Rivian found support at its Tangible Book Value - key metricRivian is still a young company trying to prove its model can make a profit. They have a pile of cash and along way until they can break even in their business model.
Tangible book is all tangible assets minus liabilities. Tangible meaning physical and cash like assets but not including intangible like brands and patents.
Tangible assets may also be a better measure of liquidation value.
Rivian
RIVIAN: Buy the next pull backRivian Automotive is on the 0.5 Fibonacci level, approaching the top of the 2 month Channel Up with the 1D technicals on solid bullish levels (RSI = 61.905, MACD = 0.260, ADX = 28.294). We will short on the first red 1D candle and target the 1D MA50, where we will open a buy again. The target will be R1 (TP = 17.75). The long term trend on RIVN remains bearish though, we want to see a steady close above the 1D MA200 to buy this for the long term. Noticeably the RSI has been on a Bullish Divergence since the start of the year.
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RIVN - A competitor for Tesla?Rivian Automotive (RIVN) stock has recently hit a new 52-week low due to various factors, making it a highly volatile investment. The company's lower-than-expected production output in 2023, cash burn rate, and intensifying EV truck market competition have contributed to this decline. RIVN's Q1'23 deliveries beat estimates, but its 9.39K quarterly production remains unimpressive compared to the 50K annual guidance for FY2023. Furthermore, the company's cash burn rate is unsustainable, with a reliance on debt and capital raises until it achieves positive cash flow.
Increased competition in the EV truck market is also a concern, with Ford and General Motors reporting success in their respective segments. Rivian's R1T has garnered positive reviews, but its price is significantly higher than competitors' base models. The stock remains suitable for investors with higher risk tolerances and a long-term investing trajectory. Despite recent recovery, RIVN's uncertain outlook combined with the macroeconomic environment makes the stock very unattractive.
From a technical perspective, we may see a move to the upside that reaches the pink area marked on the chart between $17 and $18 but the higher probability move is a continuation to the downside, either from here or from the target area.
We will keep you updated on any changes we see on the chart. In the meantime, please trade with care and stay safe!
Keep selling, because I’m buying After up is down, after down is up.
The market is a lot simpler then most make it out to be. The R1S is a beautiful car and I see it in the streets. Rivian charging network is expanding and they’re releasing new models. Institutions are just shaking out weak hands, get your bags of rivian for these once in a lifetime low ass prices and diamond hand this shit. That price is going back to $50 at least.
RIVN Rivian Recalls Its Vehicles Due to Loose FastenersRivian Recalls its Vehicles Due to Loose Fasteners improperly that could cause excess wheel tilt and a potential loss of steering control.
Buying a car from a new producer that doesn`t have experience in the market like the traditional ones, comes with a lot of risk involved, like the one mentioned above. I haven`t heard F Ford Motor Company, of which i`m bullish btw, to have such issues.
I expect a retracement to at least $26.50.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
RIVN DAILY WOLFE WAVE ACTIVEAnother daily wolfe wave setup was triggered post midterms. The chart for RIVN is closing in on the 200 day ma which will act as short term resistance. Typically the first attempt usually rejects which will be approx at 37.4. Mid term tgt is estimated at $54 May 2023. With tax losses and Christmas rally into end of year, we should see most of the small caps rally and accelerate into Feb 2023. Keep in mind there is an open gap at $140.
RIVN Rivian Automotive options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold RIVN Rivian after the bad news:
Then looking at the RIVN Rivian Automotive options chain ahead of earnings, i would buy the $30 strike price Puts with
2023-6-16 expiration date for about
$6.60 premium.
If the options turn out to be profitable Before the earnings release, i would sell at least 50%.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
Last Chance to Buy Rivian Before Major Bull RunThis is a daily chart of EV manufacturer Rivian Automotive ( RIVN ).
Price continues to consolidate as the moving averages converge.
On the right-hand side is the indicator called the Visible Range Volume Profile (VRVP). This indicator provides a vertical histogram of volume. The volume bars help identify the price ranges where most volume has occurred, which helps traders identify areas of support and resistance.
The indicator provides a red line to show the exact price level with the greatest trading volume and therefore the strongest point of support or resistance. When price comes down, as in the case of Rivian, and then forms a red line on the VRVP, it often becomes an important support level. An extremely bullish perspective might even go so far as to surmise that this area of support is the bottom for Rivian and that a major bull run is about to unfold with this red line as its support area.
From a Wyckoff analysis, one might conclude that accumulation is occurring. According to that analysis, price can retest the low right before the breakout phase.
Also, note Rivian's outperformance in the month of June. Even as inflation and commodities were soaring, major indices were gapping down, and the Fed was accelerating hiking rates, Rivian continued to consolidate, trading in a tight range and making higher lows (see below chart).
Rivian's outperformance of the broader index, after such a prolonged decline, is probably an early sign of a trend reversal and likely reflects that smart money is accumulating. A good chartist would know that inflation is cooling because commodities are now being resisted by the lines that once supported their upward trend. Necessarily, aggressive interest rate hike expectations will soon cool, too. The market is always forward-looking. By the time the Fed says that inflation is cooling and makes a pivot to being less aggressive, smart money will already be fully in the market.
Therefore, there is high confidence that Rivian may soon break out to the upside (probably in July). Don't let a temporary oscillation to the downside fool you. Nonetheless, as always, have your stop losses in place as the market can act irrationally longer than you can stay solvent. Never be unwilling to accept that you're wrong. Trading isn't about being right, it's about preserving and growing capital.
Tesla Postpones Descent Below $500 | Digital Surf TradingThe supreme Tesla giant has postponed its tremendous descent below $500 as the previously anticipated Extended Flat has turned out to be a Running Flat correction instead. With a level of concrete support established in the $700 range, the EV leader is now due for a new all-time high in its Wave 5 move which should allow Bulls to reach between $1700 and $2300 by Summer/Fall 2023.
The science of price action lets us know that after a 5 wave move completes, a 3 wave correction is to follow. For Tesla, this means that its postponed downswing should see the levels of $170 at most and a mind-boggling $35 at the least -- within the next 3-4 years.
I believe there is decent chance that Tesla turns into the next greatest bubble stock. The alternative being that its price will reach beyond $100,000/share during the 2030s, which I'm just super doubtful about. I have no position with or against this stock so I share this with 0 bias and am simply looking forward to see how the price action develops.
RIVIAN About to break its 3 month Channel upwardsBack in May we called for a short-term buy on Rivian (RIVN) but warned investors not to get overexcited:
This time however we find quite a few reasons to be excited as following the break above its Falling Wedge, the stock formed a Channel Up that is about to break upwards on today's strong rise. Within this Channel, the price also succeeded in breaking above both the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) and in fact a Bullish Cross between the two is emerging.
The 1W RSI has been steadily rising from its previous oversold state and is now above the 40.00 mark, so if the price breaks above the Channel Up, we expect RIVN to aim for the 56.90 March 30 High, which is the current Resistance. A break above that level, which happens to be on the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level form the market Top, would constitute a long-term trend shift to bullish.
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RIVNPROBABLE ACCUMULATION/ REDISTRIBUTION.
if there is bad bias for the company---i still think we are bearish until there are clear signs of reversal. Therefore, its likely to see far more downside. I am just guessing around high volume; price will stop here and consolidate. THUS, I think Wyckoff will be better analysis for RIVIAN
RIVIAN is short-term bullish but don't get overexcited.Rivian Automotive (RIVN) is (for the time being) on a green 1D candle, the first after 5 straight bearish days. Its 1D RSI has rebounded from its massively oversold levels, the same levels that previously caused price increases of roughly +42% and +69% (Jan 27 and March 14). The rebound on the first sequence hit the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level while the second hit the 0.618 Fib.
Right now those levels are at $38.22 and $42.63. However those aren't just above the Falling Wedge pattern that has directed the trend since mid-February, but also above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) which hasn't allowed any 1D candle closing above it and in fact had a strong rejection on March 30, which is the current Resistance and formed the last Lower High of the Falling Wedge.
As a result, we are setting lower targets on this expected short-term rebound. A new +69% rise puts our Target at $33.00, which is a level where the price may make contact with the 1D MA50. On the long-term, the trend remains bearish, especially within the Falling Wedge, unless the price breaks above the last Lower High and 56.90 Resistance, which is where the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) currently is.
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$RIVN Rivian Oversold - Lockup Expiry Sell-Off$RIVN Rivian Oversold - Lockup Expiry Sell-Off
This $20-$22 range looks like an attractive risk-reward scenario in my opinion. Insider/early investor lockup period expired earlier this week, driving the large sell volume yesterday. Big earnings call tomorrow reporting on a quarter where deliveries were ramping up - expecting a positive market reaction.
For comparison, Rivian's market cap now sits around $19B vs Tesla market cap over $800B. Obviously Tesla is years ahead of Rivian and has the sales and profit to back up a beefier valuation. But if Rivian grows to be even a quarter of the company Tesla is, long term there is major upside here in my opinion.
Near term price target: $32-$36 range by late May
Medium term price target: $50+ possible by mid June
Note: This is NOT investment advice. Opinion only.
EV's Costs SkyrocketingZinc, Cobalt, Palladium, and Lithium are raw materials that go into batteries. The prices of these raw materials have skyrocketed. This means that electric vehicle producers that need these materials to make their batteries are about to see price increases for their products. Electric car makers like Tesla and Rivian will be forced to pass these prices onto consumers. Expect inflation across the supply chain.
RIVN: Deep Value PlayOkay, this one is a bit different than my normal charts. Rivian Automotive only started trading late November of last year so there's not enough historical data to draw from to give a complete picture. However, RIVN is a high-profile startup in a hot industry with motivated billionaires backing it. It wants to be TSLA, but you wouldn't know it based on the 50% price discount from its IPO. Despite it's gloomy performance--or perhaps *because* of it--it's actually looking like an attractive buy at these prices. It appears to be in my buy zone, and there's bullish divergence, but there's not enough data to show me where the momentum/pressure is. I think this is a great value play for a long-term investor.
Good Luck
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These are my personal views and not financial advice. Please do your own research before investing.
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RIVN you can still buy it cheaper than Soros If you haven`t bought the all time low here:
then you should know that you can still buy cheaper than George Soros.
Billionaire investor George Soros bought a $2 billion stake in electric truck startup Rivian in the quarter ended Dec. 31.
His average should be around $100.
My short term price target is 69.50.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
$RIVN wants lower. Low to mid-20s? Or even lower?If we look at the chart, $RIVN seems to be making lower highs and lower lows.
This recent move up was just a retest of resistance at $47. On top of that, on lower timeframes (2hr), we seemed to have formed a double top.
This leads me to believe we're about to see another leg lower. If Rivn falls from here and loses the $37 support, I think it's likely that we'll see the low to mid 20 range. Supports on the chart.
After that, I can see RIVN bouncing, but eventually I think it could see the $8 range before reversing it's trend back to bullish.
Let's see how the next few weeks and months play out.
How long will it take Rivian to get back to its IPO price?Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ: RIVN), the budding electric vehicle maker, initially bank-rolled by the likes of Ford (NYSE: F) and Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN), is currently trading 80% lower than its peak since listing on the Nasdaq stock exchange.
Bear in mind that Rivian was listed on the Nasdaq in November 2021, when you had to be very unlucky not to make money in the stock market, especially as a company working in the electric vehicle domain. In a sign of the jubilant (and bygone?) era, within days of listing, investor exuberance had pushed RIVN up by 115%, to US $170 per share. RIVN’s market electricity has fizzled in the following five months and could do with a recharge.
The Rivian stock price is currently trading very close to an all-time low, at US $37.00, 80% lower than its all-time high. In contrast, Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA), a company which Rivian investors hope can be emulated, is trading 25% lower than its all-time high (US $1,200 vs US $900), which it reached in November 2021 (roughly the same time Rivian reached its all-time high).
RIV only just begun
As illustrated by its latest earnings call, Rivian has a momentous scope for growth.
In its Full Year 2021 earnings call, which was released on March 10, 2022, Rivian reported its first bout of revenue, a tiny US $55 million against a cost of revenue of US $520 million and other operating expenses (mainly R&D and administration) of US $3.7 billion. Consequently, Rivian reported a total net loss (inclusive of all costs) of US $4.7 billion for the full year.
The massive discrepancy between the company’s revenue and costs is a natural part of its growing pains. The automobile industry’s huge barrier to entry means that Rivian expects to be making a net loss for some time. However, it does expect to be profit-neutral by the end of the next financial year, and this might be what is more important for investors following the company.
No fast-charging solution
Rivian is still valued at over US $30 billion and far from a bust. However, it will perhaps take years for the company to charge its stock price back up to its IPO price of US $78.00. Even in the age of outsized valuations for EV companies and some residual investor exuberance in the market, investor confidence is butting up against obstacles such as the infamous chip-shortage affecting numerous car companies and tightening monetary policy from the US Federal Reserve.
To hasten the process and to overcome some of these obstacles on its way back to its IPO price, Rivian may have make better use of its US $18 billion cash reserve and carve out more than its planned 10% takeover of the EV market by 2030.
As it stands, Rivian’s total theoretical capacity at its two factories (600K) could garner 10% of the 2021 electric vehicle market. However, By 2030, electric vehicles sales are predicted to account for 1-in-2 vehicles sold, from a current 1-in-10. To account for 10% of all EVs sold in 2030, Rivian will have to boost production capacity to approximately 3 million vehicles per year.
For interest, Rivian generated its 2021 revenue of US $55 million on delivery of 2500 electric vehicles. The company’s guidance for 2022 expects to deliver 25K vehicles, which is a huge increase on its current production numbers, but fantastically far from the number of pre-orders on its books (83K) and unimaginably far from its 10% goal of 3 million.
Buy RIVN cheaper than George SorosBillionaire investor George Soros bought a $2 billion stake in electric truck startup Rivian in the quarter ended Dec. 31.
His average should be around $100.
RIVN 52 Week Range $37.50 - 179.47, today hitting all time low.
I see this as a potential buy opportunity.
My price target is $65.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.