books, markets are happy to continue trading the same USD devaluation flows which will keep Gold supported via reflationary hedges even if (highly unlikely) risk passes away in the immediate term. This will keep Gold supported and allow the climb towards 1700 to continue after some minor profit taking at the 61.8. For those following the strategy we covered previously, you will know the breakout has been flawless ever since finding key support at the 1440x lows: With Santanomics in full swing and reflationary risks around the corner I stick to my average forecast of $1650 and expect Gold to hit $1595, $1650 and $1800 on a 6, 12 and 24m basis. This is my final technical target in the 5 wave swing, afterwards I will expect Gold to enter in consolidation via profit taking. Tracking the relative breakout vs SPX closely: Lastly on the mining side: Thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, charts and etc. And as usual the comments are open for all.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by ridethepig
3
ridethepig | LTC Market Commentary 2020.01.06Finally guess who is back??? You know what that means...Macro coverage in the live channel and charts on Tradingview all day everyday will resume as usual with today's session! Lets jump straight in...LTC is in the habit of pinning bears by choosing the momentum manoeuvre via a breakout . Bulls have done very well in this way so far, the logic which seems to justify the selling absorption is based on two premises: => Firstly the auxiliary flows via risk which have been brought over to Crypto via US-Iran. Buyers as usual are rewarded favourable for unpleasantness of the shaken geopolitical arena and lack of confidence in establishment. => The technical underpinning needs to happen sooner rather than later before the reflationary flows exhaust - e.g: I would also like to add that late bears who were previously betting on the breakdown of Cryptos and for LTC to go to zero are often inclined to endure their pain in being underwater for some length of time; once they capitulate (we will see the market shaken off immediately via a breakout) our targets will unlock. My view can be seen here in BTC with marching troops towards the border: As usual thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments and etc coming. Good luck all those buying dips in BTC, LTC, EOS and other Cryptos.
COINBASE:LTCUSDLong
by ridethepig
ridethepig | BTC Market Commentary 2019.12.20BTC volumes are impressive and longs starting to follow through notably more aggressive ahead of CME. Even if the Global reflation theme materialises next year, as many are outguessing, while this artificial USD devaluation would help support growth in the short-term, the erosion of confidence in the establishment and monetary system will have significant consequences. When markets realise the Fed has been funding the Whitehouse BTC will effectively become a hedge against governments. Look to buy on dips towards 7100, while a break of 7500 would trigger momentum and further encourage the view. Overall, I see the case for meaningful BTC strength in 2020, but especially if considered versus USD, rather than EUR or GBP - maintaining longs will require patience and tolerance. Thanks all for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, questions, charts and etc. As usual jump into the comments with your ideas and views to open the discussion for all!
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by ridethepig
7
BTC - Marching Troops To The Border...Large hands coming underneath and pushing price straight back out of the lows as widely expected because of how cheap BTC is. This is a gift in this business, you can see BTC finding strong support at the lows in 7000 handle. Those following will know I have been (and continue) to aggressively buy the 7000/7100 lows, as soon as we crack 7500 expect accelerated profit taking from shorts to accelerate through the level. I will also be happy to engage further on a momentum break. The process of " Marching Troops To The Border " makes sense with the market clearly in holiday mode. I will be covering in detail the technicals behind this strategy in the next @ridethepig lessons. So far it is paying out fairly good, a lot of these are one-clickers but I do not worry about this as drawdowns are always very minimal. You see how the entries are always in sync with the lows, they are satisfying my logical desire... wash, rinse and repeat. Overall, I see the case for meaningful BTC strength in 2020, but especially if considered versus USD, rather than EUR or GBP - maintaining longs will require patience and tolerance. Difficult to trade, for sure, but I still feel the bigger BTC risk lies to the topside. Good luck all those buying dips in BTC.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by ridethepig
1
ridethepig | EUR Market Commentary 2020.01.07EUR ticking higher for the open as liquidity returns from the holiday period. On the whole I am happy with how the euro has held, while we discussed yesterday macro hands betting on the reflation theme are hardly moonwalking but we are making progress nonetheless. Continue to buy dips here, I am becoming increasingly aggressive with sizings, however certainly aware that 1.12xx is proving difficult. A sustained failure to break here will see us retrace towards the lower end of 1.11xx otherwise its business as usual with the initial target at 1.125 (see below diagram). Additionally, we can comfortably lean on the macro charts over the coming months as we see the green shoots reappearing in Europe: Those mid and long term plays can continue to eventually target 1.21xx and 1.25xx in macro portfolios with most the hard work to begin the move largely complete: While the Weekly technicals are much clearer: Good luck to those trading EURUSD in 2020 and already in longs or for those waiting patiently on the sidelines for the momentum break to form. As usual thanks so much for keeping your support coming with likes and jumping into the comments!
Long
by ridethepig
1
ridethepig | JPY Market Commentary 2020.01.06On the risk front, JPY demand running out of steam from the initial knee-jerk via Iran tensions and asking for a squeeze. I am tracking 108.6x on the day to add to my shorts. Targets below are located at 107.3x support while stops can be kept comfortably above 108.9x resistance. JPY inflows will continue to come via risk as long as BOJ remains on hold and warrants increasing bearish exposure. After clearing first targets in the initial 2020 swing: Thanks for keeping the likes and comments coming, as usual jump into the conversation with your charts and questions!
Short
by ridethepig
7
ridethepig | Aus 10yr Holding SupportA noteworthy breakout in Aus 10yr with the technical damage already done as bulls remain supportive at the lows. The 38.2% from the impulsive leg, although still yet to be tested will cap any further downside in the coming weeks. Here we are dealing with the capture of the pinned retrace. We have heaped up the size of our attack, but have to face up to the disappointment that said 38.2% cheerfully remains open and unlocked for a further test. The rascal was not locked yet, at the most only 'partially' ...however the issue of how to execute the impulsive nature in the attack is easily solved with the technical break. The risk to reasoning here comes from the final diagram: AUD is becoming supported by the improvements in capex intentions which is picking up faster than expected. Government infrastructure is too important and remains high before expiry in 2021. As long as the consumer re-leverages and we activity in the corp sector improves AUD will present the correct procedure for bulls and with the intention of avoiding a loss in momentum, we must track the breakout in this case the AU 10yr. We can update the thread over the coming Weeks, Months and Quarters so feel free to jump in with your idea generation and we can further the discussion for all. Thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments and etc!
TVC:AU10
by ridethepig
1
ridethepig | Copper Driving China Capital Flows As you can see the strong relationship Copper has with Chinese equities, you will notice what has been the case for these final stages of the economic cycle, metals have been moving miles ahead of equities. We got the floor set in Copper as widely expected all year: Any dips now look competitive: Copper has been allowed to outperform Gold: Bulls need to reclaim the highs in Chinese Equities after the -10% leg: A weaker USD will help reinstate a bullish outlook for Copper, support clearly seen at $2.715, then $2.675 - which I expect to hold. Thanks for keeping the support coming with likes and as usual jump into the comments with your charts and views to open the conversation up for all!
OANDA:XCUUSDLong
by ridethepig
ridethepig | DXY Market Commentary 2019.12.18A timely update to the Dollar chart in time for the NY session, with most of G10 FX trading at the bottom of the short term range markets are preparing for the final flush in USD before killing the year off on the FX board. Lets start by reviewing our long-term map: Here we are tracking the Monthly chart in Dollar from an Elliot Wave perspective; after 15 years of the previous bullish USD cycle we are reaching the end of the road. For those tracking the USD devaluation you will know we are trading the final leg in the 5 wave sequence: On the technical chart the channel support is holding on by a thread: Best of luck all those looking for cheaper entry levels in the Dollar short leg, uncertainty around US growth is not going away. Even if the impeachment expectations fall we should see USD coming under significant pressure. Thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, questions and etc! And as usual jump into the conversations in the comments with your views.
TVC:DXYShort
by ridethepig
Seige WarfareWith a breakout in play on the daily, the formation can advance towards 1.128x and 1.146x extension. The diagram below highlights the attempt shows little defence to transfer the attack on weekly: Given what we have recognised on the technicals around the principled handicap bears have it makes it possible to construct the Macro chart: When our opponent possesses a weakening defence it is worthwhile to push into the advance. In this case, after the Macro and Technical diagrams, we must continue to work the buy side with action towards the highlighted targets. As long as we are allowed to continue the grind higher, reassessment is only necessary below 1.110x. The weakness will appear miles in advance if it is the case and we can update the chart as we go. Here the static weakness of the Dollar can be seen in detail, and in this case bears clearly with the advantage: Remember when a cross shows static weakness, you should aggressively load against them and not be afraid to double the sizes. Now consider the positioning in the next diagram taken from " Apple in the worm " Bulls encouraged Bear's hope that he was headed for a momentum break down, which mean exploitation for the macro swing was not all that difficult. Next came: And now it is important for bulls that the break is tempered into an impulsive swing, the result of which will hold the key to unlocking the targets at 1.128x and 1.146x. Bulls are counting on the strength of the longer term Euro funded currency leg: The correct march forward for bulls here is over the flank, so 1.197x and 1.125x resistance will be key to track for mid-term swings. On the other side, 1.093x and 1.087x will need to be taken in order to demand reassessment of the core bullish view I have constructed over the past three months. Here the win looks forced: ...Thanks all for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, charts and etc.
Long
by ridethepig
7
ridethepig | JPY Market Commentary 2019.12.30In this thesis the USD devaluation is playing the main role for 1H20, risk flows will join the party in 2H20 and as you know by now flows with both fundamentals and technicals behind it can be considered to be on solid foundations. Let us compare the USDJPY with a recently published chart. Then the US capital outflows were expected to do the heavy lifting: In the next diagram let us imagine the channel highs had broken and resistance was cracked - then the flows would be invalidated and closed (the capital would have exhausted). In this case, the highs held as anticipated, there follows large offers from smart money pinging out price and sending loud signals that the move is not weak - how can anything be weak if it cannot be broken? Or imagine this next diagram with a before and after the fact instead. Now there is no question we were still looking for sells and expecting large hands to defend. This is painfully felt by retail after the breakup move... although bulls achieved nothing and could not hold the stops, whereas with those sharp enough to sell above the highs are fading the exuberance and at least in this example we are crippling the opposition backward for a certain length of time enough to eliminate risk: For those wanting to track Gold in the background with Santanomics in full swing: Thanks for keeping the likes and comments coming, as usual jump into the conversation with your charts and questions!
Short
by ridethepig
1
ridethepig | Getting our bearingsHere the bear is condemned to die for the common good, as a diversionary sacrifice. The only question markets are asking is a matter of "when" rather than "if" ... Since the Weekly chart we dissected in September, it would be helpful to start by reviewing the advance: The correct march forward for bulls here over the flank, so 1.197x and 1.125x resistance will be key to track. On the other side, 1.093x and 1.087x will need to be taken in order to demand reassessment of the core bullish view I have constructed over the past three months. I call this excessive generosity! All dips have been bough and those following are locked in with: (i) (ii) After this march towards the border, remember to create an appetite, the bull must start the day with a hearty breakfast of the late and weak sellers going overboard on the Macro side: We are sitting at the loading zone for year-end, for the flows and target-wise I am aiming for 1.16xx in Q420 and beyond 1.20xx into 2021. Invalidation for the trade will come in below the key support below and reassessment of the bullish view will only be necessary if we break through the gap from 2017 French Elections (both are highly unlikely to test now as USD devaluation has already begun via repo crisis). On the USD side, here we are tracking the Monthly chart in Dollar from an Elliot Wave perspective; after 15 years of the previous bullish USD cycle we are reaching the end of the road with the USD devaluation acting as the global reflationary valve: Good luck to those trading EURUSD in 2020 and already in longs or for those waiting patiently on the sidelines for the breakout to form. As usual thanks so much for keeping your support coming with likes and jumping into the comments!
Long
by ridethepig
4