GBP/JPY Short Opportunity: Capitalizing on Channel Structure andI have created this GBP/JPY short market idea due to the favorable technical setup observed in the chart. The currency pair has been trading within a downward channel and the previous high presents an ideal point of entry for a short position. The liquidity at the previous high, indicated by the volume profile, adds to the confluence of factors supporting this trade idea. The downward channel structure combined with the high liquidity at the previous high provides a strong basis for my decision to initiate a short position in the GBP/JPY market.
Please note that this is not investment advice and past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Trading always carries risk and it's important to conduct thorough research and analysis before making any trading decisions. Thank you for your attention.
Risk
Key week reversal on the gold marketThe key week reversal and break of a 2-month uptrend all point to a deeper sell-off for the gold market short term.
Disclaimer:
The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
Learn Risk to Reward Ratio | Forex Trading Basics
Hey traders,
Planning your every trade, you should know in advance the profit that you are aiming to make and the maximum amount of money you are willing to lose.
In this educational article, we will discuss risk reward ratio - the tool that is used to compare your potentials losses and profits.
Let's start with an example. Imagine you see a good buying opportunity on EURUSD. You quickly identify a safe entry point, your take profit level and stop loss.
From that trade you are aiming to make 100 pips with a maximum allowable loss of 50 pips.
To calculate a risk to reward ratio for this trade, you simply should divide a potential gain by a potential loss:
R/R ratio = 100 / 50 = 2
In that particular example, risk to reward ratio equals 2 meaning that potential gain outperform a potential loss by 2.
Let's take another example.
This time, you decide to short USDJPY.
From a desirable entry point, you can get 75 pips with a potential loss of 150 pips.
Risk to reward ratio for this trade is 75 divided by 150 or 0.5.
Such a ratio means that potential loss outperform a potential gain by 2.
Risk to reward ratio can be positive or negative.
If the ratio is bigger than 1 it is considered to be positive meaning that a potential gain outperforms a potential loss.
If the ratio is less than 1, it is called negative so that potential loss is bigger than potential risk.
Knowing the average risk to reward ratio for your trades, you can objectively calculate the required win rate for keeping a positive trading performance.
With R/R ratio = 0.5
2 winning trades recover 1 losing trade.
You need at least 70% win rate to cover losses of your trading.
With R/R ratio = 1
1 winning trade, recover 1 losing trade.
You need at least 50% win rate to compensate your losses.
With R/R ratio = 2
1 winning trade recovers 2 losing trades.
You need at least 35% win rate to cover losses of your trading.
Trading involves extremely high risk. Risk to reward ratio is a number one risk management tool for limiting your risks. Calculating that and knowing your win rate, you can objectively decide whether a trade that you are planning to take is worth taking.
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I would lie to you that I am very special!This is an event that has spread all over the real and virtual space these days
I am better than you, more beautiful than you, smarter than you
But the reality is something else
But we know the truth!
You and I are human, we have our merits and demerits, we all lied, we were all kind, we were both good and bad!
we are equal ..
With this introduction, I wanted to get here that we in the financial markets are involved with an equal scale of types of risk
It means that if I am facing some risks, you are also facing almost the same risks!
So, of course, if we are profitable but have a low win rate, or vice versa, we have a high win rate, but we may not be profitable in the long term.
Accepting this risk is the most basic step of entering the market.
I think money management and risk management are the only keys to success
Our learnings about technical and fundamental analysis only play a role in reducing or increasing the risk of our trade!
Consider the Long-Term ChartI'm not going to call if the bottom is in or "not so fast" but just want to point out that we may only be halfway through a significant long-term downturn. It's concerning to me that RSI has broken significantly below 50 for the first time since the market recovered from the lows in early 2009. It's also concerning that price looks like it wants to retest the 50-mo. EMA after seemingly finding support a couple months ago. There's still considerable downside risk to the 200-mo. EMA where it has found long-term support in the past and it also happens to currently line up with a double bottom with the covid panic low from early 2020. Will it go down to the 200-mo EMA now? I'm not sure, I'm just saying that it could and you need to be prepared for that. I do know that if it continues to drop it would be a blood bath down at those levels and also a great long-term buying opportunity in my opinion (it could find support above, at or below the 200-mo EMA and an interesting level would be the top from the tech bubble around 2000 which lines up with a period of sideways consolidation from 2015-2016.
Volume of trade enterThe volume of trading in relation to your capital play an important role in emotional liabilities such greed and fear.
Greed let you execute large volume with high risk
Fear let you out of the market even when you have a clear setup and edge.
The low volume of trading plan play an important role in attenuation of greed and fear gradually.
With time you will find yourself a good player in the money game.
The low volume of your trading master your plan ,execution and psychology.
It help you how make money with low risk and high profit and how to catch the trend from the beginning.
Learn The HIDDEN Costs of Trading
In this educational article, we will discuss the hidden costs of trading.
1 - Brokers' Commissions
Trading commission is the brokers' fee for opening a trading position.
Usually, it is calculated based on the size of the trade.
Even though most of the traders believe that trading commissions are too low to even count them, the fact is that trading on consistent basis and opening a couple of trading positions weekly, the composite value of commissions may cut a substantial part of our profits.
2 - Education
Of course, most of the trading basics can be found on the Internet absolutely for free.
However, the more experienced you become, the harder it is to find the materials. So you usually should pay for the advanced training.
Moreover, there is no guarantee that the course/coaching that you purchase will improve your trading, quite often traders go through multiple courses/coaching programs before they become consistently profitable.
3 - Spreads
Spread is the difference between the sellers' and buyers' prices.
That difference must be compensated by a trader if one wished to open a trading position.
In highly liquid markets, the spreads are usually low and most of the traders ignore them.
However, being similar to commissions, spreads may cut the substantial part of the overall profits.
4 - Time
When you begin your trading journey, it is not possible to predict how much it will take to become a consistently profitable trader.
Moreover, there is no guarantee that you will become one.
One fact is true, you should spend a couple of years before you find a way to trade profitably, and as we know, the time is money. More time you sacrifice on trading, less time you have on something else.
5 - Swaps
Swap is the fee you pay for transferring a position overnight.
Swap is based on a difference between the interests rates of the currencies that are in a pair that you trade.
Occasionally, swaps can even be positive, and you can earn on holding such positions.
However, most of the time the swaps are negative and the longer you hold your trades, the more costly your trading becomes.
The brokers' commissions, spreads and swaps compose a substantial cost of our trading positions. Adding into the equation the expensive learning materials and time spent on practicing, trading becomes a very expensive game to play.
However, knowing in advance these hidden costs, the one can better prepare himself for a trading journey.
❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section.
Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Our Trading ManifestoHello everyone! In this post we will present and explain our trading system.
Our trading system condensates everything we have learned from hard work, study and even harder lessons received in these years of trading. It is constantly evolving and updating, we are always ready to question some aspects of our system and research tools and strategies that can improve it.
We will distinguish and explain three different aspects of which the system is composed: Analysis, Execution and Research.
Analysis
The analytical part concerns all the tools and the strategies that we use to formulate an hypothesis on the direction of the market, and consequently develop a trading strategy.
A trading strategy is composed by:
-an Invalidation Level: a price level that, if crossed, proves our hypothesis wrong. This is the limit level at which stop losses can be set.
-a set of Entry Points/Levels: composed by price levels of chart points that according to our analysis can trigger the move that we are hypothesizing.
-a set of Target Points/Levels: composed by price levels of chart points where the move that we are hypothesizing can end.
Once a trading strategy is determined, it will be implemented in the executive part.
But on what is our analysis based?
Elliott Wave Theory, Pattern Trading and Sentiment Analysis.
We believe that the chart encodes all the information available. News and events are priced in the market instantaneously. The fundamentals are revealed simultaneously with the price action.
Any news or fundamental consideration is just one piece of the puzzle. Price is the synthesis of the result.
Price moves because of mass psychological dynamics inducing people to buy and sell. These dynamics are observable in the sentiment and in the fundamentals, and manifest themselves in chart patterns. The composition of chart patterns forms Elliott Waves structures.
We don't use this approach as a mix of independent tools, but in a holistic and comprehensive approach. We analyze the wave structure of the market starting from higher timeframes, assessing probabilities of different scenarios by analyzing chart patterns and using different tools related to the sentiment, such as Smart Money Indicator, Volume Profiles, Order Blocks, etc. We use the same approach in smaller timeframes to set the trading strategy (Entries, Targets and Invalidation Level).
Execution
The executive part of our trading system involves risk management, placing orders in the market, and managing active trades.
Once we have developed a trading strategy, we have a set of entries, a set of targets and an invalidation level. We have to use them to define a Trading Plan.
Here is the first rule of risk management: we can not lose more than 1.5% of the trading capital for each trading plan.
You don't have to depend on one trade. One trade should not be decisive. Trading must not be funny. This is the only way to decrease your biases and your emotional involvement.
So in a Trading Plan we decide how many trades to open, how much risk to allocate on each trade (NOT MORE THAN 1.5% TOTAL), at what price execute the trade, and where to set stop losses.
No stop loss can be set above the invalidation level. If prices reaches the invalidation level we are OUT. No matter if prices then follows the hypothesized direction, market will always provide other opportunities.
We also plan where to take profits at the pre-determined Target Levels.
Research
The research part of our system is our constantly updating and challenging our knowledge studying new tools, approaches, strategies. Knowledge is dynamic and always updating. You never stop learning.
We will post all our analysis and trades. Stay tuned and happy trading! :)
Letters to a Young TraderMy dear self,
I am here once again to remind you not to give up on your pursuit. Of course, it's a great one you have chosen and you need to put in the work required to get there.
Many before you have walked the same path you're on today and emerged successful and you can too.
There will come bad days and you'll question yourself about the path you've chosen. You'll need words of wisdom to guide you.
You'll find nothing more helpful than the Bible.
Make it your best friend and carry it with you at all times. It'll help you more than you'll realize.
In the beginning stages of your development, everything will seem impossible to do and I want you to know it's normal to feel that way right nom.
Give yourself time to grow and let experience teach you. You can't learn it in one day. You'll get it at the right time.
The greatest lesson you'll learn as a developing trader is when not to do something and that will separate you from the rest of them park.
Your focus right now shouldn't be everyday trading.
Just because you have time to sit in front of the charts doesn't mean you should trade.
Finally, you should have low expectations and allow time for your growth.
Trading is a numbers game and once you learn how to manipulate the numbers, you'll find out that you don't need to do a lot to be successful.
It's always a pleasure to write you.
Yours;
The Source Trader
✅TRADING ONE PAIR ONLY✅
“TO TRADE, OR NOT TO TRADE A SINGLE CURRENCY PAIR. THAT IS THE QUESTION…”
🧿MULTIPLE CURRENCY PAIRS
Easier to recover from losses on a given currency pair
Less likely to experience not seeing any setups for a whole day/week
Better understanding of pair correlations required
Can be more distracting
🧿SINGLE CURRENCY PAIR
No risk of trading correlated pairs
Better ability to focus
Feeling of understanding the price movements more
Can be a struggle to stick to ONE pair
Feeling of missing out when big moves happen on other pairs
✅HOW TO TRADE SINGLE CURRENCY PAIR:
🔲Step 1: Pick Your Currency Pair
▪️Is the pair active when I intend to trade it?
Even though the Foreign Exchange market is open 24/5, some pairs may be less traded at some specific times. Refer to "When To Trade Forex To Maximize Your Lifestyle & Profit?"
▪️Do you understand the currency pair you want to trade?
If you trade a pair with your country's currency, your chances of understanding how the price of the pair fluctuates might be higher. You will know what's going on and might even be able to know where the currency is heading (we are talking of fundamental analysis here...).
▪️Is the pair too or not enough volatile for you?
Don't be surprised to see big swings in GBP/JPY or GBP/NZD because those pairs are considered more volatile. Some traders like it because the profits usually come quickly, but stopped out trades can be more frequent.On the other hand, a pair like USD/CNY will have some inactivity periods and that might be frustrating.
🔲Step 2: Plan Your Trading
Good strategies are abstract and should work on any currency pair, however, since you have decided to trade one pair only, you have the privilege of tailoring you strategy to the particular pair, taking into the account it’s volatility, average likelihood of fakeouts vs breakouts, how trending it is on average etc..
🔲Step 3: Stay Consistent
Stick to the plan for at least a month. You might start the month feeling excited. You might get discouraged because you've taken too many or too few trades two weeks in.No one cares. Stick to your decision.At the end of the month, two things will happen:
1. You'll have built more confidence in your ability to remain consistent.
2. You'll have performed an experiment and will be able to say what works vs. what doesn't.
Those are two great things for someone who's looking to grow as a Forex trader.
Thanks for reading bro, you are the best☺️
✅Gimme a like and the Gods of Trading will favour you this week👍
Dear followers, let me know, what topic interests you for new educational posts?
BZYR: Potential long term investment - with riskI've become interested in BZYR which trades only OTC at this time. Why is this OTC stock of high importance for long term investors? In order to set this out my post is broken into various parts:
1 - Introduction
2 - The historical battles
3 - Efficacy of a cancer treatment
4 - Summary
5 - The risk to reward for long term investors.
The above cannot possibly avoid referring to organisations and materials in the public domain - as matters of fact and truth before the courts.
Introduction:
The founder has discovered a treatment for cancers that cannot be treated by conventional treatments, that is better than anything out there at this time. The research has been in the public domain for the last 30-odd years. The discovery is called Antineoplastons - which is a combination of various peptides and other 'chemicals'.
Historical battles:
The research evidence for efficacy has not been faulted. The FDA (in the public domain) took the founder through 4 grand juries. The case failed at the Texas State Supreme Court, in an attempt to remove the founder's medical licence.
The whole story runs very deep back to the 1980s - but despite strenous efforts to shut down the treatment (and the founder), it persists to this day, through the endless legal battles. Staying within the 'House Rules' means that I am cautious not to breach.
In 1982 the FDA stated " never have and never will approve a new drug to an individual but only to a large pharmaceutical firm with unlimited finances ." Therefrom sprung one of the most severe fights in FDA history. dealings with the FDA commenced in 1983 at that point the FDA commenced a civil action to try to close the clinic and stop all patients from receiving the medicine before the judge in this case.
Before the judge in the 1983 court case had announced her ruling the FDA sends her a letter warning her in advance " if this court declines to grant the injunction sought by the government thus permitting continued manufacture and distribution of antineoplastons the government would then be obliged to pursue other less efficient remedies such as actions for seizure and condemnation of the drugs or criminal prosecution of individuals. "
Efficacy of cancer treatment with Antineoplastons:
Mainstream cancer research organisations will say " There is not enough reliable evidence to use it as a cancer treatment " or that the treatment is ' experimental '. But this is not true. If there has been an experiment, it was fully under the watch of the FDA, and the results are beyond belief for success.
Double-blind randomised controlled trials in Japan have proved the superior efficacy of the treatment (which is not 100% but far better than what exists).
Summary
Antineoplaston treatment has weathered all battles for over 30 years. It's not going away. It's survival suggests something novel and unique has been discovered. Why is this treatment surviving at all? Why all the battles against it? Those are matters for you to ponder.
The risk to reward for long term investors:
The weeky chart will show that BZYR (an OTC stock) is near rock bottom and possibly in an accummulation phase. Note carefully that OTC stocks are not on conventional exchanges like NYSE and NASDAQ.
The potential growth over a 5 year period could be significant in relation to a fixed risk of loss which should be an affordable one, if more research confirms it's specific kind of efficacy. This could be the next 'Amazon' of the biomedical world.
As always I emphasise the risk - and I am unable to provide tips on how to manage that. Disclaimers apply.
Bitcoin Shorts With Targets based on riskThis is the case for shorters. Targets based on actual risk at the time.
Bitcoin has gone up to almost liquidate 3x positions that have sold the current bottom. There was not been a 5% drop until price has topped out. Shorters are in panic and praying for price to reach 17.5k to 18k again so they can exit their short.
Dogecoin; For now forget about ELON MUSK supportAfter a huge run Dogecoin needs to step back before its major move.
Wait for 0.05-0.07$ as a fair price area, targets will be beyond imagination of 99% of traders (just comparable with Starships).
WARNING:
DOGECOIN is a very manipulative currency, It is absolutely high risk. Do everything on your own risk
Trade with Confidence: 5 Day Trading Psychology Rules to Embrace Set clear goals and limits:
Before you begin trading, it's important to have a clear idea of what you hope to accomplish and how much risk you are willing to take on. This will help you make informed decisions and avoid making impulsive trades based on emotions.
Control your emotions:
Day trading can be stressful, and it's easy to let emotions like fear or greed influence your decisions. It's important to stay level-headed and stick to your pre-determined trading plan, rather than getting caught up in the heat of the moment.
Use stop-loss orders:
A stop-loss order is a type of order that closes a trade automatically once it reaches a certain price. This can help you minimize losses if the market moves against you.
Diversify your portfolio:
Diversification is a risk management strategy that involves spreading your investments across a variety of asset classes. This can help you manage risk and potentially earn higher returns over the long term.
Continuously educate yourself:
The world of day trading is constantly evolving, so it's important to stay up-to-date on the latest trends and techniques. This can help you make informed decisions and improve your chances of success.
Learn How to Apply a Position Size Calculator
Hey traders,
In this educational article, I will teach you how to apply a position size calculator and calculate a lot size for your trades depending on a desired risk.
First of all, let's briefly discuss why do you need a position size calculator.
Even though, most of the newbie traders trade with the fixed lot, the truth is that fixed lot trading is considered to be very risky.
Depending on the trading instrument, time frame and a desired stop loss, the risks from one trade to another are constantly floating. With the constant fluctuations of losses per trade, it is very complicated to control your risks and drawdowns.
A lot size calculation, however, allows you to risk the desired percentage of your capital per trade, limiting the maximum you can potentially lose.
A lot size is calculated with a position size calculator.
It is integrated in some trading platforms like cTrader. If it is absent in yours, there are a lot of free ones available on the internet.
Step 1:
Measure a pip value of your stop loss.
It is the distance from your entry level to your stop loss level.
In the example on the picture, the stop loss is 290 pips.
Step 2:
Open a position size calculator
Step 3:
Fill the form.
Inputs: Account currency, account balance, desired risk %, stop loss in pips, currency pair.
In the example, we are trading with USD account. Its value is $20000. Trading instrument is EURUSD.
Step 4:
Calculate a lot size
The system will calculate a lot size for your trade.
0.069 standard lot in our example.
Taking a trade on EURUSD with $20000 deposit and 290 pips stop loss, you will need 0.069 lot size to risk 1% of your trading account.
Learn to apply a position size calculator. That is the must-use tool for a proper risk management.
❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section.
Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
MONEY MANAGEMENT: The MOST Important Aspect of TradingIf you are a professional trader or plan to become one, Money Management is your #1 job. You could be the best chart reader or statement analyzer in the world but if you have poor money management you will still fail. In order to succeed you first have to last, and to last in the trading business you must be able to handle risk and manage it accordingly.
How you handle Money Management comes down to a few simple things:
Risk limits
- This consist of knowing your risk per trade, your max drawdown, and buying power limitations.
○ Risk per trade: This is the amount you are willing to lose if the trade goes against you and stops out (remember to always have a stop loss). Many traders refer to this as Risk Units or simply 'R'. This should be a defined amount that does not vary based on emotion. If you do use different risk for different trades you should have that clearly defined in your trading plan otherwise each trade should be the same. Risk per trade should be around 1% for experienced traders and $10 for new traders as they work towards slowly raising risk with consistency.
○ Max drawdown: This is the max amount you are able to lose per timeframe. For example, a day trader may have a max drawdown of 3R per day, 7R per week, and 13R per month. Max drawdown demands that if you lose that amount in that timeframe you are to be done trading until the next one. This helps traders from spiraling out of control and blowing up a trading account.
○ Buying Power Limitations: Knowing how many trades you are able to take at one time will help define your strategy.
Expectations
- This consist of knowing your expectancy and timeline
○ Expectancy: Your trade expectancy is the most important stat in all of trading. It tells you what you expect to make per trade. In order to properly manage risk you have to be sure that the strategy is worth it. The expectancy stat is how you do just that. For more info about expectancy check out my post on it here
○ Timeline: Everything takes time. Trading is no different. Having a realistic expectation about your timeline and how much you are going to make is a critical element in helping traders stay focused on their goals and not fall into a get rich quick scheme. If you expect your trading career will take 3-5 years to become profitable you will manage your money much better than someone who expects full time profits in under 1 year.
Yourself
- This consist of knowing your personality and trading plan
○ Personality: What is your personality like? Are you a jittery person or are you robotic. Knowing this will help build a management that you can trust and are able to follow.
○ Trading Plan: Make sure your trading plan fits your trading style. You have to take many things into consideration here such as time constraints, goals, and personality. It takes time to figure out what works for you.
If you can determine how to handle these three factors then you will be well positioned to not struggle with money management. After you have the fundamentals written in your trading plan all it comes down to is staying disciplined and following the rules set for yourself. Clearly define your limits, have an expectation, know thyself.
Thanks for reading, follow @Jlaing for more educational post about Money Management, Trading Stats, and more. I also stream a stock day trading chat room every morning at 9:15 EST right here on TradingView, come check it out and say what's up.