Get started

Risk

Learn Risk to Reward Ratio | Forex Trading Basics Hey traders, Planning your every trade, you should know in advance the profit that you are aiming to make and the maximum amount of money you are willing to lose. In this educational article, we will discuss risk reward ratio - the tool that is used to compare your potentials losses and profits. Let's start with an example. Imagine you see a good buying opportunity on EURUSD. You quickly identify a safe entry point, your take profit level and stop loss. From that trade you are aiming to make 100 pips with a maximum allowable loss of 50 pips. To calculate a risk to reward ratio for this trade, you simply should divide a potential gain by a potential loss: R/R ratio = 100 / 50 = 2 In that particular example, risk to reward ratio equals 2 meaning that potential gain outperform a potential loss by 2. Let's take another example. This time, you decide to short USDJPY. From a desirable entry point, you can get 75 pips with a potential loss of 150 pips. Risk to reward ratio for this trade is 75 divided by 150 or 0.5. Such a ratio means that potential loss outperform a potential gain by 2. Risk to reward ratio can be positive or negative. If the ratio is bigger than 1 it is considered to be positive meaning that a potential gain outperforms a potential loss. If the ratio is less than 1, it is called negative so that potential loss is bigger than potential risk. Knowing the average risk to reward ratio for your trades, you can objectively calculate the required win rate for keeping a positive trading performance. With R/R ratio = 0.5 2 winning trades recover 1 losing trade. You need at least 70% win rate to cover losses of your trading. With R/R ratio = 1 1 winning trade, recover 1 losing trade. You need at least 50% win rate to compensate your losses. With R/R ratio = 2 1 winning trade recovers 2 losing trades. You need at least 35% win rate to cover losses of your trading. Trading involves extremely high risk. Risk to reward ratio is a number one risk management tool for limiting your risks. Calculating that and knowing your win rate, you can objectively decide whether a trade that you are planning to take is worth taking. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
11
I would lie to you that I am very special!This is an event that has spread all over the real and virtual space these days I am better than you, more beautiful than you, smarter than you But the reality is something else But we know the truth! You and I are human, we have our merits and demerits, we all lied, we were all kind, we were both good and bad! we are equal .. With this introduction, I wanted to get here that we in the financial markets are involved with an equal scale of types of risk It means that if I am facing some risks, you are also facing almost the same risks! So, of course, if we are profitable but have a low win rate, or vice versa, we have a high win rate, but we may not be profitable in the long term. Accepting this risk is the most basic step of entering the market. I think money management and risk management are the only keys to success Our learnings about technical and fundamental analysis only play a role in reducing or increasing the risk of our trade!
Education
by HoneyCreateMoney
Consider the Long-Term ChartI'm not going to call if the bottom is in or "not so fast" but just want to point out that we may only be halfway through a significant long-term downturn. It's concerning to me that RSI has broken significantly below 50 for the first time since the market recovered from the lows in early 2009. It's also concerning that price looks like it wants to retest the 50-mo. EMA after seemingly finding support a couple months ago. There's still considerable downside risk to the 200-mo. EMA where it has found long-term support in the past and it also happens to currently line up with a double bottom with the covid panic low from early 2020. Will it go down to the 200-mo EMA now? I'm not sure, I'm just saying that it could and you need to be prepared for that. I do know that if it continues to drop it would be a blood bath down at those levels and also a great long-term buying opportunity in my opinion (it could find support above, at or below the 200-mo EMA and an interesting level would be the top from the tech bubble around 2000 which lines up with a period of sideways consolidation from 2015-2016.
NASDAQ:IXIC
by PatientContrarian
Volume of trade enterThe volume of trading in relation to your capital play an important role in emotional liabilities such greed and fear. Greed let you execute large volume with high risk Fear let you out of the market even when you have a clear setup and edge. The low volume of trading plan play an important role in attenuation of greed and fear gradually. With time you will find yourself a good player in the money game. The low volume of your trading master your plan ,execution and psychology. It help you how make money with low risk and high profit and how to catch the trend from the beginning.
FXOPEN:XAUUSD
by Antwerp_winning_trader-Maitham
Learn The HIDDEN Costs of Trading In this educational article, we will discuss the hidden costs of trading. 1 - Brokers' Commissions Trading commission is the brokers' fee for opening a trading position. Usually, it is calculated based on the size of the trade. Even though most of the traders believe that trading commissions are too low to even count them, the fact is that trading on consistent basis and opening a couple of trading positions weekly, the composite value of commissions may cut a substantial part of our profits. 2 - Education Of course, most of the trading basics can be found on the Internet absolutely for free. However, the more experienced you become, the harder it is to find the materials. So you usually should pay for the advanced training. Moreover, there is no guarantee that the course/coaching that you purchase will improve your trading, quite often traders go through multiple courses/coaching programs before they become consistently profitable. 3 - Spreads Spread is the difference between the sellers' and buyers' prices. That difference must be compensated by a trader if one wished to open a trading position. In highly liquid markets, the spreads are usually low and most of the traders ignore them. However, being similar to commissions, spreads may cut the substantial part of the overall profits. 4 - Time When you begin your trading journey, it is not possible to predict how much it will take to become a consistently profitable trader. Moreover, there is no guarantee that you will become one. One fact is true, you should spend a couple of years before you find a way to trade profitably, and as we know, the time is money. More time you sacrifice on trading, less time you have on something else. 5 - Swaps Swap is the fee you pay for transferring a position overnight. Swap is based on a difference between the interests rates of the currencies that are in a pair that you trade. Occasionally, swaps can even be positive, and you can earn on holding such positions. However, most of the time the swaps are negative and the longer you hold your trades, the more costly your trading becomes. The brokers' commissions, spreads and swaps compose a substantial cost of our trading positions. Adding into the equation the expensive learning materials and time spent on practicing, trading becomes a very expensive game to play. However, knowing in advance these hidden costs, the one can better prepare himself for a trading journey. ❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section. Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
10
Our Trading ManifestoHello everyone! In this post we will present and explain our trading system. Our trading system condensates everything we have learned from hard work, study and even harder lessons received in these years of trading. It is constantly evolving and updating, we are always ready to question some aspects of our system and research tools and strategies that can improve it. We will distinguish and explain three different aspects of which the system is composed: Analysis, Execution and Research. Analysis The analytical part concerns all the tools and the strategies that we use to formulate an hypothesis on the direction of the market, and consequently develop a trading strategy. A trading strategy is composed by: -an Invalidation Level: a price level that, if crossed, proves our hypothesis wrong. This is the limit level at which stop losses can be set. -a set of Entry Points/Levels: composed by price levels of chart points that according to our analysis can trigger the move that we are hypothesizing. -a set of Target Points/Levels: composed by price levels of chart points where the move that we are hypothesizing can end. Once a trading strategy is determined, it will be implemented in the executive part. But on what is our analysis based? Elliott Wave Theory, Pattern Trading and Sentiment Analysis. We believe that the chart encodes all the information available. News and events are priced in the market instantaneously. The fundamentals are revealed simultaneously with the price action. Any news or fundamental consideration is just one piece of the puzzle. Price is the synthesis of the result. Price moves because of mass psychological dynamics inducing people to buy and sell. These dynamics are observable in the sentiment and in the fundamentals, and manifest themselves in chart patterns. The composition of chart patterns forms Elliott Waves structures. We don't use this approach as a mix of independent tools, but in a holistic and comprehensive approach. We analyze the wave structure of the market starting from higher timeframes, assessing probabilities of different scenarios by analyzing chart patterns and using different tools related to the sentiment, such as Smart Money Indicator, Volume Profiles, Order Blocks, etc. We use the same approach in smaller timeframes to set the trading strategy (Entries, Targets and Invalidation Level). Execution The executive part of our trading system involves risk management, placing orders in the market, and managing active trades. Once we have developed a trading strategy, we have a set of entries, a set of targets and an invalidation level. We have to use them to define a Trading Plan. Here is the first rule of risk management: we can not lose more than 1.5% of the trading capital for each trading plan. You don't have to depend on one trade. One trade should not be decisive. Trading must not be funny. This is the only way to decrease your biases and your emotional involvement. So in a Trading Plan we decide how many trades to open, how much risk to allocate on each trade (NOT MORE THAN 1.5% TOTAL), at what price execute the trade, and where to set stop losses. No stop loss can be set above the invalidation level. If prices reaches the invalidation level we are OUT. No matter if prices then follows the hypothesized direction, market will always provide other opportunities. We also plan where to take profits at the pre-determined Target Levels. Research The research part of our system is our constantly updating and challenging our knowledge studying new tools, approaches, strategies. Knowledge is dynamic and always updating. You never stop learning. We will post all our analysis and trades. Stay tuned and happy trading! :)
BLACKBULL:SPX500Education
by GMR-Capital
5
Letters to a Young TraderMy dear self, I am here once again to remind you not to give up on your pursuit. Of course, it's a great one you have chosen and you need to put in the work required to get there. Many before you have walked the same path you're on today and emerged successful and you can too. There will come bad days and you'll question yourself about the path you've chosen. You'll need words of wisdom to guide you. You'll find nothing more helpful than the Bible. Make it your best friend and carry it with you at all times. It'll help you more than you'll realize. In the beginning stages of your development, everything will seem impossible to do and I want you to know it's normal to feel that way right nom. Give yourself time to grow and let experience teach you. You can't learn it in one day. You'll get it at the right time. The greatest lesson you'll learn as a developing trader is when not to do something and that will separate you from the rest of them park. Your focus right now shouldn't be everyday trading. Just because you have time to sit in front of the charts doesn't mean you should trade. Finally, you should have low expectations and allow time for your growth. Trading is a numbers game and once you learn how to manipulate the numbers, you'll find out that you don't need to do a lot to be successful. It's always a pleasure to write you. Yours; The Source Trader
CME_MINI:ESH2023Long
by thesourcetrader
1
✅TRADING ONE PAIR ONLY✅ “TO TRADE, OR NOT TO TRADE A SINGLE CURRENCY PAIR. THAT IS THE QUESTION…” 🧿MULTIPLE CURRENCY PAIRS Easier to recover from losses on a given currency pair Less likely to experience not seeing any setups for a whole day/week Better understanding of pair correlations required Can be more distracting 🧿SINGLE CURRENCY PAIR No risk of trading correlated pairs Better ability to focus Feeling of understanding the price movements more Can be a struggle to stick to ONE pair Feeling of missing out when big moves happen on other pairs ✅HOW TO TRADE SINGLE CURRENCY PAIR: 🔲Step 1: Pick Your Currency Pair ▪️Is the pair active when I intend to trade it? Even though the Foreign Exchange market is open 24/5, some pairs may be less traded at some specific times. Refer to "When To Trade Forex To Maximize Your Lifestyle & Profit?" ▪️Do you understand the currency pair you want to trade? If you trade a pair with your country's currency, your chances of understanding how the price of the pair fluctuates might be higher. You will know what's going on and might even be able to know where the currency is heading (we are talking of fundamental analysis here...). ▪️Is the pair too or not enough volatile for you? Don't be surprised to see big swings in GBP/JPY or GBP/NZD because those pairs are considered more volatile. Some traders like it because the profits usually come quickly, but stopped out trades can be more frequent.On the other hand, a pair like USD/CNY will have some inactivity periods and that might be frustrating. 🔲Step 2: Plan Your Trading Good strategies are abstract and should work on any currency pair, however, since you have decided to trade one pair only, you have the privilege of tailoring you strategy to the particular pair, taking into the account it’s volatility, average likelihood of fakeouts vs breakouts, how trending it is on average etc.. 🔲Step 3: Stay Consistent Stick to the plan for at least a month. You might start the month feeling excited. You might get discouraged because you've taken too many or too few trades two weeks in.No one cares. Stick to your decision.At the end of the month, two things will happen: 1. You'll have built more confidence in your ability to remain consistent. 2. You'll have performed an experiment and will be able to say what works vs. what doesn't. Those are two great things for someone who's looking to grow as a Forex trader. Thanks for reading bro, you are the best☺️ ✅Gimme a like and the Gods of Trading will favour you this week👍 Dear followers, let me know, what topic interests you for new educational posts?
OANDA:BTCUSDEducation
by SignalProvider
10
BZYR: Potential long term investment - with riskI've become interested in BZYR which trades only OTC at this time. Why is this OTC stock of high importance for long term investors? In order to set this out my post is broken into various parts: 1 - Introduction 2 - The historical battles 3 - Efficacy of a cancer treatment 4 - Summary 5 - The risk to reward for long term investors. The above cannot possibly avoid referring to organisations and materials in the public domain - as matters of fact and truth before the courts. Introduction: The founder has discovered a treatment for cancers that cannot be treated by conventional treatments, that is better than anything out there at this time. The research has been in the public domain for the last 30-odd years. The discovery is called Antineoplastons - which is a combination of various peptides and other 'chemicals'. Historical battles: The research evidence for efficacy has not been faulted. The FDA (in the public domain) took the founder through 4 grand juries. The case failed at the Texas State Supreme Court, in an attempt to remove the founder's medical licence. The whole story runs very deep back to the 1980s - but despite strenous efforts to shut down the treatment (and the founder), it persists to this day, through the endless legal battles. Staying within the 'House Rules' means that I am cautious not to breach. In 1982 the FDA stated " never have and never will approve a new drug to an individual but only to a large pharmaceutical firm with unlimited finances ." Therefrom sprung one of the most severe fights in FDA history. dealings with the FDA commenced in 1983 at that point the FDA commenced a civil action to try to close the clinic and stop all patients from receiving the medicine before the judge in this case. Before the judge in the 1983 court case had announced her ruling the FDA sends her a letter warning her in advance " if this court declines to grant the injunction sought by the government thus permitting continued manufacture and distribution of antineoplastons the government would then be obliged to pursue other less efficient remedies such as actions for seizure and condemnation of the drugs or criminal prosecution of individuals. " Efficacy of cancer treatment with Antineoplastons: Mainstream cancer research organisations will say " There is not enough reliable evidence to use it as a cancer treatment " or that the treatment is ' experimental '. But this is not true. If there has been an experiment, it was fully under the watch of the FDA, and the results are beyond belief for success. Double-blind randomised controlled trials in Japan have proved the superior efficacy of the treatment (which is not 100% but far better than what exists). Summary Antineoplaston treatment has weathered all battles for over 30 years. It's not going away. It's survival suggests something novel and unique has been discovered. Why is this treatment surviving at all? Why all the battles against it? Those are matters for you to ponder. The risk to reward for long term investors: The weeky chart will show that BZYR (an OTC stock) is near rock bottom and possibly in an accummulation phase. Note carefully that OTC stocks are not on conventional exchanges like NYSE and NASDAQ. The potential growth over a 5 year period could be significant in relation to a fixed risk of loss which should be an affordable one, if more research confirms it's specific kind of efficacy. This could be the next 'Amazon' of the biomedical world. As always I emphasise the risk - and I am unable to provide tips on how to manage that. Disclaimers apply.
OTC:BZYR
by Captain_Walker
Learn How to Apply a Position Size Calculator Hey traders, In this educational article, I will teach you how to apply a position size calculator and calculate a lot size for your trades depending on a desired risk. First of all, let's briefly discuss why do you need a position size calculator. Even though, most of the newbie traders trade with the fixed lot, the truth is that fixed lot trading is considered to be very risky. Depending on the trading instrument, time frame and a desired stop loss, the risks from one trade to another are constantly floating. With the constant fluctuations of losses per trade, it is very complicated to control your risks and drawdowns. A lot size calculation, however, allows you to risk the desired percentage of your capital per trade, limiting the maximum you can potentially lose. A lot size is calculated with a position size calculator. It is integrated in some trading platforms like cTrader. If it is absent in yours, there are a lot of free ones available on the internet. Step 1: Measure a pip value of your stop loss. It is the distance from your entry level to your stop loss level. In the example on the picture, the stop loss is 290 pips. Step 2: Open a position size calculator Step 3: Fill the form. Inputs: Account currency, account balance, desired risk %, stop loss in pips, currency pair. In the example, we are trading with USD account. Its value is $20000. Trading instrument is EURUSD. Step 4: Calculate a lot size The system will calculate a lot size for your trade. 0.069 standard lot in our example. Taking a trade on EURUSD with $20000 deposit and 290 pips stop loss, you will need 0.069 lot size to risk 1% of your trading account. Learn to apply a position size calculator. That is the must-use tool for a proper risk management. ❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section. Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Education
by VasilyTrader
5
MONEY MANAGEMENT: The MOST Important Aspect of TradingIf you are a professional trader or plan to become one, Money Management is your #1 job. You could be the best chart reader or statement analyzer in the world but if you have poor money management you will still fail. In order to succeed you first have to last, and to last in the trading business you must be able to handle risk and manage it accordingly. How you handle Money Management comes down to a few simple things: Risk limits - This consist of knowing your risk per trade, your max drawdown, and buying power limitations. ○ Risk per trade: This is the amount you are willing to lose if the trade goes against you and stops out (remember to always have a stop loss). Many traders refer to this as Risk Units or simply 'R'. This should be a defined amount that does not vary based on emotion. If you do use different risk for different trades you should have that clearly defined in your trading plan otherwise each trade should be the same. Risk per trade should be around 1% for experienced traders and $10 for new traders as they work towards slowly raising risk with consistency. ○ Max drawdown: This is the max amount you are able to lose per timeframe. For example, a day trader may have a max drawdown of 3R per day, 7R per week, and 13R per month. Max drawdown demands that if you lose that amount in that timeframe you are to be done trading until the next one. This helps traders from spiraling out of control and blowing up a trading account. ○ Buying Power Limitations: Knowing how many trades you are able to take at one time will help define your strategy. Expectations - This consist of knowing your expectancy and timeline ○ Expectancy: Your trade expectancy is the most important stat in all of trading. It tells you what you expect to make per trade. In order to properly manage risk you have to be sure that the strategy is worth it. The expectancy stat is how you do just that. For more info about expectancy check out my post on it here ○ Timeline: Everything takes time. Trading is no different. Having a realistic expectation about your timeline and how much you are going to make is a critical element in helping traders stay focused on their goals and not fall into a get rich quick scheme. If you expect your trading career will take 3-5 years to become profitable you will manage your money much better than someone who expects full time profits in under 1 year. Yourself - This consist of knowing your personality and trading plan ○ Personality: What is your personality like? Are you a jittery person or are you robotic. Knowing this will help build a management that you can trust and are able to follow. ○ Trading Plan: Make sure your trading plan fits your trading style. You have to take many things into consideration here such as time constraints, goals, and personality. It takes time to figure out what works for you. If you can determine how to handle these three factors then you will be well positioned to not struggle with money management. After you have the fundamentals written in your trading plan all it comes down to is staying disciplined and following the rules set for yourself. Clearly define your limits, have an expectation, know thyself. Thanks for reading, follow @Jlaing for more educational post about Money Management, Trading Stats, and more. I also stream a stock day trading chat room every morning at 9:15 EST right here on TradingView, come check it out and say what's up.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by JLaing
Equity outlook Restrictive policy and geopolitical risks raise the odds of a global recession What a difference a year makes. 2022 saw the ‘reopening’ of markets from the COVID pandemic evolve into a ‘recession’. Margaret Thatcher put it succinctly on 27 February 1981 – “The lesson is clear. Inflation devalues us all.” Monetary policy has been on the most pronounced tightening campaign in decades as inflation progressed from being transitory to potentially permanent due to the energy crisis. Politics is driving economics, not the other way around In the pre-war global economy, globalisation was an important source of low inflation. A large amount of global savings had nowhere to be deployed, rendering interest rates lower on a global basis. However, post-war, global defence spending has risen to a level not seen in decades as national security consumes government’s agendas. There will be vast opportunity costs involved, tied to the increase in world military spending. We expect the rate of globalisation to take a back seat, as Europe would never want to be as dependent on Russian energy as it is today. In a similar vein, the US does not want to fall privy to the same mistake Europe made and will aim to strengthen ties with Taiwan in order to ensure the smooth flow of chips. National security is inflationary We are in the midst of a war in Europe, owing to the brutal battle being waged by Russia in Ukraine. While the war is centred in Ukraine, the reality is we are all paying the price of this war by allowing it to continue. There is another war brewing in the background that we must not fail to ignore. The United States’ deepening ties with Taiwan is aggravating China. The Taiwan issue remains sticky. Taiwan’s role in the world economy largely existed below the radar, until it came to prominence as the semiconductor supply chain was impacted by disruptions to Taiwanese chip manufacturing. Companies in Taiwan were responsible for more than 60 percent of revenue generated by the world’s semiconductor contract manufacturers in 20201. Tensions between Taiwan and China could have a big impact on global semiconductor supply chains. The United States’ dependence on Taiwanese chip firms heightens its motivation to defend Taiwan from a Chinese attack. The desire for control of technologies, commodities, and straits is paving the way for economic wars ahead. China needs to get its house in order The economic headwinds that China faces are multifaceted. Unfortunately, policy easing from China in H1 2022 has been insufficient to arrest the extent of the slowdown. Of late, China’s State Council stepped up its economic stimulus further by announcing a 19-point stimulus package worth $146 billion (under 1% of GDP) to boost economic growth2. The property markets continue to deteriorate. The problem stems from a lack of financing among many developers that is needed for construction of their residential projects. All of this came about from the central government’s decision in 2020 to introduce the ‘three red lines’ policy to rein in excessive borrowing in the real estate sector. Vulnerable property developers are struggling to secure capital to sustain their businesses. Alongside, demand for housing has deteriorated due to intermittent COVID lockdowns, weakening economy, and doubts over developers’ ability to deliver completed housing units. However, the weakness in China’s economy extends beyond the property sector with rising unemployment and energy shortages. Chinese earnings growth since Q3 2019 has lagged the rest of the world. China has also suffered significant capital outflows, owing to its adherence to COVID-zero. This has set back its rebalancing towards a consumption-driven economy, rendering China to remain more addicted to export-led growth. However, export demand has begun to weaken as the rest of the world slows. US is in the early innings of a recession The US economy appears a safe haven amidst the ongoing energy crisis as it is less exposed to the vagaries of Russian oil supply. It also recovered faster from the pandemic compared to the rest of the world. The labour market remains strong as jobs continue to be added, wages accelerate, consumption has continued to grow (albeit more slowly), and unemployment remains at a five-decade low. Despite the recent upswing in GDP growth, caused by noise in the foreign trade numbers and technicalities in inventory data, the big picture of a slowing economy in the face of aggressive monetary tightening remains intact. There are mounting signs of slowing too, especially in the housing sector owing to the rapid rise in mortgage rates. Earnings in 2022 have reflected the challenging environment being faced by US corporates with earnings growth for companies grinding down to 3.17%3.The more value-oriented sectors such as energy, industrials, and materials continue to outperform. Looking ahead, earnings revision breadth for the S&P 500 Index are in deeply negative territory suggesting downside is coming from an earnings growth standpoint. Core inflationary pressures remain concerning, especially housing rents and medical inflation – components that are typically much stickier compared to goods and transport inflation. The stickier high services inflation reflects strong labour market dynamics as services are labour intensive and housed domestically. The Federal Reserve (Fed) appears unwilling to declare victory in its war against inflation. As we look ahead, it’s clear that the Fed’s role in quelling inflation without tipping the economy into recession will take centre stage. Harsh winter ahead for Europe Europe is heading for a recession in response to a strong external shock. Gas flows from Russia to Europe have declined substantially to 10% of their levels in 2021, causing gas prices to spike. The Russian war in Ukraine is showing no signs of abating, with Russia deciding on a partial mobilisation after a rather successful Ukrainian counter-offensive. These higher energy prices are squeezing real disposable income out of consumers and raising costs higher for corporates, causing further curtailment of output. The energy driven surge in headline inflation to 10.7% year on year4 has sent consumer confidence to a record low, leaving Europe in a bind. Fiscal policy in focus The European Union (EU) aims to define the direction and speed of Europe’s energy policy restructuring through REPowerEU strategy. However, crucial energy policy decisions have been taken by EU countries at national level. In an effort to shield European consumers from rising energy costs, EU governments have ear marked €573 billion, of which €264 billion has been set aside by Germany alone. In most European countries, both energy regulation and levies are set at the national level. The chart below illustrates the funding allocated by selected EU countries to shield households and firms from rising energy prices and their consequences on the cost of living. No pivot yet from the ECB We experienced a decade of almost no inflation and quantitative easing in Europe. We have now entered a phase in which the European Central Bank (ECB) has gone ahead with its third major policy rate5 increase in a row this year, thereby making substantial progress in withdrawing monetary policy accommodation. The ECB remains eager to have policy choices dominated by risks, rather than the base case, owing to which more rate hikes are coming. If Eurozone inflation continues surprising to the upside, the ECB will have to continue raising rates and determine when to activate the Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI) to support the periphery. We expect the ECB to take the deposit rate to 2.5% by March, as it continues to see risks to inflation tilted to the upside both in the short and long term. A tightening cycle into a slower-growth macro landscape has never been helpful for equities. European equities are faced with an extremely challenging backdrop ranging from high energy prices, growing cost pressures, negative earnings revisions estimates, and cooling growth. Amid the sell-off in equity markets in the first half of this year, European equities currently trade at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.3x, marking the steepest discount versus its long-term average of 21x compared to other major markets. The risk of a recession to a certain degree is being priced into European equity markets. Conclusion In our view, the global economy is projected to avoid a full-blown downturn; however, we expect to see a series of individual country recessions take shape at different points in time. Evident from recent data, the downturn in the US is expected in the second half of 2023 whilst the Eurozone and United Kingdom will enter a recession by Q4 this year. Contrary to the rest of the world’s key central banks, China and Japan are expected to keep monetary policy accommodative which should help buffer some of the slowdown. Given the highly uncertain environment, investors may look to consider US and Chinese equities, whilst potentially reducing weighting towards European equities. Across factors, we continue to tilt to the value, dividend, and quality factors given the expectations for weak economic growth, higher rates, and elevated inflation.
ICEUS:MWL1!
by aneekaguptaWTE
What is really up with the Funded Programs?Before we go any further, I want to state that 1) This post is NOT PROMOTING ANY prop firms/funded trader programs, 2) I do not hate or have anything against any prop firms/funded trader programs, I am just sharing my understanding from what I have read and experienced, and 3) Info here is not complete. If you choose to embark on any programs, please make sure you do your own due diligence. Traditional Prop Firm Typically refers to a group of traders that focus on buying and selling financial assets with the firm’s capital. The trader uses that firm's money to trade and in exchange receives a small wage and a large percentage of the profits. In practice, proprietary trading firms provide the capital, proprietary technology, training, coaching, and mentoring for you to become an elite trader. Funded Programs There has been an ever-increasing number of funded trader programs, marketing to retail traders about the huge profit-sharing potential (75-90%) when they become "a funded trader." And all that is required is paying for and passing an evaluation/testing period. You would pay anywhere from $84 to $184 for a $10,000 account and it could go as high as you want (almost) A trader in the evaluation/testing period would have - Profit target of 8-10% in phase 1 (typically 30 days) - Profit target of 5% in phase 2 (typically 60 days) - Daily drawdown of no more than 5% - Overall drawdown of no more than 10-12% From my experience coaching retail traders, newbie or average trader has an account size of no more than $10,000. This makes the idea of being funded to trade become really attractive, limiting the downside while almost maximizing the potential. However, there has also been a lot of negativity about these funded programs; - the evaluation and actual trading accounts are demo accounts - the company makes more money from traders failing than from profitable traders - some traders claim to have never received their payouts Are funded programs scams? Again, I have not evaluated ALL funded programs to say this, but probably not. (Do your own due diligence!) Companies running funded programs are likely just deploying a good business model, addressing a pain that most retail traders have (funding their account) and filling that gap. Should you jump into a funded program? There is a lot more information (more than discussed above) that needs to be considered before you jump in. A brief checklist: 1) Do you have a profitable trading strategy to deploy? ( if you don't have a profitable strategy, keep reading, learning & testing ) 2) Have you used it for at least a year? ( avoid using funded programs as a testing ground, it can get costly! do it on a demo or even a $1,000 account first ) 3) Does the strategy meet the max drawdown conditions? ( 5% a day, 10% total? For example, a martingale strategy is not likely to work ) 4) How likely are you to bend your trading rules? ( rules set by the programs are set in stone, a breach even by the slightest and you would have failed ) 5) Is it the right time to start? ( are markets in consolidation, on a holiday period, or super volatile with no clear trend ) Remember that the average annualized return of the S&P500 is 11.88% (1957 to 2021). Trying to make 8-10% in 30 days and then 5% in 60 days just to pass, tends to put the trader under a lot of stress. How do you perform under significant pressure? What are your views of the funded programs? Share it with me in the comments I have never thought much about the funded programs. But recently have been considering giving it a shot and live-streaming the trading process daily. Would you join me on the stream? Stay tuned, it might just happen.
SP:SPXEducation
by JinDao_Tai
2