Rivian $RIVN BullRivian please don't fail me this time. I have set another long on RIVN. My last Rivian long call was my most hated post. But the haters were right :( . This time the bears and haters will face serious retribution.
RIVN
$RIVN PUTS -Looking to play the continuation of this current trend
-Going to wait for a pullback monday before getting into puts
-will be looking for 30-40% on options
RIVN you can still buy it cheaper than Soros If you haven`t bought the all time low here:
then you should know that you can still buy cheaper than George Soros.
Billionaire investor George Soros bought a $2 billion stake in electric truck startup Rivian in the quarter ended Dec. 31.
His average should be around $100.
My short term price target is 69.50.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
Growth Capped by the 50 Day Moving Average These are 6 randomly selected growth stocks that have been hammered and just rejected off the 50 day moving average yesterday.
Watch for the downside trend to continue in these stocks until they're able to at least breach the 50dma.
The question is do these stocks make higher lows (if the downward trend continues) or lower lows?
IMO if you are a trend follower, you should avoid any stocks on the long side if they look like this (unless you're trying to day trade a bounce).
$RIVN wants lower. Low to mid-20s? Or even lower?If we look at the chart, $RIVN seems to be making lower highs and lower lows.
This recent move up was just a retest of resistance at $47. On top of that, on lower timeframes (2hr), we seemed to have formed a double top.
This leads me to believe we're about to see another leg lower. If Rivn falls from here and loses the $37 support, I think it's likely that we'll see the low to mid 20 range. Supports on the chart.
After that, I can see RIVN bouncing, but eventually I think it could see the $8 range before reversing it's trend back to bullish.
Let's see how the next few weeks and months play out.
How long will it take Rivian to get back to its IPO price?Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ: RIVN), the budding electric vehicle maker, initially bank-rolled by the likes of Ford (NYSE: F) and Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN), is currently trading 80% lower than its peak since listing on the Nasdaq stock exchange.
Bear in mind that Rivian was listed on the Nasdaq in November 2021, when you had to be very unlucky not to make money in the stock market, especially as a company working in the electric vehicle domain. In a sign of the jubilant (and bygone?) era, within days of listing, investor exuberance had pushed RIVN up by 115%, to US $170 per share. RIVN’s market electricity has fizzled in the following five months and could do with a recharge.
The Rivian stock price is currently trading very close to an all-time low, at US $37.00, 80% lower than its all-time high. In contrast, Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA), a company which Rivian investors hope can be emulated, is trading 25% lower than its all-time high (US $1,200 vs US $900), which it reached in November 2021 (roughly the same time Rivian reached its all-time high).
RIV only just begun
As illustrated by its latest earnings call, Rivian has a momentous scope for growth.
In its Full Year 2021 earnings call, which was released on March 10, 2022, Rivian reported its first bout of revenue, a tiny US $55 million against a cost of revenue of US $520 million and other operating expenses (mainly R&D and administration) of US $3.7 billion. Consequently, Rivian reported a total net loss (inclusive of all costs) of US $4.7 billion for the full year.
The massive discrepancy between the company’s revenue and costs is a natural part of its growing pains. The automobile industry’s huge barrier to entry means that Rivian expects to be making a net loss for some time. However, it does expect to be profit-neutral by the end of the next financial year, and this might be what is more important for investors following the company.
No fast-charging solution
Rivian is still valued at over US $30 billion and far from a bust. However, it will perhaps take years for the company to charge its stock price back up to its IPO price of US $78.00. Even in the age of outsized valuations for EV companies and some residual investor exuberance in the market, investor confidence is butting up against obstacles such as the infamous chip-shortage affecting numerous car companies and tightening monetary policy from the US Federal Reserve.
To hasten the process and to overcome some of these obstacles on its way back to its IPO price, Rivian may have make better use of its US $18 billion cash reserve and carve out more than its planned 10% takeover of the EV market by 2030.
As it stands, Rivian’s total theoretical capacity at its two factories (600K) could garner 10% of the 2021 electric vehicle market. However, By 2030, electric vehicles sales are predicted to account for 1-in-2 vehicles sold, from a current 1-in-10. To account for 10% of all EVs sold in 2030, Rivian will have to boost production capacity to approximately 3 million vehicles per year.
For interest, Rivian generated its 2021 revenue of US $55 million on delivery of 2500 electric vehicles. The company’s guidance for 2022 expects to deliver 25K vehicles, which is a huge increase on its current production numbers, but fantastically far from the number of pre-orders on its books (83K) and unimaginably far from its 10% goal of 3 million.
Buy RIVN cheaper than George SorosBillionaire investor George Soros bought a $2 billion stake in electric truck startup Rivian in the quarter ended Dec. 31.
His average should be around $100.
RIVN 52 Week Range $37.50 - 179.47, today hitting all time low.
I see this as a potential buy opportunity.
My price target is $65.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
Rivian All Time LowRivian NASDAQ:RIVN is at an all time low right before earnings. "I want to own some of this company" is my general thesis as they build out their infrastructure sans sales. We'll see if this contrarian buy of shares pays off...
Quantitative Models or Analysts Ratings???In these charts, you can see the performance of Tesla, Lucid, NIO, and Rivian in 2022, which is -22%, -36%, -43%, and -59% respectively..!
In the below analysis I added the Technical rating and Analysts ratings from the overview page of these tickers:
My observations:
1- Technical rating show "Sell" for all 4 tickers!
2- Analyst ratings show Strong buy for NIO, buy for Tesla & Rivian, and Neutral for Lucid.
It seems this new feature "Analyst Rating" completely indicates the opposite direction..!?!?
Questions:
1-Who is/are the analyst(s)?
2-Why their opinion is so different from numbers and indicators/Oscillators?
3- What are the metrics these analysts use???
4- How should users interpret these contradictory ratings?
5- Do contradictory make trading easier???
As a user who use this platform for more than a decade, I think this is not good to add non-quantitative ratings to a platform that should move toward quantifiable trading/investing models..!
Why?
Because in the past decade Quantitative funds beat the performance of the market, hedge funds, and asset managers..!
Conclusions:
1- Indicator ratings are closer to the reality of the performance of the underlying assets because they are not emotional..!
2- Analyst ratings is far far far away from markets reality
Best,
Dr. Moshkelgosha M.D
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
How far Rivian Could go ???(2)On December 9th, 2021 when RIVN was 116.5 I put the target on 60-40 in the next couple of months..!
11 days after that I recommended shorting RIVN would be the best among TSLA, LCID, and RIVN..!
Today RIVN touched 39.86..!
But I think it will go lower after the earning because it did not sell anything..!
Why?
Because it did not produce anything to sell..!
I think it will experience single-digit prices in 2022..!
For short opportunity let first people cover the previous shorts in March..!
Best,
Dr. Moshkelgosha M.D
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
How Low Rivian could go???I think the RIVN chart pattern is very similar to HOOD and it could follow the very ae pattern and experience a sharp constant drop to 60-40 in a Bearish case..!
You may think you have bought the next Tesla but Rivian can not be the next Tesla..!
You can see the most important support (green lines) and resistance (red lines) to watch in the coming days in these charts!
Best,
Moshkelgosha
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
New Target for RIVNWhen I compared Rivian with Hood 43 days ago it was 115, I set my target for 60 and now with the current momentum, I think there is potential to go to 30-40 or even lower!
Best,
Moshkelgosha
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
RIVN - bad price makes worse price
gave a false sense of breakout, and roller over quickly on a bad news. broke down the bearish pennant...almost back to the ATL.
if it can't hold 50, will keep sliding
RIVN turding out on downtrend lineAlso could have a bit of bear flag formation here - but looks like it is getting ready for the next leg down to me, especially if this gravestone doji looks as it does. maybe down 40 in the coming weeks?
MULN most undervalued EV producer ???Mullen Automotive went public on Nov. 5, 2021
MULN, Mullen Automotive, is an emerging electric vehicle manufacturer that was recognized by HotCars to be a gamechanger in the EV market. Mullen FIVE was ranked #2 among the publication’s annual “10 EV Startups to Watch Out For” in 2022.
On track to deliver the first EV cargo van fleet vehicles in Q2.
Mullen FIVE High-performance versions to arrive in late summer 2022.
Owns Tunica’s AMEC manufacturing facility with no associated debt or financial obligations .
Mullen FIVE won the best Zero Emission Vehicle SUV Award at the 2021 Los Angeles International Auto Show beating Lincoln and Rivian.
Mullen FIVE Scores Well Against Tesla Model Y and Ford Mach-E in Consumer EV Study.
120 patents in 24 countries.
I the chart i see increasing volume and a strong potential bounce from the oversold level!
Market cap of only $24 Million
I consider this a premium call with high upside potential for this year!
Human vs MachinesChart patterns detection needs an extensive learning process and experience, no matter if you are a human or a machine!
Machine Learning Workflow:
There are five core tasks in the common ML workflow:
1. Get Data
2. Clean, Prepare & Manipulate Data
3. Train Model
4. Test Model
5. Improve
Since the chart patterns, beta version indicator has been released, I started working with it to find out how it works.
In the following examples, you will see the comparison between my pattern (left side) and platform pattern (right side)!
I activate the triangle, pennant, and wedge pattern indicator..!
1- Daily chart: machines did not detect anything:
2- 4 hours chart: machines did not detect anything:
3- 4 hour charts: I changed the regular time to extended hours!
Finally, the machine detects something..!
Educational point:
There are hundreds of thousands of indicators and oscillators out there, some work, some don't!
The question is:
Are you able to use them correctly and increase their performance???
Think about it..!
Best,
Moshkelgosha
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
Rivian Stock RIVN Strength SignalsRivian stock RIVN has rallied 5.87% Wednesday to close at $64.53. The stock has shown some strength recently aiming for the downward trend’s reversal after confirming the formation of both; higher low, and a bottoming reversal pattern.
The stock RIVN could extend its rally hitting 23.60% Fibonacci retracement level that corresponds to the reversal pattern’s minimum target at $80.60 point on the short term.
How many years need to recover???Do you think these stocks will b able to get back to their all-time high once again?
While Inflation getting high and soon we will see rate hikes and they are burning cash instead of generating ???
According to the current data, they are not profitable and will not be in the next 3 years. Moreover, RIVN has less than a 1-year cash runway..!
This means sooner or later RIVN shareholders will be diluted..!
They both experience a -58 and -54% drop after the last time I compare them..!
I would like to finish with Charlie Munger's quote:
“Capitalism without failure is like religion without hell.”
Best,
Moshkelgosha
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
The similaries between bubbles!On the right side, you see Workhorse and Arrival, two EV makers (with commercial purposes) that lost 92-93% of their value in the past trading year!
On the left side, you see Rivian which lost 71% of its value in the past 70 days..!
I think there is a high chance Rivian go down to 15(-90% from its top) in a year or so..! current price is 60 which means you may lose 75% of your investment in less than a year!
A bubble is an economic cycle that is characterized by the rapid escalation of market value, particularly in the price of assets.
This fast inflation is followed by a quick decrease in value or a contraction, which is sometimes referred to as a "crash" or a "bubble burst."
Bubbles are typically attributed to a change in investor behavior, although what causes this change in behavior is debated. (Investopedia)
www.investopedia.com
If you want more examples: SOLO, GOEV, NKLA, and RIDE..!
Best,
Moshkelgosha
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
How to know BULLISH or BEARISH next day to CALL or not?I tried trading on some tickers with my logic to determine the Stock Direction BULLISH or BEAR.
I looked at timeframe 2H and 4H (mainly 4H), logic:
1. Determine 4H Price > SMA20 then next day is BULLISH, should be CALL (conjunction EMA20 cross up EMA50 then strong market to CALL)
2. Determine 4H Price < SMA20 then BEARISH, don't CALL, should follow before PUT
I have been monitoring for 2 weeks and this logic satisfies about 80%.
Tesla, Lucid, and Rivian after one month..!On December 20, 2021, I published one article and discussed shorting Rivian could be the most profitable in comparison to shorting Tesla or Lucid..!
As you can see in the one month, RIVN is -26.49%..! While Tesla is up 8.74 and Lucid is up 1.6%.
I always said there are opportunities in any market if you are keen to find them, your trading mindset should be neutral..!
When your willingness to go long or short is equal, then your trading rules plays their role..!
Learn how to compare assets and find the best opportunities!
Taking the most favorable ones increase your chance of success..!
Best,
Moshkelgosha
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
