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Riskreward

Risk VS RewardWhen you first get into stocks the first lesson I would tell you to learn about is Risk vs Reward (R/R). I still don't completely grasp the finer points except that I keep making the same mistake and that is not measuring the Risk before I buy short dated options on SPX. Granted when you hit a short dated Out of the Money (OTM) options (referred to sometimes as Lottos) the rewards are amazing, but the risk you take holding them is much higher. You have a better chance going to a casino and betting it all on Black or White. Then there are Short Leveraged ETFs like SPXU. These are great equities/derivative to use Margin with on in a Carry Trade. My broker labels it as a Married Put and what it essentially lets you do is apply the premium of the In the Money (ITM) PUT you buy as your risk of the underlying going down (which is natural for short leveraged etfs) so they will lend you shares. You can then safely leverage up as much PUT premium as you can afford to risk. In the case of a market correction like what happened in Mar20, your reward would pay x 15k to 20k times your maximum risk. To put that in perspective, using 31k in put premium for the next 4 months (max risk 11k at SPXU $15) you would borrow 130k from your broker (10k shares of SPXU). The payout at SPXU $210 (march 2020 correction) would pay you out ~2 million dollars. Now is about the only time the margin interest will be low enough. When the Fed finally raises interest rates, the cost of borrowing 130k for 4 months would be significantly more. You can also write weekly/monthly Calls on some of your SPXU shares to cover the margin/premium cost and maybe even generate income. Just look at the volume average (white dots) increasing as we get closer to the inevitable rate hike the fed must do. Definitely Not Financial Advice. I'm a Meat Popsicle. As always, Hope for the Best. Plan for the Worst.
AMEX:SPXU
by SPYvsGME
3
Beating the rake - Know your trading feesLet’s talk about trading fees. This is an area that most people who trade don’t put enough thought into, but it can make a huge difference to your bottom line. This is especially the case when dealing with percentage based commissions in combination with leverage. Many people, especially those who mainly trade crypto, will be using services that charge percentage based commissions, with fees that can be as high as 0.5% ! But even if you’re trading at one of the more trader-friendly exchanges you’re likely to be paying in the region of 0.1% taker fees for spot trading and 0.04 - 0.06 % taker fees on futures. That sounds pretty cheap, right? 0.06% fee on a trade sounds almost negligible, which is why most casual traders don’t pay too much attention to it. Firstly though, you need to remember that this is the fee for both buying and selling, so for a round trip (buy and sell, assuming taker fee of 0.06% for each) you’re paying 0.12% Suddenly that starts to look a bit more significant, especially for short term intraday traders and scalpers. Let’s take a quick example. Let’s say you’re an intraday trader paying 0.06% taker fees on futures, and your typical Risk/Reward is aiming for a 1% gain and a 0.5% loss for an R of 2. The breakeven rate with an R of 2 is a 33.33% win rate, which is why many traders aim to trade this way. If they can achieve a win rate in the region of 50% they can be highly successful. But then we take your trading fees into account. That 1% average win becomes 0.88 % after your 0.12% round trip of taker fees. And your 0.5% average loss becomes 0.62 % after your round trip to fee-town. So now with an average win of 0.88% and average loss of 0.62% your R is down to 1.42! That means your breakeven win rate has changed from 33.33% to 41.33%! What if you’re aiming to catch even smaller percentage moves? If you were aiming for 0.5% average wins and 0.25% average losses for Risk/Reward of 2, but without considering fees, you might be in for a nasty surprise. Your average win would now be 0.38% and your average loss would be 0.37% after accounting for 0.12% round trip fees on all trades. The 2 R you were aiming for to require a 33.33% win rate actually becomes 1.02 R, requiring a 49.33% win rate to break even! And as a last example, let’s say you take a different approach. Perhaps you’re the type of trader aiming to take equal sized wins and losses but aiming for a 60 - 70% win rate to make your money. At 1% average win and loss (1 R), your wins become 0.88% and your losses become 1.12% after fees. Instead of a 50% break even rate you now require a 56% win rate just to break even! And if you aim for 0.5% average win and loss (1 R) your average wins become 0.38% and your losses become 0.62% after fees, requiring a 62% win rate to break even! Can you overcome those odds? The key takeaway here is that factoring trading fees into your trading plan is absolutely vital to understanding your risk/reward. The smaller the trading fees are as a percentage of your average trade, the less impactful the fees will be on your bottom line. To keep your trading fees small as a percentage of your average wins and losses, the simplest way is obviously to trade for larger average wins and losses, taking a swing trading approach with smaller position sizing. Alternatively, most exchanges/brokers will offer cheaper trading fees for “makers” using limit orders, as opposed to “takers” using market prices. This discount for maker fees will usually slash your fees by 50% - 80%. Many will also offer additional discounts for using a specific token for paying fees (e.g. BNB or KCS) or various discounts for VIP levels/tiers. Do not underestimate the value of these discounts, they can have a very substantial impact on your bottom line, especially if you are a short term intraday trader or scalper. Just a 50% saving on fees could be enough to turn a short term trader from a breakeven trader to a winning one.
BINANCE:BTCUSD.PEducation
by HayeTrading
1
Good Time to Long GBP/USDSharing my Premium Trade Plan here; All Trades can fail therefore a strict Stop Loss is always intact. My Trade Plan is to Long GBP/USD on Daily Time frame thereby I will not be worrying about small volatility that exists. Risk to Return Ratio is 1:7.5 Note: Do your own analysis before taking the trade. Buy/Long: 1.31916 - 1.32145 SL: 1.31548 Target zone: 1.34743 - 1.34896 Reasoning: A strong pull back is due so I will be taking advantage of it. Indicators used: EMAs and RSI.
Long
by M_Shariq
6
AVAX! Swing Set up AVAX! Is getting a great support. WE SAW NICE DUMP ON ALL CRYPTOS. That is why is so important to place a stop loss and actually know what is your risk and your Reward not just money but % wise. Risk management and RATIO 2:1 is Essential. That is what we do we all do Risk and reward. If YOU NOT a hater and support others like this post! It does MAKES A DIFFERENCE This one Falls In our research on swing set ups with a good ratio of Risk and Reward. As always er put quality over quantity, don’t forget to follow us for SWING trades research on risk and Reward Ratio. Subscribe and don’t miss OUT the next research. Swing trading is great because you can create a lot wealth in % by risking less $$. Compound Gains. Thank you for the Love, I really appreciate those likes, makes a difference and pushes me to keep on posting more of these!
BITFINEX:AVAXUSDLong
by JhonMontana
Extremely Clean Aud/Jpy Re-cap Please see our above trade on Aud/Jpy posted on 21st November 2021 link below. Lets break down why we took this trade and how you could have identified this the same. Starting from the Daily timeframe we identified a daily descending channel which was broken and retested on September 21st. We then started a bullish move towards the previous swing high made on the 10th May 2021. This area was clearly rejected on the daily time frame and then exhaustion followed. Moving down onto the 4hr chart. We identified the 4hr ascending trend line that was keeping the bullish move alive and one which we would then use to give ourselves confluence that the bullish move had ended and we could be looking for short positions. After our ascending trend was broken this gave us more confluence and we then moved on to identifying so key market structure and some exhaustion. This all took place straight out the textbook and we then used the EMA's and descending trend to capatilise on this move to the downside. To see more set ups like this in advance give the page a follow and if you agree with our ideas hit the thumbs up. If you have a different view point leave a comment below, after all everyday is a learning day. Have a wonderful weekend. The Fx Chartist
Short
by TheFxChartist_
AUDJPY SECOND CHANCE NOT TO BE MISSED Please see our analysis off Aud/Jpy above. This pair has been making some nice movements over the past few weeks and we are looking to further capitalize on this move as they are more clear opportunities to get in on this trade and second and third time. a) You can look for an initial bounce off our support zone back into the dynamic support. Upon seeing this dynamic support respecting for a 4th time and a clear rejection you can look to enter into this move. b) We can wait for a nice aggressive move through our support zone and dependent on how aggressive the move is there may be another opportunity to get in. If this move has enough momentum we might sail through this zone and not even look back at a retest and correction into the support turned resistance and you may feel it appropriate to get in if there is good enough momentum. However I always wait for a retest and rejection and if this is not seen it is an opportunity you can choose to sit out and watch it play out. Whats your thoughts on this pair and my break down? Let me know in the comments below, any and all feedback is always appreciated. The Fx Chartist
Short
by TheFxChartist_
2
MARA! Swing Is breaking resistance on consolidation. Great Risk And Reward. I am getting some Feb Calls! If YOU NOT a hater and support others like this post! It does MAKES A DIFFERENCE This one Falls In our research on swing set ups with a good ratio of Risk and Reward. As always er put quality over quantity, don’t forget to follow us for SWING trades research on risk and Reward Ratio. Subscribe and don’t miss OUT the next research. Swing trading is great because you can create a lot wealth in % by risking less $$. Compound Gains. Thank you for the Love, I really appreciate those likes, makes a difference and pushes me to keep on posting more of these!
NASDAQ:MARALong
by JhonMontana
How To Use Risk:Reward Like A ProWhatsup my friends In this video I will be covering my risk:reward model and how I can use it to generate an edge in the market. In this specific backtesting session, I used 0.5:2 risk:reward with TP at 4RR for every trade. I got pretty good results - but remember this is simulated and it's easier to perform better. However, don't take this type of training lightly - this is the best way to improve as a trader. The next step would be to actually start journaling your trades and analyzing everything at a deeper level. I hope you enjoyed this! Cheers Dil
Education
by justlivingmylife
🚀🚀🚀LITECOIN 🚀🚀🚀🚀 My Litecoin technical analysis I go over a bullish bat formation stop levels, take profit levels Entry levels risk to reward profile also go over trend continuation trades. entry, stops, and target on them too What a three-point move is. What an Impulse leg is lots of information in short time. watch it couple 20 times This is the rules I use Video is ok imo I hope to do better in the future me learning share if you found value Thanks GL on your trades Remember A good trade setup can be a losing trade
COINBASE:LTCUSDLong
by JoeyMullins
3
MARA! Swing Getting a great support. RISK AND REWARD is great as well. If YOU NOT a hater and support others like this post! It does MAKES A DIFFERENCE This one Falls In our research on swing set ups with a good ratio of Risk and Reward. As always we put quality over quantity, don’t forget to follow us for SWING trades research on risk and Reward Ratio. Subscribe and don’t miss OUT the next research. Swing trading is great because you can create a lot wealth in % by risking less $$. Compound Gains. Thank you for the Love, I really appreciate those likes, makes a difference and pushes me to keep on posting more of these!
NASDAQ:MARALong
by JhonMontana
AVAX! Avax is about to fly! So much demand from TIME AND WONDERLAND STAKing. Great risk and reward set up as well. If YOU NOT a hater and support others like this post! It does MAKES A DIFFERENCE This one Falls In our research on swing set ups with a good ratio of Risk and Reward. As always we put quality over quantity, don’t forget to follow us for SWING trades research on risk and Reward Ratio. Subscribe and don’t miss OUT the next research. Swing trading is great because you can create a lot wealth in % by risking less $$. Compound Gains. Thank you for the Love, I really appreciate those likes, makes a difference and pushes me to keep on posting more of these!
BITFINEX:AVAXUSDLong
by JhonMontana
2
I have no fear left Technicals ✓✓✓ (multiple divergences) Short ratio ✓✓ Upcoming changes in platform / CEO ✓✓ Retail psychology ✓✓ Institutions buying ✓✓ Lockdowns possibility after x-mas ✓ E-commerce growth - especially mobile ✓ If these are not enough for you in a $2.5b market cap with $1-1.2b in cash, around $2.5b in sales 0 debt and estimation from management to break even during the next Qs i don't know what is. *Selling shitty products and all the rest comments i read here and there are no-sense... if they were to sell shitty products with one month plus shipping time how the hell did they manage to do Billions in sales? ( you might say ads and high acquisition costs) still they have a beautiful buyers pool which if they play it right: 1. Quality control 2. Higher shipping rates 3. Local pick ups They can thrive!!! This bet needs a good vision and an even better stomach! if it plays as i see it $100-150b could be on the horizon. **There is also a chance they get acquired but risk/reward here (possibility of going bankrupt or even become a zombie company in the ERA OF E-COMMERCE) seems too ridiculous for me. *** I have a position in wish with average cost of $8.5, therefore as of know my estimates are wrong and for sure i was terrible in timing this but i hold and believe on the above. Worst case scenario i lose a bet but in the best case i expect my returns from here to be of minimum 2x. Do your own research and think for yourself
WLong
by Philoslother
4
SOL! Swing trade set upSOL is getting a great support on 50MA. Always keep it simple. Waiting for C.I formation and confirmation. With SOLANA going into NFT and giving Their holders some % for holding is great incentive! ATH I see you soon! If YOU NOT a hater and support others like this post! It does MAKES A DIFFERENCE This one Falls In our research on swing set ups with a good ratio of Risk and Reward. As always we put quality over quantity, don’t forget to follow us for SWING trades research on risk and Reward Ratio. Subscribe and don’t miss OUT the next research. Swing trading is great because you can create a lot wealth in % by risking less $$. Compound Gains. Thank you for the Love, I really appreciate those likes, makes a difference and pushes me to keep on posting more of these!
BINANCE:SOLUSDLong
by JhonMontana
1
MANA! Reached TPMana! Once again %%% some great %%$$$. Feel free to take some profits. I cashed out some out 4$. I moving it to SHIB. I just posted. Don’t miss out. Compound GAINS! If YOU NOT a hater and support others like this post! It does MAKES A DIFFERENCE This one Falls In our research on swing set ups with a good ratio of Risk and Reward. As always we put quality over quantity, don’t forget to follow us for SWING trades research on risk and Reward Ratio. Subscribe and don’t miss OUT the next research. Swing trading is great because you can create a lot wealth in % by risking less $$. Compound Gains. Thank you for the Love, I really appreciate those likes, makes a difference and pushes me to keep on posting more of these!
COINBASE:MANAUSDLong
by JhonMontana
1
SHIB! Swing Set upSHIB! As anticipated deeper pullback. It’s getting amazing RISK AND REWARD! We might see this bad boy fly. Have you checked MANA!? We called so many times it’s doing great! Over 80% profits! If YOU NOT a hater and support others like this post! It does MAKES A DIFFERENCE This one Falls In our research on swing set ups with a good ratio of Risk and Reward. As always we put quality over quantity, don’t forget to follow us for SWING trades research on risk and Reward Ratio. Subscribe and don’t miss OUT the next research. Swing trading is great because you can create a lot wealth in % by risking less $$. Compound Gains. Thank you for the Love, I really appreciate those likes, makes a difference and pushes me to keep on posting more of these!
SLong
by JhonMontana
1