Robinhood Dives Into Election Betting, Its Ambition Might be BigRobinhood has just launched election contracts, allowing users to trade on the outcome of the 2024 U.S. presidential election between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.
The new contracts rolled out to a limited number of customers on October 28. Customers enable margin and options trading and need to be approved for a Robinhood Derivatives account.
With contracts set at $1.00 for correct predictions and $0.00 for incorrect, the payouts will be determined post-election certification in early 2025.
Contracts are available only for Yes positions, except that a No position can be placed to close out an existing Yes position. Customers may not simultaneously hold a Yes position for both candidates.
This launch follows recent regulatory developments, such as the D.C. Circuit's approval for Kalshi and Interactive Brokers to offer similar contracts.
While the CFTC voiced concerns about election integrity, the court permitted Kalshi to move forward, opening the door for Robinhood.
I don’t think Robinhood cares much about making money off Election contracts a week before the election — I think they are going for something much, much bigger…which is a marketplace to bet on anything, marking a potential shift beyond traditional stock and crypto markets.
In my view, this signals a strategic pivot for Robinhood toward a broader, all-encompassing platform where users may eventually wager on global events, similar to derivative markets.
Paired with recent rollouts like index options, futures, and a new trading platform, Robinhood’s rapid innovation rate is noteworthy.
Their agility demonstrates a keen ability to stay relevant in an evolving financial landscape, and if successful, this could redefine event-based trading.
Will this direction lead to a major expansion beyond traditional asset classes? Robinhood’s progress here will be intriguing to watch.
Robinhood is showing some impressive innovation here, and if this new product performs well, it could really boost the company’s diversification.
But back to the stock itself—after a 126% jump year-to-date, is now still a good time to buy?
Technically, In the long term, the current stock price is in an upward trend, but in the short term, the price has reached the upper edge of the bullish channel, making it susceptible to be rejected for a pullback. Furthermore, compared to the previous increases, the recent uptrend momentum has significantly weakened, further confirming the high risk of a short-term pullback.
Moreover, according to historical patterns, before each pullback in this uptrend, there tends to be a KDJ bearish divergence. The reemergence of this divergence currently suggests inadequate upward momentum, indicating that a short-term pullback in prices may occur at any time.
Therefore, although the Robinhood's presidential election contracts is highly favorable, from a rational perspective, it is advisable to entry after a short-term pullback.
