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Ridethepig

EURUSD NFP FlowHere we are tracking the flow in EURUSD for jobs day. My models forecast 185k on the payrolls with a slight uptick in earnings to 3.3%y/y. The flight to dollar will continue, there is nowhere else to park. A weak number will inflate the problems in the global economy, a strong number will mean markets have to price in another move from the Fed via inflation. Resistance will come in at 1.124 whilst to the downside there is little to see till 1.09. Best of luck those in the markets for NFP.
Short
by ridethepig
2
Time to start pricing Q3 hikesBy now you get the point, expecting dollar strength to enter into play over the coming sessions. Keeping it simple in a technical sense with stops above the highs and initial targets at the low of the range. There are extensions here as low as 1.09 (I will be posting a zoomed out daily chart on EURUSD) for the move so be prepared to close partial positions rather than all to make the most of this leg. To put it simply we are betting on the lows for the next 2 quarters in dollar being set already across most majors.
Short
by ridethepig
Birds Eye View of GBPCADHere we are sitting at the top of the channel after the huge miss in CAD data. This move will be from the Pound side, as Brexit becomes ever closer and thus the pain to the UK economy. The soft data in Canada is showing no signs of reversing however I am retaining the bullish CAD view as the underpricing of a hawkish BoC. Capacity constraints and labour market tightness will lead to further hikes. Good news from the US-China trade front will help this pair too via Oil and risk sentiment stabilising. Best of luck guys...Please remember to like and comment to open the discussion.
Short
by ridethepig
2
EURUSD Roadmap for 1.09After a very bearish end to the week for EURUSD I am updating the Daily chart with our latest targets at 1.0905. Timing wise we are positioned for ECB which is expected very dovish as Europe is struggling on many fronts... => EZ growth subdued in Q418 and expected to remain low for Q119; Italy already in technical recession whilst Germany touching cloth. => Industrial production fell in Q4 pushing the expected technical recession to the front seat. => Bottlenecks in the car industry on the supply side => Household spending falling with consumer confidence On the ECB side there is no hikes expected this year or next, a view they do not seem to be pushing back against. Inflation pressures are muted and the turn in oil will provide more relief to firms. Remember we have more TLTROs coming next week. From the technical angle, we are still trading a retrace leg in this uptrend from the Feb 2018 highs meaning the odds of parity and below are unexpected and I will be looking for longs towards the end of Q2 / early Q3. I have attached the monthly and weekly EURUSD and DXY charts below which explain this in more depth. Feel free to open the macro discussion here for the main event next week!
Short
by ridethepig
5
Bears (almost) ready to attack again... getting ready to swingAfter the flash crash we have continued to trade within a wide range. An important and very significant point is the recent euro strength after a dovish ECB is corrective following the completion of a large bearish triangle pattern. Support can be found at 124 and then 123.40. Below here would imply another top is in and add weight to the view that risk is entering back into the room. We are eyeballing a move eventually towards 122.75 which is the 38.2% retracement (not marked on the chart) of this most recent correction. To the upside, for those who believe in the immediate Euro bull story (not our view) we can see resistance at 124.6 and 125.10. Both of which are necessary to be taken in order to suggest a continuation pattern and imply a deeper recovery. Summarising, the range 125.10 - 123.40 is crystal clear and we see an opportunity in selling this correction as we believe there is still further downside to come in Europe before bulls come in towards the end of 2019. Best of luck to all those in positions here.
Short
by ridethepig
1
BRLMXN has plenty of upside...Here we have a very wide ABC in play with the C leg finishing at 7.25 - 7.28. From a technical perspective, the market has presented a flawless 5 wave impulsive move with a three wave retracement. Those who are betting on the upside will be coming in here at the 38.2% level at 5.09; and we can expect a continuation. There is scope here for as high as 7.25-7.28... here actively working a lot on the buy side in Brazil. Best of luck, hope this helps and lets see how it goes.
Long
by ridethepig
3
BRLJPY ready to move higherHere we can see the end of a 5 wave pattern to the downside and the AB leg of the ABC correction complete. So what does this mean? Well we have still yet to put C in place, so simply we are targeting 35.75 for this corrective process. It's worth engaging in further topside exposure, especially if you are a believer of the bearish Yen story. Best of luck those who like to play EM, we are in for large moves this year on the EM FX board. Please remember to like and comment, thanks!
Long
by ridethepig
USDCOP Macro Flows Towards 3650Risk premium is low once more in EM and we have long term targets spotted at 3650 here. => The rise since April is now clearly impulsive and the last and final levels in play now for this 5th wave is 3650. Pullbacks should only be bought, as mentioned in the previous idea (see attached) and now that we have our pullback..you know what to do. To put simply, a Q3 hike is underpriced and markets will start trading increased odds of a move from the Fed later this year. It's time to start building positions on the buy-side in dollar for the next few months. Good luck, I know not many are trading EM so feel free to PM or open the discussion below. Thanks
Long
by ridethepig
US10s finding support?Market is currently around a number of support levels ranging from 2.796% and 2.514% => This area is going to be very difficult to break because it also includes the uptrend which started from July 2016. Here it is worth pointing out that the market has seen the leg lower via the ABC count. Consildation has kicked in for a lengthy period of time and we are set to begin trading more dollar strength. Watch for signs of a base forming here, the setup weakens below 2.51%. Thanks and good luck
TVC:US10YLong
by ridethepig
Russell leading the consolidation pack?A quick update on the count for those following the index. Nasdaq, S&P and Dow all starting to see some decent profit taking as we enter into resistance again. Here watching the Russell as there's a good chance the market has completed a 5 wave impulse move from the 16 lows. The correction if the above assumption is right, means that this ABC retracement may have completed after we touched 1300 and we are now entering into a multi-month consolidation period. This will be a wide range, however, with plenty of opportunities on both sides of the pig. Thanks all
TVC:RUT
by ridethepig
Leg D completed on the Weekly... expecting bears to come in hereThose who have been following our commentary on Gold will have known 1180-1220 was our initial entry for longs when the position was anti-consensus. Once it started working we released the idea of longs towards 1345 and finally we are here after 14 weeks. Expecting a large retrace here as bulls unwind their positions and book profits, we have an opportunity to ride this retrace leg to the downside. Inflation is starting to edge down, the only card we need to be aware of is risk. For those tracking the macro side, via inflation 1225 is the only level in play for bears on this final leg E. There is plenty of room below current levels and we see great value in shorts here. Best of luck to those trading live, please remember to like and comment and keep the support coming. Thanks
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by ridethepig
Selling Cable with incoming Dollar strength A simple trade here from a technical sense as market has overpriced the odds of Brexit being good for the economy. We are selling the highs in Cable one more time. A departure from the EU is sending this currency one way, and one way only. On the USD side there is a lot of good news coming back in on the macro front and the FED will be questioned on hikes sooner or later. Expecting a move in Q3 so it's time to start pricing in more hikes on the dollar side and bad news on the UK side. Good luck everyone in this live
Short
by ridethepig
3
Remaining Nimble in AUDUSD and selling the closeThere are a few opportunities which we have discussed privately on AUD and why it is a good time to be getting long on AUD crosses (namely AUDCAD or AUDJPY). Here I am nervous over USD strength as we begin pricing in a Q3 hike there so with Gold moving down in an impulse move (see attached ideas for more colour on that topic) the short here seems reasonable. Well if we dig deeper on the RBA side, I strongly disagree with the doves that any cuts are around the corner. Lowe does not seem like a man who is desperate to move. The pause globally in central banks has helped equities but markets will test the limits again very soon. A test of the lows by default here seems only a matter of time, I expect a move like this in nature. Best of luck to those who are positioning for the sell-side next week for this 5th and final wave down to the lows.
Short
by ridethepig
EURUSD bears in control Here expecting EURUSD to break down from its four-month range to the downside over the coming hours. All of the Euro push up factors (growth expectations, improved politics etc) have all left the picture and now we are back to the same story before the rally towards 1.25. Europe, particularly on a risk adjusted basis has worsened. Poor growth and inflation are pushing back any expectations of a hike from the ECB, while European equities continue to underperform the US. This is not to say I expect a test of parity, rather that there is significant downside risk at a time when both actual and expected return differentials have moved sharply in favour of the US in a flight to quality (whatever that means). From a technical perspective, a test of the 61.8% fibonacci retracement from December 2016 lows to early 2018 highs seems impossible to avoid now and as a result we are entering short ahead of the Fed minutes. Wishing all those trading this one in live the best of luck, please continue to keep your support coming in with a like and comment. Thanks
Short
by ridethepig
2
GBPJPY time to start working the sell-sideA very quick idea update here after a conversation with 'ikovachky' in the Forex chat room. We are approaching the end of the road with Brexit and timing wise it is finally time to get to work on selling the currency again. The Pound is only going one way with a Hard Brexit and if you are a believer in the bearish UK story, then you know exactly what to do here. From a rates perspective, the UK has seen 5 months of very disappointing data. Gilt yields are likely to remain capped for the near-term, which will ease the immediate pressure on hikes and allow the MPC till the second half of 2019 before being forced to move. On inflation, energy has kept CPI below target of late however this will rise firmly above the 2.0% target from April via sharp upticks in air fares, and utilities. A tight labour market is keeping wages held up whilst productivity recovery is nowhere to be seen. This will keep labour costs rising. Best of luck if you are on the sell-side in Sterling, this has setup the macro trade of the year.
Short
by ridethepig
3
Building longs as we approach the 76.4% retracement in EURGBP...=> The heavy selling we have seen here as a result of the 'relief rally' in sterling after expectations of a second referendum entered the picture. This fairy tale is starting to exit the stage via the fire exit and we are heading back to reality. => This means that the odds of a no-deal Brexit outcome are going to once again take the spotlight and we are set for a bloodbath in sterling. => Here we can see EURGBP approaching the 76.4% retracement of the entire 2017 rally after breaking out the channel we made in 2018. => In our books we see this as a great buying opportunity for the cross as the Euro is offering great value for those in the UK. => The risk to our idea is if we break-down lower and close below this will imply that we are setting a more meaningful medium term top.
Long
by ridethepig
2