Riotblockchain
Bullish Continuation > $BTC $RIOTEarnings on the horizon, there's a lack of confidence here..
Don't forget the meteoric rise during Q4 of 2020 (165% Gain Alone).
We can see we are still in an uptrend.
We can see rejection off 20 Day EMA.
We can see neutral RSI, and potentially bullish Stochastic RSI.
Bitcoin is also doing well this week, and will have a strong April, as we are entering a new quarter and the end of quarter rebalancing for funds will ease.
The only risk on the charts is a potential Inverted Adam & Eve formation (double top), although, I'm not certain it's valid given the 22% difference from the initial peak.
028. PIGGISH PLAY - Short Riot Blockchain, Inc. (RIOT)Simply put, RIOT's share price is mostly a function of the price changes in Bitcoin and the price changes in the Nasdaq. Thus, if it appears that both of these asset classes are breaking down technically, it follows that RIOT will do the same, but in a synergistically bearish way. The correlations displayed at the bottom of the chart speak to this conjecture.
Technically speaking, both RIOT and BTC appear to be completing terminal impulses in the Wave 5 position (on the primary/cycle scale), as we speak. The implications of such a completion are near-immediate retests into the Wave 2 area of the same degree. Hence, the rules of wave principle are guiding this trade with additional certainty. Plus, it is a fantasy to think that this company could stay aloft for much longer regardless of the underlying structural conditions of either BTC or NDX.
Now then, onto the Pig Specs for option selection.
Pig Specs:
Buy PUTS: (Expiration: 4/1/2021; Strike: 60)
Entry: Wait for an hourly close below 60.00/share and then launch the contracts specified above. The relative discount of going out of the money is not worth the additional risk of getting there in this case, IMO.
Exit: I would make this a quick trade and profit all once the share price hits 45.18.
I foresee actual riots forming in the streets once the stock market starts the heavy selling process. If I could, I would short those too.
The moral of the story is to always short riots.
-PissedOffPig
NASDAQ:RIOT
COINBASE:BTCUSD
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
CURRENCYCOM:US100
TVC:NDX
TVC:IXIC
Short-Midterm outlook for upward progressionNews has never been better for BTC!
Between banks and hedge funds adding it to their portfolios, many digital payment services adding it, credit/debit cards planning to transact with it, companies adding it to their asset sheet, Kevin O'Leary & Elon Musk (+ other celebs) tweeting about it, and of course more stimulus money.
I'm guessing we'll see some major growth and all the signs I've looked at seem to agree. We'll see what happens these next few weeks.
Cheers and don't forget to like!
RIOT Critical Update!IOT has been trending in this parabolic wedge for over a month, and a retest of support seems imminent. Not only would it fill the gap created overnight, but it would also create a hard floor, something we very much need. RIOT will break out of this wedge by the end of the month and I am expecting this to result in a retest of the $80 highs set in February.
CRYPTO - RIOT - The Wyckoff MethodWyckoff Method Application:
Hello everyone, DPT here. I love analysis, and I love to learn about and trade using theories and frameworks Dow Theory, Elliot Wave Theory, Action Reaction, and others, as I develop my own methodology... Today, I spotted a very good fit for the Wyckoff Method for a trade setup, and I wanted to share this with you. There are a few steps omitted, but I included the article which I used as reference so you can follow along, or use it as a template for your own trades. This is not financial advice, just an informational!
5 Step Approach to the Market:
1. Determine the present position and probable future trend of the market.
- Currently swinging bearish:
2. Select stocks in harmony with the trend.
- RIOT is known to follow BTCUSD, as it is a BTC miner!
3. Select stocks with a “cause” that equals or exceeds your minimum objective.
- I have high conviction that BTC is (a) on a downtrend with more downside, (b) RIOT has yet to price this in.
4. Determine the stocks' readiness to move.
- TA Oscillators and Moving Averages show that the stock is ready for a move to the downside.
5. Time your commitment with a turn in the stock market index.
- I have high conviction that the stock market index will also see downside in the nearest future:
Three Wyckoff Laws:
1. The law of supply and demand determines the price direction.
2. The law of cause and effect. (BTC and stock market downtrend, yet to fully be realized by RIOT).
3. The law of effort.
Analyses of Trading Ranges:
- Trading ranges (TRs) are places where the previous trend (up or down) has been halted and there is relative equilibrium between supply and demand. Institutions and other large professional interests prepare for their next bull (or bear) campaign as they accumulate (or distribute) shares within the TR.
Wyckoff Schematics:
- A successful Wyckoff analyst must be able to anticipate and correctly judge the direction and magnitude of the move out of a TR. Fortunately, Wyckoff offers time-tested guidelines for identifying and delineating the phases and events within a TR, which, in turn, provide the basis for estimating price targets in the subsequent trend.
Nine Buying/Selling Tests:
FYI - I won't be using a P&F chart.
1. Upside objective accomplished. ✔️
2. Activity bearish (volume decreases on rallies and increases on reactions). ✔️
3. Preliminary supply, buying climax. ✔️
4. Stock weaker than the market (that is, more responsive than the market on reactions and sluggish on rallies). Stock did not make new high, when BTC made a new ATH! ✔️
5. Upward stride broken (that is, support line or uptrend line penetrated). Currently in the beginning of a descending scallop (scythe) pattern, clearly breaking uptrend line. ✔️
6. Lower highs. ✔️
7. Lower lows. ✔️
8. Crown forming (lateral movement). ✔️
9. Estimated downside profit potential is at least three times the risk for if the initial stop-order were hit. ✔️
STRATEGY:
- Entry: 63
- SL: 87
- TP1: 47
- TP2: 38
- PT: 23
- RRR: 1.71
- Timeframe: 45d
- TRIGGER:
1. Confirmed rejection at this resistance.
2. BTC continued downtrend.
3. Increasing sell pressure.
“…all the fluctuations in the market and in all the various stocks should be studied as if they were the result of one man’s operations. Let us call him the Composite Man, who, in theory, sits behind the scenes and manipulates the stocks to your disadvantage if you do not understand the game as he plays it; and to your great profit if you do understand it.” (The Richard D. Wyckoff Course in Stock Market Science and Technique, section 9, p. 1-2)
As always, if you enjoy this post, please Like, Follow, Leave a message... GLHF!
- DPT
Bull Flag pattern on RIOTTextbook bull flag developing on Riot Blockchain. A daily close today above $52 is a confirmed breakout. Next week the breakout is at $42.
Target for the pattern is (high - low of the flag) + the breakout point. $79.50 - $16.75 = $62.75. If confirmed this week = 62.75 +52 = $114.75 price target. If next week $104.75
Market Selloff stabs RIOTI've been sitting on the sidelines, thought $40 was a good buy point and got back in some. Went down to $34, looks like that zone bottoms at $33. If it breaks below that level who knows where the bottom is, $27, $21 then $14 worst case scenario. We do have to consider market conditions on this selloff, its a bloodbath out there right now. I'm long RIOT from here, I think its oversold at this level.
RIOT for 2/22We need to hold above $68 tomorrow. Bullish long term but it looks like RIOT is finding its place. BTC hit new highs over the weekend and I think a key level on it is $56700 vs $78 RIOT. We might have an interesting open, I'm looking for a rise in BTC above $57k to add here if RIOT gets above $78. RIOT right now is figuring out its place, the short term holds are the ones that will bail on any weakness. If BTC isnt strong we will have some chop tomorrow. I like the 58-60 zone to add more right now. Towards close of trading if it holds above $68, I might add if the market overall isnt a selloff.
So Sideways day: No change
Holds above $68: Add some
Above $78 and hold at any point: Add some
Below $58: Short term bearish
This is being posted before after hours trading opens. If we get a run up overnight with BTC, look for a selloff on the open back to fridays closing price and watch for a move back up. Stay away from options expiring this friday unless you are confidently day trading. Give yourself a couple weeks or more on any positions, from this price level up is a longer term play. There could be more pullback possible!
RIOT Long Term AnalysisSo I've been watching BTC for the past two years now and from my experience seeing how it moves, I have nothing bad to say about where it's heading. And with the continuous adoption of crypto payments by different financial companies such as Mastercard, and newly acquired TSLA stake, I think the accumulation phase is still underway.
Aside from this, my favorite sympathy play to BTC would have to be RIOT . Not only is the name catchy, but the fact that it has just 6 employees catches my eye. I hear a lot about MARA yet they only have 3!! I like the fact that it also has 11.55% Held by Institution over MARA's minuscule 5.46%. This tells me RIOT 's more invested. Could be because they have double the employees, but either way, it's a win-win.
Sitting at a shallow 4.13 B, the current MKT Cap is nothing compared to upside potential. To put things into perspective, CHWY, a pet food company was acquired for 3.35 billion back in 2017. It now has a market cap of 47.8 B just 4 years later.
To conclude my thesis on RIOT , I'll finish off with a tweet made by Elon Musk yesterday:
" To be clear, I am *not* an investor, I am an engineer. I don’t even own any publicly traded stock besides Tesla.
However, when fiat currency has negative real interest, only a fool wouldn’t look elsewhere.
Bitcoin is almost as bs as fiat money. The key word is 'almost'. "
The real crypto investment lies elsewhere. That's for me to know, and you to find out ;)
h pattern and my green box from earlierUpdate before close, an h pattern has formed. If this breaks that 58-60 zone box, I'm bailing on this. Be very careful what happens overnight here. Pull in your size, there is no guarantee on a short here but aside from the bearish market and tape on the stock today, the following 2 things I observed:
a. RIOT has decoupled from BTCs price reads - BTC is not significantly down at all but RIOT is.
b. The h pattern is a pretty reliable stock/forex pattern for a bearish turn over. I'm not going to trade it until it breaks $58, perhaps it could be too late by morning anyway. The only reason I'm not going short is because the market itself has had a down day overall, so we might just pick back up with business as usual tomorrow.
Be careful overnight. If you long on it, hedge your position some here. Pull in size if you are able to.
SOS-did you buy too high -what to do next ? SOS
So let's talk technicals :
The stock shot up 263% (red trend line) in 6 days. It did it in 2 waves of impulse.
The stock got massively dumped on the 17th of Feb – this is a big drop in a 2-hour time frame with over 50% retraced. Not a good behavior of an asset with a catalyst on it as it looks like a pump and dump which is not the case but traders took it as a flip!
Correction on the drop of 50% up from 10.5$ to 13$ -then stock lost traction several dojis in a row.
Guess what comes after several dojis in a row – a drop😊 that’s usually the case if you have an igniting bar followed by Dojis.
The stock touched below 10 – notice 10.5 is a KEY number on this trade!
Volume of entry is bigger than the volume of exit meaning the cycle is completed and now we wait to see where the second cycle takes us (opening volume vs closing volume)
RSI showing more room on the downside on 1H meaning on a 4H we are on the mid of the RSI level
What's the play?
Simple :
If the stock crosses 10.5 below and hits 9 this could be a convergence level where the stock will slowly travel downwards…. We must watch out for 10.5 level and 9 levels!
on the Other hand, if the stock bounces off the 10.5 to the 11.5 line and CROSSES it – we are good to go to the previous high at 16$ and potentially get a new higher high.
Notice accumulation is needed above 11.5 so we may get a side trend on that level before we go to the 16$
Volume Analysis :
3-month average: 23.5M
1-month average volume: 48M
Volume that drove the first wave up 70M
Volume that drove the price down 60M (good means we still have a lot of traders in on this one)
Current volume: appx 10M -keep an eye if crosses 30M we may get another wave up
FDGT will wait to see whats the stocks next move and if we get 11.5$ + we may jump in
Please do your own DD on the stock and trade safe!
We expect a correction on BTC soon that may correlate with the stock
Trade safe and be safe
FDGT the traders union
RIOT PullbackLooks like we've established to volume zones. I dont want to go as far as to say they are Support though. The green box is where we found buyers in the hard selloff today on unemployment news. What does unemployment have to do with crypto or a company with 7 employees? Well I'm sure you know the answer to that. It also looks like we've decoupled RIOTs price level from BTC because the crypto price is back up near all time highs and RIOT has sold off and is trailing now.
Personally I bought the dip and went net long. I pulled back the long positions to a lower price point and moved one out to next weeks expiry.
RIOT Volume and price actionThe volume of the first day this thing started to move a week ago vs today, its higher. The selloff this morning while BTC was staying steady spooked me a little bit so I sold off my LEAPS and a few calls that were already in a profit. Going forward, I'm just going to go with more of a neutral strategy, expecting that one day where we get a big selloff. With the current price action and volume though, it might not come. We do have to expect it though and not give back the majority of our gains.
This is my strategy until something changes:
Put and Call side Back ratios:
Sell 1 Put at the money, 2 at a distance away where I can either do it for no cost or a small credit. Same thing on the Call side.
The risk on this strategy is if the stock doesnt move the $10 a day. Essentially i will end up with one extra call or put in the direction of the movement. Opening of the next trading day, I'll make adjustments, if it keeps going in a direction I can eventually buy back the short calls/puts and have free ones to cover retracement. I'll cover the in the money spreads as needed and re-establish
At this point I'm still long on it until it stops going up!
RIOT STOCK IDEA I've been following the trend since it was around $38 - $40,
and I even profit from it, but unfortunately, I sold the shares
I bought at $45, not knowing the stock was going to get to this point.
I could have made more than $200 out of putting $300!
I am pretty sure, it will bounce back down tomorrow to start the new
uptrend coming up which will most likely get to $65 or more!
How much further up? I pulled in some size, I have no idea where the top is on this. I reduced some size locking in some gains and buying much further out options for the long term. I'm actually considering to sell naked puts at the $35-40 level hoping to get assigned. Would'nt mind at all buying some discount shares at that level. Long term there is some growth here, could a pull back come? One thing that could prevent it is constant news of companies jumping onboard with Bitcoin. If we get major players announcing on a daily basis there is no stopping any of this from going up.
Take some profits off the table here and save some bullets for later. If it pulls back for even 1 or 2 days the break would make the move stronger and build some support underneath the current level. I like this stock