POTENTIAL LONG TRADE ON NZDUSD- Strong previous support level
- Retraced off a key fib level (0.764)
- Decent risk/reward ratio of above 2:1
- Showing signs of reversal due to bullish candle with a long wick.
- Will wait for price to break the next fib level (0.618) for confirmation that price will continue north.
- Will bring stop loss to break even when price reaches at least 90% of target 1.
- Will bring stop loss to 0.5 Fib level if prices reaches 50% of target 2.
- Will close trade early if price hits the ascending channel resistance line.
Risk_reward
EURUSD 4 HOUR SHORTtextbook setup. Price has failed to break the 1.10 psychological barrier several times so this could be a nice level to go short with a nice 1:3 risk to reward. if price does manage to break out of this barrier then next resistance to look to get short is at 1.11294 which is also in confluence with the 61.8 fib level.
BAC Great Risk/Reward Trade Idea Here is my take on how to trade BAC's ascending triangle. If I were to take a position at the current price of about 15.68 and set a stop between 14.92 (on the tight sight) and 14.72 (on the looser end) I would be risking anywhere from .70 to .90. Say I take a stop at .80, well my target is actually below the previous high ranging from 17.5- 18.0, making my profit anywhere from 1.82- 2.32. If I were to lock in a $2 profit, I would have a risk reward ratio 1:2.5. Not to shabby. Where did I come up with these targets? Well if you take a look at the chart you can see the rising trendline where higher highs are being created. If price were to break below 15.00 that trendline would be broken. However you have to be weary of fake outs. Instead of setting a tight stop at 14.99, I decided to take 14.72 and draw a line in the sand so to speak. By this point Three additional critical points of support would have been broken, and the case for the ascending triangle deteriorates. As for the profit target, it is VERY conservative. First of all if we saw follow through with the ascending triangle pattern you can expect 20-35% rise from the BREAKOUT point. However, because of fake outs and potential reversals, a conservative approach would be to lock in some profits at the first target price, and letting the rest ride to see if we get follow through with the ascending triangle pattern.
What chart should I analyze next? Comment below!
Monday Funday: CAI Pennant Pop; Strong Risk-Reward (8:1)This is one of my favorite trades. A clear pennant forming which will be looking to break around 2/3's the way through the triangle(that's my general rule of thumb, the more it trades into the apex the less decisive and powerful the break). Easy to read upside, a nice tight stop, with a good risk-reward. In addition the stock is relatively small and nimble, and lacks incessant news coverage which tends to dull technical patterns.
How to trade it?
- I would buy in half at $24.00, with a stop in at $23.54 below any solid support/50 ma. Roughly a 2.2 risk-reward into the upper resistance. Stochs look oversold and ready to turn around.
- A break here and I would buy in my second half, confident with my cushion below me. Be sure to look for a surge in volume to break the volume downtrend and confirm the break. Don't be surprised if it comes back down to retest as support. A full measured move of the base takes CAP to $27.60 for a whole trade ratio of about 8.1
- Given a breakout, a liberal trailing stop would be a good idea. $3.60 up to $0.45 down in a perfect world, cant beat that.
Harmonic Bullish cypher completedharmonic bullish cypher has completed at 161 extension level from previous swing. this same level is also a previous major support and resistance level on at least 5 timeframes. price has rejected this level nicely and i am now looking to ride the geometrical 61.8 retracement of A-D. target 1 is 50% and 2 is 61.8%
risk reward is 4
EURAUD - Two Gartleys One CypherLooks like EURAUD is giving multiple signals to sell. RSI is now in the overbought zone. But which pattern to take?
Bearish Gartley(Blue)
Entry - 1.45153
Stop - 1.46240
Target 1 - 1.43379
Target 2 - 1.42283
Bearish Gartley(Purple)
Entry - 1.43251
Stop - 1.43400
Target 1 - 1.41859
Target 2 - 1.40999
Bearish Cypher(Orange)
Entry - 1.43101
Stop - 1.43250
Target 1 - 1.41767
Target 2 - 1.40942
Fantastic Risk Profile on EURAUDNothing fancy here, just a good old fashion Gartley pattern. I'm actually not too big of a fan of the Gartley. My philosophy as a trader is built around risk/reward profiles so if I had to pick an Advanced Pattern to be my favorite I'd have to go with the Bat. However, because we have such a deep B leg retracement in this particular case our D leg is going to extend almost all the way to the X starting point offering us a fantastic opportunity to involve ourselves in a trade that has very low risk and very high potential reward.
Does this mean the trade will win? Who knows, what it does mean is that I can afford to be wrong 3 times on a setup like this and have one winner cover all of those losses. Now that's my type of profile.
More on this setup in this weeks WEEKEND REVIEW video "The Stop & Reverse Technique" www.youtube.com
GBPAUD: Structure Trade With Amazing Risk RewardThis morning I recorded a video looking at a bullish Gartley opportunity that I missed. By the time I got my orders in price action had move well beyond the original entry point offering a much better risk/reward. Hours later we are still holding on tot he very last bit of structure and are attempting to put in a double bottom depending on the close oft his current candle.
Between the structure level, advanced pattern, RSI being overbought, the retest of structure and the RSI divergence. I'd say this is a heck of an opportunity to get long. Just look at the potential risk reward. Targets a little lower at structure still make it more than worth it.