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Ridethepig

ridethepig | Gold Market Commentary 2019.11.26An update to the medium-term Gold chart after clearing Fed. The strong push up factors remain prevalent for Gold; global recessionary risks are back in play, US-China protectionism returning and geopolitical gulfs widening all whilst equity and credit markets reach extended valuations and to put the cherry on top as if this wasn't enough, CB throwing the kitchen sink and exercising strong demand all help keep Gold moving higher. I am tracking the next swing towards 1700 from the current levels; for those who have been following the live flows since earlier in the year, now is a good time to review the flawless maps from October 2018: A textbook breakout which started this new chapter in monetary policy; this brings me onto the second chart. Those with a background in waves will be familiar with the textbook triangle break. An ABCDE was enough to capitulate nascent bears with inflation providing the ebb and flow: In any event, I have widely tracked the Gold move and fundamentals so there is little new to add here with same breaks and impulsive legs to track and same 1700 targets. For the technicals we are sitting at key support levels; this will attract buying interest from the usual suspects who have been working the bid all year long. For reference those on the bid will be able to ride the pig comfortably till 1557.xx while 1453.xx acts as steel support. Losing 1453.xx will take a change in stance on the monetary and risk side (highly unlikely). Thanks for keeping the likes and comments coming.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by ridethepig
4
ridethepig | BTC Market Commentary 2019.11.28BTC - After a big wave of international BTC buying yesterday, the London open has been rather calm - foreign accounts continued their USD selling but in much smaller sizes. On the news front, in the evening there was a headline saying “Bakkt Bitcoin Futures reached a record high” - important for those positioning for Bakkt Bitcoin Options contracts on Dec 9th. Still patiently sitting on hands waiting for the breakout which looks ready to come in the next few sessions: We can comfortably lean on the long-term chart as long as the market remains above the widely mentioned 6200.x Overall, I want to be constructive on BTC given relative hawkishness in comparison to other major cryptos, expecting the bid tone to continue with dips being quickly absorbed by the market. Dips in BTC are likely to be shallow from here as we approach the Options launch. I remain bullish BTC, look for a break of 7800 in BTC$ to unlock the significant targets to the topside. Thanks for keeping the likes and comments coming and as usual jump in with your charts and ideas - Best of luck all those buying or tracking the "Bakkt Floor" !!
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by ridethepig
11
Worm In The USD Apple!! An live example of position execution in EURUSD...Vol has been trading at all time lows with EUR in a 10 tick weekly range. I am looking to fade the extremes. For the execution here we have infamous Worm In The Apple alerts triggering... I am going to give some room for bears to run the stops to the downside again. In usual circumstances it will be a good opportunity for bears to load, however smart money who understand the macro flows in play will ping the lows into year-end. This is for expert traders only, for those new and first timers who haven't played "Worm In The Apple" you can see a live examples of the exact same flows in GBPJPY here: For the macro flows we can comfortably lean on the next wave in EURUSD: Lastly the Long-term chart from 2018: Those tracking the buy side can use this chart to know in advance that 1.0975 will be bid, a lot of demand interest from private clients I work with month and year end positioning in play. Genuinely most of the time the stops will only hold on a solid price driver, the move down I expect to be soft and flimsy allowing transition of ownership. Best of luck all those looking to bid the lows, please keep the support coming with a like and comment your ideas, suggestions and questions.
Long
by ridethepig
3
ridethepig | CHF Market Commentary 2019.11.28USDCHF still caught in the tight range, patience and flexibility important here, range bound 1.002x - 0.984x with both parameters significant now, it looks like being a roller-coaster into year-end. EURCHF very strong support 1.093x - more inclined to buy dips and play from the long side. I still favour upside EURCHF but as people still cutting longs we are unlikely to progress significantly higher in short term. We are right back to our previous entry point and tracking exactly the same flows ... and by now I know all following here will know what to do at key resistance: Remember, we can comfortably lean on the long-term chart: and for those with a background in waves - we got stuck in severe chop within the same sequence: With two sides to the theme we are trading the large macro flows from widespread USD devaluation as a main course dinner, while CHF outflows are likely via "orderly Brexit resolution" which will go on to act as desert. Remember CHF is the lowest yielder in G10 FX, it's been mainly used as a funding currency for carry trades, if risk ticks high in 2020 we are going to have a textbook zig-zag in play. So the initial 'zig' (as seen above) coming from front-loaded USD devaluation into year-end/Jan, followed by decent CHF profit taking in February as those who used CHF to hedge Brexit begin to unwind. The major waterfall looks only to continue with momentum via US election risk and Brexit after the fact impacts (the kind you cannot heal from a political poll in the Times). In any case, thanks all for keeping the likes and support rolling. As usual jump in the comments with your ideas and charts !!
Short
by ridethepig
5
Major Reversal In Play For CNY - A Must Track!!A good time to update the CNY chart with US away from their desks for thanksgiving. Both sides rolling back tariffs means that CNY has unlocked the gates for a retrace towards the key 76.4%. On the monetary side, updates from PBOC who continue sitting on the bid and are unlikely to change stance and keep CNY strong against the crosses, and as long as this remains the case the highs will be capped. Risks to my thesis come from another escalation in protectionism. For Chinese Equities the important and key 2793 is back in play again: Those following previously will remember trading the breakout to the topside, which is now clear was the final exhaustion leg. A textbook one to track for those wanting to dig deeper: For the technicals we are tracking a similar leg in nature to the sell-off in 2017, initial looking to target 6.9xx with extensions as low as 6.6xx and 6.4xx. While to the topside invalidation will come via a break of the highs. Best of luck all those on the CNY bid, jump into the comments with any questions and your views on CNY!
Short
by ridethepig
ridethepig | USDCAD 2020 Macro MapThis chart is for those mapping USDCAD over the coming Quarters; a clean and simple strategy targeting the lows of 1.27xx by mid 2020 before finding somewhat of a bounce back towards the 1.30xx handle by year-end. Main theme behind the flows is coming from dollar devaluation, I would recommend all to follow the Macro Dollar charts I have posted: The reflation theme which is a bi-product of the dollar devaluation will allow CAD to outperform in the immediate term. There are two sides to the currency pairs, rather than CAD strength in this move we are trading USD weakness. A wide range which is already starting to show signs of cracking the downside: Best of luck all those trading USDCAD into year-end with dollar devaluation underway, this is going to be a monster swing with fireworks on both sides.
Short
by ridethepig
4
Gold Institutional Flows A good time to update the Gold chart ahead of FED/ECB combo. Let's start by reviewing the macro and understanding how we got to where we are now. The entire Macro move from 1205 begun with this breakout which we traded live last year: This breakout was the earliest warning sign of the change in chapters for the economic cycle, it was early hints for those sharp enough to realise what was cooking. This was the beginning of the end in the large triangle which was also mapped clearly: A flawless zig-zag breakout forcing bears to capitulate. This triangle ended with the D & E legs, both of which we also traded and added live positions too on both sides: Followed by the momentum breakout which we also traded in CNY terms as well as USD: The final fumes we are trading with this impulsive leg we are currently in will last all the way till 1595.xx, this is the completion of the first targets in the sequence via the coordinated CB action. For those tracking this chart a quick reminder: A textbook case of impulsive and retrace swings with both sides playable. We have been making a killing in Gold and with a "People vs Establishment" narrative picking up pace across the globe this is the perfect ingredient to add to the mix. Here expecting Buckingham Palace to play a major role in the next risk-off domino. Best of luck those positioning for the next cycle in Gold which will come via Fed, while risk will control the inside swings. Thanks for keeping the likes and comments coming, I am blown away by the positive feedback.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by ridethepig
9
ridethepig | AUD Market Commentary 2019.11.21A superb few months for AUD and with the Giant Panda sitting on the bid it remains my most optimistic currency in the G10 space. I am noticing impressive sizes coming in again with markets pricing the Australian recovery theme, largely driven by commodity prices which will help Chinese growth and the export outlook for AUD. Those following in the Telegram will know I have been long AUD since we changed outlooks in June: For the macro charts lets kick off firstly with AUD: The Morrison housing campaign single handedly held consumption growth, probably the most memorable policy in his premiership. AUD recovery will continue into 2020 with fiscal and monetary aligned, the RBA shift away from easing after February means we can comfortably lean on this cross for the coming months and quarters. Short-term flows remain the same: NZD also outperforming vs USD, I have posted my 2020 Macro Map here: Lastly on the USD side, for the long-term chart the infamous "Dollar Focus" : For the more immediate term, I have recently posted a new DXY chart. Key takeaways come from the update in year-end target to a 96 handle: Here looking to continue trading the buy side in AUD, targeting 0.70 for Dec makes sense to me. Keep the likes and feedback coming if these strategy ideas are helping. Good luck!
Long
by ridethepig
2
Banks vs Utilities Holding UpUpdates coming from the previous "Banks Look Cheap vs Utilities" chart. For those who don't remember here are the flows we have been tracking: Now it is clear US 10-year Yields are starting to withdraw again, although this time Banks vs Utilities are less affected. I have been talking with clients recently around this space and there is broadly no concern. Valuations in Banks remain supportive and as long as the trend remains in tact there is little to concern, however as we enter into a weaker than expected end of year outlook for US Equities I am updating the Outlook: Outlooks changed from Buy to Neutral, any weakness in banks is actionable in my opinion. As always keep the comments and questions coming, please like if the ideas are helping and any feedback is welcomed! Thanks
AMEX:KBE
by ridethepig
ridethepig | BRLMXN 2020 Macro MapA timely update to my Latam charts as we approach year-end. The bullish BRL theme I have maintained all year long is starting to attract a lot of interest with the idiosyncratic pension reform. Macro data in Brazil is showing signs of finding a floor and BCB have confirmed the end of the easing cycle: Those with more conservative hands looking to ride this for the long term can comfortably lean on BRL with carry exposure now capped. MXN is showing no signs of improvement and remains as uncertain as ever, whenever I talk to clients on the topic they speak of concerns around Mexico risk and the dovish Banxico weighing on the MXN carry. If you ask me we are going to see a major flop in policy from Banxico and with Brazil set to recover on all fronts it remains a strategic long in all my LATAM portfolios. This is not a quick 50-100 pip trade where we are shooting blanks hoping one lands, rather this is trading a major macro flow with +11% upside. Highly recommend all to find a way to find a way to benefit from these flows, the only downside is coming from growth momentum in Brazil fading (unlikely) and overshoots in Mexico (also highly unlikely). Good luck those on the buy side.
Long
by ridethepig
ridethepig | Sell GBPJPYPound continues to be hijacked by politics in “election mode” with GBP trading higher on the Conservatives lead in weekend opinion polls. Overshooting the resistance here is cascading soft stops although momentum and sizes are not impressive and here I look to fade the highs and trade back to the inside during the election campaign and into the new Brexit deadline. For the entry positioning method we are using the same strategy in GBPJPY as widely seen here: The map from an Elliot perspective has been a very clear path forward in GBPJPY. Same flows we have been tracking since the beginning of the year: The debate tomorrow between Johnson and Corbyn will trigger some profit taking from GBP bulls as we get ever close to the Brexit deadline. There has been a tremendous amount of conjecture around UK assets to date, it is important to remember the "fact" leg in Brexit (which is what will cause the economic damage via reduced market access) has yet to take place and markets are quick to forget. In any case, thanks for keeping the likes and comments rolling, feel free to dive in with your charts or ideas on GBPJPY and open the conversation for all.
Short
by ridethepig
2
USDCNH correction over, trend resumes Here we are coming to the end of the corrective wave within the underlying bull trend. The time has come to start getting to work on the top-side here again, this is a move we have been tracking for some months (see attached). We are going to be exploring the speed limit of the dollar over the next few months so buckle up and get ready for some very large moves across FX . Like the rest of the USD board, markets have been corrective and now is the time to re-establish upside exposure. Initial targets for the weekly move come in at 6.97 . There is scope to continue as far as 7.10 and 7.20. Best of luck those who are navigating around the US-China trade flows.
Long
by ridethepig
Meaningful low set?On the technical side the minimum targets for a Vth wave flattening trend that started since 2011 have been met. This completed sequence show's there is plenty of room to steepen over the coming Quarters. So far we have seen wave A and B of an incomplete ABC. Well done all those who are riding the 'C' leg with us. Best of luck to those who are positioned for the next two levels of interest at 116/117. The biggest picture would suggest there is even more upside over time.
ULong
by ridethepig
Support Cracked Wide Open on the US 10YHere we are witnessing the minimum target from a ABC perspective since the January highs at 2.799%. This sequence from here on should be viewed as corrective and will be a shallow retrace in the broader trend. There is little support here so the key levels to watch in play remain 2.286%. We may see some choppy waters here, however, the potential to retrace as low as 2.088% remains live. Best of luck all those positioning for the week.
TVC:US10YShort
by ridethepig
Cable morning chart updateAfter clearing our first targets on the test of 1.310 area prices have bounced and we are witnessing some nice profit taking. Here we can be clear, a decline through the most recent lows will open up the leg for a deeper setback towards 1.28 and 1.24. The new season of the Brexit drama is kickstarting next week, the underlying economic remain the same and here expecting a Hard Brexit as the final outcome. Technically speaking for those looking to trade the entire swing, a decline through 1.24 will open up a test of the key support from the BoE at 1.21. Lets see how it goes.
Short
by ridethepig
Cable soft ahead of NFPDollar catching a strong bid after yesterday's ECB. A very dovish Draghi sending shockwaves across financial markets, capital flight to the dollar continues via default as the only game in town. 1.31 was the level to track for the breakdown this week, yesterday we officially broke and now 1.24 is in the scope. For today's NFP we are expecting an inline report, a solid 185k payrolls report with a slight uptick in wages. Best of luck those already short, we are looking for the home-run here.
Short
by ridethepig
No time to pause...The EU offering a very short unconditional extension of the Brexit deadline as expected with the possibility of an extension till 22nd May if the House of Commons pass the WA before that. If the House of Commons rejects PM MAY’s deal, the UK will either leave on 12th April or need to come up with an alternative way forward for the EU Council to consider (participation in European May elections etc). As things stand a long extension seems more likely than the deal passing as the HoC by majority voted to take no deal Brexit off the table, watching very closely the responses in British politics for any changing of sides as we get closer to the final whistle. On the Central Bank front yesterday we had a muted BOE as expected via political uncertainties. Best of luck all shorts
Short
by ridethepig
2
"Doves" it even matter?A "dovish" surprise from the Fed yesterday ...but does it really matter? Well the removal of 2019 hikes is worth highlighting because it does not fully support the story we are being told from macro data meaning the bar is set high for any further hikes.History tells us it’s very unusual for the Fed to pause for a long time in hiking cycles before resuming meaning this is likely the end of hikes in the cycle. In Brexitland, PM May playing politics with a " Queens Gambit "…by asking for the short-extension till the end of June she is trying to force MPs hands to vote for her deal. Options from the EU are still either for (short) Mid-May or (long) lasting into 2020. The risk scenario which will send Pound flying down across the FX board is that the EU reject an extension. Expecting a muted BOE today, no hikes with the MPC judging further tightening warranted over the forecast horizon... same old story till we clear the political mess. For those who are positioned from the previous ideas in GBPUSD, GBPJPY, GBPNZD and EURGBP it's time to trail stops and sit tight, markets are pricing a higher risk of a no deal Brexit again. Same targets for the drama, for those following I will be covering the BOE live in RTP ... good luck guys.
Short
by ridethepig
Whilst the cat is away (inflation)... the mouse can play What is the trade here? We are outguessing the end of a pullback within a pullback ... there is another leg down within this 4th wave in the sequence, with heavy resistance coming into play at 1325 the downside is wide open. We have a window of opportunity with inflation softening and risk fading via Mueller to complete a pullback as far as 1255/1260..Tracking very carefully the coming sessions in Gold. Thanks for all the support with likes and comments etc.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by ridethepig
8