Rivian looking juicy on multiple different indicatorsHey everyone this will be my first post ever on this website and im super excited to be able to share my ideas and see what people think. Normally this isnt something I do but Rivian has been something special for me.
Anyways Currently predicting an Eve Adam pattern which I have found to be bullish through tests in the past and most people are familiar with Adam and Eve pattern but as of lately that has shown to be more bearish than bullish in my opinion and from what I have seen in the past year.
If this pattern plays out then we could see rivian going up into the $39-$40 price target range. MacD on the daily just flipped, RSI has plenty of room to the upside, and Stochastic RSI is pushing upwards. We bounced off the POC (Point of Control) at $14.87 which has since moved up to $15.34.
FOMC is today and rates will most likely stay the same but if we see a cut markets will go bananas because its not priced in for a decrease. Earnings are February 21st but this is for Q4 of 2023 which were good for Rivian despite not selling as many cars as they have hoped.
On the Shorter term 2H chart we are seeing a head and shoulders pattern as well, a flipping of the MacD, and RSI staying above 50, as well as Stochastic RSI curling back up.
Rivian
RIVIAN Low risk buy opportunity at least on the short-term.Rivian Automotive (RIVN) hit the $21.00 Target following our November 29 2023 (see chart below) buy call but even though it confidently broke above the Bearish Megaphone, the price corrected aggressively back even below the Higher Lows Zone:
The price is at the moment coming off an oversold 1D RSI Double Bottom, naturally below both the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). Even though the long-term pattern remains a Channel Up (blue), we have to consider the possibility of the (dashed) Channel Down breaking below it and establishing a new long-term trend. Until that happens, this is a short-term buy opportunity, with our Target being $23.00, right at the top of the Channel Down, on the (dotted) median of the Channel Up, representing a +62.17% rise from the Channel's bottom, similar to the December 26 2023 Lower High (peak).
If then we get a 1W candle closing above the 1W MA100 (yellow trend-line), which will be the stock's first time to do so, we will buy the bullish break-out and pursue our long-term Target of $35.50, which will represent a +142.79% rise from the bottom, similar to the last Bullish Leg of the long-term Channel Up that peaked on July 27 2023.
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RIVN Is Rivian the next TSLA?Yesterday, I observed some unusual blocks of calls in the options chain expiring on Feb 23, following the earnings release.
One of the most substantial positions was in the $20 strike price call, with options traders paying $1.7 million in premium.
Listening to analysts, some mentioned they expect a 'TSLA Model 3 moment' from RIVN as well.
In addition to Amazon, which has agreed to purchase 100,000 delivery vans from Rivian, AT&T is set to acquire its electric vans and R1 vehicles in a new pilot program starting in early 2024.
On the other hand, the CEO stated that he anticipates Rivian reaching a break-even point on each EV built by the end of this year. We will likely hear more about this on the earnings call.
I am extremely bullish on Rivian's upcoming earnings release!
RIVIAN Channel Up targeting $35.50Rivian (RIVN) gave us a great break-out buy entry on our previous November 29 analysis (see chart below) as it broke above the Inner Lower Highs and hit our $21.00 target:
The pattern that is now dominating the 1D log chart is a Channel Up. The 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) is about to negate the recently made Death Cross and cross back again above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) to form a Golden Cross. This will be a strong bullish continuation signal for the current bullish leg of the Channel Up. We are bullish again on this stock, targeting $35.50, which is the 1.382 Fibonacci extension, the Feb level where the previous Higher High was made.
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Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ: $RIVN) Meteoric Rise
Rivian (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:RIVN ) has been a roller coaster since its initial public offering (IPO) in late 2021. Except it's only been one part of the roller coaster ride: the part where it sharply drops. Rivian has shed roughly 80% of its value since its IPO, but as the company heads into 2024 with some momentum, is the time finally right for investors to jump back in?
Fundamentals Analysis
New batteries
Let's talk about something else that could move the needle for Rivian investors: its new battery packs. Recently its chief financial officer, Claire McDonough, detailed a couple of interesting battery developments.
Rivian is introducing a standard battery pack that lowers the selling price of R1 vehicles from roughly $78,000 down to $70,000, opening up a larger addressable market. But it also teased a new battery that's simpler to manufacture. The simpler battery is expected to remove thousands of dollars of costs from production.
That's perfect timing for a company that has its sights set on becoming gross-profit positive in 2024 and has already made substantial progress in cutting its loss per vehicle. In fact, its gross profit per vehicle improved by $2,000 sequentially in the third quarter.
Better yet, Rivian will begin construction of its Georgia plant in early 2024, which will set the stage to roll out its new R2 vehicles by 2026. Those vehicles are set to sell for roughly $30,000 less than its R1 vehicles, broadening its target market.
Is Rivian a Buy?
NASDAQ:RIVN is truly making improvements in a lot of areas, including reducing its cash crunch, expanding its options to sell delivery vans, and setting the stage for new vehicles and new battery packs. And it hasn't had to deal with tense labor negotiations because its sole factory is not unionized. Remember that Ford and GM are busy offsetting billions in cost increases from their new United Auto Workers contracts.
Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:RIVN ) is trading above the 50, 100 & 200-day Moving Averages Respectively, indicating continual of the current trend.
Rivian Stock Surged Today: Here's Why It Could Keep SoaringRivian (NASDAQ: RIVN) stock is trading above its 10-day, 20-day, and 50-day exponential moving averages (EMAs), indicating an upward trend. The 10-day EMA is acting as a dynamic support level, while the 50-day EMA is acting as a long-term trend line.
The stock is also above its 200-day simple moving average (SMA), which is a bullish sign. However, the stock is below its 100-day EMA and SMA, which could act as resistance levels in the future. The relative strength index (RSI) is at 58.7, which is neither overbought nor oversold.
The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) is positive and above its signal line, which is a bullish sign.
Rivian is also trading above its pivot point of $17.76, which is a bullish sign. The next resistance levels are at $18.69, $19.35, and $20.28. The next support levels are at $17.10, $16.17, and $15.51.
Rivian stock is in a strong uptrend and has positive momentum. However, some of the oscillators are indicating that the stock is overbought and could face a correction in the near term.
RIVIAN Potential triple bullish break-out ahead. Target $21.00.Rivian Automotive (RIVN) remained supported within the (green) Higher Lows Zone and on a significant Bullish Divergence on the 1D RSI (in the form of a Channel Up). This is an early bullish sentiment signal but the real technical catalyst is right ahead.
That is the Triple Resistance zone consisting of the Inner Lower Highs trend-line as well as the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). This is a strong bullish combo signal if broken but in our personal opinion breaking and closing a 1D candle above the Inner Lower Highs will suffice. If successful, we will target $21.00 (the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, which would make a Lower High at the top of the 4-month Bearish Megaphone (the 0.618 Fib was where the previous Lower High was formed).
The pattern since the July 27 top is a Bearish Megaphone and Tuesday's low isn't only a Higher Low on the Support Zone but also a technical Lower Low on the Megaphone's bottom. The previous Lower Low rebound formed a top on the 0.618 Fibonacci level. As a result our short-term bullish target is $21.00.
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$LTHM STOCK - Time for Growth?📈 LIVENT Lithium Analysis - CHINA Destocking / Supply shocks & Merger Speculations
Welcome to Helios Capital Investment! In today's video, we dive deep into the world of lithium and dissect the financial landscape of Livent Corporation (Ticker Symbol: LTHM), a key player in lithium extraction and refining.
🌐 Market Dynamics:
With the lithium market being a crucial player in the global shift towards electric vehicles and renewable energy, Livent has been navigating through turbulent waters. Our analysis explores the impact of China's destocking efforts on lithium prices and how Livent is positioned to weather this storm.
💼 Merger Imminent?
Rumors are swirling about a potential merger, and we break down the implications for Livent and its investors. What could this mean for the company's strategic positioning and market share?
📊 Financial Performance:
Delving into Livent's financials, we examine revenue trends, costs, and the company's ability to maintain a competitive edge in the lithium sector. How has Livent performed in comparison to industry benchmarks, and what does this mean for its future?
📉📈 Stock Analysis:
We take a close look at Livent's stock performance, assessing key indicators and considering factors such as valuation and growth potential. Is now the right time to invest, or are there warning signs that investors should be aware of?
🤔 Key Questions Addressed:
How is Livent positioned in the face of China's destocking efforts?
What are the potential outcomes and impacts of a rumored merger?
Can Livent maintain its competitive edge in the lithium market?
👍 If you find this analysis valuable, don't forget to like, share, and subscribe for more in-depth financial content! Let's navigate the markets together.
RIVIAN: Buy signal emerged.Rivian has found support inside April's HL Zone while the 1D RSI flattened. The 1D technical outlook is only slightly bearish (RSI = 42.485, MACD = -1.120, ADX = 38.728) despite being inside a Channel Down since July 27th. Technically it is replicating the January-April correction, which eventually bottomed when the 1D RSI flattened.
We use the 1D MA200 rejection as a short term buy signal, aiming at the 1D MA50 (TP = 20.00).
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RIVN Rivian Automotive Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold RIVN ahead of the previous earnings:
or here:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of RIVN Rivian Automotive prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 18.50usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2023-11-17,
for a premium of approximately $0.89.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
RIVIAN hit the long-term Buy Zone. Target $21.00.Rivian Automotive (RIVN) hit the Higher Lows Zone and the 1D MACD is close to forming a Bullish Cross. This is a strong bullish combo signal but attention is needed as the price is below both the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
The pattern since the July 27 top is a Bearish Megaphone and Tuesday's low isn't only a Higher Low on the Support Zone but also a technical Lower Low on the Megaphone's bottom. The previous Lower Low rebound formed a top on the 0.618 Fibonacci level. As a result our short-term bullish target is $21.00.
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Rivian is trading in a dangerous zone - be patientHello ,
Although Rivian, since it deals with electric cars, is obviously a highly speculative paper. (Since everyone is looking for the next Tesla right now.) If you're thinking about buying Rivian stock, keep in mind that the red zone is a neutral level.
The exchange rate moves in exactly one area, where it can move up and down by 10-20%. So it is not worth taking a position here in any way. Because it would be suicide.
All important things are visible on the graph. Below the red zone, the $13 level could be a good buy zone. Above the red zone, the $38 price target looks realistic.
Do not forget. This does not constitute investment advice. Do your own research before entering a position.
Regards
In extreme cases, we can count on new lows. But this would be triggered by very negative news that directly affects the company or the EV sector.
RIVIAN This channel can lead it to $32Rivian closed the week over the MA50 (1d) and since it held both the MA200 (1d) and Support (1) intact, has most likely invalidated the scenario of Lower Lows.
We may see a 4-6 upward consolidation first as last March-May, before a new yearly High.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the opening price.
Targets:
1. 32.00 (Fibonacci Channel 3.0 extension).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) crossed over its Falling Resistance. A strong sign of accumulated bullish momentum.
Please like, follow and comment!!
+42% Rivian Rivian Automotive, Inc. is an American electric vehicle manufacturer and automotive technology company founded in 2009. Rivian is building an electric sport utility vehicle (SUV) and pickup truck on a "skateboard" platform that can support future vehicles or be adopted by other companies. An electric delivery van is also being built as part of a partnership with Amazon. Rivian started deliveries of its R1T pickup truck in late 2021. The company plans to build an exclusive charging network in the United States and Canada by the end of 2023.
Rivian is based in Irvine, California, with its manufacturing plant in Normal, Illinois, and other facilities in Palo Alto, California; Carson, California; Plymouth, Michigan; Vancouver, British Columbia; Wittmann, Arizona; and Woking, England. Additionally, Rivian has plans to build another US$5 billion factory in Georgia.
The company raised over US$13.5 billion in financing following its IPO in November 2021.
RIVIAN Confirmed sell signal after Higher Lows break-out.Rivian Automotive (RIVN) broke yesterday below the Higher Lows 1 trend-line, which was supporting since the June 27 Low. With a clear rejection on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) the day before, this bearish break-out may create a Channel Down that could target the Higher Lows 2 trend-line. Until then, we have the critical 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) Support to consider. As a result, following also the completion of a 1D MACD Bearish Cross yesterday, we are bearish now, targeting $18.50 (1D MA200).
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$RIVN Getting ready for a HTF move to $15-$16
Global liquidity is trending down
Bearish RSI divergence on AMEX:SPY and NASDAQ:QQQ
NASDAQ:RIVN like practically all EV stocks and Tech stocks are over-extended from MA's
Daily TD 8 Count
$27.16 may have been the HOY. If not, I'm expecting for big money to push price up to $28 before we see a steep pullback or reversal. NASDAQ:RIVN has not tested the daily 50, 100, or 200 in a long time. The daily 9-EMA has been holding every test recently. Will look for break of the daily 9-EMA for confirmation.
I've dabbled in options. Might look for some December puts and short an equity position for intraday moves.
Remember, we want to lose on the idea, not the execution. Make sure to look for entries near levels you can risk against.
Good luck!
RIVN Rivian Automotive Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold RIVN on the recalls:
Or last time ahead of earnings:
Then Analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of UPWK Upwork prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 10usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-1-19,
for a premium of approximately $1.92.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
Ford - A Cautious Post-ER Long ScalpFord is one of the richest charts among all of the U.S. equities to chew and savour for an analyst.
The reason is, its relevant price action to today spans some 22 years, and we can only see it on the monthly:
Notably, $26~ was a curious place for price action to stop and reject 18 months ago, leaving monthly hallmarks of potential targets
And looking at the weekly:
The rejection was so gappy, closed in ranges not seen on the monthly, but left open ranges not seen on the weekly.
And yet in 18 months, the flat bottom formed under $12 is no cause for bullish continuation. "Support" as retail traders are taught to believe in, is made to be broken.
Therefore, this chart would absolutely never be a long, in my opinion, except that price action you can only see on the daily has created a set of goalposts.
And those goalposts are at the $15.42 level, which formed a perfect double top composing the July high.
Before we begin, I want to warn you that trading the markets right now come with significant geopolitical risks surrounding China.
The International Rules Based Order is frequently going off about "de-risking" from China, but not "decoupling," and the meaning of this is pretty significant.
You should note that the propaganda machine is always targeting "China" but not "The Chinese Communist Party."
Don't you think it's strange that despite the CCP's 100 years of murdering significantly more of its own people than Hitler did in general that the global Party doesn't take advantage of the CCP's heinous human rights abuses and totalitarianism to take it down?
Instead, they're always going after China, its 5,000 year old culture, and its 1.4 billion pre-Wuhan Pneumonia population?
It's because the IRBO wants to take control of China as the CCP falls. They won't take control of it directly, because they're not Chinese, but will install a puppet from Taiwan.
And this is where "War With Taiwan" garrling comes from. It's not that Xi Jinping is going to invade Taiwan, but that the IRBO intends to take control of China with Taiwan as a proxy.
But Xi can always weaponize the 24 year persecution of Falun Gong, started by former Chairman Jiang Zemin on July 20, 1999, to protect himself and China, because Wall Street and the World Government have been extensively visiting Shanghai (Shanghai Gigafactory what?) to train Marxism.
And training Marxism in Shanghai means depositing collateral with the CCP.
Xi has never persecuted Falun Gong. Instead, Xi has even protected Falun Gong from the Jiangling thugs in Hong Kong, and that was the real purpose of the National Security Law and the installation of John Lee as Chief Executive.
Notable that Lee was banned from attending the San Francisco APEC conference in November by Joe Biden, in that light, wouldn't you say?
So, back to trading.
Generally, the market makers will not leave this kind of double top in play, because short sellers love to go bigly short under them because "it's strong resistance," before taking new lows.
It's noteworthy that Ford is only a ~$50 billion company. Compare that to Tesla and decide which company is over/undervalued.
And all of that is just theoretical, but when we combine it with the fact that Friday's earnings were actually pretty good, but Ford dumped, and back into the box that preceeded its breakout, making it a classic breakout-retrace long, we have a trade setup.
So here's the idea.
Unfortunately, I believe that there is extremely high probabilities that the indexes are topping to end July or to begin August, which I go over here:
# SPX - The Sound of a Shattering Iceberg
Ford would probably get drug down in a 200+ point SPX correction.
That means that while we have significant bullish upside targets, at the $18 and $22 levels, all of the long term price action considered, we probably have to raid the bottom under $10 before Ford can really and truly rally during an index recovery.
So what we have is a long from where we are on Friday, +/- $12.80, with a target of $16.
This is a pretty nice range to collect.
Rather than use a strict price based stop, what I would like to say is that if Ford does not trade up and away from this $13 level within the next two weeks, it would indicate that big money is up to something else, and a long trade is either not valid or too risky to bother with.
Conversely, if you're bold and brave, shorts/puts over $15.50 with a target under $10 before 2024 may equal an even better payout and risk reward setup.
This trade is something of a coinflip that I only have moderate confidence in. What I have confidence in is that the MMs will not leave $15.50 in tact before they really dump it.
I also don't believe they'll leave these perfect flat bottoms in tact before they pump it.
So, be careful, and good luck. Plays like this are a lot better than gambling on the latest dumpster fire coin (AMC, SPWR, lol) spread on Marxist messenger Reddit.
SPY - A Dip Is Coming. Maybe Buy It?The question at the top of everyone's minds right now is: have the markets topped?
It's the kind of question that allows for a great deal of manipulation as sentiment, emotions, and the P&L column are manipulated violently.
Since the markets were wildly bullish last quarter, inside of an overall market that is not bullish, and economic fundamentals that are pretty bad, your guard should certainly be up when you see a new quarter begin and price continue to run rampant.
I discuss the parameters of a new quarter in the below post:
SPX/ES - An Analysis Of The 'JPM Collar
And elaborate my feelings on the Nasdaq here:
Nasdaq - The Great Bear Trap
Caveat to the above is I now expect the Nas to only do, say, 14,400 and ultimately target the 16,000 figure.
You're in an overall market where the US Petrodollar is set to rally, and rally hard:
DXY - The US Petrdollar And The "Prigozhin Coup" In Russia
Even though the dollar might only do 108.
And our good friend the VIX is too low to be sustainable for any kind of bull run, because they love "selling volatility and going away," so things need to be reset.
VIX - The 72-Handle Prelude
Geopolitically, there are a lot of problems. Specifically with China.
Since Secretary of Treasury Yellen visited Beijing to meet with Xi Jinping and other government officials, there has suddenly been a huge posturing of "Taiwan war" rhetoric in the whole international media propaganda apparatus.
China is in no condition to try to invade Taiwan after the damage the pandemic has caused for the last three years, however.
In my view, what's really going on is the Chinese Communist Party is about to either be forcibly overthrown by "outside forces" (NATO, Washington, the "International Rules Based Order") via Taiwan.
Or Xi is about to dump the CCP to defend the motherland, since he and his faction are major Chinese nationalists.
Either way, you have to be very careful if you want to go long on dips. Don't full port or anything stupid, and if you want to go bigly long, do yourself a favour and hedge long on something with volatility.
Because whatever happens will happen in Beijing time, which happens to be 12 hours ahead of New York time.
Meaning whatever happens will be gap down time.
And if Xi dumps the Party and weaponizes the 24-year long persecution of Falun Gong by former CCP Chairman Jiang Zemin and its Shanghai (Babylon) toadling faction, the entire world is going to be implicated in the inquest.
Because everyone has been going over to the Mainland to dirty themselves with Jiang and the Spectre of Communism in order to get the financial and social benefits they desire.
But as long as things stay on course, here's the call.
When it comes to SPY, it's hard to argue what is up isn't going to keep going up.
If you ask me, the first target has to be the $461 March of 2022 high.
But we've been up a lot for a long time, and SPY set its thus-far July low at $437 on only the third trading day of the month, which was a shortened week because of Canada Day and Independence Day to begin with.
You can see that something is amiss by looking at the SPX Futures contract against the DXY, which lost 400 pips in roughly 10 days, marking a significant and strange divergence.
Another significant tell is in the Dow, which is the weakest of the indexes right now and a leader, where the DIA ETF made a new high (2 cents, hard to see) but the underlying futures contract did not.
This may indicate that the alleged bullish momentum from last week is fraudulent, at least in the short term. Possibly the long term.
Friday's market action was really bullish on open and then really bearish on close, which likely means we're due for a reversal.
We have an entire eight trading days until the next FOMC rate announcement.
After July, there's no meeting until September.
So what I think we're about to see is to have a proper July low of the month get set.
And before the month ends we'll see a bounce, and our bounce will lead to the $463 target being achieved during the first week of August.
And so if we have a middling/strugglebus Monday, it's worth considering reducing your long exposure, if you have long exposure.
I think the $433 figure is the target because everyone is a Mason in reality and they just love 33 so much. It also doesn't break the June pivot, which aligns with the August of '22 pivot that was already taken out.
More importantly, if $463 is achieved, you have to be exceedingly cautious.
There's a certain degree of "financial shocks" that are arranged for Q4 and Q1, 2, and maybe even 3 of 2024 that you will find exceptionally difficult to endure.
So make sure you make up for any regrets you have with your friends and family, as soon as possible.
Make sure you stand on the right side of history when it comes to humanity's future and the CCP and its Marxist-Leninist junk.
Money, fame, power, and sex aren't worth selling your soul for.
Rivian 'Dead Cat Bounce' Over?I have been getting a lot of questions from followers about NASDAQ:RIVN in recent weeks. One of the favorites of the 2021 EV stock craze the share price has done not performed well since the IPO. This recent very bullish move has gotten a lot of attention but I think it has come to an end.
Price Action
Like most of my setups I am looking at RIVN hitting a major 50% Retracement this one being from the downtrend starting in September 2022 through April 2023. That Resistance at 26.71 was hit yesterday and today's price action shows reluctance to test and break it. I have been looking for a pullback to this bull trend to its own 50% Retracement at around ~20 and it may be upon us.
The Trade
Earnings are coming up on August 8th. That sets up a nice window for monthly options of the August 18th expiration. Since 20 is the approximate pullback level it also makes for a proper strike. That means Aug23 20 Puts will be the choice to express the trade. If price breaks the recent high I may look to cut them as they should maintain their premium with earnings getting closer. I also do not typically hold through earnings but rather try to close the day before to avoid the 50/50 probability of the binary event.
The Narrative
I still see the occasional Rivian on the road but as of late I have become a Tesla Maxi. Tesla had record production and delivery for Q2 2023 but every other EV manufacturer is struggling according to recent reports. The market as a whole has enjoyed an optimistic bull run since March and is due for a pullback.