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GOLD's long-term bearish scenario!This may seem a little radical! But first let us review what brought #Gold here. This my analysis of gold when it was ~ 1400$: That was clear that risk will push gold higher and now we reached to the target area. Albeit we had first agreement between US-China meanwhile, but on the other hand Covid-19 came into play and it even worsened their relation too. Anyway, now market seems a little baffled about whether is there any more demand left to push it higher? My answer is it doesn’t seem so. The fact is that Gold will reach higher as the long-term concerns about economical risks gets higher. There’s a point where no more new concerns come in and market becomes over-buy. Now as the concerns about long-term effects of the virus pandemic is getting lower gradually, it’s rational to think we would gradually come back to where we were in Jan, 1500$-1600$ zone. As you can see in the chart this zone is the target for two harmonics that formed recently. So, it seems that FA and TA may be consistent here. Reaching to the next bearish target needs more risk to be faded away in economic and political spheres. Now IGN sentiment indicator says that 79% of the traders are net long and open interests are declining. This is fragile and price actions could help us see if they’re really selling at the top. One significant sign would be stable price below previous ATH (that was ~1921$). Another is high volumes in this zone we are in, that almost is the case as you can see volumes are relatively high here. The two harmonic patterns are the Shark and Alt-Bat. Technically speaking gold behaves very harmonic imo. But this is a monthly chart and it’s very challenging. They may become invalid quickly if price continue to go higher and become stable above last ATH. This chart is the vision of my own algorithm in monthly TF: Targets are consistent in my own algo too but still got no bearish signal on price action. But one or two more bearish candle would do so. VP is also consistent with harmonic and fundamental target. So, all it needs is significant selling pressure. For those who trade big or with low or no leverage, R/R ratio is great. But this is not a trade advise and I recommend to do your own research. There’re bullish scenarios that I didn’t talk about here. I’ll try to update this idea with my own algorithm signals. Have best trades.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by DarkWaveHunter
5
DIS Disney in a Long-Term Correction. What's next?DIS (The Walt Disney Company) is an old favorite for many who have had it or have it in their long-term portfolios, especially with this stock's long-term history. The last 10-20 years have been some of the best for Disney with Bob Iger at the helm and the successful M&A, Creative, Movie launches and much more (Star Wars, MARVEL, New acquisition of FOX properties and much more). The upward momentum for Disney seemed like it would never end. That is, until the pandemic of 2020 proved that Disney was overexposed. Whether theme parks, movie release and launch delays and compromises, and ESPN sports covering nothing interesting for several months, the trifecta took hold and saw DIS take a 50% retracement off its high in just a few weeks. DIS proved resilient. Having already invested in the future of digital with Disney+ and bringing in a new CEO Bob Chapek to lead the new chapter of Disney, there was a glimmer of hope for Disney. Still, long-term market cycles (note my WEEKLY chart) don't recover overnight. Expect DIS to continue seeing volatility in this large consolidation pattern. One might unfortunately link the stock's performance directly to sentiment on the pandemic and any hopes for a vaccine and re-opening of the economy, especially entertainment venues and attractions which Disney is overly dependent on. DIS is a risky stock in the short to mid-term but can be a fun stock to trade while raising money to save a few shares in your long-term investment portfolio.
NYSE:DIS
by Shadowfigure
Liquidation Levels Trading FuturesI've seen lots of people getting liquidated on there longs on this BTC dump. This is why I think people never take into consideration risk management or don't know how it actually works. Maybe this can help a lot of people and help them clarify things. YES, the getting rich quick by leveraging is a probability, but if you ask me, I would consider it luck in the 25x to 100x than in lower leverage positions. I think the getting rich quick scheme in crypto or FX is never talked enough and should always be addressed with proper risk management. This analysis is considering you long your whole portfolio with leverage (which most people do). If you want to long with high leverage, use 1% or 2% of your portfolio, try it out in Isolated mode first and see what it is all about. Your losses will teach you how to be a better trader, but never ever lose your ammo in your first try. I'll do a follow up of this chart with potential gains by leveraging.
Education
by Goldenperro
LONG & SHORT POSITION TOOL📚An In-Depth Look at Using This ToolThis illustration explains the functionality of TradingView's Long/Short Position Tool and is intended to help new people looking for more information on this tool in a "novice friendly" format. TradingView’s position tool will aid you in pre-planning and pre-evaluating trades and as such should be an essential part of every trader's toolkit . Note: At its simplest, the position tool can quickly show you the R:R (Risk-To-Reward) of a single trade. By doing a little extra work, you’ll be able to then use this tool to properly plan for the risk of all trades you are taking compared to your total account size. Hit that 👍 button to show support for the content! Help the community grow by giving us a follow 🐣 ----- Important terms: Tick = A tick is a measure of the minimum upward or downward movement in price. Trade outcome statistics = Used to track the outcome of a trade. Example: “Current XYZ position closed +5.25% gain 10840 account balance after trade impact” P&L = A representation of current Profit & Loss. Be careful where you position the tool, as the P&L is calculated based on the position of the tool. Here are two uses for the Position Tool: 1. Only R:R = To quickly find only the R:R of a trade. This method does not bother changing account balance and such is only acceptable if you are tracking your current account balance and doing risk calculations off-platform in something such as a google spreadsheet. 2. Risk+R:R = To ensure your current trade idea meets both your R:R and max risk tolerance (risk amount; in our case, 1%). This is achieved by changing the “Account Size” option every time you are building a new position. This is the advised method to use, since like your trade journal, it’ll help keep you accurate and accountable. ----- We will now explain the options contained within the tool’s input on-chart menu: Account size = The current available balance within your account, the keyword here is available. If you are using the "Risk" option explained below then this needs to be updated upon starting to create a new trade setup. Risk = Your max tolerable risk amount (either in absolute numbers or as a % of your account size). The default option is "absolute numbers," this uses the base currency of the on chart asset (If you were on ETHBTC, then the base currency would be BTC; for SPX500USD it is USD since this asset is displayed in its USD value). As you know, we suggest you stick to %. Entry Price = The price you will be entering the position at. PROFIT LEVEL: Ticks = The tick difference from the entry price to the profit target. Price = The take profit price. STOP LEVEL: Ticks = The tick difference from the entry price to the stop loss. Price = The stop losses price. ----- We will now explain all metrics being displayed on the tool while it is plotted on the chart: Top info panel: 1. The difference in base currency (USD) from the entry price to the take profit price. 2. The difference in percentage change from the entry price to the take profit price. 3. The difference in ticks from the entry price to the take profit price. 4. The hypothetical account balance after the take profit target is achieved. Middle info panel: 1. Simulated P&L from the entry price to where the current live price is. (Displayed in the base currency of the on chart asset, USD in this example) 2. The quantity of the asset that should be purchased at the entry price. This is calculated as follows: Qty = Risk / (Entry Price – Stop Price) 3. The risk to reward ratio, this is how much you could gain compared to how much you could lose. The calculation is as follows: Risk/Reward Ratio = ((Take profit price - Entry price) / (Entry price - Stop loss price)) Bottom info panel: 1. The base currency (USD) difference from the entry price to the stop-loss price. 2. The difference in percentage change from the entry to the stop-loss price. 3. The difference in ticks from the entry price to the stop-loss price. 4. The hypothetical account balance after the stop-loss is hit. ----- Lastly, we will explain how Position Size and Account Balance are being calculated by TradingView: Long Position Variant Position Size: Qty = RiskSize / (EntryPrice - StopPrice) Account Balance when a position is closed after reaching the Take Profit level: Amount = AccountSize + (ProfitLevel – EntryPrice) * Qty Account Balance when position is closed after reaching the Stop Loss level: Amount = AccountSize – (EntryPrice – StopLevel) * Qty Short Position Variant Position Size: Qty = RiskSize / (StopPrice - EntryPrice) Account Balance when a position is closed after reaching the Take Profit level: Amount = AccountSize + (EntryPrice - ProfitLevel) * Qty Account Balance when a position is closed after reaching the Stop Loss level: Amount = AccountSize – (StopLevel – EntryPrice) * Qty AccountSize: Initial account size specified in the settings RiskSize: If the "Risk" option is set to "absolute numbers" = Risk If the "Risk" option is set to "percentage of account size" = Risk / 100 * AccountSize ----- Reference: www.tradingview.com If we made any mistakes please let us know in the comments. There was a lot of formatting we needed to do to best display all of this information for you guys! Enjoy. :)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by AlphaBotSystem
40
NZDUSD the correction not over yet NZDUSD weakness extended overnight, breaking below the early August low and uptrend form March, currently at 0.6597/75, thus completing a small top and finally managing to follow through on the recent bearish “outside day” and the bear “wedge” that is still in place. Beneath .6503 could see weakness extend even further with next support seen at .6466, ahead of .6450/41. It’s worth highlighting the ‘wedge measured objective’ is at .6400.
Short
by Fx_Advisor
Trade Planning - How to Trade PlanThis video explains how to effectively trade plan to limit your risk and to maximize your gains. When it comes to Risk Management and Trade Planning, it's important to maintain a clear mind about the possibility of the asset your assessing going in either bullish or bearish direction. Furthermore, this video explains some ideas on how and where to place stop losses based upon entry confirmations and provides insights about position managing your trades as they develop into a winner. I hope you find this video informative and hope you use this video to your best advantage with your day-to-day trading activities. Thanks for watching. Always remember to trade safe - trade well. Regards, Michael Harding RISK DISCLAIMER Information and opinions contained with this video are for educational purposes only and do not constitute trading recommendations. Trading Forex on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors.
FX:XAUUSDEducation
by Michael_Harding
ridethepig | Temporary High Cooking For Gold📍 Equity Liquidations Feb/March 2020 Gold buyers now hold a solid position, since the break of 1750 our opposition has been trying to get blood from a stone. The solidity behind the bull case has been so strong to date and it shows in itself the fact that 'everything is not roses' despite how the politicians and media sell re-openings and activity data. The highs cannot be ignored here, we have been tracking the $1,900 target together and came +/- within crumbs yesterday but failed for the official tick. The break. The move is still premature on account for those wanting to swing into the $2,000's and beyond. Challenging the bull case here is deflation and liquidations in equities. Retail have been sent into the wilderness, which in no way can turn into the Edenic garden they hope for. Note how the original 5 wave sequence started in 2018 when we traded live the assault from the lows: Buyers have had the upper hand ever since, sellers are hoping to prevent for as long as possible the annoying move to all time highs. In order to liberate the $1,900 highs buyers will need to pullback and allow equity liquidations to take place and secure the required energy. So those looking to take shorts in the same way we switched sides earlier in the year, we can calmly finish our profit taking from longs and look for the appropriate welcome of offers into the book. Note how we are combining defence at soft resistance and ONLY aiming to attack when we see a closing BELOW yesterdays low (1865.xx in spot). To put simply, we are outguessing profit taking in and the strategic start of wave 4 which will last into September. As usual thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by ridethepig
18