Get started

Riskoff

AAPL: Puts might pay off...I'm posting this one as an update to my broad stock positions outlook. For now I've moved to cash in all positions, and bought some energy, gold/mining/oil and added to my #Bitcoin holdings with proceeds. I also have some bearish bets in #AAPL, might be a good idea to reduce risk. My bullish posts for stocks might end up resulting in a failed signal, or maybe they endure a large drop before going back up over time. Be safe out there! Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:AAPLShort
by IvanLabrie
Weekly Fundamental Update (Mon Jan 27, 2020)Weekly Fundamental Update This last week ended with a noteworthy sell off seen towards the end of the week and it was a broad sell-off not specific, which is more accurate of risk-based movement a cross the financial markets rather than a specific impact from the target region (Asia) or asset class. Consideration of risk these days is important. The backing of value in its classical form has given way to an extreme amount of complacency; fueled by the bulls (buy-high, sell-higher). Being flexible to trade the markets bias and not the news is critical towards spotting opportunities in not only multiple timeframes but also across different asset classes. Your risk- tolerance should be in the front of your mind going into this next week. The most noteworthy topic last week was growth. Even though the GDP proxies that many people point to PMI’s have their flaws, they remain the leading key forward-looking indicator without any better solution. Generally speaking, they reflect the same figures as what the government published. In particular, this week’s Eurozone government-based GDP readings will be updated. This will be interesting considering the GDP from South Korea (worst since 2008) and China (worst in 29 years). Looking at the 10’s minus the 3-mo’s U.S. bonds you would assume that growth as far as a catalyst ended up with a weak footed bias. However, when you look at the PMI’s themselves, here’s how they stood. - JPY: +0.9 to 49.3 - NZD: -0.1% - EUR: +1.2 - Australia’s figures softened however the Japanese numbers improved. The number is still below 50 (indicative of a retraction), however its improvement was above 50 (an expansion). - Germany: A bigger than expected uptick, however still not above 50 - U.K.: A significant boost, manufacturing and services improving and shared burden 47.t to 49.8 - U.S.: Manufacturing ticked lower from52.4 to 51.7 (still above 50) Overall this data would be an improvement in growth. This didn’t reflect in the yield spread last week and risk-aversion was obvious. Now, what’s motivating this? If it’s something that we can identify than it’s something that most traders who consider fundamentals are all watching. I would define the complacency in the channel in the DOW, NASDAQ, or the SPX. These are the best performing asset classes in general, and especially in the last 12 months (U.S. equities vs rest of world equities (VEU)). The pullback yesterday almost hit the -1% mark, but the SPX was down 0.9%. This was a decline that was the biggest since October, but it’s also been 72 trading days without a 1% drop or advance. This is something that is considerable and can be directly reflected in the subdued volatility of the VIX. The next 1% move I think will be down, not up considering the current over extension of the longer-term bull run for the U.S. equity market. The top event risk this week depends on how we are surprised with scheduled events this week. The risk perspective will be a principle driver and I will be watching tomorrow during the N.Y. session to see how the current levels (which are at channel floors established since October 19) Event risk: The official GDP figures this week: Mexico and the U.S. on Thurs and the Eurozone on Friday. This will affect the EUR/USD and other U.S. dollar pairs. Given how quiet things have been on the Euro, I think it will reflect volatility seen in other cross pairs. Earnings: Tech, manufactures, goods etc. C onsumer confidence sentiment: worth highlighting, because of the impact is has the U.S. elections (second tax cut, and trade war resolutions) Monetary Policy: The Fed decision is the top priority this week for event risk. Higher levels of inflation is expected from Australia. There is also rumors based on the REPO/ swap market that the BOE will cut interest rates. The fed will release its forecast for 2020 and their “review” of their effectiveness of monetary policy (targeting 2% inflation vs QE as a standard tool vs. risk of high-leverage exposure to future crises) could raise questions of the ineffectiveness of monetary policy and its low rates and benchmark yields regarding solvency. This probability is low and it’s seen in the Fed Funds Futures contracts. You can’t write off the risk though, because if it comes to fruition it can overwhelm other fundamental themes. 03:11:43 (UTC) Mon Jan 27, 2020 ©2020
TVC:DXY
by TayFx
1
#Yen weekly chart update ! The futures chart suggests we are very close to be breaking out of a 4 year consolidation ( in this case barrier triangle ) in the price of Yen. This move should last aprox 2 years ( i am looking for wave equality of C vs A) , which looking at the macro global picture means that we should be getting ready for a period of strong risk averse sentiment , turbulent equity markets and overall defense style approaches. The catalyst for this remains to be seen, but the charts are telling you this before it happens. Buckle up !!
CME_MINI:J71!Long
by cryptcowboy
1
EXCELLENT Risk to Reward TLT TradeAs described within the chart, there is an excellent opportunity here with going long TLT (20 year bond etf)... Oil took a small turn down today (still expecting sub $50) and could be seen as an indicator of further downwards price action for risk on assets... Equities continue to grind higher with little news propelling it forward... Gold is also looking towards completing a 5th wave higher with TLT... Stop loss is indicated in red and target is indicated in green... Thanks for checking out my idea! Please leave a LIKE and FOLLOW! I encourage comments and constructive criticisms!
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by Chadison-Brosevelt
USDJPY Potential CTL RetestI’ll be watching UJ along with US Equities & Gold to gauge whether or not this setup is truly risk off. Ultimately, it is likely to bounce before a larger countertrend move to the downside. If no immediate rejection from the zone identified takes place, shorts could get rekt. Whether up or down, a setup should materialize. Short term bullish, medium term bearish is what I’m thinking. Side note: We have Cheeto Bandito in the Whitehouse with dusty hand puppet Jerome Powell going absolute full send hyperinflation (QE )straight into equity futures.
Long
by bryanrg
1
XAGUSD: Weekly downtrend might fail...I think the daily based decently here, and judging by Friday's bar, a trend might be about to gain traction. Silver is likely a good buy from here onwards, should be a good addition to your portfolio, to hedge equities risk, and/or to profit in a speculative FX/Futures account. There will be many trend trading opportunities in precious metals going forward, most likely showing a bigger edge on the long side when viable. IF prices don't go any lower, the weekly trend will become a fail by Dec 23rd, in which case, we could expect a rally back over recent highs at the very least. The situation in Hong Kong might turn investors toward risk off assets here, which might end up benefitting Bitcoin as well. $USDCNH seems to have recovered, and might move higher, so, $XAUCNY will likely trend up as well. I worry that the recent trade deal related optimism might end badly, at least in the short to intermediate term...For this reason I have sold my risk on positions and bought Gold on Friday, and will be looking to buy Silver at the open as well. Best of luck! Ivan Labrie.
FX:XAGUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
ORBEX: Trump Dents Markets Days Before OPEC+In today’s market insights I talk about the massive Trump sell-off seen in the markets following his comments that a phase 1 trade deal could be now dragged later than the 2020 election. Gold and Oil were affected by the pessimistic rhetoric as participants received the delay announcement! The yellow metal appreciated while Crude oil jaw-dropped days ahead of the critical OPEC+ meeting in Vienna. Watch me analyse the two #Commodities and what I expect in the short and medium-term using #ElliottWaves! Timestamps XAUUSD 1H 01:40 WTI 1H 04:15 Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice.
FX_IDC:USDWTI
by Orbex
EURJPY Intraday: short possible with 119 as first targetHello, Does the house of cards begin to fall apart? The answer will probably get closer to the end of the day (PPT FED Plunge Protection Team in action ??? LOL) US China tensions increase is not properly priced in ? Trump mentioned that a deal could even take place in the post elections in 2020 Trump also tageting EU ( France ? ) again .... but mixing signals here ) technically: broken line + supply from higher TF Possible short in-play (scaling or separately) around 120.50 / 60 and / or 120.80 / 95 stop above 121.10 First target 119.10 / 00 Good luck
Short
by ForexClub_pl
1
EURJPY Likely to Decline towards 119.00 After Support Break!Hello Viewers, this is an instant trade signal! Therefore, please have a look at the main chart for the following vital trade details: • ENTRY POINT • STOP LOSS • TAKE PROFIT • RISK TO REWARD The setup may look simple but I can assure you it is NOT. There are various in depth technical and fundamental analysis incorporated behind the execution. I would very much love to explain these two aspects here but doing that would consume ample amount of time which could affect the appropriate entry point behind this trade! So, to keep it simple the main chart just displays the simplified technical view of this trade. My way of performing technical analysis basically starts by breaking down the monthly Timeframe down until the One Hour charts. The following are the aspects I focus most on when performing technical analysis: • Draw Support & Resistance through key common psychological levels on M & W Charts. This helps me to see where the price might stall or breakout. • Draw Trendlines to determine the dynamic support and resistance levels present on the charts. This helps me to determine where the price might stall and most importantly help determine the path of least resistance behind the active trade. • I also tend to use EMA 50 on all the Timeframes. This EMA 50 is proficiently proven to act as dynamic support and resistance and is vital behind all my analysis. • Lastly, I tend to use classic pivot levels to determine my entry, stop loss and take profit levels. The combination of this and all of the above helps me determine the precise and likely trade targets behind the setup. Another aspect of my way of analysis is reading a lot of news to determine the fundamental aspects affecting any trade. After the technical analysis is performed, I tend to match if the fundamental aspect really supports my technical analysis. Therefore, as you could see, putting all my thoughts here would surely take up a lot of time which could make the price drift away from the entry price thus affecting the Risk to reward ratio. I understand it is vital for many of you to know the details behind this trade setup, and so if you are interested you could send me message and I will try to share most of what I can! The Above words are just template I use in all my trades. Shall there be any updates I will provide them here. Thank you
Short
by FX618Analysis
1
EURJPY (Cross) Likely To Decline Towards 120.200 level!Hello Viewers, this is an instant trade signal! Therefore, please have a look at the main chart for the following vital trade details: • ENTRY POINT • STOP LOSS • TAKE PROFIT • RISK TO REWARD The setup may look simple but I can assure you it is NOT. There are various in depth technical and fundamental analysis incorporated behind the execution. I would very much love to explain these two aspects here but doing that would consume ample amount of time which could affect the appropriate entry point behind this trade! So, to keep it simple the main chart just displays the simplified technical view of this trade. My way of performing technical analysis basically starts by breaking down the monthly Timeframe down until the One Hour charts. The following are the aspects I focus most on when performing technical analysis: • Draw Support & Resistance through key common psychological levels on M & W Charts. This helps me to see where the price might stall or breakout. • Draw Trendlines to determine the dynamic support and resistance levels present on the charts. This helps me to determine where the price might stall and most importantly help determine the path of least resistance behind the active trade. • I also tend to use EMA 50 on all the Timeframes. This EMA 50 is proficiently proven to act as dynamic support and resistance and is vital behind all my analysis. • Lastly, I tend to use classic pivot levels to determine my entry, stop loss and take profit levels. The combination of this and all of the above helps me determine the precise and likely trade targets behind the setup. Another aspect of my way of analysis is reading a lot of news to determine the fundamental aspects affecting any trade. After the technical analysis is performed, I tend to match if the fundamental aspect really supports my technical analysis. Therefore, as you could see, putting all my thoughts here would surely take up a lot of time which could make the price drift away from the entry price thus affecting the Risk to reward ratio. I understand it is vital for many of you to know the details behind this trade setup, and so if you are interested you could send me message and I will try to share most of what I can! The Above words are just template I use in all my trades. Shall there be any updates I will provide them here. Thank you
Short
by FX618Analysis
USDCHF Likely To Test 0.97500 Level After Trendline Violation!Hello Viewers, this is an instant trade signal! Therefore, please have a look at the main chart for the following vital trade details: • ENTRY POINT • STOP LOSS • TAKE PROFIT • RISK TO REWARD The setup may look simple but I can assure you it is NOT. There are various in depth technical and fundamental analysis incorporated behind the execution. I would very much love to explain these two aspects here but doing that would consume ample amount of time which could affect the appropriate entry point behind this trade! So, to keep it simple the main chart just displays the simplified technical view of this trade. My way of performing technical analysis basically starts by breaking down the monthly Timeframe down until the One Hour charts. The following are the aspects I focus most on when performing technical analysis: • Draw Support & Resistance through key common psychological levels on M & W Charts. This helps me to see where the price might stall or breakout. • Draw Trendlines to determine the dynamic support and resistance levels present on the charts. This helps me to determine where the price might stall and most importantly help determine the path of least resistance behind the active trade. • I also tend to use EMA 50 on all the Timeframes. This EMA 50 is proficiently proven to act as dynamic support and resistance and is vital behind all my analysis. • Lastly, I tend to use classic pivot levels to determine my entry, stop loss and take profit levels. The combination of this and all of the above helps me determine the precise and likely trade targets behind the setup. Another aspect of my way of analysis is reading a lot of news to determine the fundamental aspects affecting any trade. After the technical analysis is performed, I tend to match if the fundamental aspect really supports my technical analysis. Therefore, as you could see, putting all my thoughts here would surely take up a lot of time which could make the price drift away from the entry price thus affecting the Risk to reward ratio. I understand it is vital for many of you to know the details behind this trade setup, and so if you are interested you could send me message and I will try to share most of what I can! The Above words are just template I use in all my trades. Shall there be any updates I will provide them here. Thank you
Short
by FX618Analysis
RISK OFF BACK ON?...CADJPY UPDATELast week on tradingview we discussed a potential short opportunity on CADJPY as technically price found resistance at the head and shoulders pattern neckline that formed in July. This weekend we saw the news of Saudi Arabia's oil refineries being attacked which could move the market into a risk-off sentiment with safe havens such as JPY benefitting from that. We will look for this market to continue lower into the daily highs of 80.75.
Short
by BlueberryMarkets
1
Navigating The Market : Simplified #EURJPY Sept 2nd, 2019The EURJPY had been in a bearish trend. The Yen had been bid due to safe-haven flows thanks to Trump and China trade war. I also believe what is happening in Hong Kong does play it's part as well. Retail sentiment generally bearish on the Yen. The first thing happened after the Sydney open was price managed to break below and closed under last Friday's low (coincided with last week's low as well), followed by a bullish version of a dark cloud cover candlestick pattern (I genuinely forgot what its actually called!). There are plenty of sell stops recorded around the prices between 115.850 to 116.350. I looked at the order books, great % amount of opened buy positions there at 116.650 (the close price of that bullish candle), which I suspect 116.350 price is the averaged stop-loss price (Stoploss is a sell stop for a buy position, vice versa) Sell orders above market price right now, which logically would be the place for everyone to put their sell stops as well as bearish continuation trade. That's too obvious for me and I bet the institutionals would take advantage of that and take the other side of the trade. Look, it could happen (price reverses at 117.00-117.150, but trading is a numbers game, my personal record of statistics suggest it has higher probability that the price would just break that sell stops above market price) My game plan is to scalp a long trade if price taps into the sell stop around 116.350 to 115.580. If price continues to go up (without going down further at 116-115.xx) and respects the sell stop at 117.150-117.00, I will re-adjust my plan as that would be the classic continuation pattern for the underlying bearish trend. I do however anticipating the sell stops at 117.xx to be consumed and the price goes higher towards previous Friday's high. I will look to short if/when that happens. A further move higher right now ((without going down further at 116-115.xx) would be too bad because I want to Long EURJPY short term (because, as I've mentioned above, I am bullish Yen - in other words, bearish EURJPY) but i'm more comfortable if it taps into the liquidity pool.
by sufiansaid
Navigating the Market : Simplified #USD #CHFFriday low was broken coincided with an equal low few days before (check your own charts), if i was on my trading desk when that happen (price tapping in the green zone I marked) and my personal trading system triggers a Long signal, i would've been in.. well, it fits my criteria to enter a trade.(again, you would argue hindsight analysis.. but AGAIN, you mark these kind of levels in any pair, you would see it happen very often.. not always.. but very often.. and that is enough for me to be able to simply navigate the market without guessing work (which is bad in trading) That little retracement during NY session started with bearish engulfing candle. Reversal traders would have latched onto that with a short trade believing its time to enter a trade into the continuation bearish move started on the previous Friday. Personally I would ignore that bearish engulfing candle because I couldn't see any stacks of retail buy orders (and by right, we would be already in a Long trade anyway) What is interesting however, that little retracement was tested again the next day and formed the Tuesday Low (which for me is a significant price information). If theres equal lows on these day's low, then I qualify it as a valid potential liquidity pool. Everthing else after that is self explanatory (and i'm generally a lazy person.. writing this takes a lot of effort for me) /** This is not an entry & exit based trading strategy
by sufiansaid