BTC Parabolic Rise|Correction?Volume Climax and Key Resistance Hello Traders !
Quick Update on Bitcoin!
What a move for BTC from its critical support zone (noted on previous chart)! Price is now trading around major resistance; will a correction be more probable from here or a continuation of the parabolic trend?
Points to consider
- Trend still parabolic
- Testing major structural resistance
- Local resistance at .236 Fibonacci level
- Stochastics topping out
- RSI in overbought territory
- EMA’s yet to meet price
- Volume climax
BTC has had an insane parabolic rise with extreme bull volume taking out key resistance levels, negating the overall market structure…
Price is now testing structural resistance, now potential support if bulls are able to hold this level successfully; this will more likely then confirm a continuation. Local resistance is in confluence with the .236 Fibonacci level, sellers are looking very strong above that area due to the long wicks.
The Stochastics is currently topping out, no real clear direction as it can stay in upper region for an extended period of time. RSI is quite overbought; a correction will help cool it off.
EMA’s are yet to meet price, it must hold price as support to confirm a continuation of the trend, however it does have a long distance to meet price. We also have an extreme volume climax bar, which signals that, a temporary top maybe in for bitcoin…
Overall, IMO, a correction may be more probable, but it’s too early to tell, we need price to mature a little more. Consolidation in the orange box will allow the indicators to cool off and confirm support of a key level. However if this level breaks, then we are more to test the .6181 Fibonacci level.
What are your thoughts?
Please leave a like a comment,
And remember,
It does not matter how slowly you go as long as you do not stop.”Confucius
RISE
RISE or FALL!? Big Movements to be made!So we can see Bitcoin forming a potential head and shoulders, very clear! At the same time it is also following a nice trend support line and Bullish Symmetric Triangle.
BEARISH: If Bitcoin drops below the trend support line i will be very bearish as it heads for my minor support zone at the 0.618 Fib at roughly the $10000 mark. Breaking this support zone will see as crashing to the major support zone i have outlined at the point 0.786 fib at around $8900 before bouncing.
BULLISH: If Bitcoin respects the support trend line and Bullish Symmetric Triangle you can find us retesting the new resistance levels at around $12441 which in my opinion shouldn't be too hard to break.
GOODLUCK my friends :)
Aus -
Comparison of parabolic moves in BitcoinGiven the recent parabolic move in Bitcoin, I thought I would take a look at previous parabolic moves.
Disclaimer: The below is by no means an exact calculation, but more some things I noticed and wanted to share. Also, the dataset is way too small to get to any exact conclusions. Also, this is my first publication ;-)
PAST
I started with identifying all the parabolic moves I could find on the daily or weekly timeframes and draw best fitting arcs (yellow A-G), making sure the arcs would only move up and right (no down or left movement allowed).
Then I added the measurements of the move up and the following maximum move down (white dashed arrows), giving me percentages. Now, the markets are not exact, so these measurements should me looked at in a rough way.
What I first noticed, was that the bigger the parabolic movement up, the bigger the crash afterwards (percentage wise). Let's see if we can more details on that.
First, I looked at A and B. They are very similar in the up move (200 vs 250%), and also quite similar in the down move (50-55% respectively). Let's just say for simplicity that a 250% parabolic up move results in a 55% down move.
Then I looked at C and D. Very similar up moves (roughly around 2000%), and very similar down moves (roughly 85%).
Now we get to E: the move up is only about half of A or B, and also the down move is less: about 40%. So, if the up move is twice as big (120 vs 250%), the down move is only about 15 percentage points bigger (40 vs 55%).
Did I already mention that these numbers are not exact, and that I'm rounding them a lot? ;-)
Now let's compare C & D with A & B: An up move of about 8x bigger (250 vs 2000%), results in a down move that is 30% percentage points bigger (85 vs 55%).
Now, I looked at F, the mother of all bull markets in BTC. This curve show an increase of roughly 5500%, more than 2.5 times the increase of C & D. We don't know what the full down move is, since we're not sure the bear market is over. Now for simplicity's sake, let's just assume it is 2x the increase (way off, but this is just to illustrate an idea).
So:
E: 1x up move = -40%
A & B: 2x up move = -55% (-15% extra)
C & D: 16x up move = -85% (-30% extra; 8x compared with A & B, 16x compared with E)
F: 32x up move = ?
Now, looking at the above, one would conclude that the drop after F is probably larger than the drop after C or D, because the up move is also bigger. How much? Well, it's not linear and it has to be less than 100%, so let's see what we can find.
I decided to plot the few datapoints we have in a graph, drawn by hand ;) To me, it looks like a parabolic curve, although more datapoints would be better.
PRESENT AND FUTURE
As you can see in the graph, the projection for the drop of our parabolic F move hardly fits on the graph, but the estimated drop would be something like 90-95%. I drew some orange arrows in the chart from the top of F to 1830 and 1360 levels, and those ended up being 90-93%, both likely targets (long term). We already dropped 84% to the 3000 area, which was also an area of support.
Now we have started another parabolic move from 3k upwards, and as of writing we are at the 11k level. So far that is a 260% move up. Where will this move end? I decided to draw a best fit trend line (magenta) from 2012 through 2017 and right through the point where we dropped from 6k to 3k. Right now we are very close to this trend line and I think this will be big resistance, just like the diagonal trendline (in red) was when we got to 20k. If this magenta trend line happens to be the top of this parabolic move, and comparing with the previous parabolic moves, I expect a drop of about 55%. Targets of 6k (50%) and 5k (60%) are likely support areas here.
Now what will happen in the future... nobody knows, but based on the parabolic curves I can see at least a bullish and a bearish scenario, assuming that we can't break the magenta trend line:
BULLISH
We drop about 55% from around the 11k level and stay above the green supporting trend line. This could set us up for another parabolic move, just like we got a big move F after E. This could take us to 250-500k bitcoin in a couple of years.
BEARISH
We drop about 55% from about the current 11k level and eventually drop below the green support line. I think it is then very likely we go to 1800-1300 levels and we'll have some more bear market for some years to come.
If we happen to drop 85% from the current parabolic move (G) we end up at the 90-95% target for curve F (but that doesn't fit the idea).
The Dax price is ready to fall ? not yet The Dax price is testing the resistance at 11980 points. Technically it is very likely that this will be violated on the upside, making this very short-term uptrend continue until the next static resistance set at around 12170 points. From here the analysts expect a physiological retracement that should make the support area between the levels 11740 and 11530 points retested. This movement should end in a dozen sessions, so upon reaching the threshold 12170 we will recommend a short market entry with the first target on the static support set at 11740. This scenario is supported above all by the trend of the American index: even the short-term rallies, will undergo a drop that will also bring down European stock exchanges. The fundamentals support this immediate bullish phase, while in the medium term we will have to evaluate the decisions of the central banks when the minutes on their monetary policies will be published in the coming days. Being already positioned on the upside on the SP500, we will not enter the market even on the German index, but we will position ourselves on it when we believe that the conditions for a descent have occurred.
Make American stock market rise again Something is moving
American index are still in this uptrend that we have exploited in past sessions by positioning ourselves on a long trade. So far, the SP500 price is reaching its resistance area around 2820 points: from here it is very likely that an important retracement can start if the price does not breach this key level and confirm its breakdown.
Toward the highest (?)
If the static resistance does not yield, SP500 will try to retest the dynamic support identified by the EMA20 on weekly periods, passing around the area near the 2715 points; if the rise in the indexes should continue, the target that SP500 will point will be in the 2936 area, toward the highest historical price. In any case we will wait to reach the 2820 points before entering the market.
BTT Bias back to Long!!Update on my last analysis
Fundamentals:
On February 21st, Binance launched a trading competition on BTT, which may have a high impact on it's trading volume.
This news invalidated the short term part of me previous analysis, as it's a high impact news that comes from outside the realm of Technical Analysis.
The immediate impact of the news sent BTT's price straight back at the Descending Trendline.
Mid/Long Term Bias remains the same.
Unless the market in general sees significant bearish moves, I still believe BTT is set to keep rising as it's freshly out.
The Binance trading competition also provides over normal trading volume, helping the price to go up.
Technicals:
We have not breached through, retested and rejected the Descending Trendline.
This plus the fact that we never even retested the bottom of our triangle (The Ascending Trendline) leads me to believe that we have power bullish pressure on BTT right now.
I am personally Bullish on BTT as of now, most likely until the Binance BTT Trading Competition ends.
Overall:
Short Term Bias: Long
Mid/Long Term Bias: Long
**This is not financial advice. Do your own due diligence.
NZD/USD: nice and easy trade Technical Analysis
The price is back to test the main dynamic support on daily TF, or the EMA200 periods that passes about 0.68. A few millimeters higher there is another key support, the static one identified by 61.8% of the Fibonacci retracement: a price rebound would make a bullish scenario for investors.
Macroeconomic Analysis
This scenario is also confirmed in the fundamental, as it is very probable that until the end of March/April the US dollar may suffer devaluations following the decision of the Fed: the restrictive monetary policy that they announced at the beginning of 2018 will stop until a clear improvement in the US economy will not be noticed.
Our target
The first target we expect to achieve is the one in area 0.695, where is located the resistance identified by 50% of the Fibonacci retracement.
Hang Seng: it's time tu rise The price
The price is back above the EMA200 on daily time frame after 9 months of downtrend. In fact, since the index has scored new absolute highs above 33000 points, the price has started to fall until the support around 24500 points and from here it has restarted.
Technical analysis
Technically the price is now above the new dynamic support (identified by the EMA200) and from the static one formed by 38.2% of the Fibonacci retracement, respectively at the price of 27400 and 27700 points approximately: until the price remains above these levels , this index will tend to be lateral/bullish with target on the resistance placed at 30,000 points. If both supports yield, it will test again the area of 24000 points.
Our forecast
In the very short term it is very likely that the rising of price is the most valuable hypothesis, in line with the other main global indices. The returns to the bearish side is expected on the second quarter/half of 2019 when the markets will again be affected by the restrictive policies of the banks plants.
Silver: clear scenario !The main target
As seen on the gold analysis, the price has begun an uptrend that will continue at least in the short/medium term. The very short term target is the resistance identified by the EMA200 weekly and it is set at around $ 17: if the formed support on the 78.6% of the Fibonacci retracement ($ 16.25) should not yield in the case of a retest, within a few sessions the price will be in the channel between 16.8 and 17.5 $.
Bullish vs Bearish
The main trend (on weekly and monthly tf) is still bearish but tends to reach the key resistance; in the daily it has already reversed. In any case, influenced by the global macroeconomic scenario, this asset is destined to reach new highs for the period.
BITCOIN still trending down! Short term day traders should observe the rectangle range we've been trading in since the 24th, after the sudden drop. I have drawn the bear flag that has setup this pattern. Now, after 3 touches on bottom and 2 on top, it seems we have a partial rise. That is good news for the bears as this typically indicates a breakout of the pattern is impending. As part of the bear flag, this would give us a Target of 3435, which correlates with the support from December 18th.
My previous charts have shown what appeared to be an inverse head and shoulders pattern forming. At this point at 3750, we are very close to the bottom valley of the right shoulder I have drawn. (see pic below). So if the bear flag is the dominant pattern here (and since we are still in the bear market, that would be true), this would end up invalidating the Inverse Head and Shoulders.
However, to give the Bulls some hope, this could still be a part of the Elliott Wave correction ABC waves from another chart I made (pic below). Albeit, if the price does drop to the 3434 level, that is quite a bit deeper correction than originally estimated, but still altogether possible, as long as it doesn't completely retrace to the original low of 3135.
In summary, there are 3 possibilites:
1) Bear Flag takes us down to 3435, and then continue trending downward from there.
2) Bear Flag takes us down to 3435, and then the Elliott Wave retrace ends, and we begin Wave 3 bull impulse upward
3) We don't breakout of the bear flag, the retrace and the Higher Low is already printed, and we complete the Inverse head and shoulders pattern, with a future breakout upward.
I'd give a 60% chance of option 1 at this point. 20% for option 2 and 20% for option 3. Be careful!
See previous analyses and pics below.
Have a Great Day!
How to really make moneyDoes anyone really believe that XRP is going away??? Lets face it; there may be several other notable altcoins out there, but in coingape's daily patchwork there was ONE green crypto , and it was Ripple.
The article went on to conduct a poll, and 13% more people would want XRP than Bitcoin in ten years.
Bitcoin has , along with many other cryptos, disappointed time and time again. F.o.m.o. earned it's own acronym , and fat cats got wealthy.
YOU can too. Buy XRP and either HOLD it or do not succumb to bad psychology and short it. If enough people treat this surprisingly robust and arguably useful currency with the respect it deserves, returns that make the Bitcoin boom seem small are possible.
Lets say it goes to 5.00 , or 50.00 , or even 500, and you have THOUSANDS around because you bought in when it was still a $0.51 crypto.
It's not just an idea, it's the cure for f.o.m.o. that many of us have all been too distracted to see while we chase down bitcoin , try to profit after exchange fee's trading in narrow channels, actually hoping for the next crash so you can buy more of what was a great idea , but also the FIRST idea.
Sometimes it can take a while to get things right.
XRP is the equivalent of a car 10 generations new, not brand new. The bugs and kinks are worked out.
This morning it broke free of an ascending pattern , and did so upward. Every time it does so , the signals portend long term upward movement. HAVE F.O.M.O.? BUY RIPPLE SOON , before it multiplies less in your hands bought later as the price steadily goes up, and people who stocked up now laugh at the notion that something they bought for fifty cents in large quantities can be peeled off, one at a time , as a supply of money - a STORE OF INCREASING VALUE.
This is my opinion but I am hardly alone. Last night on CNBC africa's crypto show, the journalist said of bitcoin , BCH , and the Craig Wright situation , "dump your BCH and BTC and put all of your money into XRP."
THAT is a profound statement. Lets be part of something profound. Digital currency will inevitably follow digital commerce , but perhaps not the way people once thought.
Make room for a new generation of crypto whales.
**opinion**
Remember , fortune favors the brave. Fortis fortuna adiuvat.
Caveat Emptor.
Veracyte Stock (VCYT) on the Rise, Just Hit 52-Week Highs MarkFrom a Technical Analysis point of view, our (Mstardom Finance) proprietary trading strategy told us that the moving average accumulated over a month’s time for VCYT is $11.54. So, we should buy the stock when it falls below $11.54 preferably when it falls anywhere between $8.85 and 11.54.
On the other hand, our proprietary trading tool told us that we should sell the stock when it gets close to the $14.32 level or above. Don’t be greedy, though. Traders don’t have to wait until the price hits the $14.32 target before taking profits. Traders can take profit at any price point that is close.
In fact, anywhere between $14.32 and $17.00 is a good take-profit point for VCYT because if Traders don't take profit along this range, They run the risk of losing out on a profit-taking opportunity and run the risk of having the stock fall back down toward its moving average. A stock will always revert back to its moving average or mean within a certain time. This is called mean reversion; look it up. It is a very important concept in institutional trading.
I will be releasing a book on institutional trading in a few months; this book will help the retail trader trade like the professional traders who trade for investment banks, mutual funds, and hedge funds.
Keep in mind that the stock VCYT will continue to rise with a steady moving-average-increase to the upside with the occasional short-term pullback. This stock is a good stock to buy the dips and sell the highs on. At a later date, we will probably write another technical analysis article on this stock. Click here for the full article which include Fundamental Analysis and confirmatory information on why the stock has hit new 52-Week Highs.
HTZ 10% rise?Can it pull a quickie? Can it pull up to the 20 ema before the earnings kicks it back down? Can I reach enlightenment? Ehh let's find out!
Bitcoin BTC - Futures Affecting BTC Whats Next? H&S That's What.Bitcoin BTC
Sorry for long hiatus, not being synced to the BTC market at the time, I thought it better to post nothing at all then attempts.
Simple analogy : Retail Investment, why HODL, trade but don't hold:
Stay strong people, When BTC was $20000, simply, the financial nature of the economy wouldn't allow that many millionaire's (statement related to inflated prices, BTC/ALTS trades, not $$$ trades) since then Alt coins have also diluted the market, taking $$$ away from traditional cryptocurrency's hence adding additional downward pressure to the BTC price. Therefore when weak hands are purged from the market....or more succinctly there money being taken through losses, the profit margin/manipulation will end & result in a stable, more resilient coin. This will allow the tech to catch up with the speculation...or crypto winter again, has tech improved since 2013?, you be the judge. Would like to see product innovation to reassure coin burnt investors, why to trade price speculation again. End of year Bitcoin, Bulletproof adoption/Lighting network.
Futures:
Weekly although turning +ive, not an issue really as the Daily/Hourly have more influence in current market environment. Both times this month, reversals have been initialised without sustained volume/strength but sharp inclines resulting in lower highs also within this timespan (black circles) This could show a lower support is needed for potential reversal. Futures impacting BTC price due simply to the fact that retail investors currently are in the minority. First Cboe traders selling BTC (10/06/18, $7600-$6100) to settle before expiry XBT contracts & hence re-buying after (14/06/18, $6100-$6900). CME was second with BTCM8 selling (22/06/18, $6800-$6000) & hence have re-bought (29/07/18, $5900-$6800), currently we see Cboe being sold off slowly to cover contract losses....do we expect to see BTC price rise after Cboe XBTN8 July 14/18th or weaken as the market unable to sustain shorts at this support level. Answer will come in what you believe drives the market : manipulation, futures, price speculation, proof of work eg projects.
Current Market:
RSI: Oversold @25 which aligns with previous price reversal attempts. Double bottoms have been the trend with slight fluidity between them. Could be slight dip before the rise satisfying both trend & H&S.
Volume: Max volume recorded @$6130 (vol per period) on the drop, showing support for the Right Shoulder incline.
Interesting volume on the monthly shows consistent downwards gradient & "volume precedes trend", not a good sign.
Ichi: Showing support level @$6300, merge of $6500-$6150 levels on lower time frames. If broken, this will provide resistance against the rebound as below, support is harder to find.
ShortsVSLongs show the market expecting a rise as longs have 2:1 on shorts, this trend preceded jump in price on many previous occasions.......except 1 :)
Overall:
Coming week will be important for Bitcoin (seem to say that every couple weeks) as CME/Cboe Futures are within a week of each other resulting in larger push & pull between traders.
BTC Volume continual decline, Low Highs/High lows, all point to downward trend continuing Mid-term, as would like to see reversal price spike with reason behind it or solid bottom to instill confidence/stop manipulated shorting.
Short term reversal seems to be on the cards or at least support on the price drop. Again if traders feel risk after the initial spike in price.....low high/high low we are back to the grindstone.
BTC is seeing some tough times , so I should write this:
***Education Purposes only***
Rise to $7,700 -- And What's NextEither we'll have enough buy pressure to breakout of the downtrend/descending wedge, OR, we'll move down to $5,500 before rebounding to meet the trend line.
If we fail to break out of the trend at $6,400, which I don't believe we would fail, we'll fall out of the descending wedge to $4,800 and $3,000.
With lower volume comes more oblique angles in the reversals of price. These means less momentum/pressure to both the up and down side. The first reversal line is almost vertical, the second at a 45 degree and the third even more shallow. We can expect the pattern to continue for the next waves. For this current wave, the resistances and fibonacci line up well with each other. Elliot waves can tell a rather predictable climb up, assuming things go well. Finally, if volume doesn't kick this reversal beyond the down trend line, we'll see $5,800 and $5,500 as new bottom targets as we reach the bottom of the descending wedge.
BITCOIN TECH ANALYSIS NEXT COUPLE DAYSWill stabilize for a bit and will go bullish or bearish. (More likely to be bearish)
Watch area of relative stability and look at trend using different analysis strategies (I'll be doing that too so follow or something to see a future update)
Trend shld finalize in a couple dayes!