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Ridethepig

Homerun for BTC!!📌 ridethepig | Homerun for BTC Here the choice is between another sweep and marking a bottom. The first results in a discovered temporary pullback which allows early buyers to start getting excited... but the second moves involves a slingshot, automatically through the pivot. A quick review of the initial charts we have been tracking ↳ This was the well known position. A yearly break unlocked $42,000 . Double check the chart, it was a purely technical map. It is terribly accurate and compelling; even the most unaware buyers have had a long time to take profits. After buyers cleared this target we closed the chapter and started to look for the retracement. 1️⃣ In the initial chart played some weeks ago, things came down to the following interesting ABC position ↳ Buyers last move was of course to clear on the exhaustive nature and failure to mark a new high. The swing ended and control as I pointed out switch sides. 2️⃣ The following sessions played out as expected, the imaginative sellers started to enter making the position look a really natural move ↳ The somewhat theatrical looking chart by sellers - has worked! Buyers no longer wish to refute and are running to the hills... sellers got the upper hand. The correct play now is to manage our risk and stops accordingly. 3️⃣ The congestion entered into play and I gave a simultaneous display on how to neatly mange the trail ↳ Buyers did in fact try the zig-zag within a zig-zag within a zag... but was not enough and sellers with a strong attack took out support and forced the bid further into retreat. 4️⃣ So the bottom forming of the swing, or the sweep towards fresh lows and to complete the pending Jan 4th test we have been tracking since day one? ↳ The idea of scaling a position Before you tackle what follows, you should quickly check that you are well versed in the concerning flows and swing. If not refresh your ideas on these, because these chapters will be important for the correct understanding of what follows. The flow is as follows, after the sharp drop in ((v)) the possibility of a pullback towards $32/$33,000 is on the cards before a final hammer back to re-test the main target at $28/27,000. I do not believe the energy sellers have shown can suddenly disappear just because of that retrace. No, it must still be on the menu, even if in some modified formation. A breach above our new pivot level at $34,200 will block the movement for sellers and threaten the sweep of any remaining trail stops from above. In other words, the pivot is our last blockade as sellers. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback and charts coming 👍 or 👎
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by ridethepig
18
ridethepig | Bitcoin Finally Breaking Down📌 ridethepig | Bitcoin Finally Breaking Down The goal of this swing as you all know by now is to test $28.000/$27,000 and show a real seizure of control from sellers. After another -8% today, it's clear in the ST sellers are doing their duty as we approach the first targets. The defence here is very feeble, fresh weakness should be considered indirect fruits of our operations! We have to review the diagrams to understand our opposition: The ABC retrace was clearly running out of steam, pressure on buyers to take back $40,000 was too great and they started coughing. Sharp speculators began profit taking while the unaware kept loading at the said ceiling. Any remaining buyers would do better at giving up the soft floor here and reloading lower as we are now falling flat on the concrete. The pullback from here should be shallow and strongly protected from sellers in my opinion. The decision to stay remain short is natural and we should be able to continue exploiting the late buyers. We should pay particular attention if we break down as we will see $28,000/$27,000 main targets very quickly. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by ridethepig
29
ridethepig | Euro for ECB📌 ridethepig | Euro for ECB In some chart annotations, we have already covered the need for a pullback yesterday and to either use that to build the position centrally or lines aimed at mapping the flow for those covering on the pullback. The main point was to gain momentum for the slingshot after the 1.207x bids held. > Global inflation is starting to show signs of creeping higher ( see the explanation ) so expecting Lagarde to be slightly bullish EUR on inflation, neutral on growth, no changes in rates and the usual 'watching the currency closely'. The significance on the technical side is that buyers have situated themselves comfortably since Monday, as a basis for further operations, lies beyond all possible doubt. This is subtle and illustrates the deep relationship between the ECB and the dollar flank. A breach above the 1.216x highs now into sellers camp will trigger the capitulation towards our first target, play the momentum gambit when the opportunity arises. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
12
ridethepig | BTC Market Commentary 20.01.2021📌 ridethepig | BTC Market Commentary 20.01.2021 In this position (from the $39,000) highs it's time to protect our portfolio as we try a third time to get the breakdown. This has happened in drastic fashion and a great live example of good position management. The pullback came surprisingly close to our trail, before the old shorts started cheering again at the thought of another fight! Now sellers have to simply win the lows to complete ((iii)) which will be enough for us to trail our stops from (ii) to ((ii)) ...the over protecting will ensure we are strategic and decrease our radius of risk. Just one more diagram (since we are tracking the MT chart) in all its forms we will need a whole new thread dedicated to the final wave in this impulse once we complete our 4th wave retrace. I hope all is clear... if not feel free to shoot a message below or via DM.... To put simply, after (iv) is complete we can update the Weekly and Monthly charts. Why? Because the pullback here is 🔑 to the slingshot that we are tracking later in the year. And in fact, after a test of $28,000/$27,000 a lot of the retailers will be cleansed and allow the remaining warriors an excellent chance for positioning. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by ridethepig
23
ridethepig | AUDNZD Market Commentary 20.01.2021📌 ridethepig | AUDNZD Market Commentary 20.01.2021 This chart illustrates the remaining crumbs in AUDNZD which is worth further study. The position from the previous diagrams continues and we are set for taking the next main target at 1.089x/1.090x. Now, buyers have overcome their difficulties in development, the base is optimally protected from AUD inflows via the commodity side. Happy to continue holding AUD against the bird, and is a nice way to express a dovish view on NZD. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
1
ridethepig | Oil for the Yearly Close📌 Oil for the Yearly Close Making the rounds...this time onto Oil and we are going to learn from it by firstly tracking our previous 'before' and 'after' the 2020 fact charts to see how the birth took place. A single glance at the Monthly and Daily is sufficient, from mapping our MT and LT charts, our ancestors, we are able to workout the directional flows in the short-term. This point of view, the crux of which can be proven ultimately by understanding which side occupies the useful pivot. In short, the 63/64 levels which we were essentially tracking as our outpost is the same strong resistance that we are heading back too from the possible thrust. The strong resistance The strength of this slingshot up lies in the fat that supply shortages are coming into play across the commodity side, OPEC will remain at the mercy to the problematic lockdowns which will continue into 2021 and most likely beyond. This is not an easy one to trade if you are not already holding longs, the test of 51 and 65 look guaranteed as only a matter of time. I would like to anticipate another test of 🔑 support at 33.7x (low chances right now) which would be an appropriate level to once again add longs in cheaper levels should we see it. Thanks as usual for keeping the feed back coming 👍 or 👎
TVC:USOILLong
by ridethepig
5
ridethepig | Gold Market Commentary 19.01.2021📌 ridethepig | Gold Market Commentary 19.01.2021 A basing formation with Gold, which does not require to create a 'double bottom' pattern, is undergoing a direction change. It advanced as far as our $1,960 target and has found cramps. Finally, there is the opportunity for a breakthrough. As an example of this, let us turn to the well know diagram ' Gold finding a bottom ': The defence was carried out: the sharp speculators do not want to lose $1,800/$1,803 and they are once again fighting for their stand. So, lets follow the flows again here as it seems to be indicated and clear for all to play. This excellent move higher can also be played in Silver, the lows are clearly holding with more ease and this ideal will turn into the said reality. Yellen hearing today corresponds to the start of these moves, and as @MEGALO1 points out the rally towards fresh highs seems indicated. Here I would like to point out that initial targets of $1,960, $2,015 and $2,075 are in the strategic plan while a breach below the lows will invalidate the setup; you can see why in the previous charts we managed to form a solid base and spot a subtle resource. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by ridethepig
6
ridethepig | Teeing Off in Tesla📌 Play continues with the next hole ... as in the previous ( with GBPUSD ) we will keep it to three main targets initially. Now in Tesla's case, buyers are having to overcome some difficulties in development; the highs are optimally set with an island reversal, and so the tables can be turned. Timing wise this hole could not be better placed as sentiment looks set to start an attack against Tesla which has been cramped from exhaustion after all the good news (whatever that means). .... TSLA @ 800 What is in play ? ... using TSLA as a barometer for the whole US equity board. If Tesla loses the current structural support it will move the whole board as collateral. More gridlock on the other hand will leave us in a continuation till FED march. For this swing, a good, perhaps better, target for 'par' is 500 (a whopping -37% drive). The extensions below at 460 and 400 are open for our 'birdie' and 'eagles'. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by ridethepig
35
ridethepig | EUR Market Commentary 18.01.2021📌 ridethepig | EUR Market Commentary 18.01.2021 Here to kick the week off with the first moves we have buyers choosing to defend the 1.207x bids, protecting the support level and relieving the channel structure of this duty so that it can become a bit more appealing possibly for a slingshot. The next moves higher in EURUSD can be the start of a swing that cracks the 2018 highs. Yearly Eurobonds Sellers have missed the proper moment to get in contact with the stops below the support. If the position were with Pound, on the other hand, the win for buyers would be much more difficult, whereas now euro follows on its own logically defined map. UK is at the heart of the matter of fundamental impacts around Brexit, the euro will be considered a stepping stone for UK outflows as sharp speculators and large macro hands evacuate through the flanks to avoid getting caught up with BOE -ve rates. To the topside 1.212x remains a 🔑 pivot level with initial targets found above at 1.222x and 1.230x while invalidation comes from a sustained breach below support. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
12
ridethepig | Teeing Off in GBPUSD📌 ridethepig | Teeing Off in GBPUSD After an interesting Asian session the unlikely looking manoeuvre is preparing to unfold. Why? Because sharp speculators are already beginning to outguess the dovish BOE and directionally are flooding back to USD. A very similar setup to the one we traded in the middle of December flows: Large macro players have been spotted on the offer, a few moves later and we can be back at 1.313x in little time. Things that develop thereafter will be interesting, for now let's play the initial leg down trapping the unaware buyers who are protecting GBP. Swing the club, and don't mess it up! Thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Short
by ridethepig
18
ridethepig | BTC Flirting to Break Lower📌 ridethepig | BTC Flirting to Break Lower Here buyers are giving up the highs as expected and opening up a retracement back towards +/- $27,000 which will put pressure on the late lagging retailers. A more solid floor can be formed below the 4th Jan lows, if sellers can hold below $40,000 for the weekend then best is to cover. Showing a lack of momentum! Why not ride some profit taking, possibly followed by a very typical BTFD below the lows. But if sellers hold the breakdown with a strong counter then they threaten to immediately complete the major swing down: The outpost here is not a surprise to anyone who has been following the MT and LT chapters. The enormous breakout on the log chart carried such significance and explains why the sellers originally went fleeing! Worth considering this move is coming to an end, continuation is unfavourable without a pullback, since the inventory is now hanging low we can witness a slippery slope if sentiment turns negative for the coming weeks. As usual, thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by ridethepig
23
It's Different This Time... Right...📌 Endgame in the economic cycle and illustrating a painful recession Yields had the opportunity to move and successfully played the 'elastic band' rejection from the inversion in 2019, which despite the length of the global CB combination, can be expressed in no other terms than reckless. FED was obviously aiming for the ideal position (the frontal defence from Fiscal this time around) which is a well known counter when the issue comes from private debt, however they were forced to 'bend the knee'. Things proceed as follows: 1️⃣ Every other time this happened it ended badly for the global economy via recession. ✅ 2️⃣ A Fed that lags and finances the Whitehouse will only add fuel to the flames... "it's different this time". ✅ 3️⃣ The longer the delay in USD devaluation from Fed, the worst the blow is going to be in Equity markets. Assuming USD does not devalue materially into 2020 its repo will grow and continue expanding the balance sheet, one way or another eventually this is going to look like Fed has been financing the WhiteHouse and then the game is up. 👈 'we are currently here' The Whitehouse has decided to follow hyperinflation, Dem voters were naive in this sense and thought they could hold rates lower forever without any consequences. Now we must waste more time pursuing their distant dream that taxation is a solution. Wishful thinking if you ask me... the kind of overdrafts these governments have run up are several multiples beyond even Piketty's theoretical tax base. This ending of a cycle is a pragmatic demonstration of the lust to keep 'putting it on the card' and leaving private debt problems to future generations because of time being finite. Finally a notion which carries its own duties: In a debt crisis, as Japan have known for some 30 years a) you do not want an appreciating currency as the cost of servicing those debts will skyrocket in real terms and b) remain nimble...(get a peloton if necessary). Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Editors' picks
TVC:US05YLong
by ridethepig
127
ridethepig | BTC Market Commentary 14.01.2021📌 Bitcoin Market Commentary 14.01.2021 It is sellers turn to move, we are hitting the main target for this third wave as widely expected since before the yearly close. The lows are clearly still mobile and the leg lower should now be safe to play. After much thought, and completely recognising stepping against the train, this should be a decision for experienced speculators only . When faced with the choice of protecting the retracement swing and continuation towards and impulsive leg (in this case it will be our invalidation at $42,800), is important in the sense that we are at a decision point. Sellers are looking to take advantage of the very contemplative buyers who will be late to react and before they know it we will be $10,000 lower. The pullback is completely healthy, a 5-3-5 typical corrective pattern will mean business as usual (BTFD) later in the year. For now, the main target belongs to $27,600 lows. As usual thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by ridethepig
5
ridethepig | KOSPI for the Yearly Close📌 The beauty of Korea is revealing itself right on time... the breakout is difficult to maintain as can be seen on the yearly close, the slingshot which turned out to a correct play for buyers has unlocked the potential for a major rally in 2021. Capital has its eyes on Korea (and a few others) for the advantage in its currency (KRW) and economic mobility across the continent. For different reasons to India, but with well placed influence, Korea has the chance to really outperform in the next decade. EM Equities and currencies are going to provide a lot of opportunities for 2020: With that recognition behind us, I am going to be spending a lot more time in Asia for this chapter in the economic cycle. From 2020 - 2030 we are going to see a the great migration of capital from West to East. The ability for KOSPI to break 2,600 is showing how flexible the bid really is into the year close. We also have to take note of the differentiation of outside candles on the yearly: Here deploying capital to Korea for a strong move in 2021, though it involves some understanding of the relevant sectors (we will dig deeper into some single stock opportunities and sectors later in the month so start to prepare your charts). Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
KRX:KOSPILong
by ridethepig
ridethepig | Rate Differentials 📍 A quick update here on the elements of EUR and USD Ending the 'C' part in the swing down has been a hard struggle and with such a problem a surprising retreat is expected. Buyers are threatening to bottle up their opponent. A pullback in EURUSD towards 1.15/1.14 will make things a lot easier: Inflation is demanding a return, after sufficient preparation, watch out on the battlefield (see my explanation in the recession strategy). The other theoretically plan of attack is a flank attack in USD which must be nipped in the bud via FED but they will lag behind now. Real money understands the point behind this move. Firstly, the test of 1.70 is starting to be considered from the point of view that the current block is settled to the topside. As usual thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
TVC:US10YLong
by ridethepig
6
ridethepig | BTC for the Yearly Close📌 @ridethepig XBT Market Commentary 19.12.2020 So we have the following picture; the prince slowly approaching his city after slaying the dragon, rescuing the princess and conquering the treasure. All the ministers and advisers are wanting to meet for a hearty breakfast and consider the correct way to balance the rewards. This picture is intended to convey how slowly this is happening despite how fast and decisive it seems at the time. Only the most important characters are present during the impulsive waves: The next moves in BTC are going to get very interesting for trading, a fresh break is not simply to create more space but also via a liquidity trap. So you must take the following to heart; try everything you can to not marry the position for its own sake but also not deny that BTC has rightfully earned its place in the sun! The answer will come from the yearly close. Holding the break up will not be simply something to play with. Here looking for $31,800; $42,600 and $53,400 as magical line targets above for 2021 before a pullback at some point into 2022 as governments become more aggressive. The main blind spots to the BTC thesis come from the political side, for now like hero from the fairy tale; head off happily.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by ridethepig
6
ridethepig | Gold Market Commentary 04.01.2021📌 @ridethepig Gold Market Commentary 04.01.2021 This is illustrating the notion of 'total mobility', and also touched on a problem which we have not discussed in depth yet, trailing stops. Here... we can quickly review the text book flows, firstly when you think of development and secondly because Buyers are threatening to become very strong now in the open areas! So a quick recap is urgently required: An innovative concept. Buyers can avoid the loss of their development, and it can lead towards the home-run. Worth considering $1,960 as a good and healthy area to do some business. We can now see the slippery risk slope as we enter into a 🔑 week on the elections front. Pence is now the only force to hamper this advance. Sellers are clearly not happy with the loss of resistance and will seek compensation in a dangerous fashion. They should put up some fight at $1,960 before buyers threaten the break towards fresh all time highs with dollar devaluation to put the icing on top. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by ridethepig
26
ridethepig | VIX for the Yearly Close📌 @ridethepig VIX Market Commentary 18.12.2020 A good time to update the VIX chart for the traditional Quad witching flows....After an exchange in Q1 2020 with VIX exploding to the topside as widely expected for all those following, there is now what follows, an opportunity for a panic cycle next week (21st December) followed by another window in January for the extraction. A weaker sell side has allowed the zig zag advance, buyers are threatening to decisively break the highs once more unlocking an execution at 85 for another board clear. The position in my books is finally won by buyers, the ending will be instructive of US equities in particular. The position also has a chance of drawing at 20.0x support. While the same 85 targets (the position is an important link to the GA run off in Jan), taking the highs means we must chase and play from the centre. Buyers will wish to prove that 'resistance' is hanging by a thread, it might work. Thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
CBOE:VIXLong
by ridethepig
5
ridethepig | Best of 2020A Year in review...there is definitely something to be learned from reviewing old charts. The foundations of the year were laid in Q419/Q120 which became giant pivots in the flow. It would be wrong to talk about the new dogmas without ✅ the old ones. So,lets get straight in... 📌 Best of G10 FX... GBPUSD from 1.35-> 1.15 EURUSD from 1.09 -> 1.20 📌 Best of EM FX... USDTRY completing the +30% swing towards 7.8 📌 Best of Volatility... VIX +600% explosion from 12 towards 85 📌 Best of Commodities... The collapse in Oil 📌 Best of Equities... DAX annihilation 📌 Best of Yields... Tick lows in NZ10Y 📌 Best of Macro... The end of an economic cycle 📌 Best of Crypto... BTC breaking out on the log chart 📌 Blunder of the year... Covering $PTON too quickly In any case.... Wishing all a very happy, healthy and prosperous New Year... @ridethepig will be staying up late tonight to make sure we leave 2020 behind.
by ridethepig
28
ridethepig | Gold breaking out📌 @ridethepig Gold Market Commentary 21.12.2020 Floor and support building We have just played a perfectly timed ABC sequence towards $1,800 with all the wanderlust to the sellers who were so full of hope. But there are sometimes subtle differences between a pullback to gather energy (for the next leg up) and a full blown retracement. There may be all sorts of risk storming the macro tale, but no one seems to be paying attention to the economy catching the sniffles. To protect ourselves against the dangers of protectionism and the wandering printer, we should always think about having some exposure to Gold. The timing of which is what defines us as traders. In this position, the 5th wave in an impulsive sequence towards the topside is an obvious play. Being able to move from the loading zone was our plan as we exposed levels where sellers would want to take profits and buyers would enter in a series of orders. The correct play is continue adding longs, take shelter in the shiny metal until risk dare not come out once more. Here still eyeballing $1,960 for the yearly close and $2,075 for January. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by ridethepig
9
ridethepig | GBP Market Commentary 18.12.2020📌 @ridethepig G10 FX Market Commentary 18.12.2020 Another early breakfast for Pound sellers, brexit occupies the sentiment throne and optimism has clearly vacated! Pound now has its eye on the breakdown as expected since yesterday and even a wishy washy deal will be a sell in the short-term. Johnson and VDL taking it to the wires will turn out to be the obstruction for another move lower will be difficult to defend. With 1.360x holding in fine style and shorts starting to enter with volume, quite heart-rendering.... Stay short GBPUSD looking for1.346x, 1.328x and 1.313x with invalidation above 1.372x; and long EURGBP above the 0.900x handle with main targets 0.92xx and 1.00x. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Short
by ridethepig
2
ridethepig | JPY Market Commentary 18.12.2020📌 @ridethepig G10 FX Market Commentary 18.12.2020 What was the point in BOJ meeting overnight? Finally extensions of the handouts coming from the Japanese base, and remarkably the 103.0x was rescued via lack of conviction from macro players to chase it lower. Buyers now can play the break, undoing their opponents work and imagine the test of 105 as being important for the yearly close flows. This iteration of dollar strength will be most visible in GBPUSD and USDJPY - choppy conditions seem appropriate. Here we are tracking this rather technical move. I am looking firstly for a move towards 105 resistance, followed by a zag to fade back towards 103.5x which is a 300 tick round trip. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
1
ridethepig | EURGBP Breaking Out?📌 @ridethepig G10 FX Market Commentary 17.12.2020 - EURGBP This line illustrates how we can attempt picking a fight with the winning side. It is a characteristic for confidence to see price getting rejected each time it dips below 0.900x, while when above, buyers have the ability to roam anywhere, they are in full control! Here the weakness is isolated to the UK and it is worth considering to play against EUR, USD and JPY in particular. The GBP outflows is now such an abused line that we can comfortably play on various crosses at the same time. Aiming for a test of 0.922x to be resolved initially before anything else. In order to keep maintaining the advantage, buyers should look to pick up pace on the technical break as all resistance will be damaged. UK and EU have had their say...Now it is the markets turn. I am aiming to keep the short-term flows coming in-between the LT and MT chart updates as I know many here are not interested in macro charts being posted into the tradingview ether. Thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
3