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Rising Wedge

SPY Continued Downside - Hidden DivergenceChart Even t: Bearish Divergences on multiple timeframes. Rising wedge pattern on 65m and lower timeframes. Confluence : Bearish Divergence on 65m timeframe. Hidden Bearish Divergence on daily timeframe. Rising Wedge pattern (bearish) on 65m and lower timeframes. MACD very wide. Volume decreasing. Death Cross moving average event occurred a few days ago. Price action is nearing old resistance levels along with the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement level. RSI overbought on 65m timeframe. Trade Idea : Put Swings Contract Suggestions (depending on Monday's open) : Best: 4/8/22 450P Riskier 4/6/22 450P Riskiest 4/1/22 450P I will likely buy both the 4/8 and the 4/1 contracts, heavily weighted to the 4/8 contracts to allow this time for this move to play out.
AMEX:SPYShort
by cloud9futures
3
BTC - DAILY - RISING WEDGE IN PROGRESS !As mentioned in my yesterday's analysis,(RSI bearish divergence), the successful breakout of the former high @ 43'492 triggered further upside move towards, as expected, a high so far above the 45'000 area, with an intraday high so far 45'137. We can see on this DAILY chart to different patterns : 1) A BROAD TRIANGLE PATTERN (currently attempting to breakout to the upside) 2) A RISING WEDGE FORMATION IN PROGRESS (potentially warning bearish signal !) What does it mean ? Well, today's closing level will may be bring more clues about the future development as the 44'800-45'000 area should be seen as an important zone to break at it represents on one hand, the downtrend line resistance of the triangle pattern previously mentioned and on the other hand the top of the rising wedge pattern in progress. Therefore, a failure to successfully breakout the 45'000 area would put again a renewed selling pressure with 42'600 as first support level, ahead of 41'250 and 40'671, the latter level being the MID BOLLINGER BAND. ON THE UPSIDE, the weekly MBB @ 45'408 will be the first resistance level to look at ahead of the top of the weekly clouds, currently @ 45'937. GLOBALLY ON A WEEKLY PICTURE, WE ARE NOT OUT OF THE WOODS YET, THE KIJUN-SEN STILL IN RESISTANCE ! IRONMAN8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
The predicted market crash... Can it get any worse? Yes!The predicted market crash... Can it get any worse? well, yes! •Short since $4731 (closed some of my shorts today)↘️🔻 written on: 19:16 Thursday, February 24th, 2022 Central European Time ( CET ) S&P 500 Index (and the entire market with it) The TA: We broke out of the rising wedge on the 18th of January. We retested the wedge as resistance on January 18th. The target price of the wedge breakout towards the downside was roughly $4111.96, which hit today. The chart has now formed a head and shoulders pattern, which we broke the neckline off today. We will probably retest the neckline. If we can't break that resistance, the Head and Shoulders is confirmed following a 3735 target. We also broke our long term trendline that we had as support since the beginning of the recovery of the 2020 covid crash (I will make a seperate idea on that one). The squeeze momentum indicator, by Lazybear just turned red and we have a bearish monthly MACD cross. •Almost every indicator suggests that we are overvalued in the long term. 94% correlation between the Nasdaq 100 in the 15 years to today, and the 15 years to 2000. The S&P500 shows a 95% correlation. We all know what happened during 2000s, the markets collapsed. shiller PE ratio is currently sitting at 34.27 on the day of writing this (the last time I updated this, it was sitting at 40.14 so it has come down a bit, but we still have a long way to go). The mean is at 16.92 and the median is at 15.87. 34.27/16.88*100≈ 203% 203-100= 103% This means that we are possibly 103% overvalued. •The warren buffet indicator is telling us that we are strongly overvalued. The indicator sits at a 195% Market value to GDP ratio. The exponential trendline suggests that a Market Value to GDP ratio of 120% to be fairly valued. We are 51% higher than the long-term trendline. (this was 71% the last time) What is going on in the world? •Russia vs Ukraine war. This is very bad news and I hope that everyone stays safe. Money is way less important then the lives of innocent people. No one wants war. The Russian index crashed 45%, before rebounding during the trading session. The indexes in Europe also got crushed, just like the s&p500. We recovered the losses in the late trading hours which is very impressive. •The number of Nasdaq stocks that have hit a 52-week low now dwarfs even that of the 2000 dot-com bubble and global financial crisis. It looks like the high multiple, tech stock bubble might have already burst. The s&p500 is just lagging behind and can go much lower then the current valuations. A ton of stocks; large or mid cap, value or growth have been absolutely devastated since I started writing about a crash: •The FED is going to increase its interest rates, because the inflation is getting out of hand. 7.5% is the highest we have seen since the 1980s. We don’t know the ammount and the number of times that they are going to increase the interest rates, but 50 pivot points in march looks realistic to me. When the interest are getting an increase, it works like an anker on the stock market. And because we have so much debt right now, this could lead to even more pain then what we have seen. You don't want a hawkish FED as your opponent. Historically, the inflation has grown slowly, but during this and last year the inflation went through the roof. •Members of congress and people in the government (clearly insiders: looking at you nancy pelosi) are not allowed to own stocks anymore very soon? Correct me if I am wrong on this one. •The Canadian real estate bubble is so big, that even the mother of all crashes can’t fix it. The composite benchmark, (a.k.a. a typical home) was $798,200 in December, up 27.8% from a year before. It is at an all-time high for both price and annual growth. betterdwelling.com Mortgage lenders are about to get destroyd. Just looking at the current market and where rates are going is a recipe for disaster. In the last few years, they had between 2-3x regular refinance volume. Leaving a large pool of borrowers who will not to refinance for at leat 3-5 years. •Mortgage rates have risen almost a full 1% in just the last 2 months, will likely raise another 1% by End Of Year. This will further slow demand. Housing market starting to show signs of cooling. Worst case scenarios is housing values drop even more which will cause cash out refinances to dry up as well. Lenders are starting to lay people off. I have heard some shops are reporting declines. •canadian tv reminding people that bank deposits are ensured. (The Royale Bank of Canada made this advertisement as well). •billionaire investors have a lot of cash ontheir hands. •Michael Burry and a ton of other famous investors predict that the markets will collapse. Warren Buffett has stopped buying new shares. Michael burry has sold his positions •Palantir warns people of a black swan event. •energy crisis in China and Europe. A lot of factory's in China are shutting down or slowing down because they have no power. This only got worse today since Russia attacked Ukraine, the oil prices peaked at $105.74. Every time that the oil prices reached prices above $100, we entered a recession after that. With the current sanctions against Russia, we can expect commodities like gas and oil to rise even further. Which could lead to even more inflation. •reverse repo has never been this high. 1,738.322 billion usd (that is more then a trillion!!!). The Fed's reverse repo facility allows big institutions - mostly big banks and money-market mutual funds - to buy securities from the Fed with an agreement to sell them back to the central bank for a specified price at a specific time. •Jpegs are getting sold for millions of dollars, which looks like the Dutch tulips bubble to me. •Prices have been sky-high in the last months for almost everything, could we be in an everything bubble? •With the old measurements, CPI / Inflation is above 15%, that is just as bad as the top in 1982 (instead of 7.5%). •fibonacci extension tells us that $4875.56 could be the end. (the top is $4818.62, for now. So I my prediction was 1.16% off) •stablecoin Tether has been in trouble for a long time. When tether crashes, everything crashes with it. 80% of BTC’s volume goes through Tether. So when Tether falls, Bitcoin falls and when Bitcoin falls, everything falls with it. •supply chain issues and shortages for almost everything. •Indexes like XRT with 1200% short interests (GME is in this index) •historic records amount of margin: When everyone is using a lot of margin in the markets, things can change very quickly for the worse, because their positions can get liquidated. If people with leveraged long-positions starts to get liquidated, more people start to get liquidated since the price has gone down even more. etc. etc. etc. (until the market has fully crashed). Not only that, retail investors are going to panic sell in such an event. the only thing that needs to happen for a trend reversal is a bad event. Like seriously, since when can retail investors use more then 100x leverage? •We printed a ton of money during the COVID-19 period. When we had the 2020 march crash, the stock market recovered insanely fast, even when the economy was falling. The recovery happened because we printed so much money to support the company's (not because the businesses were performing great). --> •The markets are not based on fundamentals anymore: 1 million+ people dead due to covid? No problem, the market goes up by 30%. Millions of people getting unemployed in the US and the rest of the world? Not a problem, the market goes up by another 30%. Businesses declaring bankruptcy? It didn't matter. we just kept on going up. Almost every business was experiencing massive losses while their stock price was skyrocketing. The money printing led to massive inflation. The supply chain issues made this even worse. We have to pay for our mistakes now. The FED has to force a recession. •Eliott waves suggest that a big crash is going to happen. We are in wave 5 in the long term chart from 2008 until now (and possibly the 100 year chart as well). So the next wave will be a market correction. "The bubble": massive credit to u/BigTechEqualsValud: www.reddit.com "It is clear stocks are in a massive bubble based on their Price to Sale (P/S valuation). Warren Buffett stated that his favorite means of valuing stock was the stock market capitalization to GDP ratio. Below is a chart for this metric. As you can see, the stock market today is as overvalued relative to the economy as it was at the peak of the 1999 Tech Mania. r/wallstreetbets - We are in Tech Bubble 2.0, but it's actually the everything bubble So stocks are overvalued based on the most reliable corporate data point (revenues) and they are also overvalued relative to the economy. Scratch that, they're not overvalued... they're trading at 1999-Tech Bubble insanity levels. This time the FED has created a bubble in everything. A "risk-free rate" of return against which ALL risk assets are valued. Comparing to 1999 tech bubble, 2008 housing market bubble, this will be considered the 2022 Digitial Currency/EV bubble. Look at the 10-20 year charts for any automotive company. It is not pretty. So what makes Rivian and LCID worth more than GM or Toyota? Nothing, since its a bubble. I will rule out Tesla on this one since we know damn well they make money, have an incredible CEO, and produce something tangible unlike these others. Tesla is still overvalued and it will go down with the digital currency/ev crash, but most likely not as hard as other competitors". •Evergrande defaulted on its debt and is now restructuring, we will have to see how that goes. But its still massively in debt and the bonds were never payed according to dr Metzler. DMSA and dr Metzler has a class action lawsuit against Evergrande to file them for bankruptcy. This •Evergrande is still one of the biggest real estate developers, but people seem to forget about this very dangerous problem. Evergrande still has to pay 305 billion USD. They haven't even paid of 1% of their debt. So who are the biggest bagholders of the $305B in bad bonds? --> There are several American and Canadian banks that Evergrande ows money to: First we've got the Royale Bank of Canada which has $46B in evergrande bonds with a Evergrande is not the only Chinese property business with huge amounts of debt. A ton of other Chinese property company’s have defaulted so far. Some of them are now bankrupt. If you were wondering why there was that weird after hours - the stock dropped 64% during AH in one day, but then they fixed the "glitch" and the price went back up. RBC looked worthless and this was just the real view of the bank's financial state when the bonds hit zero. The media told us that the bonds from November 10th were payed, however DMSA says otherwise. Dr . Metzler, the owner of DMSA bought Evergrande bonds because he had a suspicion that the bond payments were not made. So he knew he wouldn’t get his money back. He just wanted to proof his theory. So we could be being lied to (however I’m not a fan of conspiracy theory’s) THE BONDS WERE NOT PAYED!!! Conclusion: the TA looks bad and so does everything going on in the world right now. If this ends up happening it will be a fantastic buying opportunity. The S&p500 could go higher to the 5500s (which won’t happen in my opinion), but a crash is inevitable. It has already correcIf it doesn't happen this year, then it will probably happen in the next 2 years. Its a ticking time bomb. Its just a matter of time when all of this comes together and It *could* happen very, very soon. Do you really want to risk a 10-20% return when the market could fall 50% or more? You can cash out now and buy back 2x the amount of the shares after the crash. And get 2.5x the amount of shares that you could buy now. (this probably doesn’t make a lot of sense anymore. If you bought normal stocks, you are already down like 50% so it doesn’t make a lot of sense to sell with such a big loss). Buy great deals like PayPal or similair stocks that are already down more then 50%
TVC:SPXShort
by Y_Duursma
2
BTC Daily, A Quick RecapHere are the most important BTC levels for us to be watching IMO We are in a large area of resistance on the macro TF and I would really like to see BTC break up out of this rising wedge pattern and out of this large area of resistance. If we decide to break to the upside my next targets would be 50k, 55k, and 59k, I will be watching closely because if for some reason BTC could break through all this resistance (good news, economical news etc) then we could see BTC have another strong rally higher. But in saying all that we will prepare for both a bull market continuation and a bear market. I think it is very important we keep an open mind here and just be patient.
by UnknownUnicorn15302902
Terra Analyze (Short Term/Rising Wedge)!!!Tera was able to make a Rising Wedge Pattern from 43.2 until 60.5$ , also the price lost the lower line of its Rising Wedge 2 days ago. Terra Analyze ( LUNAUSDT) Timeframe 1h ⏰ I have two scenarios for the next movement of Terra . 🔅 S cenario 1 : Terra was able to pass pullback, and it will go down from 57$ . 🔅 Scenario 2 : Terra is on the pullback, and it will make Inverse Head and Shoulder Pattern . 🔴 Resistance Zones 🔴 & 🟢 Support Zones 🟢 that we have in front of Terra . 🔴 Resistance zones on Terra 's way: 🔴 Resistance zone : 58.2$ until 57.5$ (Resistance + Cluster of Fibs) 🔴 Heavy Resistance zone : 63.3$ until 60.6$ (Resistance + Cluster of Fibs +Yearly Pivot Point + Monthly Pivot Point ) 🟢 Support zones on Terra 's way: 🟢 Support zone : 53.6$ until 53.1$ (Support + Cluster of Fibs) 🟢 Heavy Support zone : 48.4$ until 46.8$ (Support + Cluster of Fibs + SMA 200(TF Daily)) Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position that you want to open). Please follow your strategy , this is just my idea, and I will be glad to see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends, Thanks, and Trade safe
by pejman_zwin
3
BTCUSDT is creating a rising wedge?Bitcoin had a bounce from our weekly support after a dump due to war, the price created a V shape. On the 4h Timeframe, the price is testing a key level on 39600 on the daily resistance on 0.5 Fibonacci level. If you look on the left you can see an accumulation before the previous bearish impulse, it means that this area is so strong to break. the previous candle created a false breakout, no bullish momentum followed the candle, and the Volume is decreasing. If we exclude the nervous candles about the war, we can identify a rising wedge. A rising wedge with two up-sloping trend lines. The volume trend usually slopes downward. How to approach? We are monitoring the price, a clear breakout of 38300 with retest should be a clear sign for a new bearish impulse, 37k is the first 4h support. The setup is invalidated if the price is going to have a breakout and retest of 42k –––– Keep in mind. 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure.
Short
by InkyGrip
12
AUDJPY H2 A good opportunity for sell !Hello traders this is my idea about audjpy H2 with price action and harmonic pattern method as you see we have a rising wedge at the end of the downtrend and the price came back from resistance line and resistance area also I think we have a harmonic pattern here that name is deep crab ( although it's not a ideal deep crab but In my opinion I can consider it as a deep crab ) so I expect a downtrend for this chart and I determined possible targets . Good luck.
Short
by Amirhosseinbahrami7899
2
GBP / CAD 1073558 + 0.18 % LONG IDEA * PRICE ACTION & STRUCTUREHEY EVERYONE HOPE EVERYONE IS DOING GOOD HAVING A GOOD ONE. NEW WEEK, NEW OPPORTUNITIES. LOOKING AT THE GBP / CAD * The PAIR has been trading in a RISING WEDGE just broke above a resistance level, retested this level somewhat now signaling continuation. - Short term the pair is currently rejecting at this structure possibly signaling continuation in momentum on the 4h chart this in a rising wedge.. - Looking for long entries on the THE POUND / CAD this week should all the rules of the formation be met. lets see how it goes IF THIS IDEA ASSISTS IN ANY OR IF YOU LIKE THIS ONE SMASH THAT LIKE BUTTON & LEAVE A COMMENT. ALWAYS APPRECIATED ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ * Kindly follow your entry rules on entries & stops. |* Some of The idea's may be predictive yet are not financial advice or signals. | *Trading plans can change at anytime reactive to the market. | * Many stars must align with the plan before executing the trade, kindly follow your rules & RISK MANAGEMENT. _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | * ENTRY & SL -KINDLY FOLLOW YOUR RULES | * RISK-MANAGEMENT | *PERIOD - SWING TRADE
Long
by PULEMokhothu