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Robert_papon

Analysis and forecasts for EUR / USDToday's session has not led to break permanently recent highs and as a result there has been to determine the further direction. However, looking from the perspective of technical analysis chart of the interval 1D, we can see that the RSI shows negative divergence, which may be a signal reversal. If this state of affairs will continue also during tomorrow's session, we can assume the thesis that the level of 1.1465 was a peak from which started the correction. Considering the amount of data during Wednesday's session, we can not exclude further (perhaps impulsive) increases towards 1,1465-95. Anyway resistance zone, which indicated should defend, which in the long term, it may start a correction. In this case, the supply side once again directs toward support at 1,1325-43. When it comes to the break we get a clear signal that the Eurodollar a correction phase.
Short
by RobertPapon
Analysis and forecasts for EUR / USD 24/02/16In the last few hours we have witnessed a test of support at 1.10, but the supply side has not led to its break. Currency pair found support at 1.0990. In the next few hours, it is possible to again attack the supply side and on the results of the test 1.10 level will determine the future direction of trading Eurodollar. From a technical point of view, demand should strongly defend the fundamental support but the situation is not conducive to this. Thus breaking the 1.10 level opens the way towards the 1.0945 level. In contrast, the target ranges for the above scenario, I would look around the 1.08 level. Alternative version of the defense implies support and then removing attacking towards Tuesday's high of 1.1052. Further demand should move towards resistance levels are located at 1.1090 and 1,1066-1,1071.
by RobertPapon
Analysis and forecasts for EUR / USD 23/02/16Declines have occurred during Monday's session, they stopped in the important area of support levels extending between 1,10-1,1045. Currency pair at the moment is close to the 1.10 level. As you can see in the chart below fracture / in support may lead to declines in the vicinity of 1.0945 and 1.08. Therefore, I expect in the near future activation of demand-side and exit-attacking towards resistance at 1.1090 and 1,1066-1,1071. Support for demand may be Tuesday's data, which may become an impulse for a stronger movement. In any case, keep in mind that if Tuesday's readings will support the dollar, the supply will receive strong impetus for further declines towards 1.08. As a result, the growth scenario will be negated.
by RobertPapon
Analysis and Forecast EUR / USD - Weekly review (22.02-26.02)The outlook for EUR / USD: Declines have occurred in the last week, we can be treated as a correction to the earlier increases. Currency pair found support at the levels of 1.1066 and 1.1071, which from a technical point of view we can consider the formation of a double bottom. Considering the reaction of the demand side during Thursday's and Friday's session, I will risk saying that the Eurodollar will try to work towards recent highs. If my suspicions are correct, this demand should eventually break the key resistance at 1.1160 and head towards 1.1246 level. If this resistance and will be defeated, the demand side will face a chance to return to the last peak (1.1376). Alternative version of a return to the recent lows and then after their defeat, Eurodollar will head towards support at 1,10-1,1045
by RobertPapon
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Analysis and forecasts for EUR / USD 02/18/16The technical situation on the main currency pair almost does not change. According to what I wrote in my last comments, the baseline scenario still remains a variant of growth. This in turn means that the demand must defend support at 1.1090 and lead to increases in the direction of the resistance levels of 1.1160 and 1.1246. In the longer term I expect gains towards the next resistance level at 1.1376. Otherwise, if the supply will lead to a decline below support level 1.1090, Eurodollar can put toward lower price levels, extending in between 1,10-1,1045.
by RobertPapon
Analysis and forecasts for EUR / USD 17/02/16On Wednesday, investors' attention is focused on the information that come from the United States. With great anticipation, investors will await the notes from the minutes of the FOMC, which may provide new clues about further increases in interest rates. Previously, however, we will see inflation and PPI data for permits to build houses. Further, investors will focus on industrial production. The situation on the currency pair has not changed from that presented in the weekly report. After establishing a short-term peak at 1.1376, Eurodollar moves within the correction of recent increases. In my opinion, the supply side should not overcome the support level 1.1090, which should enable the demand side and lead to further growth. In this case, the demand will have to face the resistance level 1.1160, which will open the way to overcome, at least in the vicinity of the level of 1.1246. In the longer term expect increases in the vicinity of the last summit at the level of 1.1376. Otherwise, if the supply will lead to a decline below support level 1.1090, Eurodollar can put toward lower price levels, extending in between 1,10-1,1045.
by RobertPapon
Analysis and Forecast EUR / USD - Weekly review (15.02-19.02)Eurodollar after the recent rally and the establishment of a short-term peak at 1.1376 grabbed a little breathing. Correction, in which the EUR / USD should not in my opinion exceed the support level 1.1160 (minimum of 10 of February). (Previously, however, the demand will defend levels at 1.1246 and 1.1215). In the longer term, I expect growth toward the recent highs and in case of defeat, will open the way towards 1.1495 level, which in my opinion is at the moment a target for the demand side. Then, after the test this level, we expect a correction. At the moment, for me it is the baseline scenario. In an alternate version of the adjustment will be deepened and the supply will arrive in the vicinity of the next support level of 1,090. Then I would expect growth to higher price levels. RSI is currently neutral inheritance.
by RobertPapon
2
Analysis and forecasts for EUR / USD 11/02/16The outlook for EUR / USD: The strength of the demand side at the moment is indisputable that in the near future should result in further increases, interspersed with larger or smaller adjustments. Demand side should aim to break the recent high of 1.1337, which will open the way towards the next resistance 1,1371-1,1392. In the longer term expected growth in the level around 1.1495. In the vicinity of the last level, we could start a correction. Alternative scenario assumes the defense of the level of 1.1337, which in turn will lead to a decline towards 1.1246 or even 1.1160.
by RobertPapon
Analysis and forecasts for EUR / USD 10/02/16Eurodollar quite quickly managed to handle the correction of recent increases that have taken place over the last week and on Tuesday the demand side led to a break the next level 1.1246 and 1,1280-1,1310. Maximum recorded at the level of 1.1338. Last such price levels we saw in October last year. Most investors remain skeptical about further action by the ECB and the FED, which allows you to direct the common currency further maxima. On Wednesday, investors' attention will be directed to the speech by Janet Yellen, who will present a semi-annual report on monetary policy before the Committee. Financial Services House of Representatives. The head of the Fed certainly will defend the recent decision of the Federal Reserve, but its opinion on further rate hikes may be firmly balanced and toned. Taking into account the recent macroeconomic readings, it does not seem that the prospect of further interest rate hikes were not threatened. However, in my opinion, the head of the Fed will leave a "door open" for further action, the next revision of economic data. The outlook for EUR / USD: Dollar at the moment is in the back and nothing indicates that in the short term, upward trend for eurodolarze could be reversed. (Chances supply side could be found only in speech Janet Yellen). Accordingly, after a short correction, which should not exceed a level of 1.1246, the demand should be directed towards the level of 1.1337. Then, after the break, it will open the way towards the next resistance 1,1371-1,1392. In the longer term expected growth in the level around 1.1495. Alternate version assumes the start of the correction after the Janet Yellen. Supply will have a chance break 1.1246 level and directed towards lower price levels.
by RobertPapon
Analysis and Forecast EUR / USD - Weekly review (08.02-12.02)The outlook for EUR / USD: On Friday, after a strong rally that took place throughout the week, there was profit-taking. Currently, Eurodollar located around 23.6% of the abolition of the past, and increases in my opinion, the adjustment should be deepened. In the coming hours, the supply should take the initiative and lead to declines in the level around 1.1081. In the case of his defeat, the next objective will be 1,10-1,1030 zone aids (50% removal and peaks of 9-15 December). In the longer term I expect further gains towards 1.1246 and 1,1280-1,1310. Ultimately, demand should aim to test the level of 1.1495. It is worth mentioning that the last of the levels is crucial for further direction in the medium term.
by RobertPapon
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Analysis and forecasts for EUR / USD 02/05/16Before us the last session of the week, which is rich in very important readings from the US labor market. On Friday, we will among other things, a change in employment in non-agricultural sectors and the unemployment rate. Analyzing the currency pair from the purely technical, we can conclude that after the recent rally, we should see a correction. Surely we can agree that the instant the potential for further growth is low, due to the proximity of resistance and strong buying. However, it should be noted that the upward trend is quite strong, while another weaker data from the US economy, may become another impetus for further growth. Therefore, we can assume two scenarios. The first assumes that the data from the US, will be much lower than expected, which will support the euro. In this case, the last summit at the level of 1.1240 should be exceeded, and the demand side, perhaps, will move towards the resistance zone of 1,1280-1,1310. Then Eurodollar will be ready for a correction. In the longer term we should move towards the level of 1.1495. The second variant envisages much better readings from the US (which is rather unlikely) that will support the dollar. In this case, the supply side is correct, recent increases. The objectives of the supply should be the levels 1.1143 (23.6% fibo) and 1.1085 (38.2% fibo). In the longer term I expect further gains towards 1.1240 and 1,1280-1,1310. Ultimately, demand should aim to test the level of 1.1495.
by RobertPapon
Analysis and forecasts for EUR / USD 02/03/16The outlook for EUR / USD: The currency pair is currently in a rather interesting place, just below the upper limit of consolidation (1.0945 level). Demand side stands a fair chance of fracture resistance and lead to increases in the vicinity of 1,0970-90. Further towards 1,1025-50. However, if there is no attempt to break away from the trend and demand side can not beat the 1.0945 level, the supply side should take the initiative (to break the 1.09 level) and push the exchange rate, even in the vicinity of 1,08-1,0810 level. That's all I can currently write about the main currency pair.
by RobertPapon
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Analysis and forecasts for EUR / USD 02/02/16The outlook for EUR / USD: Eurodollar constantly moving in a tight trading range that has lasted a good few weeks. On Monday, despite increases in the level around 1.09, we have not received any signals that may indicate clearly on the future direction in the medium term. Therefore, I repeat, what I said earlier. If you happen to break the resistance level at 1.0945, it will open the way to higher price levels. First, the demand will be forced to deal with resistance area at 1.0970-90. Otherwise, supply, beating 1,08-1,0810 level support, should lead to declines in around 1.0715. Looking at the charts with larger intervals, we can conclude that it is close to breaking point. If Tuesday not manage to overcome the 1.09 level and demand will not lead to increases towards 1.0945, the supply should take the lead and push the exchange rate towards support at 1.08.
by RobertPapon
1
Analysis and Forecast EUR / USD - Weekly overview (01.02-05.02)The analysis for EUR / USD pair on Monday: Last week, once again, there is an attempt to break the level 1.0945. Demand side managed to only test the strong resistance zone 1,0970-90 from which rebounded quite dynamically. Still stuck trading sideways between 1.0945 1,08- (unsuccessful wybiciami in the vicinity of 1,0970-90). Nearby hours should bring correction of recent declines attempt (around 1,0845-75). Then you can return towards 1.08 or even 1.0778 area. Since defense of these support levels will depend discussed the future direction of the currency pair. Assuming that the supply side will lead to a break in / at levels Eurodollar should direct towards lower price levels. I refer to 1,0710-15 level (lows from early January). At this level, it would be possible rebound inheritance and derivation of a larger correction. If demand defense is an important support at 1.08, it will be possible to return to the vicinity of 1.09, the fracture will lead to growth toward 1.0945 and higher. In my opinion, a variant of correction of recent increases and another test of 1.08 is the preferred option. In this case, it may lead to further declines.
by RobertPapon
Analysis and forecasts for EUR / USD 01/28/16The outlook for EUR / USD: On Wednesday, there was an attempt to breach the resistance at 1.09 but without success. At the moment there has been a breaking of the downward channel, but it could be another false breakout. Therefore, we should consider the analysis of two ways. If you believe that the breakout is actually in the coming hours, the course should turn around in the vicinity of the upper limit of the channel (1.0845) and the demand side will head back toward the 1.09 level and 1.0945. (There is a possibility that further increases will occur from the current price level, towards the level of 1.0945). Please note that we are still in sideways and just beat the 1.0945 level, will indicate the direction in the medium term. Alternative Version assumes that Wednesday's killing was a trap, and once again the supply side will lead to a return to the interior of the channel. In this case, the aim seems to be a level of 1.08 in case of his defeat support at 1.0778.
by RobertPapon
Analysis and forecasts for EUR / USD 01/27/16Before us the most important figure of this week due to a Fed meeting. Along with the writings of the meeting, the Federal Reserve will release its decision on interest rates. Members of the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged and certainly will refer to external factors that may affect the pace of raising interest rates in the future. Whereas falling oil prices and the situation in China, it seems probable that the Fed members will reject the fast pace of interest rate increases. After the recent market turmoil, analysts assume the next hike until June. The outlook for EUR / USD: The technical situation on the main currency pair remained virtually unchanged. Eurodollar has long been moving sideways, waiting for a signal for further direction. According to me the signal to stronger traffic can be records of the meeting of the Fed. If there is a break through 1.0945 level demand will have an open path to higher price levels. In this case are possible increases in the vicinity 1,0980-90 or even 1,1025-50. In the second case, if the supply will lead to break support at 1.08 and 1.0778 supply should head for the support 1,0680-1,0715. At this level, it will be possible rebound declines. In my opinion, the downward variant is more likely.
by RobertPapon
Analysis and Forecast EUR / USD - Weekly overview (25.01-29.01)Analysis EUR / USD: In recent days last week, the supply has led to declines, setting new minimum. Currently, the course is located around support at 1.08. This means that once again returned to the channel of the drop. Nearby hours should lead to a correction of the recent declines, towards level 1.0840 (the upper limit of the channel). Bearing in mind the words of Mario Draghi and possible future action by the ECB, the option of further declines seem to be more likely. This means that after the correction awaits us next test support at 1.08, which may fall out positively for supply. In this case, it will open the way toward lower price levels. The aim is for the supply of aids zone between 1,0680-1,0715. At this level, it will be possible rebound declines. Otherwise, if the start of the week will bring gains over 1.0840 then the demand will be driven toward the 1.09 level. Considering the Eurodollar from the purely technical, we can conclude that we are in a sideways direction and further decides to break the support at 1.08 and resistance level at 1.0945. In my opinion, a variant of the defeat of support at 1.08 seems more likely
by RobertPapon
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Analysis and Forecast EUR / USD - Weekly overview (18.01-22.01)Defence support at 1.09 leads to an increase in resistance towards 1.0945 and 1.0987. 1.09 If the support is broken, the supply will lead to declines in around 1.0847 and 1,08-1,0810 In summary analysis should remember that regardless of the data that will be announced early in the week, the effect of supply and demand may be limited because of the anticipation related to Thursday's conference of the President of the ECB. In my opinion, the occurrence of Mario Draghi, can cause strong movements in the currency pair and this should be taken into account in their investment strategy.
by RobertPapon
2
Analysis and forecasts for EUR / USD 15/01/16During the Thursday session, we witnessed the failed attack on the resistance level of 1.0945. The supply side decisively taken the lead and consequently led to return inside the channel succession. Minimum fell below Thursday's opening at 1.0834. Ahead of us the last session of the week, which may give an answer as to the further direction of EURUSD in the medium term. The economic calendar is full of many interesting reading but the most important of which will flow from the US. The market will be live data on retail sales and core retail sales. Especially important for investors will read the producer price index (PPI), which acts as prognostic and may signal subsequent changes in readings of consumer inflation (CPI). The outlook for EUR / USD: The situation on the currency pair once again has not changed, despite the defense support of 1.08 and another unsuccessful attempt to break the 1.0945 level. The market certainly waits for a pulse and for me the signal may be afternoon data from the US. Therefore, I do not think there may be a decision before 14:30. At the moment we are in sideways, limited support for 1,08-1,0810 and resistance at 1.0945. If my assumptions are correct, we should be prepared for stronger moves after data from the US. As discussed in previous reports, breaking the 1.0945 level (peaks 7 and 11 January), will open the way toward 1.0971 and 1,0980-90. In turn, defeat-level support 1,08-1,0810, will direct toward lower price levels. The aim in this case, be a zone aids at levels 1,0680-1,0715.
by RobertPapon
Analysis and forecasts for EUR / USD 14/01/16Wednesday's session took place under the dictation of the demand side, which in the first part of the day we defend support at 1,08-1,0810. Then, as expected, demand led the counterattack towards the upper limit of the downward channel. Maximum recorded at the level of 1.0883. Thursday is another day where we do not have too many macro data. In the afternoon it will be presented the minutes of the meetings of the ECB and the price indices of import and export from the United States. In contrast, the US Department of Labor will present data on the pre-declared unemployed. The outlook for EUR / USD: The situation in the eurodolarze slowly begins to clarify and according to my previous assumptions, demand took the initiative after the defense support at 1,08-1,0810. Accordingly, in the next few hours, the upward movement should continue. The aim for the demand side should be the level of 1.09 (upper limit of the channel) and the rest of his defeat. Another natural resistance level will be 1.0945 (peaks 7 and 11 January), whose defeat will open the way toward 1.0971 and 1,0980-90. Nearby hours should verify the strength of the demand side and in my opinion, we should not go below 1.0847 (Monday minimum). In an alternative version supply may lead to a return to Wednesday's lows (support 1,08-1,0810), but at the moment, it is not for me option under consideration.
Long
by RobertPapon