Potential cup and handle pattern? GBP/USD 1-Hour ChartPotential cup and handle pattern on the 1-hour chart (For GBP/USD). Also a likely breakthrough on the 1.250-1.252 resistance level of risk-on optimism continues globally and USD weakness continues.
Note: My analysis is NOT professional investment advice, so please take responsibility for your own actions.
Riskon
EURJPY Long after break, close and retest and a move upWe've had a bounce at the 119.50 level and a convincing move to the upside on the daily chart which coincides with the highs from late March before the COVID move south. Open longs once 121 level broken (in line with the green elipse) for profits north of 200 pips up to previous highs of 123.90. Be wary of negative news from EU around upsurges in COVID-19 cases but opening up of lockdown restrictions and upcoming summer travel will stimulate growth in EU and potential risk-on market activity.
HEXOtook a long on HEXO TP is around $3.60 after hitting $2 resistance I will probably sell and renter.
EUR/NZD - Long - Bearish Reversal I always like too think the charts don't lie and with the ECB meetings tomorrow all signs point upwards.
Although, despite short term success in this diverging channel for NZD that is largely due to the risk on tone across the markets.
The top tier 1.82000 resistance is a potential TP with both 100 & 200 day MA looking to diverge for potential change of direction to either side the ECB news could prove a 100+ pip winner by US session.
For you oscillator fans the RSI indicates its oversold but further risk on tone could see us move into range from the upside breakout earlier this year. The bearish reversal touching the bottom of the channel points to a test upside.
NZDJPY Potentially heading to pre-covid19 levelsTechnically
- On a strong resistance --> Hopeful to see slight retest before break up to levels before Covid-19
Fundamentals
- Risk on --> Economies around the world are opening up, this will potentially result to selloff in safe havens assets like Japanese Yen and Gold, this will likely result in medium term selloff of JPY against other countries currencies NZD in particular.
We are having a medium term bullish bias in the pair
OIL PRICE BULLISH RALLY MUCH EXPECTED TARGET NEAR $40Technically
- The price has retested the channel support which implies that there is a possibility for pull back.
- Also the momentum is still strong as can be noticed from MACD 4C
- The 30 period MA is sloping upward
Fundamentally
- The economies are opening up from Covid19 pandemic which will likely boost demand and Oil price
- On the supply side, the crude inventories are also declining on weekly basis which is also good for oil price.
I have initiated a long position at current price with first target around $39.50
GBP/JPY - Risk On to Start June 2020Don't be fouled by optimistic start to June 2020 be careful of any extension of current rally to the upside with obstacles approaching at 137.000
1. 200 Day - Daily MA (Blue) approaching at present testing the 100 day - Daily MA (Orange).
2. Fib Level at 0.618 will not stop Rally but potential reversal on fundamental pressure from investor attitude and BREXIT spotlight
The typical weak performer GBP in the summer months has recouped from low levels of 130.000. However, reopening economies and progressive BREXIT talk will spur the rally above 137.000
Trade idea:
137.000 Entry SL 137.300 dependant on progress of the rally.
Failure to beat 100 Day MA could see a short at 136.000 with SL at 136.3000
USDCAD Bear In ActionBear are ruling the market on this major pair and knowing the fact how well aussie and kiwi buddy of loonie in AUDUSD | NZDUSD performing lately against buck I reckon this two buddies are together counter striking buck viciously. No positive sign for DXY yet and seems total stagnate talking about the price action for that index and the fact how pound and euro kicking butt of buck too I assume at this point we should not consider a strong king ( buck ).
InFiNiTy MoNeY to the rescueSupport retested, zone under the green green block proven to be a strong buy zone.
Bitcoin pumped on news that the U.S. Fed will be buying anything: www.cnbc.com
U.S. equities pumped in pre-market too, but retraced rather quickly. It's a bullish sign that bitcoin did not slink back under support following the news pump.
Things I am wary of:
- Bitmain 03/27 $5000 euro-style bitcoin puts
- March 31st Mt. Gox repayment plan deadline involving 140000 bitcoin
- Daily close under support
- COVID-19 affecting market sentiment
- Oil price war causing unpredictable fluctuations in US dollar's value (but can it get any much lower?)
ridethepig | Switched Sides On Gold!A masterclass performance from buyers, well done all those holding longs from 1250 and 1350... I know many here who have been riding the pig, that have kept working longs because the market said it worked and it paid! This has been one of the easiest rides in Gold in all my years of trading, the easy part of the rally is now finished.
We are coming to the end of "Santanomics":
Profit taking will begin and with that it was time to begin unwinding all remaining longs and time to cover with shorts. The blind retail coming in and buying this expecting it to go up forever when smart money have been miles ahead, we are just taking profits and switching sides...my regular readers will know this is the first sell idea i've posted in Gold in years...
In any case, a flawless example of a swing to the topside throughout 2019. All targets are cleared and hit with the only exception being 1700 although this looks far away now considering profit taking has already begun.
On the technical side, 1700 is acting as steel resistance above and should cap the highs unless we get panic via coronavirus (not expected till later in the year). The targets to the downside come into fruition at 1600, 1592 and to a lot lesser of an extent 1512 although is currently out of scope. Fading the exhaustion here seems tactical. Thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, charts and etc. And as usual the comments are open for all.
DXY: Market OverviewThe leading indicator has already pointed out exhausted bullish. Technically talking we all can see dxy has extended a lot high due to some past week greenback power over most of its counterparts. Last week it was an almost risk-off market situation where safe haven did most well and the case dollar been dragging most of its counterpart creating some bullish momentum on dxy. The situation doesn't seem well for dxy bulls at this point when we saw a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern which indicating bearish momentum gradually increasing at the market. To consider properly we know how pound, euro, Aussie (mainly) and kiwi trying to lead over greenback at the moment and overall market risk sentiment changed when NY trader entered the market. I assume if the market player avoids risk aversion and gets nasty over chasing risky assets then counterparts of greenback may perform well especially those comdolls and which will eventually help dxy bears to drag the price further lower. Technically we can see stoch did hang around a couple of times in its overbought zone but finally it leaves the 80 zone!
Go long crude oil potentially if this monthly trend line holdswell everyday we are counting the number of deaths in Wuhan, China.
So long this thing does not blow up.
in the long run, we still need crude oil to run our industries and cars and so on.
if this monthly trendline holds, could start to go long
Sell VIX around 22if the market sell off continue, VIX could continue to spike up but up to a certain point.
markets ought to recover and volatility to taper off once the virus episode blows over.
rather than go long the market which could still be choppy, a way to go long is to short VIX.
based on regression analysis, VIX is likely not go beyond 22