How a Housing Market Crash Equals New Stock Market HighsTraders,
I believe this chart is so important it warrants revisiting the data. Indeed, the fed has to be cognizant of this same data and is most certainly is watching it closely. Therefore, we must do the same. In this video, I am going to explain why the housing market data, even though it's week, supports my thesis of a blow-off top in the stock markets this summer.
Stew
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My Housing Market Chart:
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Risingrates
inverse H&S on weekly chart for TCBITCBI looks primed for a strong rebound as financials have a strong year with rising rates.
TCBI is a regional bank trading at a 1.22 P/B ratio. This indicates there is significant value here. Texas is fast becoming the new place to be for booming businesses such as space exploration and crypto.
Inverse Head and shoulders on the weekly along with a golden cross. Waiting for confirmation of this trend, but looks promising.
Bull Flag on HBANBullish flag formation on HBAN.
Different entry points annotated.
HBAN is trading at a 13.79x P/E ratio versus 22x @ SBNY, 19x @ SIVB, 29x @ FRC, or 15x @ RF & FITB.
The benefits from acquiring TCF bank will begin emerging over the course of the rest of this year and be in full effect in 2022.
go long HBANTCF bank began merging in to Huntington Bank after receiving shareholder approval, ticker HBAN, in March of 2021 with the intention of being completed within the year. This will put it in the top 10 regional banks and will rank 5th in 70% of deposit markets. Regional banks are set to benefit from rising rates and inflation. The cost synergies and the ability to more heavily compete with the larger regional banks should provide it a runway to longterm growth. In the meantime, while these changes take place you will collect a 3.8119% quarterly dividend and have time to accumulate shares.
"Cost synergies are anticipated to be around $490 million, or 37% of TCF Financial's non-interest expenses. Per Huntington’s expectations, the deal is likely to be 18% accretive to earnings by year-end 2022, including the fully phased-in transaction cost synergies." -yahoo finance
It has been in a period of consolidation/trading sideways but I expect it to began to break to new highs as strengths are combined and weak branches are closed. It has underperformed in comparison to the KRE which is a proxy for the overall regional banking sector. This trend should reverse.
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Rough estimates for 20% correction on the IXICDepending on where you call the start of the correction, the final 20% drop level is different.
From Peak (in blue) = 28,500
From recent low (in yellow)= 26,500
From recent floor (in red) = 25,000
When the TVC:US10Y hits 2%, the Nasdaq could see a 20% drop as they are the growthiest stocks with the most minimal dividends. DJI is the safest from the rise in rates with an average dividend yield of roughly 2.36%.
BND Trendline Warns of Future DownsideBND bounced off a critical support corresponding to November 29th, 2007, the day that yields spiked after BND dropped and miraculously regained 7.5%. We see a downward trend forming in BND indicating a tendency toward rising rates while debts and deficits continue to set record highs. If the FED is not willing to significantly debase the dollar through record levels of monetary injection, the bond market will continue to drop. We are in the danger zone here, watching the bond market is crucial to timing the coming drop.
I do not suggest going short until the following conditions are met:
1. Bond market drops considerably over any time frame (testing that critical level of pre-2008 crash or extreme velocity).
2. Stock market begins to face reality - depends on the velocity of rising rates (faster = sooner).
Bullish setup for TDShares of TD appear to be pulling back to test a breakout level at ~$53.50, which coincides with a rising channel bottom. I'm a buyer at that level and will be targeting ~$66 on the upside, or +23% from here. In a rising rate environment and given the technical setup, I expect shares to outperform over the next several months.