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GMXGMX/USDT Analysis 📊 Introduction GMX token is considered one of the high-risk assets in the cryptocurrency market, as its relatively low market cap leads to significant price volatility. However, GMX has attracted considerable attention from investors due to its high growth potential in areas related to DeFi and decentralized contracts. In this analysis, we will examine GMX's price structure within a descending channel and explore the possible scenarios ahead. 🔎 Technical Analysis Overall Trend in the Descending Channel Channel Structure: GMX is currently moving within a descending channel and has experienced a sharp price correction after hitting the upper boundary of the channel. Key Levels: Resistance Zone (Yellow): The range of $26.50 - $27.26, a break above which could pave the way for a bullish move. Midline of the Descending Channel: This level plays a crucial role in determining the current trend, and breaking above it would be a strong indication of buyer dominance. Bullish Scenario (Breakout of Resistance Zone) If the price breaks the yellow resistance zone and stabilizes above it, a bullish move is likely to gain momentum. After breaking both the resistance and the midline of the channel, the price will approach the upper boundary of the channel. A breakout here could lead to further upward movement towards target levels. Take Profit Targets (TP): TP1: $44.57 - $47.86 TP2: $57.68 - $61.98 TP3: $77.88 - $82 🔍 Key Insight: Due to GMX’s low market cap, a significant influx of liquidity could push the price even beyond these targets. Relative Strength Index (RSI) The RSI moving above the midline serves as a critical confirmation, signaling bullish momentum alongside the breakout from the resistance zone and the midline of the descending channel. Volume An increase in trading volume during the breakout of the resistance zone and midline is crucial. High volume can prevent fake breakouts and provide confirmation for the continuation of the bullish trend. 🔒 Risk Management Key Points Suggested Entry Point: Enter after the breakout of the yellow resistance zone ($26.50 - $27.26) and price stabilization above it. Stop Loss (SL): Place the stop loss below the lower boundary of the descending channel to mitigate the risk of potential volatility. Trade Volume Management: Given GMX’s high volatility and inherent risk, the trade volume should be adjusted according to the investor's risk tolerance. ✨ Final Conclusion The analysis suggests that GMX token has significant growth potential, especially if key resistance levels are broken and new liquidity flows into the market. However, monitoring technical confirmations (such as RSI and trading volume) and staying alert to market trends are crucial for successful trade entry.
Long
by alizeynali69
Axie Infinity (AXS)🎯 Introduction AXS (Axie Infinity Shards) is the native token of the Axie Infinity ecosystem, a popular blockchain-based game operating on the "Play-to-Earn" model. Players can earn AXS tokens by breeding, battling, and trading digital creatures known as "Axies." This token is also used in governance mechanisms, staking, and in-game transactions. The growth in AXS’s value is tied to the ongoing development of the game and its wider adoption within the cryptocurrency world. 📊 AXS Technical Analysis Current Status: On the weekly timeframe, AXS is in a long-term range-bound zone: 📈 Range High: Red zone (11.186 - 12.605) 📉 Range Low: Gray zone (3.840 - 4.414) Key Support and Resistance Zones: Daily Support: Purple zone (5.581 - 5.932) This zone has acted as a key support level. If lost, the price is likely to fall toward the lower range (gray zone). Daily Resistance: Yellow zone (6.910 - 7.328) Breaking through this level could trigger a price move towards the range high (red zone). Upcoming Scenarios: 🟢 Bullish Scenario: If the purple support zone holds and the yellow resistance is broken: Move towards the range high (red zone). A breakout above the red zone will lead to price targets based on Fibonacci levels: 🎯 TP1: 20.007 - 24.056 🎯 TP2: 41.929 - 48.315 🎯 TP3: 67.896 - 77.108 Important Note: At each of these targets, profit-taking 💵 is strongly advised. 🔴 Bearish Scenario: If the purple support zone is lost, the price may drop towards the lower range (gray zone). 🎯 Suggested Entry Points: Break above the daily yellow resistance with a stop loss below the gray zone. Break above the red resistance with a stop loss below the purple zone. Indicators and Volume: RSI: Crossing above the midpoint of the RSI may indicate a bullish move. Entering the Overbought region could lead to sharp upward movements 🚀. 📊 Volume Analysis: Increased volume during resistance breaks is crucial; otherwise, there’s a higher risk of false breakouts. 📌 Summary: AXS is currently at a critical level. Price behavior in relation to the identified support and resistance zones will determine the future trend. Effective risk management through stop-loss and close monitoring of trading volume are key to success in trading this coin. 💡 Recommendation: Always consider the overall market conditions and any related news regarding the Axie Infinity project before making trading decisions.
Long
by alizeynali69
Double Top Breakdown: Measured Move Targets 2021 Top**Double Top Pattern with Red Box and 2021 Top as Key Levels** 1. **Pattern Overview**: - The **double top** is clearly defined with two peaks above the red box, signaling a significant bearish reversal. - The **red box** represents the **neckline**, a critical level that has been breached, confirming the bearish pattern. 2. **Measured Move Alignment**: - The **measured move from the double top breakdown** suggests a potential target that aligns closely with the **2021 top**, reinforcing it as a major support zone. - This adds confluence to the setup, suggesting that the 2021 top may act as the next significant area of interest for buyers. **Key Levels and Roles**: - **Red Box**: Previously a support level, now acting as resistance after the breakdown. - **2021 Top**: Positioned near the measured move target, it is likely to act as a strong support if the bearish move extends. **Indicators Supporting the Bearish Case**: 1. **Parabolic SAR**: - Bearish dots above the price confirm downward momentum. 2. **RSI**: - Momentum leans bearish but remains above oversold levels, leaving room for further downside. 3. **Volume**: - Weakening volume during the breakdown confirms reduced buyer interest and validates the bearish move. **Scenarios**: **Bearish Case**: - A retest of the **red box (neckline)** could act as a resistance zone, confirming the breakdown and initiating further downside. - The measured move target aligns with the **2021 top**, adding significance to this level as the next potential area of support. **Bullish Case (Invalidation)**: - Reclaiming the red box as support would invalidate the double top and open the door for a potential reversal back toward the highs.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALShort
by vagada
OTHERS, 12H Technical Analysis of the Chart 1. **Key Levels and Fibonacci Retracement:** - **Resistance at 0.236 Fibonacci (352B):** The price is testing this level after a sharp rebound. This zone acts as a critical barrier for further upward momentum. - **Support at 0.382 Fibonacci (310B):** Recent dips have found support here, reinforcing it as a strong level. - **0.5 Fibonacci (270B):** Acts as a major intermediate support level if bearish pressure increases. - **Golden Ratio (0.618 at ~240B):** If price drops significantly, this zone could attract buyers. 2. **Moving Averages:** - **200-MA (Red Line):** The trend is now above the 200-MA, confirming a bullish bias. However, failure to hold above it during corrections would signal weakness. - Long-term **upward momentum** aligns with the MA slope but is losing steam near current resistance. 3. **Parabolic SAR:** - **Bearish Trend Confirmed** near the local top (circled area) indicates recent exhaustion. - **Bullish Reversal Potential**: SAR flipped back below the price, suggesting possible continuation if the 0.236 resistance breaks. 4. **Volume Analysis:** - Volume peaked during the rebound, signaling strong buyer interest. However, recent declining volume indicates waning momentum, raising caution near resistance. 5. **Momentum Indicators:** - **OBV (On-Balance Volume):** Flat OBV suggests no significant accumulation or distribution currently, aligning with consolidation at resistance. - **RSI (47.53):** Neutral zone, slightly tilting bearish after a failed breakout. RSI needs to break above 50 to confirm bullish strength. - **CMF (0.01):** Near-zero CMF shows minimal capital inflow, reflecting uncertainty about market direction. 6. **Market Structure:** - **Higher Lows**: Despite corrections, the market structure remains bullish, with higher lows forming since early November. - **Lower Highs at Resistance**: Multiple rejections at 0.236 Fibonacci show hesitance for a breakout, suggesting the market needs stronger catalysts. ### Conclusion: - **Bullish Scenario**: A breakout above 352B (0.236 Fibonacci) with volume confirmation could target higher levels around 400B. Watch for RSI breaking above 50 and OBV upticks. - **Bearish Scenario**: A failure to hold 0.236 resistance could see a retest of 310B (0.382 Fibonacci). A break below this support might lead to a larger correction toward the 0.5 level (270B). Recommendation: - **Aggressive Traders**: Look for confirmation of breakout above 352B before entering long positions. - **Conservative Traders**: Wait for a pullback to 310B or the 200-MA for better risk-reward. - Monitor **volume** and **RSI divergence** to gauge breakout strength or potential reversals.
CRYPTOCAP:OTHERS
by vagada
The Two Archetypes of TradersIn the trading world, markets move in cycles, and bearish conditions are no exception. Here's an educational breakdown of how traders can navigate these challenging times: 1. The Long-Term Holders (Investors) Mindset: Patience is their superpower. Goal: Accumulate assets during bearish trends by buying at key support levels and holding for future gains. Approach: Use the WiseOwl Indicator to identify areas of strong support and potential accumulation zones for strategic entries. 2. The Intraday Traders (Short-Term) Mindset: Adaptability and precision are crucial. Goal: Profit from short-term price movements, capitalizing on market volatility. Approach: Utilize the WiseOwl Indicator to pinpoint bearish momentum for short entries and clear exit levels, ensuring optimal risk management. Educational Example: WiseOwl Strategy in Action Let’s analyze Solana (SOL) on the 15-minute timeframe during a bearish market: Trend Identification: The WiseOwl Indicator highlights a confirmed downtrend with clear bearish signals. Entry Points: Short trade signals are generated at moments of significant bearish momentum. Risk Management: Stop loss and take profit levels, calculated using ATR-based logic, ensure disciplined trading. Takeaways for Traders 📉 Bearish Markets: Holders focus on identifying value areas for accumulation. Intraday traders capitalize on market volatility with precise entries and exits. Happy trading! 🚀 #WiseOwlIndicator #TradingEducation #BearMarket #SOLAnalysis #CryptoTrading
Education
by TraderOuss_LumaNex
1INCHUSDT Analysis | (DEX) aggregator on 12 chains The price is undergoing a correction, and potential **support levels** include: 1. **200-day MA (~$0.4181)**: A strong dynamic support level. 2. **Lower Bollinger Band (~$0.3356)**: Positioned within the green demand zone, potentially signaling oversold conditions if reached. 3. **Green Zone ($0.3240–$0.4181)**: A historical demand area that has previously supported price rebounds. Trend Indicator: - **PSAR**: Flipped red, confirming short-term bearish momentum. Oscillator Analysis: - **RSI**: At ~50, showing neutral momentum but with a downward slope, reflecting fading bullish strength. - **MACD**: Already crossed bearish, with a negative histogram confirming building selling pressure. - **OBV**: Declining, indicating reduced accumulation and increasing selling activity. Outlook: The **200-day MA**, **lower Bollinger Band**, and **green zone** are critical support levels. If these levels hold, a potential rebound could stabilize the trend. However, if broken, the price may correct further. Monitor MACD and OBV for signs of persistent selling pressure and RSI for potential oversold conditions. Stay cautious!
by vagada
XECUSDT Analysis | Layer-1 digital cash networkThe price is approaching key support levels: 1. **0.236 Fibonacci Level (~$0.0366)**: This level may act as immediate support. 2. **200-day MA (~$0.033)**: Positioned just below, providing additional dynamic support if the 0.236 Fib level breaks. Oscillator Analysis: - **RSI**: At ~38, indicating bearish momentum and approaching oversold conditions, which could lead to a potential bounce. - **MACD**: Bearish crossover with a deepening negative histogram, signaling ongoing selling pressure. - **OBV**: Trending lower, reflecting a decline in accumulation and increased distribution. Volume Analysis: Volume bars show a slight increase during the recent downside move, confirming bearish momentum. Watch for a reduction in selling volume near the support levels, which could indicate stabilization or a reversal. Outlook: If the **0.236 Fib level** holds, it could act as a springboard for a bounce. However, if broken, the **200-day MA** becomes the critical support to watch. Keep an eye on oscillators for potential oversold signals and volume trends for signs of buyer interest.
by vagada
LUNCUSDT Analysis | first native token of Terra blockchainThe price is currently testing the **0.5 Fibonacci retracement level** (black line) as a potential support zone. If this level fails, the **200-day MA** (red line) is the next significant support level to monitor. Oscillator Analysis: - **PSAR**: Flipped red, indicating bearish momentum. - **RSI**: Dropped to ~44, suggesting bearish momentum but not oversold, leaving room for further downside. - **MACD**: Bearish crossover, with the histogram deepening, confirming negative momentum. - **OBV**: Declining, signaling reduced buying pressure and increased selling activity. If the **0.5 Fib level** holds, it could provide a base for a rebound. However, if broken, the **200-day MA** will be critical for preventing a deeper correction. Monitor these levels closely!
by vagada
COQUSDT Analysis | #1 meme coin on AVAXThe **0.236 Fibonacci level** has been broken, signaling weakness in the current structure. The next key support lies at the **200-day MA** (red line), which could act as a strong area for price stabilization. - **RSI**: Dropped to ~48, showing weakening momentum and room for further downside. - **MACD**: Bearish crossover confirms selling pressure. - **OBV**: Declining, signaling reduced accumulation. If the **200-day MA** fails to hold, the structure may turn decisively bearish. For now, keep an eye on the **200-day MA** as the critical support zone!
BYBIT:10000COQUSDT.P
by vagada
AIDOGE | Bounce Potential: 200-Day MA and 0.236 Fib Hold Strong!**AIDOGEUSDT Analysis** The **200-day MA** (red line) is currently acting as strong **support**, with the price pulling back and holding above it after recent downside pressure. The market has also retraced to the **0.236 Fibonacci level**, which aligns with this critical support area. - **RSI**: At ~44, showing mild bearish momentum but not oversold. - **MACD**: Displays a bearish crossover, signaling potential short-term downside risk. As long as the **200-day MA** holds, this zone could serve as a base for a potential rebound. A breakdown below it would signal further downside. Stay prepared for both scenarios!
BYBIT:10000000AIDOGEUSDT.P
by vagada
TradeCityPro | XVS & Bitcoin : Key Levels and Insights👋Welcome to TradeCityPro! In this analysis, I want to review XVS for you. This token is the native token of the Venus project, which operates on the BSC network and specializes in the DeFi sector. It boasts the highest TVL on this network. This platform allows users to collateralize their assets and borrow funds proportionate to their collateral. Currently, the platform's TVL stands at $1.8 billion, and XVS ranks 361 on CoinMarketCap. 👑 Before analyzing XVS, it's better to take a look at Bitcoin to better understand the market conditions. The Bitcoin analysis is done on the 4-hour timeframe. ⏳ 4-Hour Timeframe: Correction Phase in Bitcoin On the 4-hour timeframe, after breaking the $72,771 resistance (the previous ATH), we witnessed a very sharp, high-momentum move up to $99,022. Currently, Bitcoin has entered a correction phase. The first significant support in this timeframe is $92,004, which overlaps with the 0.236 Fibonacci level. The price has already reached this level. At the same time, the SMA99 has also aligned with the candles in this area, turning this level into a very strong PRZ. ✨ The RSI oscillator has triggered divergence, exiting the lower Bollinger Band several times, which has eliminated the bullish momentum. However, the most important thing in a bullish market is that when the RSI approaches the 30 level, it often represents a good buying opportunity. Using the Bollinger Band indicator, we can better determine trend reversals and RSI triggers. However, all of these require price confirmation, which can be achieved through Dow Theory rules or short-term resistance breakouts. 📊 On the other hand, the volume of corrective candles is increasing, which is not a good sign for the correction's end and makes the bearish scenario more likely. 🔑 If the $92,004 support breaks, the next key support is $86,841, which aligns with the 0.382 Fibonacci level and is likely to serve as a major support during this correction. For now, I won't discuss other supports; if $86,841 is broken, I'll determine the rest later. ✅ XVS Analysis: Weekly and Daily Timeframes 📅 Weekly Timeframe: Long-Term Box On this timeframe, the price previously formed a long-term box between $3.17 and $9.19. After breaking this range, a new box was formed between $5.29 and $17.43, where the price currently trades in the lower half of the box and is struggling with resistance at $9.19. 🔼 The previous weekly candle was very strong and powerful but couldn't break the $9.19 level. The current candle is also rejecting from this level. For spot buying, breaking this resistance or $17.43 is suitable. The potential targets are $40.22 and $140.26, with $140.26 being the ATH for this coin. 📉 In case of a drop, the first support is at $5.29, and on the RSI, there is a significant support level at 39.32, which can prevent a price decline. If this support is broken, the next level is $3.17, the all-time low for this coin. 📅 Daily Timeframe: Strong Resistance Zone On the daily timeframe, the $9.19 resistance can be drawn as a range between $8.18 and $8.91, which is very important. Currently, the price is rejecting from $8.91 and has dropped to $8.18. 🔍 The main and significant support on this chart is the ascending trendline, which previously experienced a false breakout. If the price stabilizes below $8.18, the next corrective target will be reaching this trendline. 💣 If the trendline breaks, the next support is $5.98, which is a strong resistance since the market previously reversed from this level after a false trendline breakout and reached the $8.91 high. 🧩 If the RSI stabilizes above 66.27, the price can start pumping because it has already hit this level twice and been rejected. If the RSI breaks below 50, bearish momentum will enter the market, and the bearish scenario will strengthen. 📝 Final Thoughts This analysis reflects our opinions and is not financial advice. Share your thoughts in the comments, and don’t forget to share this analysis with your friends! ❤️
Long
by tradecitypro
5
Discipline Over MotivationSuccess in trading doesn't come from motivation—it comes from discipline. Motivation will get you started, but discipline will keep you consistent, even on the tough days." In trading, emotions often try to take control. Fear of missing out, revenge trading, or overconfidence can lead to poor decisions. Discipline means following your plan no matter how you feel. Consistency is the bridge between your trading plan and long-term results. Without it, even the best strategies can fail. How to Stay Disciplined? Define Your Rules: Have a clear entry, exit, and risk management plan before you trade. Track Your Performance: Use a journal to review trades—both wins and losses. Take Breaks: A tired mind leads to impulsive decisions. Detach from Outcomes: Focus on the process, not on winning every trade. Remember: The best traders aren't the most motivated—they're the most disciplined.
by Safaric
EURNZD the standout in Long-Currency's in Asia trade Wedesday Hi everyone, I got into this trade not long ago to the long-side, but as it has plenty of potential I thought I would share. On the 4HR timeframe, there is currently a bullish heads 'n' shoulders pattern adding some buying fuel. There was a recent pullback so a good time to enter if you are after a Long trade. On the chart, the indicator at the bottom is on-balance-volume which has had a good uptick today so far. This trade is also trend-friendly, this is a Daily chart and you will see the thicker white line which is the 200EMA, the thinner dark-blue is 50EMA and Crimson colour is 100EMA. The very thick white arrowed line is the heads n shoulders neckline where price has broken out this morning.
Long
by Easy_Explosive_Trading
When Does a $433.5 Million Settlement Become a Victory for Both In the complex landscape of corporate litigation, Alibaba's recent settlement presents a fascinating case study of modern business strategy. While the Chinese e-commerce giant agrees to pay $433.5 million to settle shareholder allegations, this decision might paradoxically represent a win-win scenario for both the company and its investors. The settlement, ranking among the top 50 largest securities class actions in U.S. history, raises intriguing questions about the balance between corporate governance and strategic business decisions. What makes this case particularly compelling is the mathematics of risk management. When faced with potential damages of $11.63 billion, Alibaba's decision to settle for $433.5 million reveals a sophisticated calculation of risk versus reward. This settlement, representing less than 4% of the maximum potential damages, demonstrates how modern corporations can transform legal challenges into strategic opportunities for resolution and renewal. The implications of this settlement extend far beyond Alibaba's balance sheet. As global markets increasingly scrutinize tech giants' practices, this case sets a precedent for how international corporations might navigate the complex intersection of antitrust regulations, shareholder rights, and market competition. The resolution suggests that in today's business environment, the true measure of corporate success might lie not in avoiding challenges, but in transforming them into opportunities for organizational evolution and stakeholder alignment.
NYSE:BABAShort
by signalmastermind
SILVER price shorting in Asian trade Thursday Gold and Silver price(s) are above their 200 period moving averages and their continued uptrend seems reasonable to happen in the short to perhaps medium term, before a pullback correction kicks-into-gear for the precious metals. So far during Thursday and as the London session begins around this time, Gold is up about 0.3% and Silver is down about -0.3%, so due to this divergence in price I took a Long in XAGUSD. It's only a 1:1 trade.
EIGHTCAP:XAGUSDLong
by Easy_Explosive_Trading
The 1% Rule: A Key to Long-Term Trading SuccessUnderstanding the 1% Risk Management Strategy in Trading Effective risk management is the backbone of successful trading, helping traders preserve capital and avoid emotional decision-making. The 1% risk management strategy is one of the most widely used approaches, aimed at limiting the potential loss on any single trade to 1% of your total trading capital. Let’s break down how this strategy works and why it’s essential for both novice and experienced traders. What Is the 1% Risk Rule? The 1% risk rule ensures that a trader never risks more than 1% of their account balance on a single trade. For example, if you have $20,000 in your account, you would limit your risk to $200 on any given trade. The idea behind this rule is to safeguard your account from catastrophic losses that could occur from consecutive losing trades . How to Apply the 1% Risk Rule To apply the 1% rule effectively, you need to combine position sizing with stop-loss orders. Here’s how you can implement this strategy: 1. Determine Your Account Risk: Calculate 1% of your trading capital. For example, with a $10,000 account, 1% equals $100. This is the maximum amount you’re willing to lose on a single trade. 2. Set a Stop-Loss: A stop-loss helps cap your losses at the 1% threshold. If you’re buying shares of a stock at $50 and decide on a stop-loss 1 point below, your “cents at risk” is $1 per share. If you’re willing to lose $100, you can buy 100 shares ($100 / $1 per share risk). 3. Position Sizing: The size of your trade depends on the risk per share. By determining your stop-loss level, you calculate how many shares you can buy to keep your total loss within the 1% limit. This process prevents you from taking excessively large positions that could lead to significant losses . Why the 1% Rule Is Effective The 1% rule is effective because it keeps your potential losses small relative to your total capital. Even during periods of losing streaks, this strategy prevents large drawdowns that could lead to emotional trading or complete account wipeout. For instance, if you experience a string of ten losing trades in a row, you would only lose 10% of your capital, giving you plenty of opportunities to recover without significant emotional stress . Advantages of the 1% Risk Rule 1. Protects Your Capital: By risking only a small portion of your account on each trade, you prevent significant losses that could deplete your account. 2. Encourages Discipline: Sticking to the 1% rule helps instill discipline, keeping traders from making impulsive trades that deviate from their trading plan. 3. Provides Flexibility: The rule works for all market conditions and strategies, whether you are trading stocks, forex, or other assets. As long as you adhere to the 1% threshold, you can trade confidently without fear of losing too much on any single trade . The Risk-Reward Ratio An essential component of the 1% rule is pairing it with a favorable risk-reward ratio. Traders typically aim for a minimum reward of 2 to 3 times the risk. For example, if you’re risking $100 on a trade, you should aim for at least a $200 to $300 profit. This ensures that even with a 50% win rate, your profitable trades will outweigh your losses . Conclusion The 1% risk management strategy is a powerful tool for minimizing risk and protecting your trading capital. By incorporating proper position sizing, stop-loss orders, and a disciplined approach, you can navigate the market confidently while safeguarding your account from large drawdowns. Whether you’re a day trader or a swing trader, applying this strategy will help you build consistent success over time. By maintaining a focus on risk management, traders can shift their mindset from seeking high returns to preserving capital, which is the key to long-term success in the markets.
CRYPTO:BTCUSDEducation
by HexaTrades
The Formula That Helped Me Get Into in the Top 2% of TradersI spent years testing different strategies, obsessing over charts, and trying to find the perfect entry point. It took me a while to realize that it wasn’t just about picking the right trades—it was about knowing how much to risk on each trade. This is where the Kelly Criterion came into play and changed my entire approach. You’ve probably heard the saying, “Don’t put all your eggs in one basket.” Well, Kelly Criterion takes that idea and puts some hard math behind it to tell you exactly how much you should risk to maximize your long-term growth. It’s not a guessing game anymore—it’s math, and math doesn’t lie. What is Kelly Criterion? The Kelly Criterion is a formula that helps you figure out the optimal size of your trades based on your past win rate and the average size of your wins compared to your losses. It’s designed to find the perfect balance between being aggressive enough to grow your account but cautious enough to protect it from major drawdowns. F = W - (1 - W) / R F is the fraction of your account you should risk. W is your win rate (how often you win). R is your risk/reward ratio (the average win relative to the average loss). Let’s break it down. How It Works Let’s say you have a strategy that wins 60% of the time (W = 0.6), and your average win is 2x the size of your average loss (R = 2). Plugging those numbers into the formula, you’d get: F = 0.6 - (1 - 0.6) / 2 F = 0.6 - 0.4 / 2 F = 0.6 - 0.2 = 0.4 So, according to Kelly, you should risk 40% of your account on each trade. Now, 40% might seem like a lot, but this is just the theoretical maximum for optimal growth. The thing about using the full Kelly Criterion is that it’s aggressive. A 40% recommended risk allocation, for example, can be intense and lead to significant drawdowns, which is why many traders use half-Kelly, quarter-Kelly or other adjustments to manage risk. It’s a way to tone down the aggressiveness while still using the principle behind the formula. Personally, I don’t just take Kelly at face value—I factor in both the sample size (which affects the confidence level) and my max allowed drawdown when deciding how much risk to take per trade. If the law of large numbers tells us we need a good sample size to align results with expectations, then I want to make sure my risk management accounts for that. Let’s say, for instance, my confidence level is 95% (which is 0.95 in probability terms), and I don’t want to allow my account to draw down more than 10%. We can modify the Kelly Criterion like this: 𝑓 = ( ( 𝑊 − 𝐿 ) / 𝐵 )× confidence level × max allowed drawdown Where: 𝑊 = W is your win probability, 𝐿 = L is your loss probability, and 𝐵 = B is your risk-reward ratio. Let’s run this with actual numbers: Suppose your win probability is 60% (0.6), loss probability is 40% (0.4), and your risk-reward ratio is still 2:1. Using the same approach where the confidence level is 95% and the max allowed drawdown is 10%, the calculation would look like this: This gives us a risk percentage of 0.95% for each trade. So, according to this adjusted Kelly Criterion, based on a 60% win rate and your parameters, you should be risking just under 1% per trade. This shows how adding the confidence level and max drawdown into the mix helps control your risk in a more conservative and tailored way, making the formula much more usable for practical trading instead of over-leveraging. Why It’s Powerful Kelly Criterion gives you a clear, mathematically backed way to avoid overbetting on any single trade, which is a common mistake traders make—especially when they’re chasing losses or getting overconfident after a win streak. When I started applying this formula, I realized I had been risking too much on bad setups and too little on the good ones. I wasn’t optimizing my growth. Once I dialed in my risk based on the Kelly Criterion, I started seeing consistent growth that got me in the top 2% of traders on TradingView leap competition. Kelly in Action The first time I truly saw Kelly in action was during a winning streak. Before I understood this formula, I’d probably have gotten greedy and over-leveraged, risking blowing up my account. But with Kelly, I knew exactly how much to risk each time, so I could confidently scale up while still protecting my downside. Likewise, during losing streaks, Kelly kept me grounded. Instead of trying to "make it back" quickly by betting more, the formula told me to stay consistent and let the odds play out over time. This discipline was key in staying profitable and avoiding big emotional trades. Practical Use for Traders You don’t have to be a math genius to use the Kelly Criterion. It’s about taking control of your risk in a structured way, rather than letting emotions guide your decisions. Whether you’re new to trading or have been in the game for years, this formula can be a game-changer if applied correctly. Final Thoughts At the end of the day, trading isn’t just about making the right calls—it’s about managing your risks wisely. The Kelly Criterion gives you a clear path to do just that. By understanding how much to risk based on your win rate and risk/reward ratio, you’re not just gambling—you’re playing a game with a serious edge. So, whether you’re in a winning streak or facing some tough losses, keep your cool. Let the Kelly formula take care of your risk calculation. If you haven’t started using the Kelly Criterion yet, now’s the time to dive in. Calculate your win rate, figure out your risk/reward ratio, and start applying it. You’ll protect your account while setting yourself up for long-term profitability. Trust me, this is the kind of math that can change the game for you. Bonus: Custom Kelly Criterion Function in Pine Script If you’re ready to take your trading to the next level, here’s a little bonus for you! I’ve put together a custom Pine Script function that calculates the optimal risk percentage based on the Kelly Criterion. You can easily enter the variables to fit your trading strategy. // @description Calculates the optimal risk percentage using the Kelly Criterion. // @function kellyCriterion: Computes the risk per trade based on win rate, loss rate, average win/loss, confidence level, and maximum drawdown. // @param winRate (float) The probability of winning trades (0-1). // @param lossRate (float) The probability of losing trades (0-1). // @param avgWin (float) The average win size in risk units. // @param avgLoss (float) The average loss size in risk units. // @param confidenceLevel (float) Desired confidence level (0-1). // @param maxDrawdown (float) Maximum allowed drawdown (0-1). // @returns (float) The calculated risk percentage for each trade. kellyCriterion(winRate, lossRate, avgWin, avgLoss, confidenceLevel, maxDrawdown) => // Calculate Kelly Fraction: Theoretical fraction of the bankroll to risk kellyFraction = (winRate - lossRate) / (avgWin / avgLoss) // Adjust the risk based on confidence level and maximum drawdown adjustedRisk = (kellyFraction * confidenceLevel * maxDrawdown) // Return the adjusted risk percentage adjustedRisk Use this function to implement the Kelly Criterion directly into your trading setup. Adjust the inputs to see how your risk percentage changes based on your trading performance!
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by Fractalyst
11
USOIL Price Analysis: Double Bottom Breakout Targets $78.37🛢️ USOIL Price Analysis: Double Bottom Breakout Targets $78.37 and $83.67 USOIL (WTI Crude Oil) shows a bullish reversal pattern on the D1 timeframe , with a double bottom breakout signaling potential upward movement. Traders are eyeing key targets, with the first at $78.37 and the second at $83.67 . Here's a breakdown of the setup: 🔍 What is a Double Bottom Pattern? A double bottom is a bullish reversal pattern that forms after a downtrend. In this pattern, the price hits a support level twice and bounces back. This suggests that sellers have been exhausted, and buyers are stepping in to increase prices. The breakout occurs when the price closes above the peak between the two lows, confirming the pattern. 🚀 Key Price Targets for USOIL With the double bottom confirmed, here are the following potential price targets: 1. First Target – $78.37: After the breakout, the immediate upside target is $78.37 . This level is based on a measured move from the bottom of the pattern to the breakout point, giving traders their first profit-taking zone. 2. Second Target – $83.67: Should the bullish momentum continue, the next target to watch is $83.67 , where further resistance is expected. A move toward this level would signify a more extended upward trend in USOIL. ⛔ Stop Loss – $66.23 To manage risk, traders should consider placing a stop loss at $66.23 . This level is below the pattern's low, where a breakdown would invalidate the bullish outlook and potentially trigger further downside. 📊 Factors Influencing USOIL Several factors could affect the success of the breakout: Global Supply and Demand: Changes in OPEC policies, US shale production, and geopolitical tensions can significantly impact oil prices. Economic Growth: A robust global economy often increases oil demand, increasing prices. USD Strength: Since oil is traded in US dollars, a stronger dollar can put downward pressure on oil prices, while a weaker dollar may support further gains. 🛠 Trading Strategy For traders looking to capitalize on this breakout, consider the following: Entry Point: After the breakout, buying near the current price with targets of $78.37 and $83.67 could provide a favorable risk/reward ratio. Risk Management: Place your stop loss at $66.23 to protect against unexpected market reversals. 💡 Conclusion The double bottom breakout on the D1 timeframe suggests that USOIL is poised for a potential rally towards $78.37 and $83.67 , with a protective stop at $66.23 . To navigate this opportunity effectively, traders should stay vigilant of key market factors and global developments. 🔔 Stay tuned for more updates on USOIL and other fundamental market movements.
FX:USOILLong
by amzadlak