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Ridethepig

ridethepig | BTC WaterfallAn important chart update here as we approach the main targets in the leg higher. For those who have been following the live flows we forecasted earlier in the year; we have the choice of retreating and taking profits and avoiding loss of time. The question of momentum must be in some ways critical. The following diagrams show a breakdown of the previous position: Play may now go on.... a counterattack from sellers is a bold move. When major forces align and confidence in governments collapse, BTC comes down to a sort of hedge against the public sector. What I would highlight is the failure to break the previous highs with any meaningful force is very telling and sending alarm bells. 📍 "Selling their lives for the highest price" .... it is the classic death of unaware retailers. So what is in play here? Well, $20,000 resistance is quite happy to hold, and yet after a few failed attempts the train is fully loaded. FinTwit are all over this like a rash, and it appears quite understandable for we all want to sell our coins for as much as possible !!! Generally speaking, such a 5 wave "impulsive sequence" is typical and totally valid. The next chapter, a sharp retrace, seems a common occurrence as governments start to rush through their own digital currencies. We can expect politicians to become a lot harsher and more forceful with measures into 2021 and 2022 as the overwhelming reality of social programs failing hits home. Here looking for a complete retrace of the entire covid wave in the coming weeks and months. These are not the levels to build longs, those using FOMO as their weapon of choice will be punished. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PShort
by ridethepig
9
ridethepig | GBP Market Commentary 02.12.2020This point of view, relying on the soundness of the highs, which has been proved, will be vital to our success, because it is what we are leaning on and it is giving us a chance to pull the trigger in a somewhat cheap area in terms of risk. But the risk is as follows: if the only way to achieve liquidation is a sweep above mentioned highs, the possibility of running stops on a headline is still NOT zero. So what are the possibilities of our stops getting hit? It is not an easy one to answer. It depends on a closer look at the timing, it is always more important than price, the only reason GBP is not trading at 1.20 and 1.15 is namely the dollar devaluation and some more details around a deal which can still follow. I would like to anticipate that it was all too easy for UK to push through Pfizer and consider it an important advance on softening brexit headlines that are still to come. Allow appropriate room for the stops incase of that possible thrust, a single towards 1.285 and 1.20 is sufficient. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Short
by ridethepig
3
Oil running out of steam...A difficult call here after clearing OPEC manoeuvre. Of course the supply sacrifice was possible, but the shallow support is now completely cooked in the price. For those tracking the full OPEC moves: Of course buyers won the highs and we made some decent gains from the latest taking of the latent 46 highs. But as this price action is showing, we have to deal with profit taking and further lockdowns coming for California and etc will not help. The theory of a revisit of $41 / $40 will cast light on the extended lockdowns, covid chapter (3) and an eventual flood on supply side one more time. In the long term, we are back to the previous breakdown that we traded last Winter. The macro retrace is almost over and as sellers start to form a high, it appears that late buyers are exposed and are likely to be sent backwards. The highs did not hold, to confirm the break up was rotten we need to get back below $45. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
TVC:USOILShort
by ridethepig
8
ridethepig | NZD Chart of the WeekThis chart update comes after the conversation with @YIQI.... We are tracking how the following elegant defence can hold a breakup through, namely the main target in NZ 10Y Yields: For those who remember, the sweep and breakup was what we had our eye on. A move from 50bps to 100bps was very fancy! And now we have for ourselves a change of scenery! The previous flow must unwind, and in plan of their new attack we can ride the profit taking. Sharp sellers are itching to attack, 0.705x should be able to hold, I am in full sized positions. Thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍or 👎
Short
by ridethepig
8
ridethepig | OPEC, Oil and everything in-betweenA quick chart update here after reaching the 4th wave targets in a retrace; Buyers now have a definite advantage going into OPEC; an extension of the cuts will be enough to open the position towards $50. But the advantage is only tiny, as we are back at the previous breakdown from our long-term macro charts: OPEC now need to play the desperation moves with precision and genuine artistry. In my books, a master-stroke from Saudis with Iran noise there in the background incase a diversion is needed to complete the flow. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
TVC:USOILLong
by ridethepig
2
ridethepig | AUDNZD Market Commentary 02.12.2020There was apparently no motivation for sellers to continue the advance lower and neither does it seem pragmatic. AUD buyers are showing up once more and this looks like the prelude to an exciting momentum gambit. The trigger comes from a leap above the latent highs, it will move us forward full of energy as shorts start covering and the youthful arrogance of those reluctant to close get margin called. I choose to answer the lows with a gentle position, no more than one or two in the start, and the quietness of a worthwhile virtue. The whole business of markets is about the advance for our momentum, because the traps have already been set, sellers still think they have won, but only when we zoom out on the macro charts can we truly demonstrate the underlying AUD strength. So I would tend to describe the above floor as cheap and open. With clearing month end flows and markets trying to get their 2021 trades on early with commodity shortages entering into the picture already, we should emphasise exposure in AUD. Of course, Australian and China relationships are not working perfectly, although I expect this will be the story to track in 2021 rather than December 2020. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
9
ridethepig | DAX sufferingAn interesting development on DAX after the planned highs last week. We will go through what does it mean, how is this an advantage to sellers and when is it appropriate to add to the position. The same focus can be applied across the global equity board. Resistance can also be conceived with the presence of stimulus; but total restraint, which reigns from lockdowns stretching into another 3 weeks for Germany will give buyers breathing difficulties...To what extent, should we ask, is this an advantage that we can capitalise on and how unpleasant will that be for buyers? Our very short-term range is +/- 15% ... so although from a timing perspective we are compact, the yield connected with such a wide range is apparent. The main mid-term and long-term range is even clearer: 📍 Rule: when loading on the short-term understand the position our opponent poses in the mid and long term, to further understanding of scope and whether taking the position is worthwhile.. With this in mind, in the long-term macro chart in euro I posted back in 2018... yes 2018... it was about buyers attempting to trap their opponent into a selloff before continuing the legs higher. With a completion of the moves in euro, the formation of the hammer in Germany equities can finally advance with 1.20xx and 1.21xx cleared. But there is no-stopping the digital euro into 2021 and thus the attempt to cancel the currency remains under pressure: As well as active pressure from the currency, there is also the concept of lockdowns and further static economic growth from Germany. We must distinguish from whether this is a short lived -15% selloff or a sustained economic cycle down. Send the troops, time will tell. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
GShort
by ridethepig
ridethepig | Natural Gas Breaking Out!A nice swing cooking right on time for December seasonality flows to kick in. This leg higher threatens the sacrifice of resistance and creates freedom to manoeuvre towards $4 and $5 in 2021. We have a similar sized move cooking in energy to the leg we traded in Oil, only this time round the swing we are tracking is to the topside. See for example the following breakdown we traded in Oil; In the ST, play with the flow and continue ride the leg higher towards something like +/- 3.5 and 4.0 as the extension. Sellers are quite paralysed. For the MT and LT as we know, the philosophy of transition towards a 'Green new Deal' or 'Build back better' in such a short period of time constitutes a pipe dream. Already power grids are coughing badly with so much activity from lockdowns and more people at home, the theory that we will all be driving electric cars and etc looks quite far... one cannot rebuild energy without great difficulties is important to understand. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
NLong
by ridethepig
1
ridethepig | EURGBP grinding higherBarnier comments on 'no deal is still possible' well illustrating the strategic skill of negotiation. UK has sadly been completely outplayed, not by any fault other than some simple Etonians sticking about fisheries which is 0.02% of GDP...Hard to understand how we ended up here, most £500m private companies would never dream of hiring Johnson as CEO or Sunak as CFO...Brexit was always political fairy-dust, a last despairing effort to continue the 'empire' which was immediately countered via the powerful Klaus Schwab at WEF and etc. 📍 The lows are now protected and in good shape. Of course, you are right to think the threat is for them to sweep the lows, just like how buyers played the interesting line of sweeping the highs in GBPUSD before crashing: I love it when a story comes together. The next leg here is higher for EURGBP, London is vacating its seat at the table (in the short-term at least) and sharp speculators are well aware. Much better to look for a test of the highs here, as we shall see, an important few weeks. I completely understand why some voted for Brexit, unfortunately in such a scenario there is always the question: which carries more weight globally, the UK or the EU? Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
3
ridethepig | Gold Market Commentary 01.12.2020Here selling would be a weak move, though it involves the sharp threat of 'everything back to normal' and 'the virus has gone'. The error is that Buyers are still protecting as the underlying infrastructure is weak, as long as confidence in the public sector dampens, buyers will continue blockading the $1,803 wall. After spotting the divergence, we are now ready to march forward into the swing. Buyers should not be lost. The ability to make such differentiations between legs will stand us in a nimble stead. We must, in my books, take each swing as it comes and on a case by case basis, whether the driver is strong or weak, subtle or stiff, etc. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by ridethepig
18
ridethepig | Base Metals StrategyThe linkage between base metals and the rate differentials is unknown to many in the pseudo-classical school of TA, which believe only in absolute correlation; as you all know the supply disruptions and pandemic related closures triggered the waterfall but we are not out of the woods yet...Remember we still have the demand side shock to play into price too, this will allow us to complete a 'wave 2' pullback with an ABC correction. The revisions down in mining supplies was enough to spark an interest in buyers, and now that most believe we have seen the worst from the demand side it is allowing Copper to form a MT and LT base formation. Those tracking the mining projects in Brazil will know the announcements for a restart in operations have already started. This is going to keep Copper and Steel in particular in strong bid. 📍 On the positioning side, after the healthy (in a technical sense) neutralisation of the entire commodity board we have cleared both sides of the extremes and positioning is currently neutral. The majority must not be allowed on this train, or else the threat of an over-crowded wedge would be disastrous. Take for example what happened against Oil, the boat was fully loaded and we got the historic shakeout: Eyeballing a test of 2.3 as the value area to re-engage with bullish exposure. We can then bring about the transfer from the wave 2 retrace into an impulsive wave 3. This will be excellent training for those wanting to dig deeper into wave theory and understand the complicated motifs. As usual, thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, charts and etc!
OANDA:XCUUSDLong
by ridethepig
ridethepig | Dollar into December📍 Dollar into December ... Here we are dealing with a sensitive situation, which we have discussed previously at earlier opportunities. One should not overlook the underlying strength of the dollar given it is the centrepiece of the currency board. After clearing the vaccine and all is roses newsflow, the next chapter of covid and risk is here into December - I am expecting dollar to find some short-term support, investors will take cover under the table while risk rushes into the room for the coming weeks. The manoeuvre is intended to provide a retrace from the impulsive leg down, but not too far. We must defend skilfully as sellers are already 'quite in love' with the dollar devaluation story. However, markets do not move in straight lines and some legs are worthy of participation. I personally think a pullback towards 94/95 before we can continue with artificial devaluation towards 80/75 in 2021. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
TVC:DXYLong
by ridethepig
9
ridethepig | Gold Finding a Bottom📍 The nucleus of the retrace is in the open with a possibility of finding a floor. The central majority were clearly long into the elections and price got too far forward, or in other words this was a healthy correction which we saw coming miles in advance. All things being equal we should find quite a strong bid here as sellers unwind their shorts and buyers step back into the market fixing us back towards structural support. Therefore we can see the lows as a necessity to add into 2021 and with risk restraining equities it's time to start looking at commodities in special variations. Here we also have opportunities in the links to the chain, mining companies. Because why should an idea of commodity shortages not take on the role in equities too from time to time?! For those that remember the Santa rally last year... Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by ridethepig
10
'Risk-off' knocking at the moonlit door; Long Gold📌 After completing a second test of 1.20xx, profit taking entered into play with the fix yesterday. Dollar is clearly restrained by Fed and WH prevention and then by a later of risk hedge clearings . Before I present the usual schematic representation, we should look at just how difficult the environment is to play correctly with timing these reversals. As soon as a divergence is formed, we have the choice of a shallow or deep retrace in EURUSD towards 1.16xx/1.17xx or a sharp leg higher in Gold towards $1,970 and $2,100. Gold bears must also bear in mind risk-off flows are once again knocking at the door via Iran after clearing the vaccine newsflow. I have been fielding questions around stimulus for a while, it is easy to lean on CB's but the correlation is breaking and exactly on time when this transfer should happen. Hard to understand; a better way to put this is look for a large correction in Gold after clearing the board to set about some painstaking defence for the next round of risk-off flows cooking. Thanks as usual for keeping the support coming 👍 or 👎
by ridethepig
8
Restraint at the highs📌 SPX has had its advance cut off; an attempt to cap it from the reckless advance allows the possibility of a panic blow which is decisive and impulsive in such situations, namely the invasion towards the pivot. This idea illustrates the stratagem of a major high against a 'positive' news flow. Since the Vol expansion is necessary for the defence of the highs, an exchange at 21/22 is the way we defend. You should memorise this move of forcing our opponent to make up their mind, after clearing the positivity newsflow around vaccine and etc we are going to have 'diversion' introduced. This should be considered playing against, contested elections and uncomfortable positioning from stimulus expectations leaves the entire board looking vulnerable. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by ridethepig
13
ridethepig | USDCHF Market Commentary 2020.11.26📌 ridethepig | USDCHF Market Commentary 2020.11.26 This is one of the classic simultaneous 'worm in the apple' plays. It is an instructive illustration of the link between bids and offers in the short-term and diversionary support on the lows. The dependence of buyers position appears clearly on USD strength. The correct play here is to bid the 0.907x lows. A fresh train of thought should unlock a test of 0.912x and 0.914x. And sellers will then have to overcome their problems once more. According to the 'dollar', we are all the way at the bottom of the range for Thanksgiving and this low must be blockaded: It is with reluctance and after great thought that I decided on this diversion out on the lows. It seems somewhat daring, because conditions do not seem to be quite safe in the US. One of my main principles states that a fading attack is only correct when we see that others are willing to play too, as with Europe this morning on the open.... For the flows, entry 0.907x with targets clearly defined above at 0.912x and 0.914x while invalidation below 0.905x. As usual thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
6
ridethepig | NZDUSD Market Commentary 2020.11.25📍 My dear readers, it is clear what we are trying to achieve here.... a protection of the highs / resistance with initial targets at our centre / pivot and extension targets below at support. The control which belongs to buyers is blockaded and open to attack. It is expensive to maintain the highs; this means that the necessary pullback when energy exhausts is all too easy to ride. It appears quite appropriate to consider the Dollar selloff exhausted and an advance in DXY via extreme risk-off flows as investors look for cover under the table. Keeping a close eye on 0.70c as it turns out to be deceptive for buyers as the government is clearly feeling pressure from the RBNZ QE approach. Look to buy NZD but from cheaper levels, until then... looking to play the retrace lower. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Short
by ridethepig
6
ridethepig | DAX favourable to sellers📍 A few more words about the possible creation of a waterfall in global equities. There is a strategically interesting example of the exploitation of ECB and FED. The board is hanging by a thread, here German Equities are remarkably similar to that of someone who is having difficult paying their debts while having to bend the knee and convince the masses to be guarantors. One indication of the weakness at the highs is the isolation of 'C' represented in the retrace. All in all, the price action is clearly congested and gridlocked at the highs, but it will become really weak in the endgame of a cycle. Here buyers came back in after we cleared the initial targets. If they manage to stop the sellers by completely blockading the downside and turning the move into an impulsive nature, then they are only right to claim victory with a break of C which will then unlock '3' in a sequence... you get the point... The choice between bids and offers is generally not a very difficult one to make with vaccine and elections (almost) cleared. Of course the short-term news will shift negative a the hanging stimulus is illusory. So we can actively sell the highs here; quite rightly aiming for support. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
GShort
by ridethepig
7
ridethepig | FTSE Fundamental FlowsHere we are more or less back to square one as to where we were in July and testing away at the resistance. Buyers are showing a lack of tenacity! If after the Brexit fact (does not really matter if its a deal or hard brexit deal) we can see the possible outflow pressure really start to make itself felt. The strong counter here should immediately come under pressure with the initial loss of market access and broader global slowdown. Once again (and with slow and steady pace) start to build some sell side exposure, abandon the overweight UK equities position and employ the following manoeuvres. A test of the centre looks rolled up and ready to take. Make excellent use of the flow towards 5,600. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
OANDA:UK100GBPShort
by ridethepig
1
ridethepig | CAC Market Commentary 2020.11.25📌 ridethepig | CAC Market Commentary 2020.11.25 The stem for the ending of a retrace and intentions of a turn... Breaking down ahead of US elections was strategically important. This was not a typical personality vote, the motives of Democrats are rather exclusively known and transferring the power here will indeed be revolutionary. Neither side can accept the loss, whether we see this end up in the courts or whether we see Biden with the 'hospital pass'... it is irrelevant for the sake of this conversation because in general sense of the term and it is weighing on global equities including DAX, CAC, FTSE, IBEX, FTSEMIB and etc. Eyes on the highs today, a move down from these levels opens up all sorts of problems for buyers. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
TVC:CAC40Short
by ridethepig
1
ridethepig | BTC Market Commentary 2020.11.21Lets start by measuring the enthusiasm, the radius of the attack by looking at the previous diagram and understand why $21,000 is key for unlocking the next chapter: All is clear...Buyers have the control, there is very little to prevent the test of fresh all time highs, meaning we need to keep an eye on the impulsive extension target at $34,820; this game is very one sided. Not only should we still be holding our longs, dear reader, but laugh and continue to add more! So, let us stick to the plan, manage the risk appropriately, watch-out for any Power Grid 'attacks' that can provide well-timed dips providing buying opportunities, we have more than enough ingredients in the pot! Back to business as usual here with a fresh round of map updates coming over the next few sessions... Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎...
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by ridethepig
2
ridethepig | VIX Panic Cycle📍 The theme we have set ourselves here for an expansion in Vol into next week, would usually provide enough material for an entire website, but lack of space compels me to moderate this into a short and snappy post. I shall only point out the most important notions and events from 2019 and save a deeper examination for later. The most brilliant post covid act, to be sure the idea of an expansion in volatility is not only linked to the increase in danger from a health rollercoaster which I propagated, based on the models. But VIX's move is surprising and I will not deny the brilliance of the full retrace. Also interesting is our earlier attempts to break up and make use of the flexible highs which we discovered ahead of US elections. All models are ticking up for the NY session today and looks set to last into next week. Aiming for the full set-up with 42 and 85. It is also worth noting that 42 is an interesting defence, going on to pressurise Biden with a 'hospital pass' for those familiar with the terminology in Rugby, it is where you are so fixated on catching the ball while it is in the air, that you forget about everything else around you. This early complacency, looks as anti-pseudo-capitalist as possible, but has found a good number of followers and turned out to be an extremely fruitful trade in equities. Major chart updates coming across the board over the coming hours and weekend. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎...
CBOE:VIXLong
by ridethepig
9
ridethepig | Oil Revisiting Support📍 The "revisit of support" - a misconception concerning the retrace When in the wide disputed range between 65 highs and -40 lows (insane), we are in a length process of refilling the ladder. The view appears to me to be based on an incomplete recession and misunderstood conception of the demand side. I shall try: 1️⃣ to point out that this in fact a misconception 2️⃣ to explain the historical flows that played out in the same way. Firstly, lets quickly review the conceptual 2020 map posted in December 2019: In this, we needed to simply track the squeeze higher itself; the energy is created by flushing out the late longs in the middle of the swing. Swings! Not day trading! This is an important notion and should never be forgotten under any circumstances. The significance of swing trading, i.e the waves or blocks from support to resistance and vice versa, as a basis for further operations, lies beyond al possible doubt. Take, for instance, this annotated map we made together in July. We are still trading the same flows! Sellers have a great positional advantage from the demand side, meaning suppliers will have to take action on the price. This is far from subtle and illustrates at the same time that deep bond between the real economy and the price of oil. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
TVC:USOILShort
by ridethepig
5