Get started

RISE

BTC Parabolic Rise|Correction?Volume Climax and Key Resistance Hello Traders ! Quick Update on Bitcoin! What a move for BTC from its critical support zone (noted on previous chart)! Price is now trading around major resistance; will a correction be more probable from here or a continuation of the parabolic trend? Points to consider - Trend still parabolic - Testing major structural resistance - Local resistance at .236 Fibonacci level - Stochastics topping out - RSI in overbought territory - EMA’s yet to meet price - Volume climax BTC has had an insane parabolic rise with extreme bull volume taking out key resistance levels, negating the overall market structure… Price is now testing structural resistance, now potential support if bulls are able to hold this level successfully; this will more likely then confirm a continuation. Local resistance is in confluence with the .236 Fibonacci level, sellers are looking very strong above that area due to the long wicks. The Stochastics is currently topping out, no real clear direction as it can stay in upper region for an extended period of time. RSI is quite overbought; a correction will help cool it off. EMA’s are yet to meet price, it must hold price as support to confirm a continuation of the trend, however it does have a long distance to meet price. We also have an extreme volume climax bar, which signals that, a temporary top maybe in for bitcoin… Overall, IMO, a correction may be more probable, but it’s too early to tell, we need price to mature a little more. Consolidation in the orange box will allow the indicators to cool off and confirm support of a key level. However if this level breaks, then we are more to test the .6181 Fibonacci level. What are your thoughts? Please leave a like a comment, And remember, It does not matter how slowly you go as long as you do not stop.”Confucius
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by AzizKhanZamani
2
RISE or FALL!? Big Movements to be made!So we can see Bitcoin forming a potential head and shoulders, very clear! At the same time it is also following a nice trend support line and Bullish Symmetric Triangle. BEARISH: If Bitcoin drops below the trend support line i will be very bearish as it heads for my minor support zone at the 0.618 Fib at roughly the $10000 mark. Breaking this support zone will see as crashing to the major support zone i have outlined at the point 0.786 fib at around $8900 before bouncing. BULLISH: If Bitcoin respects the support trend line and Bullish Symmetric Triangle you can find us retesting the new resistance levels at around $12441 which in my opinion shouldn't be too hard to break. GOODLUCK my friends :) Aus -
by activeaus
Comparison of parabolic moves in BitcoinGiven the recent parabolic move in Bitcoin, I thought I would take a look at previous parabolic moves. Disclaimer: The below is by no means an exact calculation, but more some things I noticed and wanted to share. Also, the dataset is way too small to get to any exact conclusions. Also, this is my first publication ;-) PAST I started with identifying all the parabolic moves I could find on the daily or weekly timeframes and draw best fitting arcs (yellow A-G), making sure the arcs would only move up and right (no down or left movement allowed). Then I added the measurements of the move up and the following maximum move down (white dashed arrows), giving me percentages. Now, the markets are not exact, so these measurements should me looked at in a rough way. What I first noticed, was that the bigger the parabolic movement up, the bigger the crash afterwards (percentage wise). Let's see if we can more details on that. First, I looked at A and B. They are very similar in the up move (200 vs 250%), and also quite similar in the down move (50-55% respectively). Let's just say for simplicity that a 250% parabolic up move results in a 55% down move. Then I looked at C and D. Very similar up moves (roughly around 2000%), and very similar down moves (roughly 85%). Now we get to E: the move up is only about half of A or B, and also the down move is less: about 40%. So, if the up move is twice as big (120 vs 250%), the down move is only about 15 percentage points bigger (40 vs 55%). Did I already mention that these numbers are not exact, and that I'm rounding them a lot? ;-) Now let's compare C & D with A & B: An up move of about 8x bigger (250 vs 2000%), results in a down move that is 30% percentage points bigger (85 vs 55%). Now, I looked at F, the mother of all bull markets in BTC. This curve show an increase of roughly 5500%, more than 2.5 times the increase of C & D. We don't know what the full down move is, since we're not sure the bear market is over. Now for simplicity's sake, let's just assume it is 2x the increase (way off, but this is just to illustrate an idea). So: E: 1x up move = -40% A & B: 2x up move = -55% (-15% extra) C & D: 16x up move = -85% (-30% extra; 8x compared with A & B, 16x compared with E) F: 32x up move = ? Now, looking at the above, one would conclude that the drop after F is probably larger than the drop after C or D, because the up move is also bigger. How much? Well, it's not linear and it has to be less than 100%, so let's see what we can find. I decided to plot the few datapoints we have in a graph, drawn by hand ;) To me, it looks like a parabolic curve, although more datapoints would be better. PRESENT AND FUTURE As you can see in the graph, the projection for the drop of our parabolic F move hardly fits on the graph, but the estimated drop would be something like 90-95%. I drew some orange arrows in the chart from the top of F to 1830 and 1360 levels, and those ended up being 90-93%, both likely targets (long term). We already dropped 84% to the 3000 area, which was also an area of support. Now we have started another parabolic move from 3k upwards, and as of writing we are at the 11k level. So far that is a 260% move up. Where will this move end? I decided to draw a best fit trend line (magenta) from 2012 through 2017 and right through the point where we dropped from 6k to 3k. Right now we are very close to this trend line and I think this will be big resistance, just like the diagonal trendline (in red) was when we got to 20k. If this magenta trend line happens to be the top of this parabolic move, and comparing with the previous parabolic moves, I expect a drop of about 55%. Targets of 6k (50%) and 5k (60%) are likely support areas here. Now what will happen in the future... nobody knows, but based on the parabolic curves I can see at least a bullish and a bearish scenario, assuming that we can't break the magenta trend line: BULLISH We drop about 55% from around the 11k level and stay above the green supporting trend line. This could set us up for another parabolic move, just like we got a big move F after E. This could take us to 250-500k bitcoin in a couple of years. BEARISH We drop about 55% from about the current 11k level and eventually drop below the green support line. I think it is then very likely we go to 1800-1300 levels and we'll have some more bear market for some years to come. If we happen to drop 85% from the current parabolic move (G) we end up at the 90-95% target for curve F (but that doesn't fit the idea).
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by sandervdberg
1
The Dax price is ready to fall ? not yet The Dax price is testing the resistance at 11980 points. Technically it is very likely that this will be violated on the upside, making this very short-term uptrend continue until the next static resistance set at around 12170 points. From here the analysts expect a physiological retracement that should make the support area between the levels 11740 and 11530 points retested. This movement should end in a dozen sessions, so upon reaching the threshold 12170 we will recommend a short market entry with the first target on the static support set at 11740. This scenario is supported above all by the trend of the American index: even the short-term rallies, will undergo a drop that will also bring down European stock exchanges. The fundamentals support this immediate bullish phase, while in the medium term we will have to evaluate the decisions of the central banks when the minutes on their monetary policies will be published in the coming days. Being already positioned on the upside on the SP500, we will not enter the market even on the German index, but we will position ourselves on it when we believe that the conditions for a descent have occurred.
XETR:DAXLong
by BFCMInvest
Make American stock market rise again Something is moving American index are still in this uptrend that we have exploited in past sessions by positioning ourselves on a long trade. So far, the SP500 price is reaching its resistance area around 2820 points: from here it is very likely that an important retracement can start if the price does not breach this key level and confirm its breakdown. Toward the highest (?) If the static resistance does not yield, SP500 will try to retest the dynamic support identified by the EMA20 on weekly periods, passing around the area near the 2715 points; if the rise in the indexes should continue, the target that SP500 will point will be in the 2936 area, toward the highest historical price. In any case we will wait to reach the 2820 points before entering the market.
SP:SPXLong
by BFCMInvest
BTT Bias back to Long!!Update on my last analysis Fundamentals: On February 21st, Binance launched a trading competition on BTT, which may have a high impact on it's trading volume. This news invalidated the short term part of me previous analysis, as it's a high impact news that comes from outside the realm of Technical Analysis. The immediate impact of the news sent BTT's price straight back at the Descending Trendline. Mid/Long Term Bias remains the same. Unless the market in general sees significant bearish moves, I still believe BTT is set to keep rising as it's freshly out. The Binance trading competition also provides over normal trading volume, helping the price to go up. Technicals: We have not breached through, retested and rejected the Descending Trendline. This plus the fact that we never even retested the bottom of our triangle (The Ascending Trendline) leads me to believe that we have power bullish pressure on BTT right now. I am personally Bullish on BTT as of now, most likely until the Binance BTT Trading Competition ends. Overall: Short Term Bias: Long Mid/Long Term Bias: Long **This is not financial advice. Do your own due diligence.
BLong
by TheWiseGentlemen
1
NZD/USD: nice and easy trade Technical Analysis The price is back to test the main dynamic support on daily TF, or the EMA200 periods that passes about 0.68. A few millimeters higher there is another key support, the static one identified by 61.8% of the Fibonacci retracement: a price rebound would make a bullish scenario for investors. Macroeconomic Analysis This scenario is also confirmed in the fundamental, as it is very probable that until the end of March/April the US dollar may suffer devaluations following the decision of the Fed: the restrictive monetary policy that they announced at the beginning of 2018 will stop until a clear improvement in the US economy will not be noticed. Our target The first target we expect to achieve is the one in area 0.695, where is located the resistance identified by 50% of the Fibonacci retracement.
Long
by BFCMInvest
Hang Seng: it's time tu rise The price The price is back above the EMA200 on daily time frame after 9 months of downtrend. In fact, since the index has scored new absolute highs above 33000 points, the price has started to fall until the support around 24500 points and from here it has restarted. Technical analysis Technically the price is now above the new dynamic support (identified by the EMA200) and from the static one formed by 38.2% of the Fibonacci retracement, respectively at the price of 27400 and 27700 points approximately: until the price remains above these levels , this index will tend to be lateral/bullish with target on the resistance placed at 30,000 points. If both supports yield, it will test again the area of 24000 points. Our forecast In the very short term it is very likely that the rising of price is the most valuable hypothesis, in line with the other main global indices. The returns to the bearish side is expected on the second quarter/half of 2019 when the markets will again be affected by the restrictive policies of the banks plants.
TVC:HSILong
by BFCMInvest
Silver: clear scenario !The main target As seen on the gold analysis, the price has begun an uptrend that will continue at least in the short/medium term. The very short term target is the resistance identified by the EMA200 weekly and it is set at around $ 17: if the formed support on the 78.6% of the Fibonacci retracement ($ 16.25) should not yield in the case of a retest, within a few sessions the price will be in the channel between 16.8 and 17.5 $. Bullish vs Bearish The main trend (on weekly and monthly tf) is still bearish but tends to reach the key resistance; in the daily it has already reversed. In any case, influenced by the global macroeconomic scenario, this asset is destined to reach new highs for the period.
TVC:SILVERLong
by BFCMInvest
BITCOIN still trending down! Short term day traders should observe the rectangle range we've been trading in since the 24th, after the sudden drop. I have drawn the bear flag that has setup this pattern. Now, after 3 touches on bottom and 2 on top, it seems we have a partial rise. That is good news for the bears as this typically indicates a breakout of the pattern is impending. As part of the bear flag, this would give us a Target of 3435, which correlates with the support from December 18th. My previous charts have shown what appeared to be an inverse head and shoulders pattern forming. At this point at 3750, we are very close to the bottom valley of the right shoulder I have drawn. (see pic below). So if the bear flag is the dominant pattern here (and since we are still in the bear market, that would be true), this would end up invalidating the Inverse Head and Shoulders. However, to give the Bulls some hope, this could still be a part of the Elliott Wave correction ABC waves from another chart I made (pic below). Albeit, if the price does drop to the 3434 level, that is quite a bit deeper correction than originally estimated, but still altogether possible, as long as it doesn't completely retrace to the original low of 3135. In summary, there are 3 possibilites: 1) Bear Flag takes us down to 3435, and then continue trending downward from there. 2) Bear Flag takes us down to 3435, and then the Elliott Wave retrace ends, and we begin Wave 3 bull impulse upward 3) We don't breakout of the bear flag, the retrace and the Higher Low is already printed, and we complete the Inverse head and shoulders pattern, with a future breakout upward. I'd give a 60% chance of option 1 at this point. 20% for option 2 and 20% for option 3. Be careful! See previous analyses and pics below. Have a Great Day!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by bluemt95