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Ridethepig

The birth of fresh weakness📌 Here we go for the main event... To illustrate the spillover effects between US and the rest of the board, we are going to use AUDJPY. This is absolutely going to be a long night, and of course, I wish it was over with already. Trump should, as has been emphasised several times, come out on top. What would be the significance of this move? Well, it renders the risk-off crowd totally mobile as it will be contested. To the other side, a Biden victory has somehow been taken as positive, let me point out the tax hikes that shall come back and will be really damaging. SELL AUDJPY @ 75.00 | TP1 73.9x | SL 75.6x Using JPY as 'defence against the dark arts' of politics tonight for multiple protection angles, in fact it puts the dark arts in the spotlight; protecting AUD outflows and JPY inflows are going to get in each other's way!
Short
by ridethepig
3
ridethepig | LTC in the electionsAn important update after the previous two chapters, which have been well planned we are finally ready to crop our harvest . The threat of such a breakdown, can and will provoke weakening in the support and thus its effect can last right into the elections. 📌 ridethepig | LTC Market Commentary 2020.09.22 📌 ridethepig | LTC Market Commentary 2020.10.22 So, the following expansion of volatility merits out special interest. It is about a sweeping play which seems to be following purely positional expectations. Instead of the breaking out adventure of a temporary slogan of independence, the crypto board is now dominated by a lasting hangover, covid and contested election risk. Things will need to settle down on the political and macro front before the excitement returns. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
COINBASE:LTCUSDShort
by ridethepig
3
ridethepig | Dollar UpdatesThe threat of a pullback has been set up, the unpleasant rally in USD as investors rush to park capital in the greenback. Just at the right moment, because of lockdowns, covid chapter II and things of this nature the highs can be burst open. Although we are in LONG TERM structural decline in the dollar, it does not mean we will not have to rush and take cover under the table when the storm hits shore. Buyers thus have a fortunate swing in play this week towards 95.4x. The job is only half finished, governments are aiming to default on the debt and covid / lockdowns provide the perfect cover. Capitalism is taking a sabbatical, it's being undermined and globalisation is collapsing like a house of cards. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍or 👎
TVC:DXYLong
by ridethepig
11
ridethepig | SPX into elections and beyond📍 SPX - into the elections and beyond This waterfall is a demonstration of how and where a decline in confidence on the risk front should be punished. The lust to expand equities higher is rather less here than one might suspect at first look. With the unsurprising hurdle of a contested election in US, buyers are threatened by an obstruction in democracy and Schwab transferring his influence across the Atlantic. The only valid plan here is to look for sells and be prepared for a waterfall into November. Sharp speculators are not buying at these levels and looking to set in motion a new economic cycle (yet), first we must finish the correction.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by ridethepig
7
ridethepig | Consumer Staples🛒 Consumer staples is dealing with a remarkable situation on the macro front which we have discussed at earlier opportunities (see ALPHA PROTOCOL: SEEKING IMMEDIATE EXTRACTION). One should be wary of the immediate risk for a waterfall as consumer staples hang onto the highs by a fingernail. After completing the 5 wave sequence to the topside, clearly the end of the road is approaching for this economic cycle and we must decline into 2021/2022 in order to untangle the flows for 2022 -> 2030. Time to start paying close attention for early signs of a turn. Risk is threatening to breakdown in an impulsive fashion, our opponents are attempting to prevent the breakdown, but with stimulus delayed till after the elections the protective move is out of the question this week. Strong support from a technical perspective is found at 53/52 and 48/47.
AMEX:XLPShort
by ridethepig
ridethepig | Dollar into the elections📌 This will act as the start of the next 'novel' on dollar: the first of course will serve as our map into the next 13 days. We must review the Medium and Long term charts to understand the art of what we are tracking, and the contact between Dollar and safe-haven flows as we enter into another expansion of volatility. The follow diagram portrays the position from earlier in the year, momentum arose with Covid and to such an extent that a rise in USD is no longer possible without venom for EM FX in particular. We have also been able to construct examples of the flows in main course dishes like EURUSD: In a nutshell, what we are tracking here is the C leg in a retrace wave, inside a more structural, longer term decline in the USD. A complex multi dimension environment, my short-term models are indicating of USD inflows as a protection for election risk and as an example of the ultimate safe haven with lockdowns & covid chapter II. The key question which we will answer as we move along will be if this is infact a retrace inside a sustained decline, or the start of a brand new uptrend in USD. In this scenario, a test of 97.5x would be enough to build confidence in the view. Recommend layering these in G10 and EM FX as we go for all those following the live calls. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
TVC:DXYLong
by ridethepig
27
ridethepig | Volatility into the electionsI should like to start with a reminder of the operational plan for the first Covid chapter. 📌 Covid Chapter I The terrain here was clear. My models were picking up on a sweep of the lows in VIX to clear the path for a +600% expansion. In order for us to manoeuvre around this we must understand how large hands move various assets at quite a precise moment. Let's continue to work through this example of the first chapter which will set the scene for our current leg. So the lows were swept in Q419 as expected to prepare the manoeuvres from that point. So the next chart should be considered here as a fortified support with lust to expand. It would only be right and proper for us to describe what comes next as impulsive, a move that was not without reason and certainly not without fear. And finally buyers ran out of steam as we approached the 85 main SWING TARGET . From 85 I was eyeballing a retrace towards 25. Look how easy it is to make use of the expansion. I see this as further proof of the enormous vitality of overprotecting support/resistance. If you 'know' where are the stops, you know hot to make use and expose with an appropriate reply. This was one of my favourite calls. 📌 Covid Chapter II This is clear proof that we are in sync with lockdowns and covid providing the manoeuvres. As we enter into the eye of the storm for the second wave, sentiment is definitively turning softer, although this case is much more complicated. If buyers remain passive above the 44/45 highs then we can see a well-timed massage from stimulus. In other words, we need the moves to happen before the elections and are running out of time. Buyers have developed a considerable appetite, bankruptcies are coming and complacency is repeating itself. We have two possibilities here existing for the terrain in Covid Chapter II. The breakout of the highs in this consolidation block to unlock a re-visit of 85 resistance assuming things go tits up in the coming days/weeks. Sellers of volatility have nothing immediately in play because of covid and contested election risk. The only correctness of the thesis comes from stimulus, which is an expectation now for after the elections. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
CBOE:VIXLong
by ridethepig
3
ridethepig | DAX into the elections and beyond📍 DAX gaining tempo The previous 2020 macro map, outdated as it may be, contains the overarching manoeuvre which we can now describe as a compounding play. It is as follows: my models started to pick up on the alarm bells towards the back-end of last year, and hinted of DAX making revisiting 10,000. The compounding is going to be of great importance, when we realise the 5th wave is still (yet) to complete. By the time private clients began to call outguessing the Green / CDU coalition and 'Green New Deal' it was too late... and there now occurs two dominos: if DAX retests the lows in a panic move, and sellers force through a retest of the lows for a second time and then the new economic cycle can begin in 2021/2022. Moreover, for those trading the single currency, we are going to get major updates here as we enter into 2021 and digital currencies come through the backdoor. This fact paves the way for perpetual bonds which are on the way to act as a trojan horse for government defaults is of utmost concern. The brutal bear market rally in the euro is not going to help german equities over the coming months, and the ECB knows it which is why they are signalling distress signals louder than usual.
OANDA:DE30EURShort
by ridethepig
5
ridethepig | Buy EURGBP expecting GBP outflows📝 EURGBP While the single currency block continues to work together on Covid the UK is as divided as ever, from Scottish independence to the North / South divide. Faster Macro data has started to tick back down in Europe and the UK. We are going to see a decline in activity once more into November and with Brexit still to come this will hurt the UK more in the immediate term. On the technical side, the break of 0.915x is encouraging for bulls and opens up in the near-term a test of 0.927x. I would also like to leave core positions running for the inevitable test of parity. Keep a close eye on 1.294x for those in GBPUSD. Thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
3
ridethepig | USDCAD Market Commentary 2020.10.28📍 I am trying something out here with some faster flow charts. This is of similar nature to the preparations and strategy notes we made in EURUSD: In order to liberate the highs in USDCAD, buyers must take out the Tokyo defence. They are hoping to prevent the breakup for as long as possible, the annoying notion for sellers is Canada cases accelerating quickly and lockdowns chapter II entering into play. We also have managed to provoke the bull into attack from the Oil side. The supply side outweighs the demand side and will only continue to widen as national lockdowns enter back into play. The moves lower in Oil are also playable of course. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming and if these shorter-term flow charts are becoming more useful for those trading the faster flows.
Long
by ridethepig
ridethepig | LTC Market Commentary 2020.10.22📍 LTC Market Commentary 2020.10.22 A good time to update the chart here, after exactly a month we managed to complete the retrace from +/- 42 to +/- 53 without much stress. For those tracking this leg higher, a quick recap of the previous swing: So what are we trading here? In the immediate term, we have US election risk and covid escalating out of control. This will be enough to pull the brakes on risk assets for the coming sessions from a strictly macro perspective. Given that BTC is quickly becoming the only game in town, we can start to unwind any outstanding positions across alts benefiting from the Paypal leg and prepare for a very technical flow back towards $40. Thanks all for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
COINBASE:LTCUSDShort
by ridethepig
2
ridethepig | Surfing the Vix⚠️ Chapter IV: Vix and microstructure ⚠️ For those following the swings in Vix since 2019 you will know we are tracking for the overprotection from sellers and how to try to get rid of the 'all is back to normal' sentiment. This is a shorter update than the previous three chapters, intentionally aimed at casting some light on how sellers are overshooting support and how risk 'may' appear in the microstructure. So let us start by recapping the swings between the starting point of the expansion which set this all in motion: Capitulation waters clearly represents a manoeuvre which is closely intertwined with microstructure and liquidity game theory and indeed must always be so because of the nature of free markets. Nevertheless, there are traces of overshoots to the downside . For example when sellers went overboard to sweep the lows underneath 12 in attempt of opening the single digit block: Buyers loaded and created a strong basing formation as pointed out in chapter II. In the area where sellers overshot is a strategy you will notice me using often. Play through the charts and notice how minimal drawdown was required at the base ( for which we gave incredible respect ) and because we had to keep in mind the unavoidable possibility of economic cycle inversions. Here is the final example in the recap after we exploded towards the 85 final target as called from 12 (+500% and a historic move in volatility). "VIX Completing the Swing to 85" Intending to meet a possible barrier at 38 and 25, only now does it become clear as to why price stalled at the highs instead of developing a three figure vix print. No matter what happens, this has and will remain three superb chapters of effortless unravelling of the soft retail and unaware institutional money . The spare room to 100 remains open. I think the 'everything is back to normal' crowd are too hasty in this and do not realise the tsunami of bankruptcies and debt on the horizon as we enter into year-end and 2021. Every digit retrace point in the VIX from current levels should be bought aggressively for a position way out to the 85 highs and 100 extensions for an epic news headline. This move should by now be chalked on all charts . As usual thanks all for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
CBOE:VIXLong
by ridethepig
23
ridethepig | Dow and Volatility into the elections and beyondThis diagram consists of my conception of the election positional play and continues into my treatment of the end-game in an economic cycle. 1️⃣ The reciprocal relationship between risk tolerance on the one hand and a contested election on the other. As we will soon notice, my dear followers, my conception of the next few weeks and months is largely based on the knowledge which we have painstakingly collected since 2019. 2️⃣ A house of cards. I started picking up on the alarm bells in October last year. My VIX models were starting to warn of a +500% move towards 85. A sweep of the lows under 12 to capitulate any soft bulls would force put covering. This was all done in Q419 before a contraction in globalisation entered into play from Q120. You can check for yourself here the timestamps …and oh surprise surprise… 85 was the exact HIGH of the FIRST COVID CHAPTER. 🔑 Pay attention to what happens next Sure the move from 12 to 85 might have been easy to spot - We tested it to the pipette ✅ - Buyers were exhausted and found a valid place to cover ✅ I want to highlight something very important, as you have all seen the flows live in advance....Let’s go into some details and leave make the picture crystal clear: If you are wondering how...? First if we look vix from 85 as we originally did, we can see the October 2019 highs are open. Obviously, these are same levels when my models began to pick up the alarm bells. Here is where things start making sense Been in absolutely no doubt. The biggest sharks in the game are repositioning. Remember, VIX ⬆️ gives us the green light to sell risk in absolute terms . As you can all see we continued to track the flows together across other asset classes. In this case, the move was not without venom for European Equities. Using the 2020 map for DAX for reference: Perpetual bonds are the Trojan horse for government defaults. Insiders know what was cooking and wanted to unwind German Equity exposure outguessing the ‘Green New Deal’. Well we are back to square one. Equities completing the retrace and we are set for Covid Chapter Two. Professional portfolios are going to come under severe stress in the coming weeks, even the most advanced players will be tested to their limits as they all have the same ingredients. 

OANDA:US30USDShort
by ridethepig
7
ridethepig | EURUSD Strategy Notes 📌 EURUSD Market Commentary 2020.10.22 A possible reversal between sellers and buyers taking profits After Eurobonds Positional Play , buyers might consider the exchanging manoeuvre from 1.20xx a good level to take profits since these levels are dangerous waters for those wanting to add longs. However, the recapture of 1.18xx is apparent, and noteworthy of how RM accounts have driven the entire leg higher from 1.16xx. Sellers simply play a protection of resistance here at 1.185/1.186 and have a chance to win control as there will be unaware buyers still loading here at these levels thinking a blue wave is positive for markets. To the downside, a test of the 1.153x is still pending and clearly visible that it is worthy of mention. Remember, whenever retail sees that a position is not working initially, they will aim to liquidate and put the remaining capital into a better swing. Unfortunately, all too often, tactics are used to trigger the liquidation and can become very unpleasant. I mea the sort of situation we are seeing around U.S. elections is threatening for another sharp increase in volatility and we have covid to put the cherry on top.
Short
by ridethepig
11
ridethepig | Stoxx 50 into the elections and beyond📌 STOXX 50 The purpose of the operation here is a clean and simple 5-3-5 sequence to the downside which means the lows are still exposed to another flank attack from those accompanying bears. This is a very important few weeks and months for volatility and in a roundabout way we must take full advantage of this while it takes place. I don't consider the manoeuvre here to be any different from the elementary operation we took at the beginning of the year in European Equities as we are in the same complacent environment with covid escalating out of control. As we have discussed together before, the herd must always be wrong and recognising this and the misconception of the v-shapers can only lead to an eventual test of previous support. To the topside, invalidation will come via a closing breach of 3490/3500 as this is the level which is protected via its own barrier. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
EShort
by ridethepig
7
ridethepig | Oil Entering into Resistance📌 Oil - Election Positioning Map @ridethepig Here we are approaching the strong 41.5x resistance, the same levels we have been tracking since calling an end to the v shapers rebound. OPEC now has the difficult task of provoking price into action, any manoeuvres on the supply side will not be able to offset the demand shock from further restrictions and lockdowns entering back into play. For those who remember the pre-covid chart, we are in a very similar environment: For sellers here and now, the 41.5x represents a certain chance of setting up fresh shorts and attacking both the centre and the low in our map. It should be clear that we are in a dead cat bounce still from the initial knee jerk reaction flow. Expecting a test of the lows and $30 extensions before building a more solid basing formation. An extremely instructive example of how we can find openings in the chaos.
TVC:USOILShort
by ridethepig
5
ridethepig | French Equities into the election and beyond📌 An update to the map for French Equities By now we should have all positioned our portfolios defensively and be sure that in doing so by covering we are ensuring that our opponent will not try a steam roller! Think back to the diagram and follow the flows.... We have a typical position here in which French Equities can be sold actively. Thanks to the economic slowdown, covid and election risk, we can quickly bring about the attack of our targets. Sellers have already completed the difficult part of the move, but we must not go to sleep on the job! For the sake of the discussions here, encourage all those who are trading the moves down in equities to start sharing their charts and views in the comments and we can further the conversation and developments.
TVC:CAC40Short
by ridethepig
4
ridethepig | BTC Market Commentary 2020.10.21📌 What have we got in play here? On the news flow Paypal does matter but it was expected and is done at the right time if you ask me. I mean the retrace here will be healthy, to trap the late buyers who are unaware thinking its non-stop-moon while also opening an attack on the previous breakout traders at $11,500. A positional play. Sellers can now work on the profit taking and arrive on the support for nothing less than a retest. The long term view remains intact but it is also extremely obvious that we are set for another flush before the elections.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PShort
by ridethepig
3
ridethepig | AUD Market Commentary 2020.10.21🔸 AUDUSD - Market Commentary 2020.10.21 The following play is aiming for a test of 70c; after a very dovish RBA earlier in the week opening the window for negative rates, we have some more downside to play. Wellll done all those selling AUDCAD , AUDUSD and AUDCNH . Volatility is going to continue to expand as we enter into the elections which will weigh heavily on AUD and NZD to a lesser extent. The play towards 70c can be opened by a fresh zig-zag from sellers. Such a move should never be played without being aware where we are wrong and measuring with certain effectiveness the bang for our buck. The downside is made possible via USD finding a temporary bid for ultimate safe-haven flows. We must recognise the dollar as the reserve currency and give it credit where credit is due. For the technical flows, looking for an eventual test of 0.700x/0.699x while invalidation above comes with a closing basis through 0.711x. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Short
by ridethepig
2
ridethepig | BTC Market Commentary 2020.10.20📌 Bitcoin - October 2020 Well done those still holding longs in what has been a rather slow but simple grind higher. Buyers could have developed quicker according to the flow models but we maintained flexibility. Next comes the wave 3 target at $12,364. And buyers are not particularly favourable to break through without a retrace. The correct course is to take some profits and reload from cheaper levels. Rinse and repeat. And now, I present the whole macro flow chart, because of the log-chart breakout it is a good example of how even strong hands and advanced players are frequently unable to understand the core strategy. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by ridethepig
4
ridethepig | GBP Trade of the Week♟ Another clear map for us to play with Brexit and the U.S. elections acting as the main price drivers. A double top is a purely tactical weapon. It is terrible compelling; even for the most unaware retailers who will jump in - so we are tracking for flows driven to the lows after a double top. We shall close this Brexit chapter with some strong short GBP trades. (1). In the following EURGBP things are coming down to an interesting break unlocking the 1.00x levels: GBP sellers have of course got the control, they are winning the continuation as long as 1.306x is holding (note the importance of this resistance, it should be safe and sound). What we must take into account is the tactical manoeuvre of the slimy politicians and any headlines around a brexit deal. To the downside, 1.291x as an initial target with 1.267x the bigger level below. Thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Short
by ridethepig
6
ridethepig | Replacing the defence in NZ YieldsComparing NZ 10Y Yield with AU 10Y Yield we can see the divergence opening up. The local stories in NZ are looking a lot worse than in Australia for now, depriving the NZ 10Y Yield of completing the base formation. On the currency side, the strategic link between AUD and NZD is being threatened by AUD breaking up and flirting to complete the leg towards 1.12 - something we have been tracking since June: On the technical flows, the NZ10Y can sweep 0.5% comfortably, where it would be then able to replace the current defence with a more solid structure for a move back towards 1.0%. Thus the 🔑 to answering direction for NZ10Y comes only with more time elapsing.
TVC:NZ10YLong
by ridethepig
2
'Giant Panda' surrender of the AUD bid📌 Surrendering of the AUD bid The following play is an example of how easily a premature surrender of the ladder can lead to a correction. In light of that, for the news flow we have a two course dinner: 1️⃣ A dovish RBA on deck notably showing signs of distress with Australian 10Y Yield and opening the door for more QE. This is going to keep the downward pressure on AUD in the immediate term while CB's and governments around the globe prepare to tap into the overdraft one more time. 2️⃣ Regular readers will know we have been tracking PBOC for some time. The "Giant Panda" has been spotted (more than once on the AUD bid and quite practicably so. The importance here comes from them effectively pressing the release valve via banning Australian coal. 3️⃣ Any last minute USD outflows ahead of election event risk will be positive CAD in the immediate term. A Trump victory would then likely unwind those, while a Biden sweep I suspect accelerates the flows from US to Canada. 📌 The following swing that we are tracking is a combinatory complication . From a flows perspective, sellers can resign after testing the previous resistance turned support, with the threat of penetration towards the previous centre in the orderblock. The floor will depend on risk passing, for now let's keep working shorts and use CAD to park as a defensive move to ride the pig on any last minute U.S election outflows; 0.930x -> 0.900x looks within reach. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Short
by ridethepig
2