Fed/Brexit - Risk on vs Risk-off assets, convergence?? :Ssomethings not right - All time low volume too, JPY booming, Bonds rallying - low liquidity is artificially driving the market up???
The market will tank soon... the financial conditions are gonna tighten like post 2009
this bull move isnt backed by non-risk assets
in true bull markets we see 3 things 1. Low GOLD 2. LOW JPY 3. Low US Bonds
today we only see 1. Low gold.. missing the other two.
This market "confusion" is likely caused by the uncertainty regarding the Fed hike cycle and possible Brexit risks spilling over - Low volume shows people do not want to hold risk - be careful with longs here
Risk-off
MACRO VIEW: S&P500 CANCELS DOWNWARD RISKS&P 500 closed today above key level, which is the downtrend border in relation to 1-year and quarterly mean.
The level is the lower 1st standard deviation from 1-year and quarterly means aligned, now standing at 197.5
The close above cancels downward risk that was initiated during late August selloff - and if price trades above it from now on - it will likely to continue its lateral uptrend, started back in the beginning of 2013
Nice Risk Reward on U/J Well last night U/J broke below a support zone, and is now retracing , looking to go short at 118.85-.90 with a stop at 76.4% Fib. If 76.4% is broken I will be looking for long opportunities but for now U/J is still a sell for me personally. Profit target at the 161.8% extension zone. Market sentiment supports xxx/JPY shorts with US treasuries dipping below the 2% Yield rate so sentiment has definetely been risk off this week, many factors are to blame for the risk off sentiment, EU QE speculation, US rate hikes, Oil moving lower, Greece, etc. (Yen is a quote on quote safe haven currency) There is also, Japanese fundamentals supporting temporary Yen strength having to do with their year end/new year business cycle, I would go into detail on that but I have not researched it thoroughly enough to go on writing about it. Risk/Reward meets my guidelines at roughly 1:8 . There are US economic data coming out, of medium impact during today's sessions. So just a heads up to keep an eye on that. Happy trading =D