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ROKU

ROKU - 8.72% Potential Profit - Ascending TriangleBe careful - earnings tomorrow. I suggest you wait for earnings to be out to then confirm or dismiss the below theory. Once out, I would place an entry with a Limit order to confirm the breakout. 5-month uptrend with Support confirmed multiple times over the past 5 months. Ascending Triangle formed within, breaking through consolidation with an opportunity to touch a new resistance at Sep19 all-time high. - 5-month uptrend - RSI + Stoch well above 50 - MACD above Signal. Suggested Entry $158.92 Suggested Stop Loss $154.41 Target price $175.43
NASDAQ:ROKULong
by maschera
2
ROKU Bull Flag/Pennant - Breakout to New Highs?I can't believe I'm saying this, Long ROKU through ER. ROKU Bull Flags/Pennant on multiple timescales: 5min 30min 1hr ROKU has bottomed after completing A-B-C corrective wave within a long term bullish trend. ROKU is growing sales >40% y/y in a pandemic -ad sales >50%- while trading at a relatively subdued multiple to peer-metric stocks (sentiment informs multiple/valuation, not fundamentals today - get that in your head bears). After a nice move to breakout from A-B-C downward channel at $136 (without gap retest mind you - a trend that is becoming more and more familiar for those of you who like to inscribe rules into stone and not look at what the market is telling you: PYPL TWLO TSLA (so far) ZS etc) ROKU is in a bull flag, setting up for a move higher powered by earnings - right? ---Before I go on and on about this trade, I feel it best to say thatI am a ROKU bull if you couldn't tell, and the harshness of my tone is specific to this ticker as I feel it has not received proper respect (multiple) in markets relative to how market chooses to value peers. Having some fun with the 800-pound Bear in the room--- So then, Bears -hello Citron- is it lights out for you? I have a bull flag after a corrective 3 wave down which held lows, broke out of down channel, and maintained macro upward trend. GAME OVER BABY - Right? It's setups like these that make me a bit too hesitant. I am essentially betting that ROKU will beat and raise top and bottom line and show strong demand driven by targeted ads with higher CPM due to programmatic nature of platform (quite a mouthful!) - a move ala PINS; the market has it wrong and just you wait for the multiple change when you see the metrics! This is too binary for me, generally. If I don't get a perfect — for whatever reason, oh, you know, perhaps because GDP declined 9% sequentially or GOOGL (ad company to compare it to) just posted first EVER quarter of negative top line growth — then I'm done for. In fact, ROKU displayed exactly this activity during the downtrend channel last year through this year: it sold the -what I perceived to be- good news and looked for any metric to be bearish on. Notably the market has been overall bearish ROKU since IPO and this has been a key battleground stock. I would throw SQ in with that group as well. Battleground stocks are big opportunities and the long term TAM for ROKU as the winner(s) of the CTV market is huge. Hard to be bearish anything other than simply the idea of AMZN competing. What if there was room for a duopoly? So, of course, the question is - is this a bull trap or the end of the battleground? Are we beginning a strong Wave 1 up, are we in the beginning of Wave 3, or are we at the top of Wave 1 and due for corrective Wave 2 before strong Wave 3 to new highs? (Any -forex?- people that can give insight into my narrative would be appreciated. Just completely tear me apart, that's what'd I'd like: through destructive growth births.) Ok so I'll solve for X. I don't care what the reaction is to the downside because I am fundamentally long the company for years, not just for this ridiculously binary trade (which you'll see, I am in for the speculation, of course), I just need to manage risk well enough that I don't get killed in any knee-jerk pullback that was a bull trap (ala ER in February). To manage risk I cut shares of ROKU and am short Sept $150 puts at cost of $14 as replacement for my stock. Then, I bought August $180c for $5 as a speculative leg of the trade. Net credit is $9 with put sell breakeven above $136 (breakout level) and net b/e above $139 (Also am happy to roll down/out put sells if quarter was a dud). Potential gain is $14 on the sells + difference between realize Aug21 price & b/e which is $185. Stock breaking out to new highs would be above $176.55. With the bull flag that is setting up, I would not be surprised to see a gap to this level and run to $200 on a nice print. $210 even seems in the cards on a change of sentiment but again this is highly speculative and not likely, especially considering ROKU's history. If the print is truly a blowout I'll go into the aftermarket and pick back up my shares there. Happy trading all and always manage risk. Managing risk is what makes trades like this possible to me.
NASDAQ:ROKULong
by UnknownUnicorn7308096
2
ROKU EarningsROKU has formed an amazing setup ahead of its ER this week. After a higher run up at the beginning of July, it has consolidated into a great bull flag that looks ready to take off again before and after earnings. Using the length of the flagpole ROKU has a good long term bullish case to reach a new ATH and potential push further towards $195 or even $200. Note that the RSI is slowly reaching that overbought region so it may be due for some further consolidation before hitting those levels. In the meantime, ROKU's ER run up provides a good opportunity to ride the wave up. We know that ROKU can be a fast mover, and I think there is potential for a big single-day gain as it nears earnings, and maybe even after. Remember, however, that playing earnings is even riskier than normal options trading, so be aware of the IV heading into this week.
NASDAQ:ROKULong
by nmatto
1
THE WEEK AHEAD: BYND, ROKU, SQ, ETSY, UBER EARNINGS; GDXJ, SLVEARNINGS: There's a bunch, but here are the ones that interest me most for volatility contraction plays: BYND (46/87/17.2%)*, announcing Tuesday after market close. ROKU (40/84/16.6%), announcing Wednesday after market close. SQ (40/74/13.4%), announcing Wednesday after market close. ETSY (38/74/14.8%), announcing Wednesday after market close. UBER (15/73/11.9%), announcing Thursday after market close. Pictured here is a directionally neutral iron condor in BYND in the September cycle with the shorts camped out at the 21 delta strikes. A 3.26 credit as of Friday's close, it's paying nearly one-third the width of the wings. Naturally, you can go with the August monthly, but this is one that's known to be a mover, so I'd opt to go longer duration for more room to be wrong. For those who prefer naked: the September 18th 106/165 was paying 8.55 at the mid price as of Friday's close, with the August 21st 105/160 (18 delta) paying 5.45. EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS WITH 30-DAY >35%, ORDERED BY RANK, AND SHOWING SEPTEMBER SHORT STRADDLE PRICE AS A PERCENTAGE OF STOCK PRICE: SLV (46/58/15.0%) XLE (26/40/11.5%) GDXJ (22/57/16.0%) GDX (22/46/13.0%) EWZ (20/46/12.4%) XOP (13/53/14.6%) From a buck banging perspective, it's GDXJ (16.0%), followed by SLV (15.0%), and XOP (14.6%) for premium selling. I've already got GDXJ and SLV plays on, so may consider something in XOP if I'm desperate to add to my theta pile. BROAD MARKET: IWM (29/34/9.1%) QQQ (22/27/7.5% EFA (21/23/6.0%) SPY (19/23/6.2%) The volatility was nice ... while it lasted. I may switch over to IWM put selling in the IRA in lieu of SPY given that RUT is where the volatility is at relative to the others. The 16 delta strike nearest 45 days until expiry would be the September 18th 130, paying 2.05. IRA DIVIDEND-GENERATORS: XLU (23/20/5.6%) (3.19% yield) IYR (22/28/7.2%) (3.27% yield) EWA (22/30/8.4%) (3.72% yield) EWZ (20/46/12.4%) (3.17% yield) SPY (19/23/6.2%) (1.75% yield) TLT (17/17/4.3%) (1.64% yield) HYG (15/15/3.0%) (5.00% yield) EMB (11/11/2.9%) (4.22% yield) EWZ (12.4%), followed by EWA (8.4%), then IYR (7.2%). Getting kind of tired of laddering out EWZ, but you go where the volatility's at. * -- For earnings, the August 21st at the money short straddle is used for determining the short straddle/stock price percentage; for everything else, I'm using September.
Editors' picks
NASDAQ:BYND
by NaughtyPines
16
ROKU Analysis Weekly Inverse H&S Breakout Bull Flag Rejection of Demand Zone 2 rejections of 0.786 Fib 144.40 from Dec Lows Resistance at 169.86 Strong Bullish Momentum Daily C&H Bullish Piercing Pattern (Rejection of Fib/Dynamic Support and Demand Zone) Volume Exhaustion Possible ABC Correction Bull Flag 4hr Bullish Rectangle Bullish Engulfing Outside Bar (25% pullback next candle with long wick rejection) Consolidation since 6/13 (RSI dancing around 50) Low Volume Exhaustion Strong Rejections of Dynamic Support at 146.97 Looking for a break of 155 with Momentum before entering Long
NASDAQ:ROKULong
by itsCblast