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RIG

RIG (Transocean) – Potential Reversal? Technical Overview • Current Trend: RIG has been in a clear downtrend since September 2023, as confirmed by Dr. Elder’s Triple Screen framework. However, recent technical signals suggest the trend is losing steam. • Weekly Timeframe: The MACD histogram is showing a bullish divergence, indicating that the momentum behind the price decline is weakening. Additionally, a falling wedge pattern has emerged on both the weekly and monthly charts—typically a reversal signal with strong bullish implications. Entry Strategy and Price Action Expectations • Daily Timeframe: We are closely monitoring the $3.90 level. If the price holds above this level, it is likely to form a double bottom on the daily chart. A breakout above the wedge could trigger significant upside momentum. Historically, similar corrections after bullish divergences on the weekly chart have produced gains of up to 90%. Market Context and Macro Factors Oil Market Influence: The price action in RIG correlates heavily with the broader oil market. With oil supply tightening due to OPEC+ cuts and geopolitical tensions (e.g., the Middle East conflict), the oil market could experience an upward cycle. These macro tailwinds may accelerate RIG’s recovery if confirmed by technical breakouts. Conclusi on If the $3.90 support level holds, and the double bottom forms as expected, RIG has the potential to align with the broader bullish trend on the weekly chart. With a falling wedge pattern and bullish divergence supporting the reversal narrative, this could mark the beginning of a new uptrend. Potential Trade Setup: Entry: Above $4.00 for confirmation of the breakout. Target: 90%+ upside potential based on historical patterns. Stop Loss: Below $3.80 to minimize risk. This setup offers a high-probability trade, provided the technical signals align with favorable market conditions. Monitor daily for confirmation and adjust your risk accordingly. NYSE:RIG Disclaimer: This analysis reflects my personal opinion and is provided for informational purposes only. It is not intended as financial advice or an investment recommendation.
NYSE:RIGLong
by NORD25
3
Is oil signalling a recession? Oil has really started to free fall. The death cross on the daily chart has occurred. this is where the 50 MA intersects with the 200 MA in a downtrend. This often implies more downside to the medium and long term but is often a great short term long signal. Usually when you get this signal the market makers bounce the stock or commodity a bit before taking it lower. We are hitting a massive multi year trend line going back to 2022 that should act as some support. XLE looks ready for 1 more down leg before a swing tradable low is in. Energy does have a tendency to fall precipitously so understanding oil can keep falling if investors fear the worst or a recession.
AMEX:XLE
by Trading-Capital
5
Trade Setup for Transocean Ltd (RIG) on the Daily Chart:I have just about 2 key things to say here on this analysis. 1. Key Levels to Watch: We can see that there is some resistance at $5.32: This is a strong ceiling where the price has struggled to break through. If the price moves above this level with strong momentum, it could signal a potential breakout to the upside. On the other hand, there is a support at $5.02: This is a strong floor where the price has found support multiple times. If the price falls below this level, it could indicate a significant move downwards. 2. Trend Confirmation: If you are a fun of Linear Regression Line: Check if the line is sloping upwards or downwards. An upward slope suggests the market is in an uptrend, while a downward slope suggests a downtrend. Utilize the Moving Averages: Above MAs: If the price is above the moving averages (e.g., 21-period MA), the trend is likely bullish. Below MAs: If the price is below the moving averages, the trend is likely bearish. Happy Trading.
NYSE:RIG
by Deno_Trading
1
Trading Game. How they manipulate with priceImagine You buy a stock or business, that You think was undervalued based on the "circumstances" and that you think has great value. You bought this at 1$, during 2020 November alongside with the oil rally. Nobody knows the price. Everyone has a price target... Imagine my price target was 7$ - based on the previous highs. Chances are everyone will look at it the same way and adjust the price based on some context. Under price momentum, there was buyers and sellers and stock rise to 3$..4$..5$ etc... If everyone use 7$ for guidance - most likely everyone be selling their shares at 5$. If I wanted you to sell higher I would shout 10$. If I wanted you to sell lower I would shout 0.50$. People would adjust their targets and nobody knows exactly how much something is worth. That's what the institutions do with their public price targets. It works like a poker game. The closer price got to 5$ -> more risk you took by buying or holding it. If I had a ton of bitcoins, I would shout $200k price. and sell it when it's strong. etc. Then cause panic - to get cheaper prices. #101
NYSE:RIGLong
by citsvar
13
Natural Gas going lower? How about Oil?Natural gas has started the week off on a bad note. Nat gas has lost the key weekly volume gap fill at $1.8622 This was the line in the sand that the bulls needed to maintain. The fact that Natural GAs has lost the key supply zone shapes up for a likely bearish move lower. We are holding the 20 Day MA so Bull have one last hope at this level. Hope typically isnt a good strategy. Based off of the RSI divergence, Nat gas may make new lows in the cycle before it has a bullish reversal. Oil today was weak early on and then made a massive red to green reversal. We have observed every time oil dips into the daily EMA 113, it keeps getting gobbled up. A bull flag on the daily chart is still being observed. XLE keeps moving higher as it sniffing out higher oil prices. Oil for the month of February has higher prices compared to the month of January, this should put a higher bid on the CPI energy component tomorrow.
BLACKBULL:WTI
by Trading-Capital
The Rig "blue horseshoe loves the next 100 baggers to the moon"it's ike buying a pair of jeans .. and not using it probably the next big thing when oil hits $100 or ARAMCO debuts soon it's all a cycle for the benefit of the few greedy players -- notice the VOLUME underneath relative to previous years.. those whales splashing discretely while price at sub $2 is at rest -- thieves like to accumulate when no one is minding "we follow the money that follows the money folks...." -- all the best and best of years ahead...
NYSE:RIG
by senyor
17
RIG (weekly)Rig weekly chart is at your disposal. You can see that this index has risen sharply from the bottom of the daily channel and the bullish candles are still strong, and this indicates the interest of buyers. And also it has broken its very important resistance level and also made a pullback and is ready to continue the upward movement. We will see a good growth in this index. We expect the next resistance level to be the minimum growth , which we have drawn in white.
NYSE:RIGShort
by currenceland
2
CL WTI Crude Oil - Getting In Sync With The Market MakersIn late July I made a call that oil's actual target in the imminent term is not $100+, but actually a 3 or a 4-handle. Oil - A New Long Leg Down Soon Begins I believe that this long term analysis is still correct. However, price action has shown that the target was finally the daily gap at $85 and was achieved last week. Thus far in some 7 weeks of trading, oil has only gained $9. I likewise believe that before Natural Gas goes on its next bull run, it's going to violently abuse the longs with a raid under $1.8 NatGas - No Moon Until Doom But with current price action, we may get a false breakout over $3.1 before that can happen. A pump in energy and metals in September would be congruent with the thesis that equities are going to have a very red September as a setup into a Q4 that takes out the highs, which I outline here on the Nasdaq ES Futures: Nasdaq Futures - Are You Prepared For Red September? But the problem for retail traders is everyone is "practical" and believes that we're going straight up from where we are. It's a new bull market, some guy who works for some big bank and is tasked with engineering liquidity for high net worth clients and funds, told social and establishment media. Equity bulls need to give their head a shake, though. And so do energy bulls. With the U.S. being net short hundreds of millions of barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and the Fed reiterating that interest rates simply are not going to be cut until there's an international economic crash, the "long" trade only exists insofar as riding the wave that is intended to kill long term funds who are net short. If the scheme really is to rally like it's a new paradigm into Q4 and create a Bump and Run and then blow the world economy away in 2024 ahead of the next U.S. election, which Joe Biden will win because Donald Trump will die in prison, then there are significant risks. It's just like Burning Man where they decided to do a ritual sacrifice to the Azov cult in Ukraine and were met with a flood and rainbows and now are trapped in 6 inches of their own urine and feces and alkaline mud. What I mean by the above is that the best laid plans of mice and men always go awry, and this should be obvious to anyone who understands the situation in China with even a modicum of sobriety. Unfortunately, the people who understand China with a modicum of sobriety are almost nobody. Xi Jinping is an idiot who is still holding onto the Chinese Communist Party, the most murderous and worthless regime in all of human history. While Xi has never participated in the persecution of Falun Dafa's 100 million practitioners, which was started July 20, 1999 by former Chairman Jiang Zemin, and has even been killing the Jiang Faction as his real target in the Anti-Corruption Campaign, Xi is still the head of the CCP. When the CCP falls, Xi will fall with it and be impugned as responsible for all of the Party's sins in all of history. And this means that in the process of the CCP falling, Xi may show a glint of intelligence and wisdom and overthrow the Party himself, Gorbachev style, using the persecution as a weapon to protect the real China from being taken over by the International Rules Based Order that uses Taiwan as a proxy. What all of this means for energy and equities and really everything else is significant gap downs are ahead in the markets, and are likely to come at prices that are high but not that high. This is because if significant problems in China emerge and go viral on social media that Party West's propaganda machine are unable to suppress, it will disrupt the plan, and all of those long positions that are set to sell at high prices will turn around and start market dumping. This means you'll wake up one morning and see that SPY and QQQ are down 12% on market open, and this time, unlike COVID, you aren't seeing daily reversals for mitigation. Everyone will just be open selling to get into USD cash to run for their lives. Nobody will be around to maintain the bots, and every market will look like a cryptocurrency memecoin. So here's the trade on oil. We may see an immediate reversal at $85, where we are now. But I think the real target is $95, which will take out that effective daily bar double top printed in November of last year. That will draw in all the $100 call moonboys, since energy bulls are even more irrational than goldbugs. And they'll expire worthless as we head into the $40s to end the year while Apple prints $220 and Tesla prints $420 and NVDIA prints $480 (lolAIbulls). So if you want a trade heading into September, maybe we get a retrace to $82 on oil. Consider going long with a stop under the $77.60~ low. Sell at $95. Look for big dumps and go short on the retrace and hold into February for a $30 candle. Then get long for January '25 printing $150+.
NYMEX:CL1!
by LordWrymouth
Oil - A New Long Leg Down Soon BeginsThe oil markets have been something of a puzzle to everyone on account of the fact that they range sideways for long periods of time, move a little bit, decapitate one side of the market, and then range again. One thing I've been sure of is that after doing $120 post-Ukraine War, and after WTI literally hitting $0.00 ( $-40 settlements lol) this certainly was not the top. And yet the problem is, this retrace has gone on for too long, with any and every rally increasingly being melted away and melted away. So it's not bullish, either. There's major geopolitical problems right now. One for the oil long is that because Russian oil is banned from the market by the International Rules Based Order, it doesn't mean that demand increased for futures-traded oil. Like, futures oil is primarily the United States' domain, and you know the leftists in Washington are short hard on oil because they sold off the SPR. How it works is you ban Russian oil from the futures controlled markets. The catch is that Russia still sells oil and sellers always have buyers. It means Russia sells at a discount or sells in exchange for rupees and yuan instead of petrodollars. Which means that demand from smaller countries and even bigger producers moves away from futures-traded oil and into Russia's pockets, which ultimately drives the price of commodities down. Geopolitically, because of the problems between Mainland China, its current ruler Xi Jinping, and the IRBO who operates via Taiwan as a proxy, anything can happen at any time. China is the biggest wildcard in the world because it's the only 5,000 year old country, has an enormous population with exceptional natural resources, and is ruled by a Communist Party that has become exceedingly inferior and weak. What this means is that the CCP can either fall or be overthrown literally any day. You won't hear it's going to happen days before on CNN and from The Washington Post. It will happen during Beijing business hours, which means the middle of the night in Manhattan. And if Xi is smart, he'll throw the Party away himself and weaponize the 24-year persecution and organ harvesting genocide against Falun Dafa in order to protect himself and the country from "War With Taiwan," which really and always has meant the IRBO trying to take control of China via Taiwan Ukraine Maidan Revolution-style. Since this event is in the cards, if it unfolds, it means we'll see $200 oil and in a big hurry. Really, in a big hurry. But before this happens, it only makes sense to melt down all the early longs and liquidate some funds first. I have an open call on Taiwan Semiconductor where I believe this company, because of the Taiwan situation, is a super strong long hedge in the upcoming markets: TSM - Taiwan, Your Semiconductor Long Hedge So, here's the call. All we have to do is look at the yearly candles and we can see that last year's price action was something of a yearly wick play. And so if we take this logic and we expect that after taking the high wicks, the low wicks are next, we wind up with some clarity on a set of monthly candles that is otherwise nigh indiscernible. Unfortunately for bulls, that means we're looking at prices that start with a 3-handle. Nobody ever believes it when you make a call like this, unless it happens to unfold right away. And while these markets might manifest in a faster way in the coming months, oil is still something of a landslide down and tractor pull up kind of market maker who employs sharp shakeouts along the way. Here's the thing: The OPEC production cut news in April was a canary in the coalmine, only because the rally was clearly a stop raid and failed. The May dump afterwards was a bearish harbinger of doom. It confirms the market makers are seeking continuously lower prices on higher time frames. On monthly bars and with recent price action, the $62~ level is supposed to be "support." But this support is likely to be broken if this rally fails. I believe this rally will certainly fail and we are about to have an extremely significant optimal short entry at roughly $79. If the theory is true, see how fast $61 comes. And after $61 is broken, perhaps it will actually be a breakaway runaway. If that really happens, then the targets are 3-handles in the $34 and $36 range. You better believe it.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by LordWrymouth
15
NatGas - No Moon Until DoomIn mid June, I had made a call that Natural Gas was about to rally, because price action and timing supported a move upwards. Natural Gas - The Girl Who Hopes You Remember Her But that call became abandoned as I enlightened and improved further, and began to note that rallies were sold off and lows kept being taken. The trade degenerated into looking at a sweep over $3 and then a sweep over $2.9, and turned into abandonment. Before we go far, I want to tell you that you need to keep your eyes on the situation with China. The first thing you notice is that the propaganda machine and politicians are rarely going after "the Chinese Communist Party" but are always going after "China." This is very strange. China is the world's only 5,000 year country and holds the largest population. If you think about it even a little bit, the CCP would be so easy to topple, wouldn't it? Considering the Party has killed a magnitude more of its own people in its century of murder than Hitler did among all races during his years of insanity. And the CCP and former Chairman Jiang Zemin have the 24-year persecution and organ harvesting genocide against the Falun Dafa spiritual practice hanging over their head like the blade of a guillotine. You have to keep this in mind and go study it. A really crucial part of the puzzle is that Xi Jinping, for all the criticism and targeting he gets/deserves, has never persecuted Falun Gong. Instead, Xi's Anti-Corruption Campaign has been killing and ruining the Jiang Faction minions who have conducted and operated the persecution. Xi has even protected Falun Gong in Hong Kong after fortifying his rule there with the National Security Law following the 2019 Heaven Will Eliminate the CCP protests. All of this matters very much to the fossil fuels industry because there's a relationship between China and Russia, both in terms of production and demand, that changes greatly if something like the Ukraine War ends or drama over Taiwan suddenly enters nuclear brinkmanship. Looking at current monthly bars, Natural Gas shows some kind of "Bear Flag." What you're seeing, really, is an extended consolidation. This is actually potentially really bullish, to the upside, but we need price action to confirm it's time to go. Unfortunately, July did not show us this. The sweep of the $2 point and the lows in April was not enough to springboard the move, and that's really telling. While many may tell you that natural gas is obviously going to a zero-handle, a look at the yearly bars shows such a thesis really does not make sense. To the contrary, the 2020 pivot should, actually, hold. A classic super long term breakout and retrace. Moreover, $10 was printed for literally one day in 2022, and that's very strange. The problem with the moon turning full right now, is shown on 3 month candles, where this current little red blip only has one month left. This is not a bullish continuation. It's important, in a bullish scenario, to see volume come in and price action to correspondingly reflect that producers want to sell at higher prices and will orca the waves for us normal people. Moreover, in terms of the overall markets, as I post in this week's SPX call, we may be watching the equities/indexes bear market rally top for real. SPX - The Sound of a Shattering Iceberg As for what might be the news driver that harbingers the correction, it may very well be one of the 10 largest banks in America dumping for whatever reason emerges (watch out for commercial real estate): Charles Schwab - The Harbinger Of The Next Crisis? I also posted last week that it seems to me oil is about to head for a literal 3-handle. Oil - A New Long Leg Down Soon Begins And because we have problems with "Taiwan," which is to say the International Rules Based Order's desire to take over China via Taiwan while the Chinese Communist Party falls, I also believe that Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) is set up as a probable long hedge through to the end of the year and into 2024: TSM - Taiwan, Your Semiconductor Long Hedge Now, in terms of natural gas ranging like it has, sharply dumping, and then beginning a new and major bull impulse, this is not without grounds, for this would be a fractal of the 2020 COVID dump-to-recovery play that saw a doubling into year end: If this were to play out, we'd see something like $1.60 natural gas into $4.8 by the end of the year or Q1 2024. After that, we may really see prices that exceed $10 and begin to flirt with all time highs at $15. The fundamental factors that would cause a 10 bagger on a commodity that literally equates to most of the world's electricity production are fairly significant. Especially considering "climate change" (lol "climate boiling") is attempting to be used as the pretext/excuse to export the Jiang-CCP Zero COVID social credit system worldwide in a way that far exceeds what was done during the pandemic. And so for the call, I would say the "short signal" with the markets hanging out in thin air at present, while we're about to begin a new quarterly shift, is a break of the $2.4 level. You'd want to short that break with a target meaningfully under $1.8 and then cover it without getting greedy. At that point, it's time to look for longs, and if you're a long term position trader, this may be one of the best opportunities you'll come across. But it may not really unfold until next year. And this assumes that my analysis is correct. Right now, daily price action is just showing failure swings, but nobody has stepped in yet to give it the push down the stairs it really needs.
NYMEX:NG1!
by LordWrymouth
32
XOM Exxon - Spring Coiled Or Hanging By A Thread?Every time the price of oil goes up, there's a group of bulls that are sure they're catching the train to $150. I mean, I do think oil will go to $150, and there has to be a bottom that comes first, so there's that. But with fossil fuels and energy producers it seems the pumps are rare, the consolidations are frequent, and the dumps are more common. In two recent calls, I suggest that oil may actually be on its way to a 3-handle Oil - A New Long Leg Down Soon Begins This particular thesis is at something of its inflection point. All the way to $85 would not be surprising, nor would it invalidate the short trade. But here we chop in the $80s. For Natgas, in a recent call, I suggest that price needs to raid $1.6~ before the rocket mission to $10 can commence NatGas - No Moon Until Doom Natty has rallied fairly meaningfully in the last few days, and it may even actually finally punch out $3. But if it can't continue from there, the idea may still be correct. A big tell that something isn't right in the bull thesis for Exxon is that after the highs were swept in April at $119~, everyone long over $111 has remained trapped ever since, with price not following oil's recent $20 rally. Now for Exxon, something that's really notable is that the CEO recently bought himself some 650,000 shares for $69 million. This makes many people believe that new highs simply have to be coming. When we look at monthly candles, we can see we're "flagging" above the old All Time High, there's no indication that it's a reversal, and yet, for three months, there is no reversal. On the weekly, last week's price action gave the appearance that it's finally time, but it may have just been a stop sweep over the range high. It's notable oil is pumping, but Exxon is not, despite its stellar earnings report. An important thing to note about Exxon is next dividends ex-date is August 15 and the payout is 91 cents a share. The CEO will pick up some $591,000+ in cold cash mitigating his position. It's also worth noting that when it comes to insider buys, they aren't necessarily indicative that price is going to go up before it goes down. The man may have understood he could make more than the 5% he can earn in the money market by buying Exxon and loaning the shares out to short sellers, combined with dividend payments, over the next year, for example. The most rational place for Exxon to correct to, if it were to correct, is the $68 level. There are a lot of geopolitical risks right now with China, the Chinese Communist Party, Xi Jinping, and the CCP and the Jiang Zemin faction's 24-year persecution and organ harvesting genocide against Falun Gong. This is really the biggest piece of the puzzle that you need to educate yourself with, but establishment media doesn't talk about it. All of this directly impacts the oil market. And the War in Ukraine impacts the oil market, because if the War is called off then Russian oil is going to flow worldwide again and amount to a big time supply increase. Things can change any time.
NYSE:XOM
by LordWrymouth
RIG: At a crossroads, time to decideRIG recently broke out of its bull flag. However, since then oil prices have fallen sharply, creating selling pressure for RIG. RIG successfully defended the breakout yesterday when oil prices were down 4%, but RIG has another test ahead of it today as oil has fallen another 3%. In my opinion, the downside risk from here is minimal, but the upside is tremendous, creating a highly favorable r/r setup. If RIG is unable to defend the breakout today, I expect the stock will retest the lower trendline around $5.30, which I expect will provide strong support. However, if RIG is able to maintain the breakout even after oil falls 7% in 2 days, that would be a tremendous show of strength. I think it could go either way right now, 50/50, but I think the bullish interpretation is the highest probability at this time. It is possible that this stock could reach $20/share over the next 6-12 months.
NYSE:RIG
by TomDaSpankEngine
WTI Crude - Step 1) $88 --> Step 2) $58.When it comes to oil, it was supposed to do the super moon back to $120 thing when Xi Jinping and his Chinese Communist Party finally stopped welding people in their homes and going full blown technocratic social credit while humans tried to "fight" Wuhan Pneumonia (COVID-19), but for one reason or another, the pump never got off the ground. Probably because a whole lot more than the 87,468 people Xi and his CCP claim to have died from the disease are actually dead, and so demand is just legit in the toilet and industry can't get going, because China has big time problems stemming from its 23-year-long persecution of Falun Gong, which includes the unprecedented crime of live organ harvesting (they've done it to Uyghurs too), and the Party's outright fetish for human rights, freedom of speech, and freedom of belief abuses. Being bullish on "China" is a totally separate thing from being bullish on "the Chinese Communist Party." One is extremely wise, while the other is totally moronic. Totalitarian regimes never last a long time, and the Party has already had more than a century. Clinging to Marxism is like clinging to the Titanic when it's 5/6ths of the way under the water. When it comes to WTI oil, both the fundamentals and the price action are strange. This is a commodity that you don't want to be very bearish on after it traded at literally $0 during 2020's western COVID pseudopandemic theatre hysterics. Yet, while oil also isn't liking to go down, it isn't liking to go up. In October, I had a pretty accurate call that WTI would plink the $70 range. WTI Crude Oil / CL1 - Accumulation Before Global Conflict And a pretty good call in September too when everyone was convinced oil could never trade low again WTI Crude / CL - An Intervention: Saving Blind Bulls But the ultimate endgame of the calls, $50, has not manifested. It seems as if perhaps these prices won't manifest, and it's almost time for the uppy. There's some problems with this narrative, however. The key factor is that the United States and its vassal states (including Canada) are the world's largest producers of oil, by far. Russia and OPEC combined are really the only challengers, but the US has the advantage in that you need the USD to buy oil, and so ultimately the Biden Administration is the legit market maker. The problem with the bull thesis is that the SPR was filled at $29.70 over the years while Biden and friends sold half of it off in the $80s and $90s. This inherently tells you not that they're trying to destroy themselves, but just that they're short on crude oil. The news in December, right after oil wicked the $70 mark, was that the Biden Admin was buying it all back . But then in January, the tune changed as the US Government said "The bids didn't come in low enough, so we haven't bought yet." Media says they want to buy around $70. And this brings us to our very strange price action in WTI. Crude has a gap at $85-86 and combines with a Dec. 1 pivot around $83, while recent trading activity was a triple top of successive lows at $82~. Then we dumped to $72, but did not make a new low, and have since bounced back to $80. All of this combines to give us no reason to believe that a hybrid short-killer/breakout trader-crusher play is not about to be made around the $88 level. This gives us 10% to the upside, which is really quite nice to work with when WTI trades 1,000 barrel lots and you also have access to the leveraged ETFs like UCO and SCO. But the bottom is not in. Look at the weekly candles. Oil just hasn't retested the long-term trendline from late 2021, and in combination with the US Government having been unwilling to refill the SPR at $75+, should give you all the reason in the world to be extra cautious with going long as more than a scalp. Under $60 **combining** with media chatter that Democrats are refilling the SPR is where you want to go long. And if you do it right, you'll get the bottom for what will quickly turn into $180. 2023 is going to be a wild year starting in July. If humanity makes it to 2024, it will be even more of a ride. TL;DR: Long to $88 --> Short to $55, and start treating Bloomberg's Javier Blass like Jim Cramer. Trade against the narrative. Be patient. It's too early for the next moon, yet $120 in '22 was no top. This should combine with natural gas being on the cusp of pumping: Natural Gas? More Like Natural Go. 4-Handle Coming Be careful, and trade safe.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by LordWrymouth
6
WTI Crude Oil / CL1 - Accumulation Before Global ConflictA lot of fundamentals say that oil should be going up. A lot of Twitteratti and furus say that oil should be going up. Yet, it's not. Oil hasn't been bullish since literally June . The only reason sentiment is still confusedly bullish like this is because WTI isn't (yet) trading like bonds. People say that OPEC+ cutting production was some kind of battle with Washington and that the Biden Administration are doing some green energy nonsense saboteuring the country by selling off the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), because Joe Biden is senile. That's not what's happening. Are you high? The United States is going to endanger its energy reserves while it's in a war with Russia? Don't be fooled by appearances. You need to start exercising critical thinking. In my view, what has transpired is pretty simple: 1. The Biden Administration said they would refill the SPR at $80 2. When WTI fell to $76, instead of refilling it, they sold more of the SPR 3. They keep selling more of the SPR on this bounce at $80 and 90 4. The average price the SPR was filled at, the last time I looked, was $60 So why did OPEC+ cut production? Because they're smart money and they realized the United States is short on oil. The U.S. and its vassals (including Canada) are by far the largest producers of oil in the world. It's their market, especially while Russia is out of the picture, and whoever makes the market sets the price. So OPEC+ understands that oil is going down and cuts production accordingly. When the Biden Administration refills the SPR, that's the bottom, WTI will bounce hard, and OPEC will increase production again. This is a lot of words to tell you that oil is going to make new lows, not new highs. This call that I made at the beginning of September is still definitely in play. WTI Crude / CL - An Intervention: Saving Blind Bulls There are some really important factors to look at in the longer timeframe charts. Consider that we're almost all the way through October and yet WTI, while it's in a bearish market shift, has not made a monthly low: This is even more obvious on the Weekly, where a gap is revealed: This ~$80 January gap range has now been traded extensively but has not produced the requisite re-continuation of a bull run needed, which means that lower prices are on the way. The reason is, $120 was not the top. A big number like $180 or $220 is incoming, probably in 2023, but before then comes manipulation and accumulation, frankly speaking, probably in the $50 range. Whether bulls want to hear that or not or want to believe that or not, that's how it goes. Not very many people believed Natural Gas was going to go from $10 to $4.9 either, but it did. Natural Gas / NG - It's Officially a Bear. Now, Hold My Beer The big wild card right now is actually not the conflict between the Russian Federation and NATO/Washington via Ukraine as a proxy. Even less is it whether the Federal Reserve keeps clowning around with interest rates. Xi Jinping was just crowned leader of the notorious Chinese Communist Party for an unprecedented third term and has consolidated the Politburo with only his own people. But more concerningly, the man who should be fulfilling his historic role to collapse the CCP from within a la Gorbachev instead was quoted by ABC as having made communism and the deteriorating CCP "absolutely central to China's development and future." This amounts to an abject disaster in Xi Jinping's life, a disaster for the Chinese people, and a disaster for the human race. If man won't do something about the problem of the Chinese Communist Party and its campaign of organ harvesting Falun Gong, then Heaven will. The CCP may or may not attack Taiwan. That's a major wildcard in this call. Personally, I don't think the Party has enough stability while being sacked by Wuhan Pneumonia and hit by economic problems to really dare do it. Yet, the more imminent a possible attack on Taiwan is, or the more imminent a major escalation with Russia is, the more violently the US oil market makers will dump WTI/Brent to where they want it to be so they can accumulate and refill the SPR. How you want to trade it and what you want to do is up to you. But I believe we see a number like $89 on WTI this week and I intend to go long on bear ETFs with a target under $50 imminent by January. Oil is something that is going to make a violent and impressive new high, but those cowboys are not going to let early money and dumb money come along for the ride particularly easily. Be careful. Humanity has officially entered the most dangerous moment, and at a period where we're already in the proverbial "Triple Overtime." What you believe can happen and what is actually happening, in reality, are often two different things.
NYMEX:CL1!
by LordWrymouth
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