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EURUSD - Day trade by Kelter channel 16 DEC 2020* Signals are tested successfully for 3.5 years with a steady win rate year on year until now. Risk: 1%. * Backtest time: 3.5 years / Premium, varies between currency pairs (Cryto default backtest time is shorter since the market is open both Saturday and Sunday: about 2 years). The price rule of EURUSD in 20,000 past H1 candles past: - Upterm (Long): Buy + When the price crossing up (Crossover) the Upper line gives 1 point. - Downterm (Short): Sell + When the price crossing down (Crossunder) the Lower line gives 1 point. - 2 or more points (> = 2), the entry conditions are met - The entry point for the highest winning rate: when the price adjusts to the Upper / Lower line, the order price is at the closing price of the adjustment candle. - When the above conditions are met, the Indicator shows a Buy / Sell signal according to the trend. ----------------------------------- - Maximum risk / reward winning ratio: 1 / 1.05 - Stoploss: Calculated from the entry point + - actual fluctuation with the formula ATR (20) * risk ratio (risk). - Profit: Calculated from the entry point + - actual fluctuation by the formula ATR (20) * reward ratio (reward). - Profit: So the product has a stable profit of over 30% / year. - Should backtest 3 Years (long term), every Year (medium term) and quarterly or 6 months (short term). If each year the success rate is always over 50%, it can be used for real trade.
Short
by dinhchien
AUDCAD - Day trade signal by Keltner 16 DEC 2020* The signal are tested in 3,5 years. Winrate stability over 52% every year. Risk: 1%. * Tradingview's backtest time ~ 3.5 years/Premium account, differs between currency pairs (Cryto is the default backtest time is shorter because the market is open both Saturday and Sunday: about 2 years) - Base on order: 2 ways to enter or combine both. Method 1 + Keltner channel: the price closed above or below Upper / Lower Keltner for signal 1. Wait for the price to adjust to the Basis line, then enter the order. Method 2 + Keltner channel: price closes above or below Upper 2 / Lower 2 Keltner gives signal 1. Wait for the price to adjust to Upper / Lower line, then enter the order. Method 3: combine both, priority 1 if satisfied conditions + Pivot option: appear rising signal: Higher High / Higher Low. Decline signal: Lower Low / Lower High for signal 2. - When the above conditions are met, the Indicator shows a Buy / Sell signal according to the trend. ----------------------------------- - Stoploss: Calculated from the entry point + - actual fluctuation by the formula ATR (20) * risk ratio (risk). - Profit: Calculated from the entry point of the command + - actual oscillation using ATR formula (20) * reward ratio (reward). - Profit: Look the Summary below. - Should be backtest 3 Years (long term), each Year (medium term) and Quarter or 6 months (short term). If each year the success rate is always more than 50%, can be used for actual trading
Short
by dinhchien
A filtered MACD strategy on the 1 hour chartA 1 hour chart strategy. Presented to you. When: - The price is above the 4 hours 100-EMA - The MACD & Signal(5) lines are below zero - The MACD (blue) crosses above the Signal (red) line We buy When: - The price is below the 4 hours 100-EMA - The MACD & Signal(5) lines are above zero - The MACD (blue) crosses below the Signal (red) line We sell To keep in mind: Specific to EURUSD (but it's almost the same thing with most major pairs that all have the same average true ranges): Stops are supposed to range from 15 to 40 points, with targets 30 to 80. The daily ATR ranging from 50 to 150 points. Anything below 30 pts target is starting to be too small and above 80 points it is too big we're not thinking intraday here. A quick backtest on EURUSD And that's already 21 trades for the EURUSD with a winrate of 52.4%, plus the title 5 setups that were a bit cherry picked I won't lie. I didn't even cherry pick them I got lucky on my first try (I thought I was continuing my backtest in July 2017 didn't realize it was on 2020) but I wouldn't expect an 80% winrate in general. EURUSD: 11 Wins. 10 Loss. 1:2 risk to reward. 52.4% winrate. Next is GBPUSD And here is another batch of 21 which is a good sample size. GBPUSD: 12 Wins. 9 Loss. 1:2 risk to reward. 57.1% winrate. It is important to zoom out (I know no one does it). A look at the daily chart. Just going to check quickly because it is getting boring. Should have taken the 5 minutes to make a script to filter this but I'm in too deep to go back now. And I just noticed I have been backtesting GBPUSD with the 200 EMA. Well nevermind, it is the same thing. Result wouldn't change much. And here I made the whole box. 12 Wins 19 Loss. Still a winrate of 38.7%. I can go for worse ones How about the recent EURUSD price action? 37.5% winrate If you think it gets immediatly better, here are the next ones: The findings: - When the conditions are good it won 55% of the time - When the conditions are average it won 38% of the time - When the conditions are bad (range plenty of false trends) it won 10% of the time With a RR of 2 the breakeven winrate is 33.33% But we have to include spreads. This strategy goes a bit further than "day trading" so stops and targets are quite wide. The typical stop/target is something like 25/50 (for EURUSD), the spread is 1 point. Other pairs of course are a bit more expensive. 50/25 = 2 49/26 = 1.88 breakeven winrate = 34.72% (10+38+55)/3 = 34.33% 🤔 ... Interesting coincidence... If the risk reward on average is of 1.88 and the winrate is 38% then the profit factor is 38*1.88/62 = 1.15 which is not very high but if the strategy takes a whole lot of small trades it is ok. The few cases I looked at prove nothing, this might have a blind winrate of 50%, 20%, or 33.33% (most likely). I don't know how to backtest with tools maybe I should learn so I can clic and let it execute for me... Stay tuned for a tutorial! :D You would have to execute this strategy when you think the price will trend. But not a very strong trend or there will never be a signal. An average or weak one, or something that contains trends, like what I have shown and backtested 3 times. So this means you'd still have to make a directional bet. There is no escape. Sorry no magic trick to avoid it. A directional bet on the price or on the volatility itself, the trends... Once you make your directional bet, what is the advantage of day trading with a macd strategy over just taking the trade and holding? The power of compounding. Here someone made a backtest on the daily chart for the S&P500, the strategy took 500 trades with a profit factor of 1.2 and returned 95%! Without counting any spread/commissions. And just holding the S&P during the same period returned 151%. Amazing. Then what is it that gets compounded with technical day trading? Easy. Losses & costs. Also causes to miss out when right about the direction. Lots of inconvenients, and no advantages. Sounds amazing. The power of COMPOUNDING™. Ye I'm not sold. There might be a tiny edge but it's just so worthless. Picking pennies... Got to imagine the amount of desperation to make any profit anyone would have to try that. And they'd probably end up losing. Why did I waste my time?
Education
by MrRenev
5
BTCUSD - Follow trend by Keltner Channel 23 Sep 20201. How to use Keltner Channel a_ Length of Keltner's basis line is 50. It gives the best result in finding rule of BTCUSD. b_ How to confirms a trend. - Upper 2 is used to confirm Keltner channel at Uptrend. - Lower 2 is used to confirm Keltner channel at Downtrend. c. How to determine a swing Entry. _ Upper 1 is used to buy when the market make a corrective. _ Lower 1 is used to sell when the market make a corrective. 2. Long signal is confirmed when Closed of candle crossover the Upper 2. 3. Short signal is confirmed when Closed of candle crossunder the Lower 2. 4. Stoploss is calculated by the price closed candle +/- the value of Average true range (length=20 bars) Stoploss = previous Close +/- atr(20)x2 -> To move the stoploss every 1 hour. 5. Filter the Candle is over 93% for Not Entry.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by dinhchien
4
AUDCAD - Day trade signal by Keltner 22 Sep 2020* The signal are tested in 3,5 years. Winrate stability over 52% every year. Risk: 1%. * Tradingview's backtest time ~ 3.5 years/Premium account, differs between currency pairs (Cryto is the default backtest time is shorter because the market is open both Saturday and Sunday: about 2 years) - Base on order: 2 ways to enter or combine both. Method 1 + Keltner channel: the price closed above or below Upper / Lower Keltner for signal 1. Wait for the price to adjust to the Basis line, then enter the order. Method 2 + Keltner channel: price closes above or below Upper 2 / Lower 2 Keltner gives signal 1. Wait for the price to adjust to Upper / Lower line, then enter the order. Method 3: combine both, priority 1 if satisfied conditions + Pivot option: appear rising signal: Higher High / Higher Low. Decline signal: Lower Low / Lower High for signal 2. - When the above conditions are met, the Indicator shows a Buy / Sell signal according to the trend. ----------------------------------- - Stoploss: Calculated from the entry point + - actual fluctuation by the formula ATR (20) * risk ratio (risk). - Profit: Calculated from the entry point of the command + - actual oscillation using ATR formula (20) * reward ratio (reward). - Profit: Look the Summary below. - Should be backtest 3 Years (long term), each Year (medium term) and Quarter or 6 months (short term). If each year the success rate is always more than 50%, can be used for actual trading.
Short
by dinhchien
2
BTCUSD - Day trade by Keltner Channel 21-9-20201. How to use Keltner Channel a_ Length of Keltner's basis line is 50. It gives the best result in finding rule of BTCUSD. b_ How to confirms a trend. - Upper 2 is used to confirm Keltner channel at Uptrend. - Lower 2 is used to confirm Keltner channel at Downtrend. c. How to determine a swing Entry. _ Upper 1 is used to buy when the market make a corrective. _ Lower 1 is used to sell when the market make a corrective. 2. Long signal is confirmed when Closed of candle crossover the Upper 2. 3. Short signal is confirmed when Closed of candle crossunder the Lower 2. 4. Stoploss is calculated by the price closed candle +/- the value of Average true range (length=20 bars) Stoploss = previous Close +/- atr(20)x2 -> To move the stoploss every 1 hour. 5. Filter the Candle is over 93% for Not Entry. -------------- "Use the link below to obtain access to this indicator" or "PM us to obtain access"
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by dinhchien
4