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Trading &/or GamblingThe difference between trading and gambling. This article will shine a light on the most frequent mistakes that traders make. These mistakes blur the thin line between trading and gambling. Many people have spoken on this topic, but we truly believe that it is still not sufficient, and traders should be better educated on how to avoid gambling behaviour and emotional outbursts. When we speak about trading versus gambling, we define gambling as the act of making irrational, emotional and quick decisions. Most of the time, these decisions are based on greed, and sometimes fear of the trader. Let’s dive into the exact problems we have personally experienced thousands of times, and want to help others avoid. 1 ♠ Bad Money Management This is something that everyone has heard at least once, but seems to naively ignore in the hopes that it is not that important . It is the most important . When a trader enters trades, it is exceptionally alluring to enter with all of their money, or close to all of it. In gambling terms, that is going “All in”, or “All or nothing”. As a rule of thumb, both traders and gamblers should only place or bet money that they can afford to lose. Thankfully, at least in trading one can limit their loss for that specific trade, by placing a stop loss or exiting before total liquidation. In Poker, you can’t fold when you are “All in” and take a portion of your money back. However, that does not mean entering trades with full capital, even with a stop-loss, is going to give you exponential returns and feed your greed for profits. Traders should enter positions with a small amount of their full capital, to limit the damage from losses. Yes, you also limit the possibility that you win a few trades in a row with all of your money and… There goes the greed we mentioned. The “globally perfect” percent of equity you need to enter trades to reach that balance between being too cautious and too greedy does not exist. There are methods, like the Kelly Criterion, as described in our previous Idea (see related ideas below), that help you optimize your money management. Always ask yourself, “How much can I afford to lose?”. Aim for a balanced approach. This way you can position yourself within the market for a long and a good time, not just for a few lucky wins. Greedy money management, or lack thereof, ends in liquidations and heartbreak. 2 ♣ The Use of Leverage Anyone who has tried using leverage, knows how easy it is to lose your position (or full) capital in seconds. Using leverage is mainly sold to retail traders as a tool for them to loan money from the exchange or broker and bet with it. It is extremely profitable for institutions, since it multiplies the fees you pay them ten to one hundred-fold. In our opinion, leverage isn’t something that should be entirely avoided. However, it should be limited as much as possible. We cannot deny that using 1-5x leverage can be beneficial for people with small accounts and a thirst for growth, however as the leverage grows, the more of a gambler you become. We often see people share profits made using 20+ times leverage. Some even use ridiculous leverages within the range of 50-125x. If you are doing that, do you truly trust your entry so much that you believe the market won’t move 1% against your decision and liquidate you immediately? At this point, the gambling aspect should be evident, and it goes without saying that you should not touch this “125x Golden Apple”, like Eve in the Garden of Eden. Especially when you see a snake-exchange promote it. If you use a low amount of leverage, and grow your account to the point where you don’t need it for your personal goals in terms of monetary profit. You should consider stopping the use of it, and at least know you’ll be able to sleep at night. 3 ♥ Always Being In A Position Always being either long or short leads to addiction and becomes gambling. While we don’t have scientific proof of that, we can give you our own experience as an example. To be a profitable trader, you do not need to always be in a position, or chase every single move on the market. You need to develop the ability just to sit back and watch, analyse and make conscious decisions. Let the bad opportunities trick someone else, while you patiently wait for all your pre-defined conditions to give you a real signal. When you think of trading, remember that the market has a trend the minority (around 20-30%) of the time. If you are always in a position, this means that 70-80% of the time you are hoping that something will happen in your favour. That, by definition, is gambling. Another aspect, that we have experienced a lot, is that while you remain in a position, especially if you have used leverage, you are constantly paying your exchange fees. You can be in a short position for a week and pay daily fees which only damage your equity, and therefore margin ratio. So why not just sit back, be patient and define some concrete rules for entering and exiting? Avoid risky situations, and let the market bring the profits whenever it decides to. 4 ♦ Chasing Huge Profits Hold your horses, Warren Buffett. Through blood, sweat and tears, we can promise you that you cannot seriously expect to make 100% every month, no matter what magical backtesting or statistics you are calculating your future fortune on. Moreover, you will realise that consistently making 2-5% a month is an excellent career for a trader. Yes, the markets can be good friends for a while, you may stumble into a bull-run and start making double-digit profits from a trade from time to time. Double-digit losses will also follow if you lose your sight in a cloud of euphoria and greed. Many times, you can follow the “profit is profit” principle, and exit at a small win if the risk of loss is increasing. 5 ♠ Being Sentimental Towards Given Assets You may have a fondness for Bitcoin and Tesla, and we understand that because we too have our favourites. Perhaps you’re deeply attached to the vision, community and purpose of certain projects. On the flip side, there may be projects that you completely despise and hope their prices plummet to zero. What you personally like and dislike, should not interfere with your work as a trader. Introducing such strong emotions into your trading will lead you into a loop of irrational decisions. You may find yourself asking, “Why isn’t this price going parabolic with how good the project is?”. This sounds, from personal experience, quite similar to sitting at a Roulette table and asking: “Why does it keep landing on red when I’ve been constantly betting black? It has to change any moment now”. First and foremost, you may be completely wrong, but most importantly – it could go parabolic, but trying to predict the exact time or expecting it to happen immediately and placing your “bet” on that is again, gambling. Don’t get attached to projects when trading. If you are an investor who just wants to hold their shares in an awesome company, or cryptocurrency, that is perfectly fine, hold them as much as you want. The key is to make an important distinction between trading and investing, and to base your strategy on the hand that the market provides you with. 6 ♣ Putting Your Eggs In One Basket We all have heard of diversification, but how you approach it is crucial. A trader should always have their capital spread between at least a few assets. Furthermore, the trading strategy for each asset must be distinct, or in other words – they should not rely on the same entry and exit conditions for different assets. The markets behave differently for each asset, and you cannot be profitable with some magical indicator or strategy with a “one-size-fits-all” style. Divide your trades into different pairs and asset classes, and study each market individually to properly diversify. Manage the equity you put into each trade carefully! Conclusion The takeaway we want you as a reader to have from this article is that trading without consciously controlling your emotions inevitably leads to great loss and most importantly, a lot of stress. We hate stress. Trading and life in general is exponentially harder when you are under stress. Control your risk, sleep easy, and let the market bring you profits. Reaching this level of Zen will not be easy, but it is inevitable. Be happy when you make a profit, no matter how small or big. A lot of small profits and proper money management complete the vision you have of a successful business. Ultimately, trading is just that – work, not gambling or a pastime activity. Treat it as work and always remember to never rely on luck. The advice we’ve included here is written by a few experienced gamblers… Oops, I meant traders 😉. We hope that some of the lessons we’ve had to painstakingly learn through trial and error can now be shared with those who are interested. Of course, none of this constitutes investment advice. It’s merely a friendly heads-up.
Education
by sofex
How Would a Major War Impact the US Stock Market?CME: Micro S&P 500 ( CME_MINI:MES1! ), CBOT: Micro Dow Jones ( CBOT_MINI:MYM1! ) In the last two stories, I discussed how the prices of crude oil, a strategic energy commodity, and gold, a safe-haven asset, could soar at wartime. Extended reading: “Would the Middle East Conflict Push Gold and Oil Prices Higher?” Extended reading: “MCO: Options Strategy to Capture Crude Oil Volatility” Today, I turn my focus on the U.S. stock market. The following analysis attempts to address this hypothetical question: How would US stocks be impacted by a major war? While the media constantly blasts breaking news from the Middle East, the US stock market behaves like business as usual. • On Friday October 6th, Dow Jones settled at 33,408. On the Monday after the conflict started, the Dow rose 197 points, or +0.6%, to 33,605. • 1-week change: Dow closed at 33,670 on October 13th, up 0.8%. • 2-week change: Dow closed at 33,127 on October 20th, down -0.8%. • The S&P 500 had a similar price trend. It settled on 4,308 right before the conflict. Price changes were: +0.6% (1-day), +1.5% (1-week), and -2.0% (2-week). What drive the US stock market are still corporate earnings and the Fed: • In the first half of October, strong Q3 earnings season drove stock indexes up; • On October 12th, higher-than-expected US CPI data pushed market indexes down; • October 18th, stock market plunged after the Fed Chair delivered a hawkish speech; • October 19th, Tesla’s Q3 underperformance led the decline of the broad market. All three US market indexes ended with a weekly loss. Time is too young to tell anything about the current conflict. How about the Russia-Ukraine conflict? US stocks were on a downtrend all last year. But I would argue that this was driven by the Fed rate hikes, which pushed interest rates up 525 basis points. Neither the Mideast nor East Europe saw US direct military involvements. Sending billions of dollars in aids to allies may raise federal budget deficit, but it is not likely to have a material impact on earnings for many of the US companies. To fully assess the impact of a major war, we need to find one where millions of US troops were sent to the front line. This analysis examines how the Dow index responded to the two World Wars, the Korean War, and the Vietnam War. World War I (July 1914 to November 1918) • Phase I: In 1913-14, the U.S. suffered a two-year recession. According to the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), U.S. GDP dropped by 25.9%. The Dow fell from 68 points in September 1912 to 52 points in July 1914, down 24%. • Phase II: The Great World helped end the recession. In the first two years, the U.S. remained neutral. American companies supplied vast quantities of arms and logistic materials to the warring countries in Europe. The Dow gained 106 points, up+104%. • Phase III: The U.S. declares war on Germany on April 6, 1917. The U.S. military grew from 128,000 to 4 million soldiers. Initially, entering the war produced a shock to the U.S. economy. The Dow fell to 72 points (-32%). However, wartime production helped companies expanded quickly. By October 1918, the Dow rebounded to 86, up 19%. • Phase IV: After the war ended, U.S. companies actively helped Europe rebuild. The Dow rose 118 points by October 1919, up 37%. Commentary: WW1 was mainly fought on European soil. Whether as wartime suppliers for Europe or as government contractors, U.S. companies saw expanded production and higher earnings. At the end of the war, the U.S. overtook Great Britain as the No. 1 World Power. The Dow index rose 127% throughout WW1. World War 2 (September 1939 to August 1945) • Phase I: In 1937-38, the U.S. experienced a major recession, with GDP falling by 18.2%, according to the NBER. The Dow went from 188 in February 1937 to 98 points in March 1938, down 48%. A year before the outbreak of WW2, U.S. economy was in a slow recovery. The Dow grew to 135 points in August 1939, up 38%. • Phase II: Germany started WW2 by invading Poland in 1939. Like in WW1, the U.S. remained neutral for two years and acted as a wartime supplier. As the Axis power threatened the very existence of the Free World, both Wall Street and Main Street went into a panic. The Dow closed at 111 points in November 1941, down 26%. • Phase III: Japan attacked Pearl Harbor on December 7, 1941. President Roosevelt declared war and joined the Allies. The U.S. military expanded from 330,000 to 16 million troops. Once again, U.S. manufacturers transformed into wartime production. Huge government orders helped them grow rapidly. By September 1945, the Dow rebounded to 180 points, a 62% gain. • Phase IV: The Marshall Plan made the U.S. a major force in rebuilding Europe after the war. U.S. companies benefited from these massive construction efforts. The Dow continued to rise, reaching 212 points, up 18%, by May 1946. Commentary: From a purely economic point of view, U.S. companies saw rapid growth in production scale, revenue, and profit during wartime. After the war, the U.S. consolidated its position as the No. 1 World Superpower. The Dow rose 57% throughout WW2. Korean War and Vietnam War • The Korean War lasted three years from its outbreak on June 25, 1950, to the signing of the armistice on July 27, 1953. The size of the U.S. military was as high as 6.8 million troops during this period. About 480,000 fought in Korea. • The Dow went from 210 to 277 points during the war, up 32%. • Vietnam War lasted 10 years from March 1965 to April 1975. The U.S. military stood at 8.7 million troops. About 2.7 million soldiers fought in Vietnam. • The Dow was 900 in 1965 and ended at 815 ten years later, down 9%. Commentary: In WW2, the U.S. sent 3 million troops to Europe and 1.8 million soldiers to the Pacific theater. For a comparison, the Korean War had about one-tenth of the fighting forces. It did not have a big impact on the U.S. economy and the stock market. Troops size in Vietnam was five times bigger. However, in this decade-long war, the stock market was influenced by many other factors, from the Civil Right movement to the Space Race; and from Nixon's historic visit to China to his resignation from the presidency. Hedging with Micro Dow and Micro S&P Index Futures In conclusion, my analysis shows that wars did not have a negative impact on U.S. stock market. Contradicting our intuition, U.S. stock market indexes generally rose during a major war and continued to go up after the war. Why is this the case? All the wars we examined here were fought outside of the U.S. soil. In fact, no war has been fought in continental U.S. since the Civil War, for nearly 160 years. Even in the two World Wars, the U.S. did not pay the heavy toll of civilian casualty and property destruction most warring countries suffered. Furthermore, the U.S. government has been a “going concern” and the U.S. stock market operate at peace time and in wars. You can’t say the same for Germany, France, Italy, Russia, the Austria-Hungarian Empire, the Ottoman Empire, the Japan Empire, or China. With two reginal military conflicts fighting simultaneously, the risk of a global conflict increases exponentially. For a rational investor, this is a good time to plan for global asset allocation. Those investors holding assets in foreign countries could consider hedging with U.S. stock market index futures. Whenever the next major geopolitical crisis break outs, assets in foreign markets and in foreign currencies may decline in value faster than that of the U.S. stocks. In the cases we illustrated, U.S. stock index could rise during wartime. CBOT Micro Dow Futures ( XETR:MYM ) is notional on $0.50 times the DJIX index. At Friday closing price of 33,222, each December contract MYMZ3 is value at $16,611. Each long or short futures contract requires an initial margin of $800. CME Micro S&P Futures ( FWB:MES ) is notional on $5 times the S&P 500 index. At Friday closing price of 4,244.75, each December contract MESZ3 is value at $21,223.75. Holding one contract requires an initial margin of $1,120. Investors could consider a “Buy and Hold” strategy for as long as they hold assets that are weaker and/or less safe than the US stocks. For futures hedging, this strategy entails buying the most liquid nearby contract, holding it until contract expiration month, and then rolling it over to the next liquid contract. Both MYMZ3 and MESZ3 expire on December 15th, the third Friday. By one or two weeks before the expiration, investors could close out the open positions and buy the March 2024 contracts, which are MYMH4 and MESH4, respectively. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
DJ:DJILong
by JimHuangChicago
3
Seeking Shelter in Gold on Rising Geopolitical RisksShining bright and sizzling hot, gold has surged 8% over the past two weeks. Ample supply of geopolitical shocks from violence in the Middle East to ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict has been driving gold high. This paper examines the drivers supporting the gold rally and prevailing bullish & bearish factors. It posits two hypothetical trades to astutely position portfolios amid a raft of geopolitical and economic shocks. GOLD IS A HAVEN WHEN GEOPOLITICS DELIVER SHOCKS In a previous paper , Mint Finance highlighted that gold is a resilient store of wealth as it outperforms in times of extreme volatility. Geopolitical tensions remain intense amid ongoing armed conflicts in Russia-Ukraine and Palestine-Israel which underpins gold as an investor haven. Gold responds to elevated geopolitical risks as reported by the World Gold Council . A 100 unit increase in the Geopolitical Risk Index ( GPR ) has a 2.5% positive impact on gold returns as measured by the Gold Return Attribution Model ( GRAM ). GOLD IS TRADING AT KEY PSYCHOLOGICAL PRICE LEVEL Gold prices have catapulted more than 8% since the rapid escalation in violence in the middle east over the last two weeks. Gold now trades just below USD 2,000/oz. The USD 2,000/oz mark is clearly an important psychological level. A more crucial level is USD 2,100/oz. Gold prices have failed to breach 2,100 three times over the last three years. Gold prices are exhibiting a solid bullish momentum. It has surpassed two resistance levels (1,902.9 and 1,943.4). Price action is close to forming a golden cross between 9-day and 100-day simple moving average. Gold is likely to surpass the USD 2,000/oz over the next few days. However, passing the sticky USD 2,100/oz levels might be more challenging. The continuous rally over the past two weeks may be due for a correction if the momentum fails to hold. RSI has already raced past its upper bound. Large upward moves are known to be followed by sharp price pullbacks. SEASONAL DEMAND FROM GOLD MAJORS POSITIVELY AFFECTS GOLD PRICES The top two largest gold consumers are China and India. Combined, they represent ~50% of total global demand. Both paint a positive picture for gold demand. 1. Shrinking Premiums in China to bolster demand China represents 25% of global gold demand. China’s domestic gold availability has been strained over the past few months while demand has remained high leading to an all-time-high premium on domestic gold prices over international gold prices. These premiums have eased sharply over the past few days as supply conditions improve after China’s golden week holidays. Lower premium on domestic gold makes it an attractive buy. Furthermore, wholesale gold demand in China is showing signs of improvement. Gold ETFs are attracting notable inflows. The PBoC is building its gold reserves at a brisk pace. 2. Strong Monsoon cements solid demand for Gold in India India represents 24% of global gold demand. Monsoon and festivals have a major impact on Indian gold demand. Indian consumers buy gold as wedding gifts or as investments during festivals. Demand is expected to spike during the upcoming festival and wedding season. This year, India witnessed a wet monsoon which bodes well for farmers. Consequently, that is good for gold demand too. Rural India represents 60% of the country’s gold demand. As highlighted by Debbie Carlson in CME OpenMarkets , a wet monsoon leads to better harvests and higher earnings for farmers driving a positive effect on gold demand. GOLD PRICES ARE SIZZLING HOT Despite the bullish drivers, a major headwind to the gold demand is its high prices. Gold prices remain elevated. Higher prices lead to guarded consumers. With prices 9% higher YTD and 20% higher over the past one-year, the rally in prices until now has been rapid, making consumers wary of overinvesting in the yellow metal. Gold does not generate yields. It pays no dividends or interest. When risk free rates remain high, investing in gold is not lucrative. As the 10Y US Treasury yield stubbornly stays around 5%, investors opt for treasuries over gold. Gold prices are at record high in several non-USD currencies. That makes gold even more expensive. Weaker Indian Rupee and the Chinese Renminbi crushes domestic demand down. INSIGHTS FROM COMMITMENT OF TRADERS AND OPTIONS MARKET Asset managers had been building up net short positioning in CME Gold Futures until recently. Bearish sentiment in gold began in July, when investors started to anticipate further Fed rate hikes. Against the backdrop of rising geopolitical tensions, these asset managers are shifting away from net short to net long positioning over the last one week. Implied volatility on gold options has shot up to levels last seen during the banking crisis in March, but historical volatility remains far lower in comparison. This suggests potential for rising volatility ahead. Source: CVOL Skew on gold options have surged with call premiums having risen faster than put premiums. Source: CME Quikstrike Options traders are far more bullish than those trading Gold futures. Put/Call ratio for gold options is 0.52 implying two calls (bullish bets) for every put (bearish bet). Source: CME Quikstrike HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP A hypothetical long position in CME Micro Gold Futures can be used to harness gains from the overwhelmingly bullish sentiment in gold. CME Micro Gold Futures expiring in December (MCGZ23) provides exposure to 10 oz of gold. It requires an initial maintenance margin of USD 780 (as of 23rd Oct 2023). These micro contracts can be used to secure granular exposure in a capital efficient manner. Still, given the uncertainty and the risk for sharp reversal, a tight stop loss is appropriate to protect from a sharp price correction. Entry: USD 1,994 Target: USD 2,090 Stop Loss: USD 1,945 Profit at Target: USD 960 ((2090-1994) x 10) Loss at Stop: USD 490 ((1994-1945) x 10) Reward to Risk: 2.1x Alternatively, investors can deploy bull call spread on CME Gold Options expiring in December (OGF4) to express the view that gold may retest USD 2,100/oz but not rise beyond. A Bull Call Spread consists of a long call position at a lower strike (USD 2,020) and a short call position at a higher strike (USD 2,100). The position requires net premium of USD 2,400 (USD 4,970 - USD 2,570). The payoff for the hypothetical position is provided below. Both upside and downside for the position are fixed. Hypothetically, the position breaks even when prices reach USD 2,044/oz and has a maximum payoff of USD 5,600. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Long
by mintdotfinance
EURGBP uptrend opens up, more upside to come? **Find out more from my Tradingview Stream this week** *************************************************************************************** Hello there! If you like my analysis and it helped you ,do give me a thumbs ups on tradingview! 🙏 And if you would like to show further support for me, you can gift me some coins on tradingview! 😁 Thank you! Disclaimers: The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes. The author/producer of these content shall not and will not be responsible for any form of financial/physical/assets losses incurred from trades executed from the derived conclusion of the individual from these content shared. Thank you, and please do your due diligence before any putting on any trades!
Long
by Shadowing_The_Big_Boys
UsdChf weakest among allLooking at Uchf , if usd is to turn weak, will look more into shorting this pair **Find out more from my Tradingview Stream this week** *************************************************************************************** Hello there! If you like my analysis and it helped you ,do give me a thumbs ups on tradingview! 🙏 And if you would like to show further support for me, you can gift me some coins on tradingview! 😁 Thank you! Disclaimers: The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes. The author/producer of these content shall not and will not be responsible for any form of financial/physical/assets losses incurred from trades executed from the derived conclusion of the individual from these content shared. Thank you, and please do your due diligence before any putting on any trades!
Short
by Shadowing_The_Big_Boys
2
Risk/Reward Ratios 101In trading, the risk/reward ratio stands as the beacon guiding every trader's decisions. But what exactly is this ratio, and how does it define your success in the market? In this article we will describe how risk/reward ratio affects your trading performance. If you appreciate our charts, give us a quick 💜💜 Understanding the Risk/Reward Ratio: At its core, the risk/reward ratio quantifies the balance between the potential gain and the potential loss in a trade. It’s a critical tool that aids traders in choosing trades wisely, ensuring they opt for opportunities that promise high rewards while keeping risks minimal. Calculating the Ratio: The calculation itself is straightforward. By dividing the potential loss by the potential profit, traders can gauge the attractiveness of a trade. For instance, if a trade has a potential loss of $5 and a potential profit of $15, the risk/reward ratio would be 1:3, indicating that for every unit of risk, there's the potential for three units of reward. Implementing the Ratio in Trading: Successful traders plan their trades, setting predetermined entry and exit points. This strategy allows to calculate the risk/reward ratio accurately, ensuring trades with favorable ratios. For instance, consider a scenario where a trader aims for a 15% profit and sets a stop-loss at 5%. By maintaining a discipline of setting targets based on market analysis rather than arbitrary numbers, traders can achieve a consistent profits. The Synergy with Win Rates: Combining the risk/reward ratio with win rates elevates a trader's strategy. A higher win rate indicates more successful trades, further enhancing the overall profitability. For instance, a trader with a 60% win rate can afford a lower ratio, say 1:1 minumum, as the majority of their trades are profitable. The Power of the Risk/Reward Calculation: The true power of the risk/reward ratio lies in its ability to provide traders with an asymmetric opportunity. This means that the potential upside is significantly greater than the potential downside, leading to more profitable trades over the long term. Keeping Records for Improvement: Maintaining a trading journal is crucial. By documenting trades, traders gain a comprehensive understanding of their strategies' performance. Analyzing these records aids in adapting strategies for different market conditions and asset classes, leading to refined decision-making. In conclusion, mastering the risk/reward ratio is paramount for every trader aiming for consistent profitability. By understanding, calculating, and implementing this ratio alongside win rates, traders can make informed decisions, mitigate risks, and ensure sustainable success in the volatile world of trading. So, remember, in the world of trading, it's not just about how much you win; it's about how much you win concerning what you risk.
Education
by Vestinda
How to backtest Signals with different Risk to reward ratioHello traders , this is my very first video on this platform, so please bear with me as I plan to make better content in the future. In this video, I aim to show you how to test your trading signals using various risk-to-reward ratios. The goal is to identify the most suitable ratio for your signals and create a profitable strategy. What's crucial in strategy development is effective risk management and selecting the right risk-to-reward ratio. You might have a signal that performs poorly at a 1:1 ratio but becomes profitable at a 3:1 ratio. I'll explain how to use this indicator and why it can be highly beneficial for your trading. In this section of the video, I'm demonstrating how to apply this method to internal signals like RSI, moving averages, and Supertrend. Additionally, I'm planning to create another video to teach you how to backtest your own external signals. Please let me know if this is something you'd like to learn more about.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDEducation
by TZack88
4
$BRN1! -Are you Ready for Winter's Storms ahead ?!- The most recent conflict on the Middle East between Israel and Palestine(Hamas) has caused TVC:GOLD and Brent Crude Oil (futures) ICEEUR:BRN1! price to jump 4% . This increase risk on Geo-Political spectrum is messing up with our Short in ICEEUR:BRN1! . Short Call idea was shared on bingX copy-trade community where 2.000 people saw the Short trade opportunity. Congratulations to those who took action. (Calm before Winter's Storm Idea; Russia & Saudi Arabia two of the largest World's Oil Producers steady keeping production cuts) We have already partially taken profits off our trade before conflicts occurrence, leaving the position opened by aiming at full TP profits at Golden Zone (which may not be reached now due to the conflict) *** NOTE This is not Financial Advice ! Please do your own research with your own diligence and consult your own Financial Advisor before partaking on any trading activity with your hard earned money based solely on this Idea. Ideas being released are published for my own trading speculation and journaling needed to be clear on different asset classes price action.
ICEEUR:BRN1!Long
by Mr_J__fx
NzdCad could see a new trend heading up on dailyCould be starting a new trend upwards on daily. looking for pullbacks or opportunities for long **Find out more from my Tradingview Stream this week** *************************************************************************************** Hello there! If you like my analysis and it helped you ,do give me a thumbs ups on tradingview! 🙏 And if you would like to show further support for me, you can gift me some coins on tradingview! 😁 Thank you! Disclaimers: The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes. The author/producer of these content shall not and will not be responsible for any form of financial/physical/assets losses incurred from trades executed from the derived conclusion of the individual from these content shared. Thank you, and please do your due diligence before any putting on any trades!
Long
by Shadowing_The_Big_Boys
Risk Management vs. Time ManagementHey! Have you been spending day thinking about mistakes you made and things you didn't do? Investors are knowingly comparing an exchanges to a casino. A gambler, losing, does not get up from the gambling table in the hope of winning back. He believes that the likelihood of winning increases with every lost bet. This phenomenon, called player mistake, is common among investors. The pioneers of the theory of behaviour finance Hersh Shifrin and Meyer Statman showed in 1985 that investors intuitively misjudge the likelihood of repeating random results - they hold unprofitable positions too long, hoping for a return in prices, and close profitable positions too quickly, fearing that the movement will end. The assertion that the market cannot fall for many sessions in a row is untenable. Short-term changes in asset prices are mostly random, notes analyst and author of several books on behaviour finance, James Montier, in his article Global equity strategy, gamblers fallacy. Tails does not become more probable after a series of heads, the coin has no memory - in the same way, the chances of success do not increase after a series of failures. The major problem in the trading when we trying to recoup from losses. Many people make this mistake over and over again. The reason of this mistake is the unwillingness to accept and calculate affordable losses and come to terms with the result, the wrong internal setting that you must end every trade and every trading session with a profit. But not every trade will be profitable. How can I avoid this mistake? 1. After loss trade, tell yourself: "Stop, I won't trade now, I will pause." 2. Analyze the failed trade and write it down. Thus, you will allow yourself to "cool down" and more intelligently approach the situation on the market. There will always be opportunities, don't be afraid to miss out on any movement and profits. 3. Calmly develop a new trading plan based on market changes. If according to the trading plan you need to enter, then enter and earn. Do not rush to enter the market immediately, because it is easy to enter, but it is difficult to exit, since it is no longer possible to change the initial price at which you entered. 4. Make sure you following your risk management and always trade with possibility to lose. Stay safe and good luck!
Editors' picks
GEMINI:BTCUSDEducation
by ArShevelev
69
CHMF - One more Russian metalurgic play for Q4-Q1'24 From a both, technical and fundamental perspectives, It looks like Russian metalurgic and extraction complex sets-up for the next wave higher in this Q4, or maybe early next year. Maybe it is because of rubble current and future potential weakness, or because of the dividend that these companies (CHMF, MAGN, NLMK etc) pay or are planning to, we may observe rather neat base structures being in formation within supportive further advance ElliotWave structure. My general thesis for Severstal is that the price has bottomed in running flat type corrective structure (running flat are rare in EW and are signs of a bullishness) and now is basing for break-out to new this year highs closer to 1530-1580 zone where I may see next resistance zone. Please have look how price weekly advance is made on burst up in volume profile and how scares volume is, when price stops and digests its move. Holding above 10w line is crucial for me entertaining longs in any position and we may see how buyers actively support this moving average, not letting the price close bellow this line. My personal plan, is to start building position above 1400 zone, if price breaks out with volume, having tight risk-management parameters within 3-5% breathing room. I am perfectly fine staying out on the side line if the price will not cooperate or stops me out and waiting for the next low and time-right risk entry spot.
RUS:CHMFLong
by artemfedorov
Satochi -- IS THERE A HUGE INCREASE COMING ON FTT?Thank you for reading our update. Please keep in mind that this is not trading advice. There is still a 400M market cap + max supply and it's not possible to mint more coins. Will we witness a similar impact on Luna's price, like the one it experienced when it increased to $7 after the huge fall? What could be the reason behind the data showing buy orders at $11 USD on FTT? Typically, it seems unlikely that Luna has a chance of rebounding to $11 after such a significant decline, especially given the current trends in this risky coin, FTT. Data and technical analysis (TA) play a crucial role in trading, sometimes offering insights into patterns. Is there a substantial price increase anticipated in the upcoming days for FTT? We will closely monitor FTT to see if it can achieve a price increase.
Long
by SatochiTrader
Gbpnzd,pretty dead...still bias to downsideStill on the downside for shorts...watching on the h1. **Find out more from my Tradingview Stream this week** *************************************************************************************** Hello there! If you like my analysis and it helped you ,do give me a thumbs ups on tradingview! 🙏 And if you would like to show further support for me, you can gift me some coins on tradingview! 😁 Thank you! Disclaimers: The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes. The author/producer of these content shall not and will not be responsible for any form of financial/physical/assets losses incurred from trades executed from the derived conclusion of the individual from these content shared. Thank you, and please do your due diligence before any putting on any trades!
Short
by Shadowing_The_Big_Boys
Usd uptrend still intactNear term still bullish on USD, simply put, pullbacks will be opportunity for me to go long .So yup, bias on Majors to still go down. **Find out more from my Tradingview Stream this week** *************************************************************************************** Hello there! If you like my analysis and it helped you ,do give me a thumbs ups on tradingview! 🙏 And if you would like to show further support for me, you can gift me some coins on tradingview! 😁 Thank you! Disclaimers: The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes. The author/producer of these content shall not and will not be responsible for any form of financial/physical/assets losses incurred from trades executed from the derived conclusion of the individual from these content shared. Thank you, and please do your due diligence before any putting on any trades!
TVC:DXYLong
by Shadowing_The_Big_Boys
Risk Management 1I firmly believe that risk management is the most important factor in trading, even more important than strategy in my mind, and if you're going to maintain some discipline to something, then please let it be risk management... A good strategy with bad risk management WILL blow your account, but a bad strategy, with good risk management will still keep your account alive and in the game. For the purposes of this idea, we will use a $1000 account size, on the assumption that most newer traders are around this figure. So what is good risk management? We hear that risking 1% per trade is good, but then following up with 50 trades a day isn't exactly in line with that. Conversely, risking 5% per trade once a day isn't exactly the middle ground either, so what should your risk be? First off, let me just tell you that I, nor any other trader, professional or amateur can tell you what your set risk should be as there is no set answer. It is one that only you can decide. But to give you an idea of where to start, lets assume you have back tested a strategy which is known to be profitable over time but you know it has had 7 losses in a row and which is likely to happen again. So, a $1000 account, Lets assume you risk 2% per trade, and those 7 losses come around. You've now lost 14% of your account. Are you comfortable losing $140 in the space of 7 trades? 1% risk per trade is 7% loss of the account, or $70. Are you comfortable with that? Maybe going to 0.5% is easier for you which is $35. This is how you should come up with your risk per trade percentage. Not from me, not from anyone else, it has to be you. Forget the "I want to win big, and if I risk 2% per trade, and make a 1:3RR winner, then I have gained 6, 0.5% would have only made me 1.5% growth" Forget the winners, they look after themselves, its the losers that will eat you up if your risk is too much. Another point to suggest is that if you place a trade, and you are somewhat uncomfortable watching the price slowly go towards your stop loss, then chances are your position or risk is too big. So lower it. If you aren't flinching at the potential loss, then its probably too low of a risk and maybe increase it a little bit Lets also say your trade risk is 2% maximum, at a time. That means if you have 1 trade open, you have a 2% risk on that, if you wish to have 2 trades open, you risk 1% on each equating to 2% overall, or you bring the stops in so the overall risk is 2%. e.g. bring one to breakeven and the other maintains a stop of 2%. Another question to ask yourself is are you profitable? For example the 90 90 90 rule. 90% of traders lose 90% of their account in the first 90 days. Though this statistic is somewhat contradicted by the ForEx chatroom, as everyone in there is a 'professional'. If you aren't consistently profitable, then I would suggest go to a simulator, but if you don't want to do that, then I would argue even 0.5% is too much. Again, its about keeping your account alive long enough for you to become profitable. So now you have set your risk per trade that you are comfortable with. Brilliant. Now, what are you willing to lose a day? Lets assume you have settled on 1% per trade, are you willing to lose one trade a day and call it quits leaving you 1% down, or 10 times a day and potentially lose 10%? 2% daily loss, 3, 4, 5? Find it, do not exceed it If you like to be in and out of trades but are only willing to risk a 2% daily drawdown, then maybe a 0.5% risk per trade is good for you, as it affords you 4 trades before you have to walk away. If you're comfortable losing 5%, maybe 1% a trade is good for you, offering 5 trades or 2 trades of 2%. You have to make these choices, write them in big bold letters on next to your trading station if you have to, but once made stick to them. I want to put this out there as well, that I am not giving you these numbers, pick one and go from there. I'm asking you to think about your risk exposure on serious level as that is ultimately what will make you either a good trader, or one who thinks its a scam after losing all of your money. Not every day is green, nor is every week. Thats the reality of this game. For me personally, I dont wish to lose more than 2% a day. And in fact my losing days drawdown of the last 30 days are as follows: Aug 25th -0.97% Aug 31st -1.05% Sept 5th -2.05% Sept 19th -0.27% Sept 20th -2.04% Sept 21st -1.04% All other days were either profitable, or not traded. I did have a 9.22% gain day on Sept 7th which completely writes off all these losses and gave me an overall gain of a few percent, and the rest of the winning days have grown my account. Now, and be honest with yourself, are you doing this the other way around? Losing 9% in a day, for 7 days of the month with the winning days being around 2% gains. It doesn't math. Restrict the losses. The winners take care of themselves and will always come around, same as the losses will always come around. But, the game is to stop those losses spiralling out of control and eating into the winners. Only you, and you alone can reduce these risks to yourself. Its you who has to have the discipline to say, nah, enough is enough. I'm done for the day. Not with the mindset of just one more, or this next one will be the winner. LEVERAGE! BEWARE! Moving onto something that is probably even more important than the aforementioned risk per trade is leverage, and margin. The amount of people who are ignorant to the fact that say "ive a 2% stop loss, thats all I can lose" is frankly scary. Leverage is money, given to you by the broker to trade bigger positions. If you have a $1000 account, with no leverage, you can buy 1000 dollars in the forex markets. If you have 50:1 leverage, you can buy 1000 dollars in the forex markets, with just $20 of your account. Its purpose is to enable you to free up your account, trade larger sizes with less up front. Or you could buy $50,000 and the broker lends you the other 49k and you put up the 1k. Which brings us to margin , which is the money you put up front to the broker as a guarantee for the loan, or the leverage. Now, I was watching a youtube guru the other day, who had an account of $100,000 dollars and was using a 2% risk with a 3 pip stop trading the EU. Simulator of course. This is a scary and terrifying way to teach new aspiring traders. If you don't know why, then hopefully, you walk away from this with a better understanding of what is actually happening in the background when you press buy or sell. Okay, so we all can agree that 2% of 100,000 is $2000 dollars right? He has a 3 pip stop loss, meaning price per pip must be $666.66 (2000/3) 100000 units a standard lot and 1 pip is roughly $10 10000 units is a mini lot, and 1 pip is roughly $1 1000 units a micro lot, and 1 pip is roughly $0.10 This guy needs to get a value of $666.66 per pip. So with some maths and a calculator, we can come to the conclusion that he would need a position size of 6,666,667 units of currency He would need to use all of his $100,000 margin, with a leverage of 66:1 minimum to achieve this position in real life, and even then, it wouldnt breathe. It would be margin called within a second, IF the broker even allowed it. With 100:1 leverage, he would be able to get into the trade and all is good, fine and dandy, no margin call, no brokers banging on his door... That is, until a news spike comes out and drives price 30 pips in the opposite direction to his position and skips past his stop like it isn't there 30 pips at a cost of 666 per pip isnt 2000, or 2% of his account. Its actually 10 times that and $19,980 rinsed. Gone. Blown. Bye bye. That is the damage that over leveraged positions do. His 100k account would be sat at $81,020. Almost 20% loss in 1 trade, at the wrong time Watch this video of EURCHF in 2015, and whilst watching it, imagine what your account would look like, over leveraged, on the brink of margin position on the wrong side of this market. www.youtube.com Price dropped roughly 1000 pips in a few seconds, and over 1500 in the space of an hour. Where would Mr youtuber be if he was in there with his $100,000 account, 2 percent risk long on EURCHF on this day, at $666 per pip Well its gone, for sure. In fact he lost his account 6 times over and ultimately has to find $660,000 from somewhere... a 2% risk isn't the only risk. Remember that when you're balls deep in a position, your margin is screaming and news is coming!! I wish you all be safe in trading, and if you aren't green, don't be too red!
TVC:DXYEducation
by HarryTaylor1397
Eurnzd likely more downside, waiting for pullbacks**Find out more from my Tradingview Stream this week** *************************************************************************************** Hello there! If you like my analysis and it helped you ,do give me a thumbs ups on tradingview! 🙏 And if you would like to show further support for me, you can gift me some coins on tradingview! 😁 Thank you! Disclaimers: The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes. The author/producer of these content shall not and will not be responsible for any form of financial/physical/assets losses incurred from trades executed from the derived conclusion of the individual from these content shared. Thank you, and please do your due diligence before any putting on any trades!
Short
by Shadowing_The_Big_Boys
2
Usd as mentioned still on the upsideThough the pullback throughout the week till fomc, we see that USD still made higher high,trend still intact,just take note of the overhead R **Find out more from my Tradingview Stream this week** *************************************************************************************** Hello there! If you like my analysis and it helped you ,do give me a thumbs ups on tradingview! 🙏 And if you would like to show further support for me, you can gift me some coins on tradingview! 😁 Thank you! Disclaimers: The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes. The author/producer of these content shall not and will not be responsible for any form of financial/physical/assets losses incurred from trades executed from the derived conclusion of the individual from these content shared. Thank you, and please do your due diligence before any putting on any trades!
TVC:DXYLong
by Shadowing_The_Big_Boys
Kelly Criterion and other common position-sizing methodsWhat is position sizing & why is it important? Position size refers to the amount of risk - money, contracts, equity, etc. - that a trader uses when entering a position on the financial market. We assume, for ease, that traders expect a 100% profit or loss as a result of the profit lost. Common ways to size positions are: Using a set amount of capital per trade . A trader enters with $100 for example, every time. This means that no matter what the position is, the maximum risk of it will be that set capital. It is the most straight-forward way to size positions, and it aims at producing linear growth in their portfolio. Using a set amount of contracts per trade . A trader enters with 1 contract of the given asset per trade. When trading Bitcoin, for example, this would mean 1 contract is equal to 1 Bitcoin. This approach can be tricky to backtest and analyse, since the contract’s dollar value changes over time. A trade that has been placed at a given time when the dollar price is high may show as a bigger win or loss, and a trade at a time when the dollar price of the contract is less, can be shown as a smaller win or loss. Percentage of total equity - this method is used by traders who decide to enter with a given percentage of their total equity on each position. It is commonly used in an attempt to achieve ‘exponential growth’ of the portfolio size. However, the following fictional scenario will show how luck plays a major role in the outcome of such a sizing method. Let’s assume that the trader has chosen to enter with 50% of their total capital per position. This would mean that with an equity of $1000, a trader would enter with $500 the first time. This could lead to two situations for the first trade: - The position is profitable, and the total equity now is $1500 - The position is losing, and the total equity now is $500. When we look at these two cases, we can then go deeper into the trading process, looking at the second and third positions they enter. If the first trade is losing, and we assume that the second two are winning: a) 500 * 0.5 = 250 entry, total capital when profitable is 750 b) 750 * 0.5 = 375 entry, total capital when profitable is $1125 On the other hand, If the first trade is winning, and we assume that the second two are winning too: a) 1500 * 0.5 = 750 entry, total capital when profitable is $2250 b) 2250 * 0.5 = 1125 entry, total capital when profitable is $3375 Let’s recap: The trader enters with 50% of the capital and, based on the outcome of the first trade, even if the following two trades are profitable, the difference between the final equity is: a) First trade lost: $1125 b) First trade won: $3375 This extreme difference of $2250 comes from the single first trade, and whether it’s profitable or not. This goes to show that luck is extremely important when trading with percentage of equity, since that first trade can go any way. Traders often do not take into account the luck factor that they need to have to reach exponential growth . This leads to very unrealistic expectations of performance of their trading strategy. What is the Kelly Criterion? The percentage of equity strategy, as we saw, is dependent on luck and is very tricky. The Kelly Criterion builds on top of that method, however it takes into account factors of the trader’s strategy and historical performance to create a new way of sizing positions. This mathematical formula is employed by investors seeking to enhance their capital growth objectives. It presupposes that investors are willing to reinvest their profits and expose them to potential risks in subsequent trades. The primary aim of this formula is to ascertain the optimal allocation of capital for each individual trade. The Kelly criterion encompasses two pivotal components: Winning Probability Factor (W) : This factor represents the likelihood of a trade yielding a positive return. In the context of TradingView strategies, this refers to the Percent Profitable. Win/Loss Ratio (R) : This ratio is calculated by the maximum winning potential divided by the maximum loss potential. It could be taken as the Take Profit / Stop-Loss ratio. It can also be taken as the Largest Winning Trade / Largest Losing Trade ratio from the backtesting tab. The outcome of this formula furnishes investors with guidance on the proportion of their total capital to allocate to each investment endeavour. Commonly referred to as the Kelly strategy, Kelly formula, or Kelly bet, the formula can be expressed as follows: Kelly % = W - (1 - W) / R Where: Kelly % = Percent of equity that the trader should put in a single trade W = Winning Probability Factor R = Win/Loss Ratio This Kelly % is the suggested percentage of equity a trader should put into their position, based on this sizing formula. With the change of Winning Probability and Win/Loss ratio, traders are able to re-apply the formula to adjust their position size. Let’s see an example of this formula. Let’s assume our Win/Loss Ration (R) is the Ratio Avg Win / Avg Loss from the TradingView backtesting statistics. Let’s say the Win/Loss ratio is 0.965. Also, let’s assume that the Winning Probability Factor is the Percent Profitable statistics from TradingView’s backtesting window. Let’s assume that it is 70%. With this data, our Kelly % would be: Kelly % = 0.7 - (1 - 0.7) / 0.965 = 0.38912 = 38.9% Therefore, based on this fictional example, the trader should allocate around 38.9% of their equity and not more, in order to have an optimal position size according to the Kelly Criterion. The Kelly formula, in essence, aims to answer the question of “What percent of my equity should I use in a trade, so that it will be optimal”. While any method it is not perfect, it is widely used in the industry as a way to more accurately size positions that use percent of equity for entries. Caution disclaimer Although adherents of the Kelly Criterion may choose to apply the formula in its conventional manner, it is essential to acknowledge the potential downsides associated with allocating an excessively substantial portion of one's portfolio into a solitary asset. In the pursuit of diversification, investors would be prudent to exercise caution when considering investments that surpass 20% of their overall equity, even if the Kelly Criterion advocates a more substantial allocation. Source about information on Kelly Criterion www.investopedia.com
Editors' picks
Education
by sofex
2
Usd still bullish, not much sign to turn yetShould be cautiously taking long on USD , but also mindful of the extended rally it has so far since mid july 2023 **Find out more from my Tradingview Stream this week** *************************************************************************************** Hello there! If you like my analysis and it helped you ,do give me a thumbs ups on tradingview! 🙏 And if you would like to show further support for me, you can gift me some coins on tradingview! 😁 Thank you! Disclaimers: The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes. The author/producer of these content shall not and will not be responsible for any form of financial/physical/assets losses incurred from trades executed from the derived conclusion of the individual from these content shared. Thank you, and please do your due diligence before any putting on any trades!
TVC:DXYLong
by Shadowing_The_Big_Boys
Educational : Diversification, systematic vs unsystematic riskWhen it comes to investing and trading, risk is a constant factor that requires careful consideration. Let's explore the concepts of systematic and non-systematic risk: Deeper Dive Market risk and non-diversifiable risk are other names for systematic risk. It is the kind of risk that is intrinsic to the entire market or a particular area within it and cannot be completely avoided by diversification. This means that you cannot totally protect yourself from systematic risk, regardless of how diversified your investment portfolio is. There are many ways of mitigating risk in the market but due to the nature of the market there is no way to completely eliminate this risk element. There will also be a certain level of risk that you need to account for. Unpredictability: The unpredictability of systemic risk is one of its difficult elements. These risk factors frequently come as a surprise and can appear quickly, making it challenging to plan for their effects. Even seasoned investors can be caught off guard by events like global economic crises or political turmoil because of the intricate network of interconnected factors that affect financial markets. There is also the fact that markets are inherently fractal. You can read more about this in my publication on how the market is fractal. (Will be in related ideas) Unsystematic Risk on the other hand refers to the risk that is specific to a particular company, industry, or asset and can be mitigated through diversification. Unlike systematic risk, which affects the entire market, unsystematic risk is unique to individual entities and can be reduced or eliminated by spreading investments across different assets. Some of these risk might be in individual companies or assets but do not have a widespread impact on the entire market. Examples include management changes, product recalls, lawsuits, technological innovations, and changes in consumer preferences. These factors can significantly influence the performance of a single company's stock or asset. There is also sector or industry specific risk. If you work for a company that produces technical indicators, changes in regulations affecting the financial industry or a downturn in the technology sector could impact the company's performance. Investing solely in one sector exposes your portfolio to a higher degree of unsystematic risk. Unsystematic risk can be mitigated using many strategies. Two popular methods listed below. Asset Allocation or portfolio diversification: Allocating your investments across different asset classes (stocks, bonds, real estate, etc.) can help mitigate the impact of unsystematic risk. Different asset classes may respond differently to market events. Where one asset starts to go down another might start to go up and the fall and rise of these assets might be at different severity allowing you the flexibility to deploy risk management strategies to maximise on the rising asset Hedging: Using financial derivatives like options and futures contracts can provide a way to hedge against specific systematic risks, such as currency fluctuations or interest rate changes. Diversification in one of the big factors in reducing your risk. As the diagram shows the more diversify the portfolio becomes the less subject it is to unsystematic risk but you will eventually get to a equalising point where you still have to account for systematic risk. It is important to note that diversifying your portfolio is not just simply investing in as many assets or industries as possible. This process needs to be a calculated application. If not, what can happen is that you fill your porfolio with random assets and stocks that end up having bad correlation between each other causing you to lose. When you buy on one asset you will lose on another constantly making it hard for you to find and edge/alpha
COINBASE:ETHUSDEducation
by ChristopherDownie
2
EU at last support,if can bounce might reverseWe could be seeing usd to turn weak this week...Watching it first. **Find out more from my Tradingview Stream this week** *************************************************************************************** Hello there! If you like my analysis and it helped you ,do give me a thumbs ups on tradingview! 🙏 And if you would like to show further support for me, you can gift me some coins on tradingview! 😁 Thank you! Disclaimers: The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes. The author/producer of these content shall not and will not be responsible for any form of financial/physical/assets losses incurred from trades executed from the derived conclusion of the individual from these content shared. Thank you, and please do your due diligence before any putting on any trades!
by Shadowing_The_Big_Boys
SOYB- the soybean ETF moves on buying pressure LONGOn the 4H Chart, SOYB has moved above both tthe near and intermediate term POC lines of the respective volume profiles. Upward price volatility above the running mean on the relative volatility indicator. In confluence pric emoved above the mean basis band of the double Bollinger band. Fundamentally, supply-demand imbalances including the collapse of the Black Sea shipping deal as bad actor Russia continues to inflict chaos has a ripple effect throughout agricultural commodity markets. Soybean prices are not following the chaos and volatility of the general markets like AMEX and NASDAQ but rather they follow the beat of their own drum like seasonality crop yields shipping costs and others. This make an alternative to avoid going heavy into topping or sinking general markets. They allow diversification not unlike adding bonds to a portfolio when trying to weather the storm. Given the narrow trading range I will play this with some call options If you would like my idea of an excellent call option trade please leave a comment. See also my ideas on WEAT and CORN. se to expire after the harvest and into the planting in in Brazil.
AMEX:SOYBLong
by AwesomeAvani