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AUDCAD (1D): Possible short positionAUDCAD (1d) can break north or south. The position here is very tricky. Long squeezes of momentum and ATR resistance can be followed by price going either way. At this time only, there's more on the chart suggesting probability for the south. On the last bullish limb up to 3rd Dec 2018, price retraced down to a 76.4% Fib before a struggling recovery from 1st March 2018 of a 50% fib. This latest retracement noreth looks weak - but of course strange things can happen. My probability estimate is for the south. How wrong I am will be limited by a stop loss. No pain, no gain. :)
Short
by Captain_Walker
COTD - 12/04 XAUUSD Revisiting our Chart of the Day from Tuesday, where we took a look at the safe haven asset of Gold. On Tuesday we were seeing Gold catching a bid and trading higher on the back of a softer dollar and investors cycling out of riskier assets and aligning themselves with the risk-off assets. We discussed the longer-term setup of the head & shoulders pattern forming and also the declining trendline that has been capping the asset and causing the lower highs. As we look at it now, the U.S. dollar was on the front foot yesterday and as investors cycle back out of safe-haven assets we can see that Gold meets the declining trend line and fails just as it touches it, we have some support today on the weekly pivot level, but for the time being the original two ideas are still in play as we are yet to see a break of the neckline on the head & shoulders formation or a convincing push above the trendline. OANDA:XAUUSD
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Alex_GoMarkets
END OF DOWN TREND? POSSIBLE 600 PIP TRADEGood day risk takers, The Market has been in an intermediate down trend since early April 2018, for the first two months of the downtrend it had a strong momentum. Market then started to run out of steam but slowly pushing down until entering an 11 month channel with occasional fake outs to trap sellers and buyers. In November 2018 Market tested support at 1.1216 which is a very important level which held in May-June 2017 and November 2016. Price failed to break through and continued in its channel until testing the support again in 09 March 2019 and now which is current market price (02 April 2019). We see divergence on the weekly time frame for the 14 period RSI which indicates a reversal is eminent. The question we have to answer now is that is this the end of a downtrend(intermediate), there is an 11 year old trend line which the market respects and could possibly be the long term target if the market were to reverse which is also a resistance for the primary downtrend. In terms of fundamentals the US-China trade talks are still the main issue of concern, there is also Brexit for the Euro and Quantitative Easing, all these would be instrumental in driving the pair up to the 1.1800 which is possible were the trend line would extend to at the time.
Long
by ZAYN1001
Further downside unlocked in GoldWe have some important updates here on Gold after the previous chart (see attached: "Large triangle forming...?"). It is now clear we are in the final leg of an ABC sequence. It is time to start paying attention to the Gold chart over the coming weeks, there is a very strong argument to be made for a top being formed here. This can retrace as much as 1255 here in another leg lower. To the other side, if we price starts to stabilise around 1325 then we may have set the low in the "E" chapter for those following the triangle. So to put it simply, what we have on the menu here to trade is the possibility of a top at 1325. If resistance holds here then we are unlocking a move back towards 1255 before eventually putting scaffolding up around a material low. Alternatively, I will be ready to add upside exposure should be crack the 1325. Good luck all those trading Gold for Spring.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by ridethepig
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Long
by MikeCryptoSignals
3
Short USD/JPY via risk=> Here we are isolating the Yen once more and expecting a worsening outlook of US assets to continue which will raise the prospect of asset repatriation out of the US. Whilst risk may be rebounding temporarily as the FED attempts a dovish shift, and US-China trade tensions are likely to continue de-escalating, USDJPY will still like remain on offer amid broader USD weakness. Here we also expect the rebound in risk sentiment to be temporary rather than fixed, meaning JPY will see some inflows. If Japanese banks tighten conditions further we will have a greater incentive for real money to reduce their exposure in the US. The only risk here is if risk on sentiment stays supported and the US macro outlook improves. For those interested in more details on the "flash crash" please see our previous USDJPY weekly chart! Good luck and all the best for those invested in the US.
Short
by ridethepig
4
Leg D completed on the Weekly... expecting bears to come in hereThose who have been following our commentary on Gold will have known 1180-1220 was our initial entry for longs when the position was anti-consensus. Once it started working we released the idea of longs towards 1345 and finally we are here after 14 weeks. Expecting a large retrace here as bulls unwind their positions and book profits, we have an opportunity to ride this retrace leg to the downside. Inflation is starting to edge down, the only card we need to be aware of is risk. For those tracking the macro side, via inflation 1225 is the only level in play for bears on this final leg E. There is plenty of room below current levels and we see great value in shorts here. Best of luck to those trading live, please remember to like and comment and keep the support coming. Thanks
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by ridethepig
Signs of homemade inflation a few months away... [take 2]For those who have been following our previous idea (see related posts) you will already know we have been tracking this leg to the upside since 1200. We are finally starting to run out of steam for this initial leg and it is time to start looking for positions on the retrace. Initially we attempted shorting this before the market ran away without us. So in this second attempt we are positioning for exactly the same flow. => Inflation will begin to return in parts of the world later in the year (homemade) ...assuming we can clear risks on the US & China trade front then the stage looks set for a test as low as 1225 before any further meaningful upside ... would expect this to begin happening with an earnings recession towards Q3/Q4 this year. Good luck to those on the sell side here, we are being aggressive with the trigger in attempt to outsmart the beginning of a very large leg ahead of inflation data next week from the US.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by ridethepig
3
!!! DJI 1937 DO YOU BELIEVE IN COINCIDENCES ??? DEJA VU ???In the late 1937 after the great depression huge money printing have happened in order to stimulate the economy... Many successful investors and portfolio managers have mentioned that we have been in the last cycle of the business cycle ! According to one of the most successful money managers Ray Dalio we have been in a similar perdion as the late 30s period. After looking at charts it turned out that we are in TOO SIMILAR situation. Sell off have occurred after a huge rally that sell of has formed bearish cypher pattern. RSI have been showing overbought condition with bearish divergence. The bull trap has occurred after that with new hopes new believes for the bright future... But all of a sudden bad things start to happen and they GRIND ON slowly but surely. Just thinking about it... Hopefully there is some more room to go but all of that money printed all of that huge debt, slowing economic growth, trade tensions negative bond yields, few EU economies close to a recession it seems to me that thing might become really really BAD. Gold has appreciated significantly in the last 4 months... Be prepared. GOOD LUCK
DJ:DJI
by TG_Advisory
3
Signs of homemade inflation a few months away...For those who have been following our previous idea (see related posts) you will already know we have been tracking this leg to the upside since 1200. We are finally starting to run out of steam for this initial leg and it is time to start looking for positions on the retrace. => Inflation will begin to return in parts of the world later in the year (homemade) ...assuming we can clear risks on the US & China trade front then the stage looks set for a test as low as 1225 before any further meaningful upside ... would expect this to begin happening with an earnings recession towards Q3/Q4 this year. Good luck to those on the sell side here, we are being aggressive with the trigger in attempt to outsmart the beginning of a very large leg ahead of inflation data next week from the US.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by ridethepig