Adios RIVNThe implosion of crypto markets impacts all other non-sensical trading and investment ideas. Not to say that some business models are faulty, but many are, shall we say, trading at rather inflated levels.
RIVN is a case in point. It found a lifeline in early October when 30.72 (RED) provided a nice bounce, but after today, we see that it is now a distant memory. Both 30.72 (RED) and 29.45 (ORANGE) were breached. Don't be a knife catcher.....that's not how you succeed in this business.
RIVN
RIVN - LONG SWING TRADE IDEARIVN could be a potential long trade for a few reasons:
First, it is forming a Buy Setup on the daily chart and it just put it a new higher low at an area of strong support
On entry, RIVN would be breaking out over three major daily moving averages (9 SMA (Purple), 21 SMA (Blue), 50 SMA (Yellow)) with room to correct to the 200 MA (Orange)
In support of the trade, RIVN has been stronger than the market during this recent move lower and it setting up to bounce with the market
Additionally, the 2:1 reward to risk is quite reasonable and could be exceeded if RIVN makes a strong move and breaks out of the double top at 41
A trailing stop loss is recommended as this is still a bear market and RIVN does have the double top as resistance. I would expect some price action around 37 as well due to retracement levels and previous areas of minor support/resistance
RIVN: A bullish structure? What to expect next?• RIVN dropped sharply in the last few days, however, it is trying to recover now;
• For the first time, since the last top (Sep 15), RIVN is doing higher highs/low;
• In addition, it seems we see an Ascending Triangle chart pattern;
• This is supposed to be a bullish reversal pattern, but this is not a rule. If it loses the purple trend line, it might drop to seek the previous bottom at $31.78;
• However, by doing an upwards breakout, it’ll trigger a reversal with a technical target at the previous top, at $40.78;
• Either way, RIVN looks interesting, but an upwards breakout will have more upside potential.
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Last Chance to Buy Rivian Before Major Bull RunThis is a daily chart of EV manufacturer Rivian Automotive ( RIVN ).
Price continues to consolidate as the moving averages converge.
On the right-hand side is the indicator called the Visible Range Volume Profile (VRVP). This indicator provides a vertical histogram of volume. The volume bars help identify the price ranges where most volume has occurred, which helps traders identify areas of support and resistance.
The indicator provides a red line to show the exact price level with the greatest trading volume and therefore the strongest point of support or resistance. When price comes down, as in the case of Rivian, and then forms a red line on the VRVP, it often becomes an important support level. An extremely bullish perspective might even go so far as to surmise that this area of support is the bottom for Rivian and that a major bull run is about to unfold with this red line as its support area.
From a Wyckoff analysis, one might conclude that accumulation is occurring. According to that analysis, price can retest the low right before the breakout phase.
Also, note Rivian's outperformance in the month of June. Even as inflation and commodities were soaring, major indices were gapping down, and the Fed was accelerating hiking rates, Rivian continued to consolidate, trading in a tight range and making higher lows (see below chart).
Rivian's outperformance of the broader index, after such a prolonged decline, is probably an early sign of a trend reversal and likely reflects that smart money is accumulating. A good chartist would know that inflation is cooling because commodities are now being resisted by the lines that once supported their upward trend. Necessarily, aggressive interest rate hike expectations will soon cool, too. The market is always forward-looking. By the time the Fed says that inflation is cooling and makes a pivot to being less aggressive, smart money will already be fully in the market.
Therefore, there is high confidence that Rivian may soon break out to the upside (probably in July). Don't let a temporary oscillation to the downside fool you. Nonetheless, as always, have your stop losses in place as the market can act irrationally longer than you can stay solvent. Never be unwilling to accept that you're wrong. Trading isn't about being right, it's about preserving and growing capital.
RIVN Descending Megaphone Pattern SHORTRIVN is in a slow down trending pattern right now within a megaphone
reflecting increasing volatility. The MACD shows the downward momentum
with more of the histogram negative below the zero level.
At present, the K / D lines are crossing over and above the histogram.
characteristic of a reversal to the downside.
Based on pivots in June and July, the horizontal support is at ~ $30.
Accordingly, a target on a short trade setup is just before $30.
This appears to be a good short trade setup where Rivian is
following the downtrend of the sector leader TSLA.
FORD Swing Trade after REVERSAL in JulyNYSE:F
F is trending up while TSLA heads down
US Legislation to support EV purchases with tax credits is helpful
GM's financial troubles are helpful.
Chart shows upgoing BB/EMA channels
and mid-range RSI with recent K/D crossover.
Both suggest a potential swing entry. Depend on unforeseen
changes in the automotive market or the market at large
and a recession versus continued uncertainty, F could
the uptrend for several months also made for the
opportunity to trade call options.
Trade often. Trade well !
$WKHS: interesting junctureI will list a series of facts, which make me think we can gamble a small amount of money on a long shot trade entry in $WKHS:
The new climate spending bill includes items that could benefit EV names, and there could be renewed interest in names that could end up landing the deal with the United States Postal Service to provide them with vans. www.bloomberg.com
cathiesark.com Cathie Woods sold. Bullish.
Long term mode retested, after the prior long term bullish trend signal peaked at the target as per my forecast published here ages ago, it has come all the way down and it's basing, could be a bottom in the making, as we had 13 months elapse since the expiration of the last monthly trend, which was at the end of June, weekly trend turned up since and monthly put on a strong candle, with a range expansion move signaling strength.
I'm long, small 1% position as a 'long shot' trade. Potential reward to risk is interesting, but worst I can lose is 1% if it goes to $0. (that's what I call a 'long shot')
Let's see how it goes, my other positions here are $TSLA, $F and a small bet in $RIVN as well.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
RIVIAN About to break its 3 month Channel upwardsBack in May we called for a short-term buy on Rivian (RIVN) but warned investors not to get overexcited:
This time however we find quite a few reasons to be excited as following the break above its Falling Wedge, the stock formed a Channel Up that is about to break upwards on today's strong rise. Within this Channel, the price also succeeded in breaking above both the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) and in fact a Bullish Cross between the two is emerging.
The 1W RSI has been steadily rising from its previous oversold state and is now above the 40.00 mark, so if the price breaks above the Channel Up, we expect RIVN to aim for the 56.90 March 30 High, which is the current Resistance. A break above that level, which happens to be on the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level form the market Top, would constitute a long-term trend shift to bullish.
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RIVN - Hourly Thoughts RIVN has broken out of a long downtrend for the first time (dashed line)
This break out in my opinion will be short lived and a retest above this line will occur
This retest will also result in a double bottom along a horizontal
Double curved line indicates my thoughts on price action
If a retest does not result, break out further will ensue
RIVN: Doing its first BULLISH STRUCTURE ever!Hello traders and investors! Let’s see how RIVN is doing today! For the first time, RIVN is doing a clear bullish structure, and this could indicate a reversal ahead.
In the daily chart, we see that for the first time ever, RIVN has a clear bullish structure, as it just did a higher high/low, and triggered a pivot point. In addition, it is trying to leave the 21 ema behind again (it tried to do that in the past, but with the lack of bullish structure, it failed miserably).
Keep in mind that this is the early stage of a reversal, and the situation is still risky. Another key point we must pay attention is the red line at $ 33.46. This point worked as a support and resistance in the past, and could work as a resistance again. In the end, RIVN must break this point to confirm a reversal, and not lose it again.
By breaking this line, RIVN could do a pullback to its 21 ema in the weekly chart, at least, near the $ 50 (the 21 ema is descending, so it’ll be lower in the next weeks, keep that in mind).
Either way, we have a lot of upside potential in the mid-term. This is not a long-term reversal yet, as the trend is clearly bearish on RIVN since its IPO in November.
I’ll keep you guys updated on this, so remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily analyses!
$SPY Analysis, Key Levels, & Targets… $SPY Analysis, Key Levels, & Targets…
I am definitely still bullish, y’all… The last three days I’ve played daily calls and won and that is not indicator of anything because you can play both sides most of the time… but I am bullish…
We’re at the bottom of the channel… Yes, lots of funds blew up last week, but then there’s a lot of people that have been mostly in cash since jan (ME) that are itching to play again (outside of just the daily day trade scalping)…
There’s a lot of deals out there right now and I think that we will see a little bit of green in the next week or so. I’m sure the bottom’s not in but money is shifting around and some names you won’t be able to see this low again….
What stocks are you guys thinking about possibly nibbling on??
I bought NIO and RIVN, TQQQ, and AMD this week… definitely looking for others that have taken a beating lately….
Good luck y’all and as always let me know what you think, and sorry if I’m slow to respond sometimes…
RIVIAN is short-term bullish but don't get overexcited.Rivian Automotive (RIVN) is (for the time being) on a green 1D candle, the first after 5 straight bearish days. Its 1D RSI has rebounded from its massively oversold levels, the same levels that previously caused price increases of roughly +42% and +69% (Jan 27 and March 14). The rebound on the first sequence hit the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level while the second hit the 0.618 Fib.
Right now those levels are at $38.22 and $42.63. However those aren't just above the Falling Wedge pattern that has directed the trend since mid-February, but also above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) which hasn't allowed any 1D candle closing above it and in fact had a strong rejection on March 30, which is the current Resistance and formed the last Lower High of the Falling Wedge.
As a result, we are setting lower targets on this expected short-term rebound. A new +69% rise puts our Target at $33.00, which is a level where the price may make contact with the 1D MA50. On the long-term, the trend remains bearish, especially within the Falling Wedge, unless the price breaks above the last Lower High and 56.90 Resistance, which is where the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) currently is.
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$RIVN Rivian Oversold - Lockup Expiry Sell-Off$RIVN Rivian Oversold - Lockup Expiry Sell-Off
This $20-$22 range looks like an attractive risk-reward scenario in my opinion. Insider/early investor lockup period expired earlier this week, driving the large sell volume yesterday. Big earnings call tomorrow reporting on a quarter where deliveries were ramping up - expecting a positive market reaction.
For comparison, Rivian's market cap now sits around $19B vs Tesla market cap over $800B. Obviously Tesla is years ahead of Rivian and has the sales and profit to back up a beefier valuation. But if Rivian grows to be even a quarter of the company Tesla is, long term there is major upside here in my opinion.
Near term price target: $32-$36 range by late May
Medium term price target: $50+ possible by mid June
Note: This is NOT investment advice. Opinion only.
RIVN: Deep Value PlayOkay, this one is a bit different than my normal charts. Rivian Automotive only started trading late November of last year so there's not enough historical data to draw from to give a complete picture. However, RIVN is a high-profile startup in a hot industry with motivated billionaires backing it. It wants to be TSLA, but you wouldn't know it based on the 50% price discount from its IPO. Despite it's gloomy performance--or perhaps *because* of it--it's actually looking like an attractive buy at these prices. It appears to be in my buy zone, and there's bullish divergence, but there's not enough data to show me where the momentum/pressure is. I think this is a great value play for a long-term investor.
Good Luck
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These are my personal views and not financial advice. Please do your own research before investing.
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RIVN: The technical point that will trigger a reversal!Hello traders and investors! Let’s see how RIVN is doing today!
For the first time since March 30, RIVN is trying to reverse the trend. This reaction is quite good, which is surprising, considering it is a Red Monday, and it is a sign of strength.
Technically speaking, this movement is very interesting. As RIVN just retested the $ 37.61 area as a support again, making it a possible Double Bottom, and it is trying to break the resistance at $ 41.
If RIVN closes above the $ 41 today, it might confirm this pattern. So far, all we see is lower highs/lows, indicating a strong bear trend. However, by defeating the $ 41, it’ll do something new, and this is a good sign of a reversal. We must not lose the $ 37.61, otherwise, RIVN will frustrate this delicate bullish structure.
In the daily chart, it seems RIVN just dropped to fill the gap at $ 37.32, and now it is reacting nicely. If it confirms the bullish structure in the 1h chart, the next resistance to work with is the $ 56.76. Above that point, we have an open gap at $ 60.80 that might help to attract the price to higher levels.
Let’s see how RIVN will close today, and if it’ll keep above the $ 41 area. To me, RIVN looks interesting, so I’ll keep you guys updated on this. Therefore, remember to follow me to not miss any of my future analyses!
RIVN you can still buy it cheaper than Soros If you haven`t bought the all time low here:
then you should know that you can still buy cheaper than George Soros.
Billionaire investor George Soros bought a $2 billion stake in electric truck startup Rivian in the quarter ended Dec. 31.
His average should be around $100.
My short term price target is 69.50.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.