Nat Gas - Classic patterns vs Elliott WaveWe can make the case for this being a rising Wedge Pattern or in terms of the Wave Principle, an Ending Diagonal fifth wave.
Looking at the Wedge pattern, there's nothing wrong here and we can short if price goes outside the pattern.
But there are two problems with this view according to the wave Principle :
1) Wave 4 did not enter wave 1 territory altough this can happen on rare occasions.
2) Proportions wise, wave 3 is bigger than wave 1 which is possible in case we have an Expanding Diagonal but because wave 4 is smaller than wave 2 here, I don't think that's the case.
This then leaves us with the Extended fifth wave possibility I talked about on the last update.
We can therefore expect something similar to this or possibly even much higher prices than 4.00 if it really starts to get extended.
Riskreward
Here's How I Doubled My Money on Silvergate Capital Corp ($SI)I sold half of my position on a double of $SI yesterday. I'm now in a risk-free position for life. I bet only a small size, but I think small is the way to go for longevity in this game.
I took this trade for two reasons: Fundamentals & Technicals. I'll break down both.
The Six Most Important Fundamentals
Firstly, the six most important fundamentals looked good. You can take a look at the fundamentals, here .
The fundamentals are broken down into six categories
Value
Dilution
Cash
Debt
Growth
Effectiveness
Here are some metrics for $SI:
Value
P/B: 1
P/E < 20
Dilution
< 25 million shares out
Cash
P/C < 5
P/FCF < 5
Debt
D/E: 7
Long-term D/E: 0
Growth
Quarterly Revenue Growth > 5%
Quarterly Earnings Growth > 20%
Effectivness
Return on Assets > 0%
Return on Equity > 0%
Return on Capital Employed > 0%
These six fundamental criteria cover virtually all aspects of a stock's fundamentals, and it's the best way to get a clean, holistic view of a business.
These six fundamental criteria all kinds of stocks, whether they are high-growth, value-based, dividend-paying, small-cap, etc
Sometimes, businesses may have high debt (like this one).
However, if they have good cash-flow, that, in some ways, balances the high debt.
Why? Good cash-flows will be used to pay off the debt.
On Risk And Relax , you can choose the fundamental factors that you think are the most important, and ignore the rest.
This way, you can cleanly analyze a business without the noise.
In this case, $SI had a good score of over 65% when considering all six fundamental criteria.
Now, let's look at the technicals.
The Most Important Technicals
There are several technical indicators, but in my opinion, the most important "indicator" is market structure.
In other words, is the price shows signs of a bottom?
I want to see the price in the shape of a 'W'.
And around April of this year, that's exactly what I saw.
The Bottom Line
All other technical indicators are fine, but they add noise.
The goal should always be to subtract noise.
And the best way to do this is to focus solely on price action (market structure) and the six key fundamentals.
If both are a go, then I feel comfortable buying!
So, that's what I did. I bought @ $9, and I sold half of my position when the price hit $18.
I had the conviction to keep holding because of the fundamentals.
I hope this helped.
I also made a YouTube video on this investment. Check it out!
NZDUSD - Follow up to previous post This is a follow up to my previous post and is here simply to show the effectiveness of the Elliott Wave Principle and one way to apply it.
We shorted this ending diagonal right after closing our longs because for 2 reasons : 1) We got an Ending Diagonal wave 5 which should be followed by a sharp reversal.
2) We got could count 5 waves up, and the wave principle tells us that a reversal should then follow.
Here's how we played this with my subscribers:
14 Oct 18:13 :I'm shorting this one. 20pip risk is nothing
16 Oct 01:23 : Our short was a great idea and played out perfectly here. I'm going to close and take 2/3 of my profits and move stop to 6652 for the rest.
20 Oct 01:52 : I prepared the chart yesterday but didn't find the time to look it up today and sadly missed a nice opportunity to re-enter again on those one... Sorry 🙏
Let's now see if it can go outside this rising channel and below 6576 at which point we maybe can get a new shorting possibility.
20 Oct 17:09 : Testing lower channel line. If it stays sideways here, we could get a new short entry possibility.
BYND - Big up if support holdsBYND - Here's a new one for our watchlist. Not sure a retest of the support zone is for right now but once 5 up are done, it's a possibility and occasion for a long.
For now, it looks like a simple wave 4 correction.
A break above the channel should take this for a fifth wave higher.
Managing Risk using the Long and Short ToolThis is a companion video to my "Trade Like a Pirate" article showing how the Long & Short tool can help you manage your "aRRR" - Your Reward-to-Risk Ratio. Whether you are trading a Company, a Currency, or Commodity, you want to Consistently trade your positions in terms of Risk and Reward for consistent results and to not "blow up your account" with a bad trade.
NZDCAD - Good R/R Set up - TRADE OPPORTUNITY Technical view of - NZDCAD -
Whilst having fun doing my weekend analysis for the week ahead, I do this to plan my week ahead - I'd like to share a good trade opportunity for you for next week!
Pattern - Head and shoulders / Bear Flag
- Measuring the patterns both = to good Support areas.
- If it goes above the areas of where the shoulder should be - the pattern of H&S is no longer validated - I would then concentrate more on the Bear flag formation building, for further confirmation you could wait for the break out and trade the pull back or get in where you think is appropriate following your trade plan.
Within my analysis - I have clarified where I'd be taking profit - Profit 1 & 2, I tend to scale out of trading taking profits due to psychological reason, which there are great books out there and mentors to help you with this - if you're interested within learning more about this - message privately. Again, follow what your plan - I will be only taking 60-70% of my profits at profit 1 area (Depending on price action at that moment of time) and the rest at profit area 2. (You could even go through lower time frames for day trading set up opportunities - Higher time frame = Shorter time frame movement).
Key tips: All alerts and don't forget to put an appropriate STOP. It's good R/R trade.
Remember: Just a trade idea, not a recommendation.
Have a great week ahead!
All the best,
Trade Journal
XAGUSD, Silver looking for lower prices. Gartley SellAfter an ABCD correction from the recent low, Im now looking for more downside to the 23.00 area to complete the bigger ABCD Pattern from the Oct 12th high. Only risking 25 points is a great R/R.
EURCAD. Wave 4 setting up for a Gartley Sell. Waiting for the EURCAD to pull back into the Sell area. This will create a great R/R trade to the downside.
American Electric Power - Good risk to reward stock trade idea! Looks like a good setup to go long. It may take couple of weeks to hit the target, but good wait for 1:2 risk to reward ratio.
Disclaimer: This is neither recommendation nor advise to invest/trade. This is my journal for educational purpose only
NASDAQ. Buy zone. GartleyExpecting the Nasdaq to pullback to the 50-61.8% area then start an impulsive move higher which could potentially take us into the elections especially if we get some stimulus.
50 point risk is a great opportunity.
Double Gartley patterns.
CADJPY. Low risk Sell entry.CADJPY has already completed a larger TF Gartley but I have gone to a smaller TF to enter short possibly to complete the bigger ABCD to the downside at 79.00.
Low risk entry is what I like. If im wrong then no major loss. SL above recent high @ 80.08.
S&P500 - New high comingAlthough we have the risk of this being a 3 waves rise, by the looks of it I tihnk we'll see a new high as this move has the caracteristics of a corrective wave 4.
Looking at the number of stocks that keep on breaking out of corrective bases and making new highs (look at my profile) but also looking at the Advance/Decline Line we can see that we have positive divergence with ADL making new high while the indexes are still below their previous high, this gives me confidence in my outlook that the move higher will continue.
AMD - Long towards 90/92 then bigger pullback before big rally ?Just follow the noted path.
If wave (iv) has ended then we should see the fifth wave higher, completing a higher degree wave 1.
We then need to see a corrective wave 2 that must hold above the beginning of wave 1 at 73.80 for this stock to rally to new highs.
APPLE - Correction over? Looks like it (for now)Should continue higher, 120-124 would be the first target zone followed by 130 after a correction.
If price goes below 105.1, leave the ship, it's going to sink.
If you're looking for a more short term move, you can use 112.4 as your stop
DADA - Potential to double in the next month(s) !We got a nice based that formed here in form of a complexe correction which ended with a triangle wave Y.
Now we should continue higher as long as price remains above 25$ !
